2012 Season in Review: Arizona Diamondbacks
81-81, 3rd in the NL West
After a somewhat surprising and excellent 2011, the Diamondbacks took a step back in 2012 due to some regression to the mean and regression to the disabled list. The club won half its games, so it wasn’t a disaster, but expectations were moderately high, so it feels like a step back.
Four Dbacks outfielders played 100 games or more and posted starter or better WARs. Chris Young (2.8), Justin Upton (2.5), Gerado Parra (2.0), and Jason Kubel (1.8 so almost) made up a good outfielder, but it looks disappointing because Upton played so far below his ability. Second basemen Aaron Hill (6.2) had a monster year and hit two cycles, so you can’t complain about that. Paul Goldschmidt (3.7) played a good first base and Miguel Montero (5.0) had another great year behind the dish. Really, the left side of the infield is the only really area in need of upgrade on offense.
The starting pitching wasn’t bad either, even if Ian Kennedy (3.1) wasn’t a top line guy again and Daniel Hudson got hurt. Wade Miley (4.6) stepped in nicely and Trevor Cahill (3.4) fit in well. The other two spots in the rotation were trouble as the Snakes mixed and matched with some veterans and youngsters. The bullpen did well enough to keep them relevant.
A .500 team isn’t a great team, but this one has the makings of one. They traded Chris Young and signed Cody Ross. They have Adam Eaton waiting for an outfield spot too. They added some middle infield depth and bullpen reclamation projects this offseason. They dealt top prospect Trevor Bauer in the process, but added fragile yet very good Brandon McCarthy to fill the void not to mention a lot of good starting pitching working its way up the farm system.
The Dbacks didn’t turn heads in 2012, but with some retooling and a couple bounce back seasons, they have a shot to improve in 2013. Unfortunately, there are a number of NL teams on the rise, so that might not be so easy.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 80-82
2012 Season in Review: San Diego Padres
76-86, 4th in the NL West
You might not believe this, but the Padres had a pretty respectable season in 2012. 76 wins isn’t something to pop bubbly over, but the team was far from the pushover farce that they have been in years past and were quite formidable down the stretch.
Chase Headley led the way with an MVP caliber season (7.5 WAR) and he had help from his friends, Cameron Maybin (2.7), Will Venable (2.7), Yasmani Grandal (2.6), Carlos Quentin (2.0), and Yonder Alonso (2.0). A couple other players posted near 2.0 win seasons, so when you look at the Padres offense as a whole; it’s actually not that bad. If you don’t like homeruns (which no one can hit at PETCO), the Padres were a downright…good offense.
The bullpen was pretty good, but the starters struggled to stay on the field. Only two made a full season of starts. Lots of the typical rate statistics put the Padres in the middle of the pack as a pitching staff, but WAR hates them because they get such a boost from their home ballpark.
Your view of their staff depends on how much you want to remove context from the equation, but you can’t call them good by any standard.
The farm is deep in San Diego and with new ownership and TV money, the franchise should be on the way up. They have a nice core of young players to build around and a few impact upgrades could put them right in the thick of contention.
I doubt 2013 will be a playoff year for the Padres, but they could push .500 and take a step toward being a legitimate contender in the near future.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 77-85
2012 Season in Review: Colorado Rockies
64-98, 5th in the NL West
The Rockies were really bad in 2012. Usually I make an attempt at wit in the opening lines of a recap, but that’s all there is to be said. The Rockies were bad.
Their best hitter, Dexter Fowler, posted a 2.9 WAR and Carlos Gonzalez (2.7) and Tyler Colvin (2.7) are the only others above the 2.0 threshold. Granted their best player, Troy Tulowitzki, only played 47 games, so he likely would have made a run at something like a good season. The Rockies get help at home to make their traditional offensive numbers look good, but their batting average dropped from first in baseball at home to 26th in baseball when they went on the road.
Their staff as a whole was 23rd in baseball by WAR, but they were first in embarrassing attempts to limit pitch counts and use an ill-advised four man rotation! Let’s put it this way, their best pitcher by WAR in 2012 was a reliever. Matt Belisle, who was actually good, made 80 relief appearances on his way to a 2.1 WAR. None of their starters topped 1.8.
Yes, it was that bad. They went with a 75 pitch limit for starters no matter what and down to four starters to adjust for how bad they were and of course that made it worse.
Health will improve the Rockies going forward but the team isn’t built very well. With full seasons from their stars, I think the offense is good enough to contend in the NL West, but the pitching is simply too terrible for it to even matter.
It is very hard to get free agent pitchers to go to Colorado and drafting pitching is difficult as well. It only takes a few good luck seasons to get back into contention, but right now, this is easily the worst team in a division that includes the Padres.
It was a dark 2012 for the Rockies and 2013 doesn’t look a lot better. Tulo should be back and I don’t imagine the pitching can get worse, but their also up against some teams on the rise out west who will counteract those gains.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 64-98
2012 Season in Review: Washington Nationals
98-64, 1st in the NL East
Lost in the NLDS to the Cardinals
The Washington Nationals were my team to watch in 2012. I said on The Guy Show in March that they would win the East and go to the World Series. While the second part of the prediction didn’t come through, it was way closer than what most people thought. The Nationals were baseball’s best regular season team and came within an out of the NLCS.
The offense doesn’t jump off the page, but they played well together. Ian Desmond (5.4), Bryce Harper (4.9), and Ryan Zimmerman (4.5) all had great years. Danny Espinosa (3.8) and Adam LaRoche (3.8) were also very good.
The starting pitching was extraordinary as well. Gio Gonzalez (5.4), Stephen Strasburg (4.3), Jordan Zimmermann (3.5), Edwin Jackson (2.7), and Ross Detwiler (1.8) made all but 11 of the teams 162 starts. They also got a lot of great innings out of their bullpen.
The Nationals were in command of Game 5 of the NLCS until they weren’t in the final innings and lost to a little of that Cardinals magic.
But two big stories dominated the Nationals season. First, the Nationals are contenders now. They played well and didn’t go away. Most people will agree that they’re the favorites in the National League again in 2013.
The other story was the Strasburg shutdown, which was a huge controversy all season. I’m on board with the shutdown, but a lot of people thought it cost them. (Look for a post on this next week!)
As the offseason has gone on, the Nats have added Denard Span and Dan Haren, so they should be set to contend again in 2013, but it’s hard not to look back at 2012 and enjoy it. The Nationals brought winning baseball back to DC for the first time in decades, and there’s no sign of slowing down.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 94-68
2012 Season in Review: Atlanta Braves
94-68, 2nd in the NL East, 1st Wild Card
Lost in the Play-In Game
The Braves had a great season after a disappointing end to 2011, and in any other season, would have made the playoffs. Unfortunately, the new rules sent them into a one game playoff against the Cardinals to earn a spot in the postseason. In this game, a very questionable infield fly was called, and their last shot at a rally was killed.
But losing a coin-flip game shouldn’t dampen the success of the 2012 Braves. The Braves outfield of Heyward (6.6), Bourn (6.4), and Prado (5.9) was all-world in WAR and played superb defense. Uggla (3.5), Jones (3.0), Simmons (2.2),Jones (3.0), and played superb defense. Prado at a rally was killed.
a spot in the postseason. In this game, a v McCann (2.0), and Freeman (2.0) showed what a complimentary starting lineup looks like. Every single Braves position player hit the 2.0 starter threshold, and some did so in less than a full season.
The pitching was strong too led by a bonkers-good Kris Medlen (3.9) in the second half. Hudson (2.6), Minor (1.4), and Hanson (1.0) made a full season of starts to varying success, but found good outings from the rest of the piecemeal rotation in Beachy (1.5), Maholm (1.0), and Delgado (1.0).
The bullpen was taking names in 2012 as well. Kimbrel’s 3.6 WAR was an incredible mark for a reliever and the rest of the group posted solid numbers.
In sum, this was a very good club. The offense was great and the starters were solid. The bullpen was lights out. The Braves ran into the poor fortune of having a good season in the first year of a silly new playoff format. They were six games better than the Cardinals during the season but were thrown into a coin flip game to generate fake drama and it cost them. Who knows what would have happened if they had earned a real playoff spot under the old system.
But 2012 was Chipper’s farewell season and most Braves fans will remember that as well. They’ve parted with Bourn and added BJ Upton, so the 2013 Braves should be equally as competitive.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 91-71
2012 Season in Review: Philadelphia Phillies
81-81, 3rd in the NL East
After years atop the NL East, the Phillies stubbed their toe in 2012. Picked by many to head back to the playoffs, they finished the season .500 and failed to make the playoffs for the first time in six seasons.
The disappointment comes in two phases. The offense problems were predictable. Carlos Ruiz (5.5 WAR) had a very strong season behind the plate before his offseason suspension and Jimmy Rollins (4.4) provided a lot of value at short. Chase Utley (3.2) was very good, but only played half a season. Shane Victorino’s 2.2 WAR in 101 games was also a good showing, even if he isn’t the player he used to be.
Other than that, the Phillies didn’t get a lot of great offensive contributions and were very average as a team.
Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels had down-ballot Cy Young Type seasons, but Roy Halladay had an injury plagued campaign. Halladay was a solid starter in 2012, but that’s a far cry from his “best in the game” credentials. Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick, and Joe Blanton combined to fill out the remaining rotation spots and did a respectable job doing so.
Jonathan Papelbon had a good season in the first year of his too-big contract, but the rest of the bullpen struggled. The rotation was top ten, but the bullpen was mediocre.
Collectively, the Phillies were just an average team in a tough division. They played better later on in the season and got some top flight performances from their stars, but not enough to live up to their high expectations.
The rotation is still great heading into 2013 and Ben Revere in center and the-maybe-upgrade of Michael Young at third should give them a boost. Ryan Howard is still a serious problem at first. The corner outfield is still up in the air.
The Phillies should be better in 2013, but they played below their potential in 2012.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 85-77
2012 Season in Review: New York Mets
74-88, 4th in the NL East
The 2012 version of the Metropolitans was very compelling and super exciting into the early summer, but bottomed out as the dog days arrived. They were led by an MVP contender and the NL Cy Young, but the supporting cast wasn’t enough to make the Mets a player in one of the tougher divisions in the sport.
The afore-alluded to Wright (7.8) was worth more WAR than the next four position players combined. Only Ruben Tejada (2.1) and Scott Hairston (2.0) hit the 2.0 starter threshold. Ike Davis gets honorable mention for doing everything right except getting hits. Great power, good patience, but the .227 batting average dragged the whole thing down. He should be better in 2013.
R.A. Dickey had an RA-diculous season and was my (and the BBWAA) pick for Cy Young. Jonathan Niese also had a fine season, but no other pitcher made more than 21 starts. Johan Santana was good, but got hurt. Dillon Gee too. Chris Young was meh, but not bad for a 5th starter. Matt Harvey was eye-popping good, but only made 10 starts after his callup.
The bullpen was, let’s be generous, a weakness.
The Mets had some bright moments this year, especially the first no-hitter in franchise history, courtesy of Mr. Santana, and a wonderful string of dominance by Dickey. Wright signed an extension and Matt Harvey stepped into the spotlight.
The 2012 season shot some life into Mets fans for the first few months and faded down the stretch. I think they’re on their way up. The starting pitching is there.
A Dickey, Niese, Santana, Harvey, and Gee rotation is very good. If Zach Wheeler is ready to be the 1/2 a lot of us think he can be, they Mets could easily have a top five rotation.
They need offense. Wright is a good centerpiece and they have a handful of guys who can really fill out the bottom of a lineup. They need one or two more formidable bats to surround Wright near the top and they could be good to go.
It wasn’t a great year for the Mets, but the future looks bright.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 80-82
2012 Season in Review: Miami Marlins
69-93, 5th in the NL East
Man, it was a bad year to be a Marlins fan. Your ownership and front office lay out a bunch of cash to sign big free agents and your city builds you a new stadium, but then, everything collapses underneath you like the trap door in front of Mr. Burns’ desk at the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant.
Ozzie Guillen said he respected Fidel Castro. The stadium has the ugliest centerfield statue that anyone could imagine. (Read: I literally couldn’t come up with a bigger eyesore if it was my job to design it) The team played bad. The owners traded everyone who made any sort of money for a less than inspiring haul and Giancarlo Stanton has no one to play catch with this year.
Stanton had a great year (5.8 WAR, .290/.361/.608, good defense), and a couple other guys contributed nicely led by Jose Reyes (4.5 WAR and now a Blue Jay), Justin Ruggiano (2.8 WAR, still a Marlin!), and Omar Infante (2.4 WAR, now a Tiger). Everyone else either got traded before they could cross the 2.0 threshold or didn’t produce that much.
Hanley Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, Josh Joshson, Emilio Bonifacio, Infante, Reyes, Heath Bell, Anibal Sanchez, Gaby Sanchez. These were all members of the Marlins core on Opening Day who have been traded since.
A lot of people liked the Marlins to be a contender this year. I didn’t because I saw the Nationals, Braves, and Phillies being too good to overcome, but I didn’t expect the Marlins to only win 69 games. That’s fewer games than the Mets. The Mets!
Josh Johnson had a good year (3.8). Ricky Nolasco (2.7) and Mark Buehrle (2.1) were respectable. Anibal Sanchez (2.3 before the trade) was also very good. The staff was probably good enough. The bullpen probably wasn’t.
The team was just bad. The owners were worse. The fans are the victims. A team on the way up sputtered and the pilots hit the eject button. The 2013 Marlins will be Giancarlo Stanton and a lot of people you’ve never heard of. The statue will still be there.
But there’s no Ozzie, so that’s something.
2012 Grade: What’s worse than an F?
Early 2013 Projection: 66-96
2012 Season in Review: NL Central
Over the last couple weeks, you’ve seen the STT Seasons in Review for each of the six NL Central teams that gave brief overviews of each team’s biggest contributors and how their seasons went. I gave each club a letter grade for 2012 and a rough projection of how I see them stacking up in 2013.
Today, I want to review the division as a whole and paint a broad picture about what it looks like going forward (See you never, Astros!).
This is how things went in 2012:
And here’s how the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds looked from April to October.
The Reds took over by July and the Cardinals pretty much stayed in Wild Card position for most of the season. Each of the Brewers and Pirates made a run at it at different points, but neither could really close the deal. Needless to say, the Cubs and Astros did not really factor into the race.
The NL Central is one of the lesser divisions in the game, but the offense from the Reds, Cards, and Brewers was pretty good. Match that with a Pirates club on the rise and some good pitching from a couple of these teams, and what we really have is a division dragged down by the bottom feeders.
The Reds and Cardinals are good teams. The Brewers are talented but have damaging holes. The Pirates are becoming competitive, but still haven’t become a threat. The Cubs and Astros are a mess. One of these teams is leaving next year, so the division as a whole might get a little better by subtraction.
My bet is that the division will look pretty similar in 2013 when it’s all said and done. Here is my early projection, which is subject to change throughout the offseason:
The key variable here is that these teams have to pick up some wins that normally came at the expense of the Astros in order to keep these win totals up. I guess I’ll have to look at this more closely as I fill in the sheet with the rest of the divisions.
The NL Central MVP goes to Ryan Braun over Yadier Molina and the Cy Young belongs to Johnny Cueto.
Here’s a final summary of the NL Central 2012 Grades and Win totals:
All and all, another fine year in the pitcher-bats-9th Midwestern United States led by the Reds and Cardinals.
2012 Season in Review: Cincinnati Reds
97-65, 1st in the NL Central, Division Champion
Lost in the NLDS to the Giants
It’s hard not to be happy with 97 wins. That’s a lot of wins. The Reds were a great team in 2012 and should be really happy about everything they did except for those last three playoff games where they let the Giants embarrass them.
Joey Votto played 70 percent of the year and posted a 5.9 WAR. His slash line (.337/474/.567) was something out of a video game. Brandon Phillips, Ryan Hanigan, Todd Frazier, Ryan Ludwick, Zack Cozart, and Jay Bruce all posted starter or better WARs while contributing to baseball’s 10th best cohort of position players.
It’s hard to argue with a top five pitching staff either. The original rotation, led by Johnny Cueto, made 161 starts, yielding only a single game to Todd Redmond at the very end of the season. Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey joined Cueto in the original five to form one of the better rotations in the game.
But the bullpen was the story. They posted the second best K/9 rate and the third best FIP in 2012 on the back of fireballer Aroldis Chapman.
The Reds hit well, fielded well enough, and pitched great. That’s a really good formula if you’re trying to win baseball games.
The Reds were a complete team and commanded the soft NL Central for the entire season. They fought off challenges from the Pirates and Cardinals and coasted their way into the postseason. After a strong start on the road in San Francisco, the Reds lost all three home games and called it a season after Game 5 of the NLDS.
It’s hard not to favor the Reds again in 2013 as they return most of their key pieces and look to be moving Chapman to the rotation where he belongs. The Cardinals will have something to say about the Reds’ chance at a repeat division crown, but the Great American Ballpark faithful should clear their schedules for next fall.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 94-68
New English D 