The Morning Edition (April 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Halladay holds the Cardinals to 2 runs in 7 innings in a 8-2 win
- Matt Harvey continues to dominate as he outduels Strasburg in a 7-1 win
- Jean Segura somehow steals first base in a 5-4 win over the Cubs (that was not a typo)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz and Shields face off as the Sox and Jays kick off their series after Friday’s cancellation (1p Eastern)
- Paul Maholm tries to keep his scoreless streak alive against the Bucs (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee and Lance Lynn toe the slab in Philly (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
While I’m repeatedly reminding you that small sample sizes can belie the truth, Matt Harvey is starting to look like one of the NL’s best starters. Certainly we can say he has been one of the best so far this season, but his success looks real and sustainable, even if it won’t be at this level. He looked very good in a handful of starts last season and the stuff is good. Let’s admire his numbers thus far. 4-0, 29IP, 9.93 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.93 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and a 1.0 WAR. That’s pretty good. As I write this, only Wainwright, Darvish, and Lester have higher pitcher WAR. Fun fact, Verlander, Sanchez, and Scherzer are right behind him. I didn’t include Harvey as one of the best pitchers in the NL going into the season, but man, I’m pretty sure I should have. Every five days, The Morning Edition is just going to become the Matt Harvey How’d He Do? Get used to it.
The Morning Edition (April 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Phillies and Reds remain tied in the 9th inning as play was suspended with the score 0-0
- In a wonderful display of patriotism, Yankee Stadium plays “Sweet Caroline” between innings of a 4-2 win
- Braves hit five homeruns and improve to 12-1 on the season
What I’m Watching Today:
- Justin Masterson takes on the Red Sox in Cleveland looking to build on strong start (7p Eastern)
- Cards’ rookie Shelby Miller takes the hill against AJ Burnett and the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- The brilliant and wild Matt Moore takes on the O’s (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw is pitching (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer face off in the battle for the soul of Fangraphs (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s the record for most games ahead of 2nd place for a team through 13 games? Braves have to be close. 4.5 ahead of the Mets and Nats as I write this.
Of note on Tuesday was hearing “Sweet Caroline” at Yankee Stadium in honor of those affected by the tragedy in Boston. That’s a relatively powerful statement of solidarity that should bring fear to the hearts of those responsible. Additionally, the Braves won a baseball game, which should not surprise us at this point. They’re 12-1 over their first 13 games but the only offensive star who is producing is Justin Upton. The other guys who are contributing are names like Evan Gattis, Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco, and, I kid you not, Ramiro Pena. Uggla, Simmons, Heyward, and the elder Upton are all struggling. The NL East should shudder at the thought of a Braves team in which all of those players are performing even reasonably well. I would also like to point out Edwin Jackson’s stat line for the season because it is just ridiculous. He’s 0-2 in 3 starts over 16.1 innings and has a 6.06 ERA which sounds awful. But he has an 11.02 K/9, 5.51 BB/9, and .260 FIP. Early season numbers mean very little, but that’s just silly. That’s a technical term, silly.
The Morning Edition (April 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clay Buchholz makes a run at his second no-hitter in a 5-0 win over the Rays
- The Braves complete a sweep of the Nats with a 9-0 win
- Halladay goes 8, gives up 1 run in a 2-1 win over the Marlins
- The Giants outslug the Cubs in 10, win 10-7
What I’m Watching Today:
- MLB celebrates Jackie Robinson day
- Rays and Sox play a morning game on Patriot’s Day in Boston (11a Eastern)
- Cliff Lee looks to stay sharp against the Reds (7p Eastern)
- The Padres and Dodgers meet just three days after Quentin injures Greinke, but Quentin will begin serving his suspension and won’t be in the lineup (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will stand out on a day meant to honor the great #42?
Roy Halladay pitched deep into the game in Miami yesterday, temporarily quieting the whispers, but it was against one of the worst teams in the league, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. After two rough starts to get the season going, Halladay was much closer to his old self and should get a chance to fully correct his recent woes. The other big story on Sunday was the Braves completing a 3 games sweep of division rival Washington, who most, including the author, believe to be the best team in the league. Certainly one series doesn’t change my opinion of the clubs, but the Braves have played very well out of the gate and are putting early distance between themselves and the Nats. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, but every game is going to count and I’d rather be ahead than behind after two weeks.
Ahead today is the Padres and Dodgers game that will feature neither of the principals from last Thursday’s melee, but it should feature some tempers. I doubt we’ll see any beanballs given the cost of escalating the conflict further, but I expect the Dodger faithful will have something to say to the Padres as they take the field. Vin Scully will be on the mic at 10pm, try not to miss it.
It’s too early to make meaningful statistical arguments about performance, but Justin Upton and Prince Fielder are leading the MVP races over the first two weeks. In 12 games, Upton has 7 HR, a .348/.415/.891 slash line, and a 242 wRC+, good for 1.1 WAR. Fielder only has 4 HR, but his .429/.527/.833 line and 250 wRC+ are no less impressive alongside his 1.0 WAR. Like I said, it’s too early for these numbers to be predictive of anything, but both players have sustained the performances long enough to consider them noteworthy and impressive in their own rights. Many players are having good fortnights, but these two are leading the way.
Pitchingwise, it’s a bit more difficult to separate the players, but Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, and Harvey would be the arms I’d point to as the early year standouts. It’s too early to make much of it, but they, among others, have been the most fun to watch in the early goings.
The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
- Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
- Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
- Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
- Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
- Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?
So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.
The Morning Edition (April 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zach Greinke breaks his collarbone after a Carlos Quentin charges the mound after being hit by a pitch
- The Giants come back from being down 5-0 to beat the Cubs at Wrigley 7-6
- Felix gives up 10 hits enroute to a loss against the Rangers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jon Niese and the Mets meet old division foe Vance Worley at Target Field (8p Eastern)
- The Blue Jays face the Royals in a battle of AL makeovers (8p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for appointment viewing against the Dbacks (940p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish faces the struggling Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Clayton Kershaw making a bid to unseat Verlander as baseball’s best starter?
Thursday brought us an abbreviated MLB schedule with just eight games (one of which was rained out) and resulted in MLB Network filling unaccounted for air time with a rerun of Intentional Talk hosted by Chris Rose and Kevin Millar. This leads me to my only idle musing for the day: how good does a network have to be for IT to be its worst program? That’s insane. It’s a solid show, but it’s their worst show. MLB Now, MLB Tonight, Quick Pitch, Clubhouse Confidential, The Rundown, etc are all the best in their class as far as sports programming goes. It’s no wonder they win so many Emmys.
I haven’t heard the timeline on the Greinke injury, but it’s a blow to the Dodgers who were counting on him to pitch at ace levels this season. It will probably only cost them a couple games in the standings in total due to the time he misses, but I would be concerned about how the injury might affect his delivery when he returns give its location. We should know more later today that will help clear up those questions.
Finally, 42 opens today nationwide. I’m looking forward to seeing Jackie Robinson immortalized further on the silver screen and am excited for young and casual fans to get a glimpse into one of the great baseball players of all time, who just happens to double as one of the most pivotal figures of the 20th century. But no pressure on the actors. I plan to review the film sometime in the next week or two.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
2013 Season Preview: National League Central
The National League Central isn’t a division you think about when you think about powerhouses, but it features a couple really good teams who made it into the playoffs last season.
It wasn’t a big offseason in the Central except for the loss of the Astros. Man, they’re gonna miss those guys!
2013 should be much like 2012, but hey, what do we know. Here’s how STT sees the NL Central shaking out.
[Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking]
5. Chicago Cubs (68-94, 25)
The Cubs are on the right track and their pitching staff isn’t half bad. They’re a year or two away and they have some players worth watching on the north side of Chicago, notably one of my favorites, Anthony Rizzo at first base. With Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer at the helm, the Cubs are heading back to prominence, but it won’t be this year.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83, 19)
The Brewers are a lot of people’s pick to surprise in 2013. They have a pretty good offense, but I can’t get behind their pitching depth and man, the bullpen looks pretty weak. They have one of the game’s best players in Ryan Braun and some other players who could make the Central interestiof the game’y one of my favorites, Anthong if they can produce at career levels. The Brew Crew won’t be embarrassing by any stretch, but I don’t see them contending in a meaningful way.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (82-80, 21)
This is the year! The Pirates are going to finish above .500. They will. Don’t get me wrong, this is a team with a lot of upside, but not a lot of players who are sure to produce. If they can get some life shot into them from the farm system, the Pirates should be good enough to hang on the peripheries of the playoff race before falling off down the stretch again.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards are a really good team with a lot of pitching depth and a well-rounded offense. They also have some sort of deal with a higher power given the way the last two postseasons have gone for them. Even without Chris Carpenter in the fray, they’re still a great team with a lot of good players.
1. Cincinnati Reds (92-70, 6)
If the Cardinals are really good, the Reds are great. They’re average or better everywhere on the field and their rotation was excellent last season and has Aroldis Chapman coming to make it even better. You wonder about the outfield defense with Choo in center, but other than that, this is a team that looks like it could only be stopped by injuries. Plus, have you guys seen Joey Votto. That dude is incredible.
NL Central Cy Young: Adam Wainwright
NL Central MVP: Joey Votto
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Rickie Weeks
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Choo will survive center.
Boldest of the Bold: Anthony Rizzo will finish in the top ten of the MVP race.
Catching Up on All the Moves in Baseball
Last weekend, I had the nerve to go on my honeymoon and missed writing about a lot of baseball trades and signings. To atone for such indiscretions, here’s a post about everything I missed while I was following my wife around the Wizarding World of Harry Potter.
Blue Jays acquire R.A. Dickey from the Mets, Sign Him to an Extension
This deal also included Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas in exchange for John Buck, Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Becerra. The Dickey extension is for two additional seasons and $25 million with a club option for 2016.
This is a very solid deal for the Mets in my book as they deal one year of Dickey plus two less than glamorous pieces for some prospects with really high upsides. d’Arnaud isn’t a sure thing, but he’s a top 10 prospect in baseball who can provide legitimate offense from behind the plate, and the other prospects are also potential contributors in the future. I’m not going to break down each of these guys at length, but the value is good for the Mets.
The Jays gave up a lot, but they also got a lot in return. Thole and Nickeas will be useful, but Dickey could be a difference maker. Over the last three seasons he’s been a great starter and capped it off with a Cy Young this season. He’s old and a knuckleballer, but he’s very effective. He’ll make just $5 million in 2013, so he’s a steal. If he maintains similar levels over the course of the extension, the $12 million per season price tag is a steal. If you buy him as someone who can maintain this level of performance, his 4+ WAR levels are worth about twice what he’ll make over the course of this deal.
The Blue Jays paid a premium for his services via trade, but they are right on the cusp of contention. With the addition of Melky Cabrera, Maizer Iztruis, and most of the Miami Marlins, the Blue Jays are easily within a couple wins of a division title and Dickey could make that difference. We’re not great at predicting baseball down to the precise win totals of a team, but we do have a good idea of about where the Blue Jays will fall in 2013 and we think that will be near a spot in the standings where a couple wins could make a big difference.
Grade (Mets): B+, Grade (Jays): B+
Astros Sign Carlos Pena, 1 year, $2.9 million plus incentives
Pena hits for a low average. He walks and hits homeruns. He’s solid on defense at first. While that makes him a below average player, it makes him like the second best Astro. Houston moves to the AL this season so Pena will largely play the role of DH at Minute Maid Park and should see some time at first.
In context this is a great move, even if it isn’t much of anything on a large scale. Pena should provide some offense for a bad team and they’ll get that offense at likely below market value because he has such a low batting average. Any true contender would have trouble selling a .190 hitter to their fan base, but the Astros don’t have that problem. This should pay off, even if it’s the difference between 67 wins and 69.
Grade: B
Cubs Sign Edwin Jackson, 4 years, $52 million
Edwin Jackson is 29 years old. He has made 31 or more starts in seven straight seasons. In the last six seasons, he’s thrown 183 innings or more each year with an ERA at 4.42 or below. Decent strikeout numbers, a few too many walks.
He’s not great, but he’s been close to a 4 WAR pitcher three of the last four seasons and close to a 3 WAR pitcher in the other. He’s pretty good. If you want him to be your ace, that’s a problem. But he’s better than average. If we figure over the next four seasons that he’ll be somewhere between 2 and 4 WAR, we’d offer him $10-$25 million per season depending on inflationary projections.
Obviously the $25 million is at the very high end and you don’t offer contracts with inflation built in. The Cubs have him for $13 million a year. At that rate, he needs to be worth 2 to 3 wins if there is no inflation (and there will be). He’s hasn’t been worth less than 2 WAR since 2008.
This is a good deal for the Cubs because most people seem to undervalue Jackson because he performs worse than we think he should given the quality of his raw stuff. He feels like he should be a #2, but he’s really been more of a #3 type guy and his ERA tends to look a little bloated at times. If you check the FIP, he looks better.
If he’s the same guy over the next four seasons minus a little aging as he has been for the last four, this deal will work out for the Cubs.
Grade: B
Rangers Sign A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $7.5 million
The Rangers lost out on Greinke, Hamilton, Upton, and pretty much everyone else they’ve wanted in the last twelve months. But gosh darn it, they got A.J.
Former White Sox, jerkish personality aside, this should be a good fit for the Rangers. He’s a durable lefthanded hitting catcher who hits for power. That’s not an easy thing to find. He doesn’t walk, but he rarely strikesout. The defense is suspect at times, but he’s usually commended for his ability to lead staffs.
He’s going to be somewhere between 1 and 3 WAR, just like he has been his whole career, in 2013. If he hits for a lot of power, look toward the high end. If he doesn’t, expect the low end. He’s durable and respectable at the plate. For $7.5 million, you’re only asking him to be better than 1 WAR for it to payoff and he should be able to handle that.
Grade: B+
Brief Thoughts on Minor Moves
Phillies sign Mike Adams: Too long for a reliever, but should help.
Red Sox sign Stephen Drew: One year deals are low risk. Should be a good stop gap with some upside and they have the money to spend.
Rays sign the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona: No bad one year deals and the Rays are good at turning these guys into valuable pieces. Can’t hate it.
Marlins sign Placido Polanco: Past his prime and injury prone. In his heyday, he was a master. Now, he might be more of a bench player than a starter. But the Marlins are terrible, so it’s a decent move.
Pirates sign Francisco Liriano: At 2 years and $14 million, there is some risk he’s terrible and they’re out a non-trivial amount of money. But the Pirates need to thicken up their rotation and he could be useful in the pen if it comes to that. I wouldn’t love this deal, but the dollar value is low enough that it could really be a steal if he finds his form for just one of the seasons.
That should get you caught up on the happenings around the league and I have no plans to walk around theme parks for quite some time. We’re less than two months from pitchers and catchers and we’ll have coverage of everything that happens.
2012 Season in Review: NL Central
Over the last couple weeks, you’ve seen the STT Seasons in Review for each of the six NL Central teams that gave brief overviews of each team’s biggest contributors and how their seasons went. I gave each club a letter grade for 2012 and a rough projection of how I see them stacking up in 2013.
Today, I want to review the division as a whole and paint a broad picture about what it looks like going forward (See you never, Astros!).
This is how things went in 2012:
And here’s how the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds looked from April to October.
The Reds took over by July and the Cardinals pretty much stayed in Wild Card position for most of the season. Each of the Brewers and Pirates made a run at it at different points, but neither could really close the deal. Needless to say, the Cubs and Astros did not really factor into the race.
The NL Central is one of the lesser divisions in the game, but the offense from the Reds, Cards, and Brewers was pretty good. Match that with a Pirates club on the rise and some good pitching from a couple of these teams, and what we really have is a division dragged down by the bottom feeders.
The Reds and Cardinals are good teams. The Brewers are talented but have damaging holes. The Pirates are becoming competitive, but still haven’t become a threat. The Cubs and Astros are a mess. One of these teams is leaving next year, so the division as a whole might get a little better by subtraction.
My bet is that the division will look pretty similar in 2013 when it’s all said and done. Here is my early projection, which is subject to change throughout the offseason:
The key variable here is that these teams have to pick up some wins that normally came at the expense of the Astros in order to keep these win totals up. I guess I’ll have to look at this more closely as I fill in the sheet with the rest of the divisions.
The NL Central MVP goes to Ryan Braun over Yadier Molina and the Cy Young belongs to Johnny Cueto.
Here’s a final summary of the NL Central 2012 Grades and Win totals:
All and all, another fine year in the pitcher-bats-9th Midwestern United States led by the Reds and Cardinals.
Haren for Marmol? Um…what?
Baseball was having fun with us yesterday. Yesterday afternoon reports broke that the Angels traded RHP Dan Haren to the Cubs for RHP Carlos Marmol. My verbatim reaction on Twitter was “Um…what?”
Haren, coming off a down year in 2012, had posted seven straight 4.0 WAR seasons before that and was owed $15 million for 2013. Marmol is due $10 million next season and is coming off two poor seasons and has a career walk rate of over 6.00 per 9.
Let’s assume that this trade played out as reported and the Cubs backed out at the last minute. The Angels preferred saving $5 million and adding Marmol over Haren to saving $12 million (because Haren is owed a buyout) and not getting Marmol.
Again, um what? What the what?
That is crazy. Again, according to reports, THE CUBS PULLED OUT. The Cubs were getting a number 3 or 4 starter at worst and a number 1 or 2 at best for a $5 million price that included not having to have Carlos Marmol on your team and said no.
So the Angels proposed a stupid trade and the Cubs said no. Baseball was having some fun with us. The Cubs probably figured that the Angels would decline Haren’s option (which they did last night) and could perhaps sign him for less annual value if they waited until Free Agency opens today. They’re gambling that Haren will sign with them for less than $15 million AAV, which is probably around what he’ll sign for.
But that scenario still leaves them paying $10 million to Marmol in 2013 and doesn’t guarantee them Haren.
I can’t see an explanation here that makes any sense other than that the reports we heard we simply wrong. I guess both teams could be stupid, but what are the odds that neither team in this situation was like… “wait a second…?”
Either way, Dan Haren is a Free Agent allowed to sign with any club. The Angels have money to throw at Greinke and the Cubs might get a shot to pay him a little less (maybe).
As teams start negotiating, Haren will be one of the more coveted players after Greinke, Josh Hamilton, Anibal Sanchez, BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, and maybe a couple others. He is entering his age 32 season and is coming off a down season, but if you’re willing to bet on a bounce back, Haren could be one of the best values this offseason.
The Cubs will be in the picture along with the Yankees and Red Sox according to reports. I’m sure other clubs are in the mix, but those are the names that are out there. To me, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Brewers, and Dodgers should be interested.
As Free Agency gets going, we’ll have full coverage and baseball will hopefully continue to have fun with us.
New English D 