The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
The Morning Edition (April 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Giancarlo Stanton hits his first HR of the season, but the Fish fall to the Cubs 3-2
- Westbrook throws 6 scoreless innings, but the bullpen gives it away to the Pirates
- Harper homers as the Nats back Dan Haren in a 6-3 win over the Reds
- Matt Moore strikes out 9 in 6 innings as the Rays been the White Sox 10-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dickey tries to find Cy Young form in the Bronx (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Niese hook up in a battle of NL East lefties (1p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller tries to keep the rookie magic alive against the Bucs (2p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces the Padres (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Stanton’s big homerun enough to silence the worriers? (Mostly fantasy owners, because the Marlins don’t really have fans anymore)
As I write this, the two highest position players on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Upton and Shin Shoo Choo. I’ve written about both in this space previously, but the point I’d like to make today is that both were traded this offseason and both trades involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, we know the Dbacks dealt Upton to the Braves in a package deal that saw Martin Prado as the key return. They also played a role in the Choo deal, as they sent Bauer to Cleveland and got Gregorious from the Reds (via Choo). I’m not sure how long it would take me to verify this, but I can’t imagine that the two best players in the league in a given season had ever been involved in trades made by the same team during the previous winter. Now this doesn’t mean the Dbacks won’t make the playoffs, but I would have to imagine they would have a better shot if they have Upton and/or Choo right now. I mean, Parra is a very good outfielder, but he only has a spot in the lineup because of injuries to Eaton, Ross, and Kubel so far. The Diamondbacks might not understand outfielders.
The Morning Edition (April 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Moore dominates the Yankees, tosses 8 2-hit innings and strikes out 9 in a 5-1 win
- Miller and the Cards edge the Nats 3-2
- Felix and the Mariners handle the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright looks to stay hot against Detwiler and the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Niese hook up in a battle of talented lefties (7p Eastern)
- Cain looks to straighten out against rookie standout Patrick Corbin (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will we be watching the NL Cy Young today with Kershaw and Wainwright in action?
I was a big believer in Shin Shoo Choo going into the season from an offensive perspective. I thought he was exactly what the Reds needed. So far, that looks pretty good. The defense is hit and miss so far (-3.7 UZR), but here’s his line as of 10:12pm on April 22:
.371/.522/.614, .490 wOBA, 216 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Not bad. He’s only reaching base more often that he is making outs. That’s not a valuable skill or anything. How’s he doing it? Well he’s a patient hitter in a good park, but he’s also been hit 10 times. The league leader was only hit 17 all of last season. He’s on pace for close to 80 HBP, which would be silly, but he’s going to have a lot. The record, should you be interested, belongs to Ron Hunt of the 1971 Expos. He was hit 50 times. Don Baylor was hit 35 times in 1986, which is second best. Choo might have a shot at that one.
The Morning Edition (April 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox triumph over the Royals in their return to action, Big Papi says the f-word to celebrate, and Neil Diamond belts out “Sweet Caroline” at Fenway
- Hellickson outduels Parker as the Rays beat the A’s 1-0
- Harper homers twice as the Nats beat the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Royals and Sox play two at Fenway, featuring prospect Allen Webster’s debut in the nightcap (130p and 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann, coming off his first career CG, takes on the Mets at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Brandon McCarthy tries to right the ship after three rocky outings, but has to face the Rockies at Coors (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until “This is our f-ing city” t-shirts starting selling outside Fenway? Six hours?
I promise this section will get more interesting once we have more that 15 games of information to talk about, and I’ll eventually stop referring to sample size, but one particular player who is near the top of the WAR leaderboard caught my eye; Brandon Crawford. The Giants shortstop is known for his glove, but his bat is doing some damage during the couple weeks of the season. In his career, he’s been a .240-.250 type hitter with very little power. In 696 plate appearances entering the season, he had 7 homeruns. He already has 3 in 68 as I write this. His .248/.304/.349 slash line last year was indicative of the type of player most people expect him to be. His wRC+ last year was 79. He’s not a black hole type hitter, but he relies on his glove. This season? This season he’s tearing the cover of the ball so far. He has 3 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .317/.397/.533, good for a 160 wRC+. He’s 5th in baseball in position player WAR at 10:53pm on April 20th. I’m not saying this means he’s going to be a good hitter going forward, not at all. It’s too early to suggest a given hitter is a new man, but I’m telling you he’s been crazy good so far this year. That’s remarkable in its own right. You want to know which players hit .310/.390/.530 or better in 2012? Trout, Braun, Posey, Cabrera, McCutchen. That’s it. That’s the whole list.
For the first three weeks of 2013, Brandon Crawford has hit like the top finishers in last year’s MVP races. Baseball is fun.
The Morning Edition (April 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zach Greinke breaks his collarbone after a Carlos Quentin charges the mound after being hit by a pitch
- The Giants come back from being down 5-0 to beat the Cubs at Wrigley 7-6
- Felix gives up 10 hits enroute to a loss against the Rangers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jon Niese and the Mets meet old division foe Vance Worley at Target Field (8p Eastern)
- The Blue Jays face the Royals in a battle of AL makeovers (8p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for appointment viewing against the Dbacks (940p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish faces the struggling Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Clayton Kershaw making a bid to unseat Verlander as baseball’s best starter?
Thursday brought us an abbreviated MLB schedule with just eight games (one of which was rained out) and resulted in MLB Network filling unaccounted for air time with a rerun of Intentional Talk hosted by Chris Rose and Kevin Millar. This leads me to my only idle musing for the day: how good does a network have to be for IT to be its worst program? That’s insane. It’s a solid show, but it’s their worst show. MLB Now, MLB Tonight, Quick Pitch, Clubhouse Confidential, The Rundown, etc are all the best in their class as far as sports programming goes. It’s no wonder they win so many Emmys.
I haven’t heard the timeline on the Greinke injury, but it’s a blow to the Dodgers who were counting on him to pitch at ace levels this season. It will probably only cost them a couple games in the standings in total due to the time he misses, but I would be concerned about how the injury might affect his delivery when he returns give its location. We should know more later today that will help clear up those questions.
Finally, 42 opens today nationwide. I’m looking forward to seeing Jackie Robinson immortalized further on the silver screen and am excited for young and casual fans to get a glimpse into one of the great baseball players of all time, who just happens to double as one of the most pivotal figures of the 20th century. But no pressure on the actors. I plan to review the film sometime in the next week or two.
2012 Season in Review: National League West
It was a big year for the National League West as the the World Series champion and the newest baseball juggernaut called the left coast home. The Dodgers spent a lot of the season as a surprise contender and then big time spender while the steady as she goes Giants took home the ultimate prize.
Here’s how the division finished up:
And for those of you tracking how it played out, here are the playoff odds from April to October
My early projection for next season looks like this:
And finally, I look back at my 2012 grades for each club.
The NL West Cy Young is Clayton Kershaw’s in a runaway, and Buster Posey takes the NL West MVP over Chase Headley.
2012 Season in Review: Arizona Diamondbacks
81-81, 3rd in the NL West
After a somewhat surprising and excellent 2011, the Diamondbacks took a step back in 2012 due to some regression to the mean and regression to the disabled list. The club won half its games, so it wasn’t a disaster, but expectations were moderately high, so it feels like a step back.
Four Dbacks outfielders played 100 games or more and posted starter or better WARs. Chris Young (2.8), Justin Upton (2.5), Gerado Parra (2.0), and Jason Kubel (1.8 so almost) made up a good outfielder, but it looks disappointing because Upton played so far below his ability. Second basemen Aaron Hill (6.2) had a monster year and hit two cycles, so you can’t complain about that. Paul Goldschmidt (3.7) played a good first base and Miguel Montero (5.0) had another great year behind the dish. Really, the left side of the infield is the only really area in need of upgrade on offense.
The starting pitching wasn’t bad either, even if Ian Kennedy (3.1) wasn’t a top line guy again and Daniel Hudson got hurt. Wade Miley (4.6) stepped in nicely and Trevor Cahill (3.4) fit in well. The other two spots in the rotation were trouble as the Snakes mixed and matched with some veterans and youngsters. The bullpen did well enough to keep them relevant.
A .500 team isn’t a great team, but this one has the makings of one. They traded Chris Young and signed Cody Ross. They have Adam Eaton waiting for an outfield spot too. They added some middle infield depth and bullpen reclamation projects this offseason. They dealt top prospect Trevor Bauer in the process, but added fragile yet very good Brandon McCarthy to fill the void not to mention a lot of good starting pitching working its way up the farm system.
The Dbacks didn’t turn heads in 2012, but with some retooling and a couple bounce back seasons, they have a shot to improve in 2013. Unfortunately, there are a number of NL teams on the rise, so that might not be so easy.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 80-82
Reds Go For Choo, Get at Least Half of What They Need
After a few big trades this offseason, the Indians, Reds, and Diamondbacks felt left out and got involved in one of their own last night.
The three team deal sends SS Didi Gregorius, LHP Tony Sipp, and 1B Lars Anderson to Arizona, OF Drew Stubbs, RHP Trevor Bauer, RHP Matt Albers, and RHP Bryan Shaw to Cleveland, and OF Shin-Soo Choo and INF Jason Donald to the Reds.
The Reds needed a leadoff man and a centerfielder. They definitely got the leadoff man. Choo’s on base skills are top flight, but his ability to play centerfield is in question. If he can handle it, the Reds come out pretty well in the deal. They’re a team on the brink of a title and a few more marginal wins could easily be the difference and they made this addition without losing anyone from the big league roster.
The Diamondbacks needed a shortstop and a left handed reliever, and they got them. But they gave up an awful lot in terms of prospect value for an equally unproven return. Giving up on Bauer after a year and a half seems like a foolish move given that they made him the #3 pick two summers ago. They have young pitching depth, but this doesn’t seem like the upgrade they needed.
The Indians made out very well in this deal as they gave up one season of Choo, a utility infielder, and a respectable reliever for some really solid prospects and a useful OF. They weren’t ready to contend in 2013 so they traded Choo for a nice bundle of future talent. Hard not to like it.
The deal makes tons of sense for the tribe and little sense for Arizona. The Reds are the wild card. Choo is exactly what they need on offense and a very big question mark on defense. How Choo plays in centerfield at Great American Ballpark will determine how this trade is ultimately viewed.
Grade (Indians): A-, Grade (Diamondbacks): C-, Grade (Reds):B
Three Years After ‘The Trade,’ Schlereth is the First to Go
It’s been nearly three years since The Trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Bronx, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit, and Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to Arizona.
This shouldn’t really be news today except that the Tigers have cut ties with the smallest piece of that deal; Daniel Schlereth.
It’s hard to call this trade anything but a win for the Tigers at this point given how well Jackson, Scherzer, and Coke have performed over their three seasons with the club at a lower collective cost than Granderson and Jackson.
Granderson has 13.2 WAR since 2010 while making $23.75 million. Austin Jackson (12.3), Scherzer (11.1), and Coke (3.8) sum all the way up to 27.2 WAR and cost $9.5 million together. (Edwin Jackson put up 7.8 WAR in his two years of team control that the deal covered but made lots of money so he’s a wash)
So the Tigers basically added 14 wins to their club over the last three years and saved $14 million, so far. The deal will keeping paying dividends as time goes on and Granderson’s deal expires and Jackson/Scherzer/Coke remain under Tigers’ control.
But what about Daniel (son of Mark) Schlereth? You can’t fault Dombrowski on a deal that worked out this well…or can you?
Schlereth has been worth a whopping -0.6 WAR as a Tiger. That’s a minus sign folks. Many, many walks will do that to you. His Tigers career is over and he’s been worse than useless.
Let’s reimagine the 2009 trade without Schlereth in the picture. Tigers send Granderson to New York for Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy. They then send Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to Arizona for Scherzer and Schlereth. Hmmm…
Could the Tigers have kept Jackson or Kennedy if they hadn’t wanted Schlereth? We’ll never know, but it’s interesting to think about. The Diamondbacks wanted to trade two pitchers for two slightly more proven pitchers. Could we have gotten a one for one? Kennedy for Scherzer or Jackson for Scherzer?
Could this be a world in which the Tigers had Ian Kennedy as well right now? Or Edwin Jackson for two more seasons? Even if the rotations were crowded, those are nice trade chips that would return more than a Daniel Schlereth right now.
This is a fun game we can play, but it’s also pretty crazy to get 14 more wins for $14 fewer million and wish you had done better. One of the pieces of The Trade has watched his clock run out in Detroit. Daniel Schlereth’s days in the organization are over and he will forever be the miss among the hits.
Which is fitting, given how much he missed the strike zone while wearing a Tigers uniform.
Is Now the Time to Trade Justin Upton?
So the pundit echo chamber buzz of the week is about the Diamondbacks listening to offers on Justin Upton, their 25 year old RF coming off a down season. You may remember him from such posts as, “I Thought He Would Win MVP this season.”
Needless to say, I saw a good deal of potential in Upton entering this season and haven’t lost a ton of faith in him after a meh 2012.
But should the Diamondbacks trade him?
As always, it depends. If someone makes a really good offer, you should always take it, but if we’re talking about reasonable offers, I would argue it depends a lot on what players you get back.
That sounds like a stupid answer, but I mean it in a very specific way. You should trade Upton now if you’re getting back big league players. For example, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs evaluated an Upton for Andrus deal. That’s a deal you take.
But if it’s for prospects, I’m waiting.
But not because I’m someone who wants to see proven talent and all that, I’m waiting because this is the wrong time to trade Upton. His value is never going to be lower. He’s coming off a down season that followed a great year. You’re selling low on your most valuable asset if you deal him now.
That’s a fine strategy if the deal you want won’t be available during the season. The Rangers won’t deal Andrus or other big league pieces in July. So if you want an MLB level guy, pull the trigger.
If you want a massive prospect haul, wait. Those guys will be available in July because the team you’re dealing with won’t have to subtract from the big league team to get Upton, and they’ll be more desperate. The options will be more limited.
There are 3-5 OF on the market right now who can be as good as Upton in the short run. At the 2013 deadline, that number should be much lower.
Hold on to Justin Upton because he’s either going to help you contend in 2013 or bring you a bigger return than dealing him now.
Tigers Perspective: Lots of people are asking if the Tigers should target Upton, but I can’t see them doing it. I don’t know for sure what Arizona is asking for, but I think you’re talking about Castellanos, Smyly, and more. That’s a high price to pay for a player coming off a down season. The Tigers have a loaded 3-4-5 combo for the next two seasons and a solid leadoff man. They need depth more than they need star power. Pass.
New English D 