The Morning Edition (June 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners and White Sox take a 0-0 game into the 14th, each score 5, but the Sox win it in 16
- CarGo hits 3 HR and Tulo hits 2 HR as the Rockies smash the Reds
- Byrd homers twice to back a solid outing by Gee over the Nats
- Dickey helps his own cause at the plate and nearly misses a CGSO
- Hamels finally looks like Hamels, striking out 11 Marlins
- Sabathia gives up 4, but gets the CG win against the Indians
- Teheran nearly no-hits the Pirates
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Holland duel in Boston (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Dbacks, looks to earn Appointment Television title in the process (8p Eastern)
- Greinke tries to straighten out against the Braves (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will populate the top picks in today’s draft?
While there is plenty of exciting baseball on today, the MLB Draft will take center stage for most die hard fans. Unlike the NFL Draft, the MLB version doesn’t turn itself into an entire season in and of itself, but rather calls attention to itself in more subtle and sophisticated ways. Only a handful of mock drafts are done and only the first two rounds get airtime. A few names to know for the first pick are Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Kris Bryant, and Colin Moran, but it still remains unclear as to who the Astros will take first overall. I’m hoping for the Tar Heel, Moran, not because he’s the best, but because I’m a grad student at UNC and am hoping he drops several hundred dollars on his way back from signing the contract. If you’re new to the process, the key difference between the MLB Draft and others is that MLB teams are always drafting the best player available and do not focus on their current positional needs. NFL picks are expected to contribute right away, but MLB picks go through a seasoning process. For example, the Tigers will take a 3B with their pick if he’s the best player left even though they have a big of a logjam at the position. If you’re looking for a primer on the top picks, I suggest Mark Anderson’s work at BPN:
The Morning Edition (June 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Boston beats Texas 17-5, but David Murphy (the OF) pitches a scoreless inning
- The Braves walk off in extras against the Pirates
- Zimmermann is sharp and the Nats rally in the 9th to win
- Mayberry Jr. walks off in grand style against the Fish
- Both Wacha and Skaggs struggle as the Cards and Dbacks go down to the wire
- The Mariners bounce Peavy early
What I’m Watching Today:
- Turner and Hamels at Citizens’ Bank (1p Eastern)
- Garza faces the Angels (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Padres at home (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we make of last night’s steroid story?
The big story last night was that MLB has acquired the cooperation of fake doctor/steroid peddler Tony Bosch and will attempt to use his testimony to suspend up to 20 MLB players who appear on documents relating to Bosch’s Miami clinic, including Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun.
Now I’m not condoning cheating, but I do question the way this investigation is being handled. I think a failed test that holds up to the scrutiny of the review process should land players on the suspended list, but the evidence that is publicly available on this clinic is not very convincing. If MLB is going to base suspensions on Bosch’s word and some hand written notes, that isn’t okay. Most of these players haven’t failed a test and the ones who have failed a test have already served a suspension. I’m all for strict testing and harsh punishments, but I don’t think the evidence is very compelling. Additionally, this is not really news. MLB has been trying to suspend these guys from the start. The only new information is that Bosch is now cooperating, but the headlines focused on the desire to suspend. This is definitely a case of the media (ESPN in particular) making more out of a story than they should. A big steroid suspension is big news, but that isn’t what we got last night. We got “MLB is working to suspend them.” Sorry guys, wake me when something is happening. Let’s focus on the MLB draft and ASG and regular season until something actually happens.
The Morning Edition (June 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Molina and Beltran homer to back Lynn against the Snakes
- Medlen shines as Burnett stumbles
- Arroyo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rox
- Kendrick hits a 3B and goes the distance to beat the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Mets in DC (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Sanchez in Detroit (7p Eastern)
- Skaggs and Wacha make prospect hounds drool in STL (8p Eastern)
- Peavy and Felix out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should the All-Star Game be?
Someone on Twitter asked Keith Law if Matt Carpenter should be an All-Star, which Law disagreed with because
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/341747971655872512
I’m curious what other people think, but I like when the All-Star game features a mix of star players and lesser known guys having good opening months. I understand his argument is that MLB wants to showcase the stars to expand the popularity of the sport, but I think national media events should be a time for the sport to turn its unsung players into stars. I don’t like when ESPN and Fox only talk about Jeter and Sabathia and Big Papi. National forums should be a chance to put guys like Matt Carpenter (2.5 WAR) and Josh Donaldson (2.6 WAR) on display. “Hey look, here are some guys you might not get a chance to see a lot who are playing great!” I like that aspect of it. The game will have Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, but I think it should also have the unknowns because it should be a game for die hard fans as well as casual fans who often use the word “boring” to describe baseball.
The Morning Edition (June 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jeremy Bonderman’s return doesn’t go well, gives up 7 ER in 4.2 to the Twins
- The Angels lose their 3rd straight to the Astros fall to 25-32
- Darvish narrowly outduels Santana, but has to sweat as his bullpen nearly costs them
- The Dbacks back Corbin’s 9th W
- Lee Ks 11 in 7.2 innings to beat the Crew
- Dusty waits to use his closer and it costs him a win against the Pirates
- The Fish hit Harvey and sweep the Mets
- The Rays rough up the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Masterson vs Pettitte in NY (7p Eastern)
- Burnett and Medlen face off in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Under the radar Cahill and Lynn draw each other at Busch (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Puig do in his MLB debut?
If you follow me on Twitter or were an early regular at New English D, you know I was very invested in Jeremy Bonderman’s comeback today. It didn’t go well. Because the Tigers were in Baltimore I had to have the Tigers on the radio, which gave me a chance to watch Bonderman on television. He had a fastball from 89-92 and a good slider at times, and he struck out the first batter he faced and delivered a 1-2-3 first inning. If you followed his career as a Tiger, you know the first inning gave him nightmares. But from there it unraveled as he allowed 3 runs in the 2nd and 2 runs in each of the 4th and 5th innings before being removed from the game. He struck out just one batter. He actually kept the ball down and had decent movement on his pitches, but without a good offspeed pitch, it’s hard to be successful as a starter if you don’t have a big fastball. It sounds like he’ll get another shot in five days, but if nothing else, he made it back to the big leagues. I’ll always be rooting for him even if he doesn’t have much left. He has something left.
The Morning Edition (June 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Ubaldo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rays
- The Twins walk off on the Mariners
- Miller throws 7 scoreless, Wainwright goes the distance and allows one run as the Cards sweep the Giants in a DH
- Oakland literally walks off against the Sox
- Rockies walk off on the Dodgers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Marlins, expect strikeouts (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee goes against the Crew (130p Eastern)
- Jeremy Bonderman is back on an MLB mound against the Twins (2p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Darvish toes the slab against the Royals (3p Eastern)
- Buchholz and Kuroda in NY (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Does playing a different position really affect you at the plate?
You may have heard recently that Mike Trout is crushing at the plate again after his early season slump because he’s back in CF while Bourjos is on the DL. I’ve got to say, this is silly. Very. I could buy the argument if he was struggling when playing a more difficult position. For example, if you move from 1B to 3B and struggle at the plate because you have to work on your defense, that could make sense. But Trout was moving to an easier spot, why would that affect him? It wouldn’t. He’s a world class 21 year old athlete coming off a crazy good season. It’s nonsense to think he was affected at the plate by a position change that put him in a spot that was too easy. Ken Rosenthal has led the way on this topic and points to this split:
Trout 2013 as LF:.247/.327/.412
Trout 2013 as CF: .324/.400/.632
But that’s normal variation. Rosenthal and others just saw it and went for it as something to write about to gin up controversy. Here’s how I know:
Trout 2012 as LF: .326/.395/.645
Trout 2012 as CF: .329/.404/.542
If Trout was affected psychologically by playing out of position, why didn’t affect him last season? This is random noise in his production over the course of the season that happened to correlate with a teammates injury. Want better evidence?
Trout 2013 in Odd Numbered Games: .401 OBP
Trout 2013 in Even Numbered Games: .339 OBP
Look, Mike Trout is better during odd numbered games. The Angels should sit him today. Give me a break.
The Morning Edition (June 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland and the Rangers pile on the Royals
- Strasburg leaves with an oblique injury, but the Nats manage to win 3-2
- Jacob Turner goes 7 strong to beat the Mets
- Another rough outing for Hamels as the Phils fall to the Crew
- Cueto throws 8 scoreless to beat the Bucs
- Sabathia gets 10 K to beat the Sox
- Another good start by Garza beats the Dbacks
- Bartolo Colon CGSO
- Rays and Indians start late in Cleveland
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Miller try again in St. Louis (1p Eastern)
- Greinke travels to Coors 4p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Wainwright in game two (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Chris Davis, are you buying or selling?
I’ve remained cautiously skeptical of the Davis breakout, as one should. Entering 2013, he was a career .258/.310/.466 hitter, which is perfectly league average 100 wRC+. Career 6.5 BB%, 31.0 K%. Barely above replacement level. This year, he’s .356/.442/.749, good for 209 wRC+. Everyone wants to believe, but I can’t. He’s never done anything like this and I just don’t think he’s changed his approach enough to sustain star level performance. The power is real, but I don’t buy the average and walk rate. I don’t usually like to be the negative guy, but here we are. Valverde nights will do that to you.
The Morning Edition (May 31, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Freddy Garcia dominates the Nats
- Dillon Gee’s 12 K lead the Mets to a four game sweep of the Yankees
- Kazmir goes 7 strong behind a 7 run inning to beat the Reds
- Felix dominates the Padres as Ryan, Chavez, Franklin, and Morales all homer
- Travis Wood hits a grand slam and gets the win over the White Sox
- Wacha goes 7, gives up 2 hits in his MLB debut and gets a ND
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and CC faces off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Kluber go head to head in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner makes his 2013 debut (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Cain and Miller in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw at Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are the Cardinals wizards?
Yesterday, I wrote about teams who do a good job scoring from 2B on a single and today I’m going to look at a nearly opposite concept. Which teams make the most outs on the bases? Specifically, which teams make the most outs at 3B and home on the bases? I isolate those two categories because I think it makes for a good third base coach ranking. Third base coaches signal if a runner should advance to third or home on a play, but runners usually make the choice about second. So here, without much more ado, are the teams that have made the most outs on the bases at 3B and home entering Thursday (listed by raw number, but also shown with percentage of their total outs on the bases):
I haven’t spent enough time with these numbers to really know if it reflects the quality of the team’s third base coach, but I suspect it does. The coach can’t make his runners faster, but he can know which players are capable of taking the extra base and only telling them to advance. They don’t always listen, but a good third base coach should be able to make them. Seattle makes the highest percentage of their baserunning outs at 3B and home, so their coach could probably do more to help. Ideally, you would want to have all zeroes on this board, but the columns showing 3B and home are categories in which the coach plays a role and should therefore be judged. I’ll be thinking about this more and working on a way to further isolate this going forward. If you have suggestions, let me know.
The Morning Edition (May 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Baltimore’s 6 run 7th tops Zimmerman’s 3 HR night
- The Mets beat the Yanks with 5 in the first, but Nova delivers an immaculate inning
- Navarro homers 3 times as the Cubs beat the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix goes at Petco (330p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Michael Wacha makes his MLB debut for the Cards
The Big Question:
- Has the Cardinals draft team been tested for PEDs?
I spend some time checking into various baserunning numbers and threw several tweets out regarding those numbers (you can read them if you look to the right of this page) and I made this handy graph comparing how often a team scores from second base on a single:
You can see 60% is about average and the Mets lead the way with 79%, but look at those Astros. My, my those Astros. 39%.
The Morning Edition (May 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mets rally late to back a strong outing by Niese against the Yanks
- Samardzija drops a CGSO against the cross town Sox
- Aaron Harang also provides a CGSO against San Diego
- Skaggs is sharp at the front of a doubleheader
- Wainwright goes 8 to beat Shields and the Royals 6-3
- Gomez homers twice, but the Crew lose to the Twins
- The Astros walk off in 12 versus the Rockies
- Votto’s 8th inning homer leads the Reds over the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gausman takes his second turn, gets the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Yankees for the first time (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee comes to Boston (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale tries to take one from the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is the new schedule dulling interleague play?
Danny Knobler at CBS wrote yesterday how little buzz there is for this week’s big interleague matchups and I’m in total agreement. Interleague play, which is the scorn of my father’s generation, used to feel special for me. It would be fun to spend a couple weeks watching players from the NL that I usually didn’t get to watch up close. Now, those teams are sprinkled into the normal schedule after nearly 20 years of being confined to a fortnight or so in June. The novelty has really lost its luster. It feels strange and awkward and forced. It’s either time to add two more teams and dump interleague play or get rid of the pretense all together and play all 29 clubs.
The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
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