The Morning Edition (May 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zimmermann strikes out 8 and walks none across eight shutout innings as the Nats beat the Braves 2-0
- Red Sox bats rock the Jays as Buchholz dominates again
- Raburn has 4 more hits to power Bauer to his first win despite 6 walks in 5 innings against Cliff Lee
- Feldman K’s 12 in a CG win over the Padres
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ervin Santana looks to keep his early season success going against the Rays (2p Eastern)
- Haren tries to stay on track as Medlen tries to bounce back in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Jake Westbrook’s 0.98 ERA on display against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How series is Bryce Harper’s injury?
Ryan Raburn was always fun to watch in my opinion, even though most Tigers fans didn’t feel that way. He’s up to his old tricks in Cleveland destroying the baseball over the last three days (11 for 13, 4HR). This is his updated line: .364/.407/.655 with a 193 wRC+ and a positive 1.9 UZR which is good for 1.0 WAR in just 16 games. Obviously he won’t keep that up, but Ryan Raburn is basically Babe Ruth so far this season. He’s capable of amazing things and from 2009-2011 was incredible in the 2nd half of the season. He’s doing it early this year. Watch out.
The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
The Morning Edition (April 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Halladay holds the Cardinals to 2 runs in 7 innings in a 8-2 win
- Matt Harvey continues to dominate as he outduels Strasburg in a 7-1 win
- Jean Segura somehow steals first base in a 5-4 win over the Cubs (that was not a typo)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz and Shields face off as the Sox and Jays kick off their series after Friday’s cancellation (1p Eastern)
- Paul Maholm tries to keep his scoreless streak alive against the Bucs (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee and Lance Lynn toe the slab in Philly (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
While I’m repeatedly reminding you that small sample sizes can belie the truth, Matt Harvey is starting to look like one of the NL’s best starters. Certainly we can say he has been one of the best so far this season, but his success looks real and sustainable, even if it won’t be at this level. He looked very good in a handful of starts last season and the stuff is good. Let’s admire his numbers thus far. 4-0, 29IP, 9.93 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.93 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and a 1.0 WAR. That’s pretty good. As I write this, only Wainwright, Darvish, and Lester have higher pitcher WAR. Fun fact, Verlander, Sanchez, and Scherzer are right behind him. I didn’t include Harvey as one of the best pitchers in the NL going into the season, but man, I’m pretty sure I should have. Every five days, The Morning Edition is just going to become the Matt Harvey How’d He Do? Get used to it.
The Morning Edition (April 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Three games were washed out due to inclement weather
- AJ Burnett flirts with a no-hitter enroute to a 5-0 win over the Cardinals at PNC
- Bryce Harper delivers four hits as the Nationals roll the Fish
- Wade Davis leads the Royals to a 1-0 win over the Braves, who lost for the first time in 11 tries
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Cain faces recent criminal Gallardo at Miller Park (1p Eastern)
- Jon Lester looks to stay hot in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright tries to keeps his walk-less streak going against Hamels and the Phillies (7p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Cingrani match up at GABP in a prospect-off (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did Kershaw actually give up homeruns to Everth Cabrera and Chris Denorfia or did I make that up?
AJ Burnett probably had the most interesting night for anyone that didn’t play in the Tigers game (see How Was The Game?) by nearly no-hitting a very good Cardinals lineup. It’s often easy to dismiss Burnett as some sort of headcase due to certain struggles he’s had over the years, but his stuff is really good and he’s had a pretty sneaky good career that is starting to really come full circle in the NL. Harper continues to look great in the early goings with another big game, but the power hitter I have my eye on is Giancarlo Stanton who should be back from his recent injury tomorrow.
The Morning Edition (April 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The joy of a Sox win on Patriot’s Day is marred by tragedy in Boston
- The Nats pound the Marlins behind a CG from Zimmerman
- The Reds survive a tight one against the Phillies
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Barry Zito tries to keep the magic going against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
- Chris Capuano makes his first start in place of Zach Greinke (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will the teams who didn’t play Monday wear #42?
Baseball took a backseat on Monday after attacks killed and wounded many during the Boston Marathon. Our hearts are heavy for those who lost loved ones and who are currently fighting for their lives. Boston isn’t a city that will stay down for long. For today, this Tigers fan says “Go Red Sox.”
The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
- Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
- Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1
What I’m Watching Today:
- Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
- Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?
The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
The Morning Edition (April 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bryce Harper backed a great performance from Stephen Strasburg with 2 HR
- Clayton Kershaw twirled a CGSO and homered
- Justin Upton homered in his Braves debut
- The Brewers and Angels both won in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price begins his Cy Young defense against the O’s in Tampa (3p Eastern)
- The new look Blue Jays begin their season behind R.A. Dickey (7p Eastern)
- Darvish looks to help the Rangers against the undefeated Astros (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What will Hyun-Jin Ryu’s debut look like in LA? (10p Eastern)
It was an exciting Opening Day and today’s abbreviated schedule looks to pact a slightly less forceful punch despite some exciting talent toeing the rubber. I’ll have my eye on the Blue Jays, especially to see if they can get off on the right foot. Check back each and every morning for musings from around the league. As the season gets a little further along, this will become a place for more analysis and debate.
2013 Season Preview: National League Central
The National League Central isn’t a division you think about when you think about powerhouses, but it features a couple really good teams who made it into the playoffs last season.
It wasn’t a big offseason in the Central except for the loss of the Astros. Man, they’re gonna miss those guys!
2013 should be much like 2012, but hey, what do we know. Here’s how STT sees the NL Central shaking out.
[Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking]
5. Chicago Cubs (68-94, 25)
The Cubs are on the right track and their pitching staff isn’t half bad. They’re a year or two away and they have some players worth watching on the north side of Chicago, notably one of my favorites, Anthony Rizzo at first base. With Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer at the helm, the Cubs are heading back to prominence, but it won’t be this year.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83, 19)
The Brewers are a lot of people’s pick to surprise in 2013. They have a pretty good offense, but I can’t get behind their pitching depth and man, the bullpen looks pretty weak. They have one of the game’s best players in Ryan Braun and some other players who could make the Central interestiof the game’y one of my favorites, Anthong if they can produce at career levels. The Brew Crew won’t be embarrassing by any stretch, but I don’t see them contending in a meaningful way.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (82-80, 21)
This is the year! The Pirates are going to finish above .500. They will. Don’t get me wrong, this is a team with a lot of upside, but not a lot of players who are sure to produce. If they can get some life shot into them from the farm system, the Pirates should be good enough to hang on the peripheries of the playoff race before falling off down the stretch again.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards are a really good team with a lot of pitching depth and a well-rounded offense. They also have some sort of deal with a higher power given the way the last two postseasons have gone for them. Even without Chris Carpenter in the fray, they’re still a great team with a lot of good players.
1. Cincinnati Reds (92-70, 6)
If the Cardinals are really good, the Reds are great. They’re average or better everywhere on the field and their rotation was excellent last season and has Aroldis Chapman coming to make it even better. You wonder about the outfield defense with Choo in center, but other than that, this is a team that looks like it could only be stopped by injuries. Plus, have you guys seen Joey Votto. That dude is incredible.
NL Central Cy Young: Adam Wainwright
NL Central MVP: Joey Votto
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Rickie Weeks
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Choo will survive center.
Boldest of the Bold: Anthony Rizzo will finish in the top ten of the MVP race.
2012 Season in Review: NL Central
Over the last couple weeks, you’ve seen the STT Seasons in Review for each of the six NL Central teams that gave brief overviews of each team’s biggest contributors and how their seasons went. I gave each club a letter grade for 2012 and a rough projection of how I see them stacking up in 2013.
Today, I want to review the division as a whole and paint a broad picture about what it looks like going forward (See you never, Astros!).
This is how things went in 2012:
And here’s how the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds looked from April to October.
The Reds took over by July and the Cardinals pretty much stayed in Wild Card position for most of the season. Each of the Brewers and Pirates made a run at it at different points, but neither could really close the deal. Needless to say, the Cubs and Astros did not really factor into the race.
The NL Central is one of the lesser divisions in the game, but the offense from the Reds, Cards, and Brewers was pretty good. Match that with a Pirates club on the rise and some good pitching from a couple of these teams, and what we really have is a division dragged down by the bottom feeders.
The Reds and Cardinals are good teams. The Brewers are talented but have damaging holes. The Pirates are becoming competitive, but still haven’t become a threat. The Cubs and Astros are a mess. One of these teams is leaving next year, so the division as a whole might get a little better by subtraction.
My bet is that the division will look pretty similar in 2013 when it’s all said and done. Here is my early projection, which is subject to change throughout the offseason:
The key variable here is that these teams have to pick up some wins that normally came at the expense of the Astros in order to keep these win totals up. I guess I’ll have to look at this more closely as I fill in the sheet with the rest of the divisions.
The NL Central MVP goes to Ryan Braun over Yadier Molina and the Cy Young belongs to Johnny Cueto.
Here’s a final summary of the NL Central 2012 Grades and Win totals:
All and all, another fine year in the pitcher-bats-9th Midwestern United States led by the Reds and Cardinals.
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