The Morning Edition (May 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners blow two saves and the Indians only blow one in a wild one in Cleveland
- Dickey beats Odorizzi north of the border
- Hamels Ks 10 and walks none in a losing effort
- The White Sox get to Lester in Chicago
- Kershaw goes the distance, allows just one run against the Brewers
- Corbin dazzles at Coors with a CG, 10 Ks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza makes his season debut against the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb goes for the Rays in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Darvish welcomes the A’s to Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Wainwright comes to Petco (10p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Cain face off at the bay (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- When do we start to notice Partick Corbin?
As I write this, Patrick Corbin is plowing through the 7th inning in Colorado and hasn’t allowed a run and has surrendered just a single hit (He finished with a CG, 3 H, 1 R, 10 K line). Entering the night, he was 6-0, 53.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR and those numbers are going to get better. Granted, this level isn’t sustainable, but he’s pretty good and is throwing a gem in one of the hardest places to pitch. Also, Clayton Kershaw, just stop it. Another CG tonight.
The Morning Edition (May 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman gives up 2 HR in the 9th to Katz and Galvis and blows it in Philly
- Moore twirls 7 innings of 1 run ball, gets help from a Joyce homerun that was reviewed for 9 minutes to win 3-1
- Locke and Harrell duel to a 1-0 Pirates victory
- Ozuna backs Nolasco’s 11 Ks to take one from Arizona
- The Indians rough up Felix, Masterson Ks 11 in 7 innings for a 6-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Under the radar Iwakuma tries to salvage one in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Odorizzi makes his Rays debut against Dickey and the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Cueto returns versus the Mets (7p Eastern)
- Lester faces the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw comes to Milwaukee after dominating his last time out (8p Eastern)
- Corbin on the mound in Colorado (830p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will you divide up your MLB viewing today?
The Marlins are just above the Tigers 43-119 pace from 2003 and are currently tracking toward 44 wins. Their team slash line is an incredible .221/.284/.317. In 2012, four players hit between .220 and .230 and slugged between .310 and .320. Here’s the list: Peter Bourjos (195 PA), Anthony Gose (189 PA), Jose Lobaton (197 PA), and Carlos Triunfel (24 PA). Put it this way, the Marlins as a team are hitting like four players who couldn’t get 200 PA on another team. The average Miami Marlin couldn’t even platoon in the majors. The 2013 Marlins are worse than Don Kelly’s career line, who has made a career being a defense first 13th man who can play many positions. The Marlins are fielding a team that is below replacement level (-1.6 WAR). That’s happening.
The Morning Edition (May 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jordan Zimmermann gives up 1 ER in 8 innings…and loses…to the Padres
- Gattis and Simmons go back to back to back Medlen in his duel with Capuano
- Parra hits a leadoff homer and then McCarthy delivers a CGSO as the Dbacks beat the Fish 1-0
- Tampa Bay gets 6 runs in the 9th to beat the Orioles 10-6
- The Indians win on a walk off fielder’s choice (what?!)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces Masterson in Cleveland (1p Eastern)
- Dickey and CC try to regain Cy Young creds (1p Eastern)
- Matt Moore looks to complete the sweep in Baltimore (130p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are McCarthy’s peripherals finally lining up with the results?
I made a comment on Twitter last night that Carlos Gomez was impressively leading the league in WAR (2.7) and was 9th in the league in wRC+ (170) despite just a 3.9% walk rate. Since I wrote that, those numbers have fluctuated just a bit, but the idea holds up. So I was curious, who had the best low walk season in the last ten years? Since 2004, the best qualifying seasons for players who walked 5.0% of the time or less are:
5. Freddy Sanchez 2006 – 4.9% BB, 4.5 WAR
4. Brandon Phillips 2007 – 4.7% BB, 4.7 WAR
3. Carl Crawford 2005 – 3.9% BB, 4.8 WAR
2. Ichiro 2009 – 4.7% BB, 5.1 WAR
1. Adrian Beltre 2011 – 4.8% BB, 5.3 WAR
Each of those seasons feature a strong defensive effort and low K%, but if you’re curious the best <5% BB season since 2004 with a negative UZR belongs to Adam Jones (2012) who walked 4.8% of the time and posted a 4.4 WAR (7th overall). Also, apparently walking didn’t used to be as cool as it is today, because I then queried a search back to 1980 and Beltre’s 2011 season turned up to be 15th in the last 34 years. Kirby Puckett’s 1988 reigns with 3.9% BB and 7.1 WAR. I’m serious. He hit .356/.375/.545. That’s crazy. Puckett’s 1988 is the best <5.0% BB season, not just since 1980, but also since 1932.
The Morning Edition (May 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Upton slams the Braves past the Dodgers
- Goldschmidt’s 2 bombs back Cahill’s 8 inning gem
- Kuroda blanks the Jays over 8, wins 5-0
- Hellickson gives up 8 runs in 7.2 innings…and gets a win in a 12-10 affair over the O’s
- Kipnis walks off in extras over the M’s
- Phillies bullpen tries to spoil a nice outing by Lee, but the offense bails them out against the Reds
- Harvey twirls 7.2 strong innings and drives in the winning run against the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Quietly strong Zach McAllister faces the Mariners in an attempt to pad his stats (1p Eastern)
- Burnett gets the Astros at home, watch for Ks (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to follow his strong outing against the Marlins 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann faces the Padres at Petco (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do people still take pitcher wins seriously after Hellickson gave up 8 runs and still earned one on Friday?
If I gave you 5 guesses as to who baseball’s best hitter is so far (as of 11:21pm Friday night), would you get it? Miguel Cabrera might be your guess and that’s close, but he’s percentage points behind the leader. Maybe Upton? Or Longoria? Or Choo? All good guesses, but it’s actually Paul Goldschmidt. The Dbacks slugging first baseman has a nice season and a half to his name in the big leagues, but he’s taken a step forward so far this season. His plate discipline is improving and his power is better, while also buoyed by a little good luck. Right now his 185 wRC+ is a fraction of a point ahead of Cabrera and his .338/.421/.656 line is a thing of beauty.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hicks hits 2 HR and robs one for good measure as Twins beat the White Sox
- Masterson delivers a CGSO as the Tribe split a DH with the Yanks
- Upton mashes in his return to Arizona
- Harper injured as the Nats roll
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix and CC face off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore welcomes the Red Sox to the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Corbin tries to quiet the Braves in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Nats in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you think Dbacks fans liked Upton’s homecoming?
Here are the four best teams by wRC+ as of 12:19am (May 14): Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, Rays. The Tigers certainly fit, but I don’t know how many people would have said the Indians, Sox, and Rays were top level offenses when the seasons started. The Marlins and White Sox are the worst, but that Nationals are 28th, which is exactly how we all saw it six weeks ago. I’m a big fan of the Anthony Rizzo extension because I think he’s going to be a star and he’s about to be paid like less than $7 million AAV during his prime. In the last calendar year, he’s played 124 games in the big leagues and has 24 HR and a .283/.345/.485 line good for 124 wRC+. Among players below Rizzo by wRC+ over the last year are: A-Gon, Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Carlos Gonzalez. Rizzo is good and now he is cheap.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
The Morning Edition (May 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- A’s lose 4-3 to the Indians after umpires fail to correctly overturn a double that should have gone for a homerun in the 9th
- Vernon Wells homers as the Yanks beat the Rockies, but also plays third base! (?!)
- Twins and Red Sox play football at Fenway and the Twins win by a touchdown, 15-8, as Ortiz’s streak is snapped
- Felix outduels Burnett for a 2-1 win at PNC
- Kershaw gives up 1 ER in 7 innings, but doesn’t get the necessary offense to win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Bartolo Colon faces Scott Kazmir in what I can only assume is a game from 2005 (12p Eastern)
- Dickey and Price face off in a battle of underperforming reigning Cy’s (7p Eastern)
- Hamels and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will the league handle the incorrect upheld double in Cleveland?
I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need for more replay in MLB, but the umpiring crew in Cleveland on Wednesday couldn’t even use the replay they have properly. It’s really hard to imagine what they saw that didn’t result in a homerun, and if they didn’t have the right angle to overturn the call, why didn’t they have that angle? But the more exciting news from Wednesday was Vernon Wells playing 3B for the Yankees. He had played 1592 games in his career entering the day and none of them had been anywhere but the outfield or designated hitter. That ended as he played 3B in the 9th inning Wednesday. I don’t have the resources to look this up at the moment, but I’m very interested in players who play only one inning at a position in their career like Wells did tonight that was clearly out of strange necessity. Who remembers when Pudge Rodriguez played 2 innings at 2B back in 2006?! He caught a popup in his only chance.
The Morning Edition (May 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a perfect game into the 7th, loses it on an infield single, and winds up striking out 12, walking none over 9 innings – but the Mets needed 10 innings to beat the White Sox 1-0
- J.A. Happ takes a line drive off the side of his head, taken off the field on a stretcher (condition unknown at press time)
- The Reds get two homers in the 9th to walk off on Kimbrel
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix Hernandez is on the hill in Pittsburgh, but so is the quite frontman AJ Burnett (1230p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw welcomes the Dbacks to Chavez Ravine (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Happ going to be alright?
Matt Harvey (4-0. 49.1 IP, 1.28 ERA, 1.92 FIP, 1.9 WAR) did it again. You may remember he made the inaugural Appointment Television rankings and he showed why on Tuesday. He retired the first 20 hitters he faced, until he allowed a two out infield hit in the 7th inning, and then went right back to dominating and finished the night with 12 strikeouts, 0 walks, 1 hit, and 0 runs in 9 innings of work. His team couldn’t muster a run until the 10th, so he didn’t get a win, but he was eye-popping fantastic. Granted, he faced the league’s second worst offense in the White Sox, but that kind of domination is difficult in any setting. I’ve been buying Harvey for a while, as regular readers will note, but this is just getting out of hand. In 17 ML starts, he’s allowed 3 or more earned runs just three time. He’s allowed more than 5 hits just four times. The 24 year old righty is certainly must watch TV, but he’s closing in on bona fide ace status. Here are the names he shares the top 9 of the pitcher WAR leaderboard with: Sanchez, Buchholz, Verlander, Darvish, Wainwright, Hernandez, Scherzer, Shields. That’s the company he’s keeping.
The Morning Edition (May 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Indians homer their way to a win over the A’s
- Shields throws 8 scoreless, but his offense fails him as the the White Sox win in 11
- Simmons homers twice as the Braves beat the Reds 7-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Medlen and Bailey bring identical 3.38 ERAs to GABP (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces baseball’s second worse offense, the White Sox, at Citi (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy and Beckett face off in a battle of erstwhile stars (10p Eastern)
- And don’t forget Sanchez vs Zimmermann in DC! (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Harvey respond coming off his first short outing?
Don’t look now, but 20 year old 3B Manny Machado is doing a Trout and Harper impression and has placed himself 4th on the WAR leaderboard (1.7). Machado is hitting .309/.352/.522 for a 135 wRC+ to go with his sterling 6.9 UZR/6 DRS. He’s playing gold glove defense at third and he’s hitting like a star. We’ve talked a lot about how Harper and Trout are generational talents and they’ve spoiled us for other young players, but Mr. Machado isn’t so sure he’s ready to give up so soon. As I write this, just one AL position player has a higher WAR. Perhaps you’ve heard of him: Miguel Cabrera.
The Morning Edition (May 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holliday and Beltran homer behind a smooth performance by Shelby Miller
- Derek Holland dominates the Red Sox enroute to a 7-0 win
- David Wright homers off Kimbrel to send it to extras where the Mets win 7-5
- Felix Hernandez throws 8 shutout innings in Toronto
- AJ Burnett sharp again in 3-2 win over the Nats
- Kershaw flirts with a no-hitter, but loses it in the 6th ahead of a Posey walk-off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright takes the Cardinals north to face the Crew (4p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Pirates in his first start since experiencing forearm tightness (4p Eastern)
- Patrick Corbin and his 1.91 ERA head to SD to face the Padres (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which pitching performance did you most enjoy on Friday?
It probably wouldn’t surprise the astute fan that Carlos Santana is crushing the baseball right now. His .383/.468/.679 line produces a 215 wRC+. That’s pretty awesome. To give you a sense of how good that is, Babe Ruth only had a wRC+ higher than 215 four times and his career wRC+ is 197. Probably not sustainable, but damn impressive as he is a 130 wRC+ career hitter. Man, the Indians can hit. They’d be good if their rotation wasn’t terrible.
New English D 