How Was The Game? (September 6, 2013)
A meaningful response.
Tigers 16, Royals 2
Just two days after absorbing a 16 run defeat at the hands of the Red Sox, the Tigers turned around and took their frustration out on the Royals in a big way. Anibal Sanchez (25 GS, 159 IP, 2.60 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 5.3 WAR) was quite good, but didn’t really have to be, finishing with 7 innings of 1 run baseball and 5 Ks and 1 BB. He touched 97 and breezed through while his offense made the Royals wish they hadn’t gotten out of bed in the morning. They got 5 in the 2nd, 5 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 2 in the 7th, and 1 in the 9th to finish this one early and often. Jackson, Fielder, and Avila had 3 hits. Hunter and Martinez had 2. Dirks had 5. Infante had 5. It was hard to keep track. Everyone was hitting. A lot. And this wasn’t death by a million paper cuts, it was good, solid contact that erased the terrible damage they did to their run differential on Wednesday. Despite the dominance, it counts for just one game in the standings, locking in the Tigers 82nd win and setting them up to take the series with Justin Verlander (29 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.9 WAR) taking the hill.
The Moment: The TIgers score 16 runs. How can you choose just one?
Which Relievers Should The Tigers Take To October?
With just three weeks and change standing between the Tigers and postseason baseball for the third straight October, it’s time to start thinking about using the home stretch to make some tough choices. Specifically, the Tigers need to address Jhonny Peralta’s status with the club and which relievers are coming and which relievers are staying home. I’ll leave the Peralta question for another day and tackle the relievers right now.
Let’s start with some basic assumptions. The Tigers are going to carry 11 pitchers and 5 will be the members of their starting rotation, even if one or more of them will pitch out of the bullpen. So that leaves us with 6 slots.
The No Brainers
Joaquin Benoit, Jose Veras, Drew Smyly, and Bruce Rondon are all locks barring a serious injury or some sort of terrible meltdown.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Drew Smyly | 53 | 69 | 9.26 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 2.22 | 2.43 | 3.04 | 1.5 |
| Joaquin Benoit | 55 | 55 | 9.82 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 2.13 | 2.89 | 3.23 | 1.1 |
| Jose Veras* | 58 | 58.1 | 8.18 | 3.09 | 0.93 | 2.93 | 3.74 | 3.99 | 0.6 |
| Bruce Rondon | 29 | 27.2 | 8.78 | 3.58 | 0.65 | 3.58 | 3.22 | 3.43 | 0.3 |
*with both the Tigers and Astros in 2013
Using New English D’s own propriety metric, SOEFA, each of these four grade out as above average relievers for the season with Benoit and Smyly being among the best dozen in the game as of last Sunday.
| Player | SOEFA |
| Joaquin Benoit | 0.79 |
| Drew Smyly | 0.76 |
| Jose Veras | 0.15 |
| Bruce Rondon | 0.02 |
The Question Marks
We know whomever the Tigers call on has to currently be in the organization and we also know that Octavio Dotel is likely out for the season. That leaves the Tigers with 7 relievers who saw big league action this year. These numbers are in relief and as Tigers.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Darin Downs | 26 | 33 | 10.09 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 5.18 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 0.3 |
| Phil Coke | 45 | 36.2 | 7.36 | 3.93 | 0.74 | 4.91 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 0.2 |
| Luke Putkonen | 23 | 23.1 | 8.10 | 2.70 | 1.16 | 2.70 | 3.81 | 3.62 | 0.1 |
| Evan Reed | 13 | 19.1 | 6.52 | 1.86 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 0.1 |
| Al Alburquerque | 44 | 40.1 | 13.17 | 6.92 | 1.12 | 5.58 | 4.18 | 3.59 | 0.0 |
| Jose Alvarez | 3 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 15.75 | 5.79 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 10 | 15.1 | 8.22 | 5.87 | 1.76 | 5.28 | 5.71 | 4.61 | -0.2 |
Downs pitched well for the Tigers earlier this year before struggling and then missing time with a shoulder injury. He wasn’t added to the roster when the limit went from 25 to 40, which signals that the Tigers don’t plan to use him in October. That could change, but it’s possible too that he hasn’t fully recovered from his injury. If Downs is healthy, he’d be an obvious choice for me as he did excellent work until the last couple outings before going on the DL and has an excellent strikeout rate and no serious platoon issues.
Coke struggled with command this season and has become a LOOGY for the most part since returning from Toledo. Last month, I looked into his struggles and didn’t find anything stuff or health related to worry about. Coke seems like an obvious choice if Downs isn’t an option because the Tigers are going to want to carry at least 2 lefties.
Jose Alvarez won’t be needed for his length and it’s hard to think he’s a better LOOGY than Coke at this point. He’s a touch and feel guy who can give you innings, which isn’t that valuable in the postseason.
Luke Putkonen has a solid fastball and some pretty good numbers to match working in long relief (for the most part) this year as he bounced up and down as necessary. Putkonen would be a good fit in principle, but with Porcello likely heading to the bullpen for the playoffs, the value of a guy who can offer length is somewhat diminished. Putkonen is certainly a candidate, but it’s a tough call.
Evan Reed hasn’t spent much time in the show this year, but he’s done solid work during his stints with the big club. There isn’t much to go on with Reed, but he doesn’t really seem to have anything that distinguishes him from Putkonen in terms of what he could bring to the roster.
Jeremy Bonderman is an interesting one because the overall results haven’t been great this year, but he’s show the ability to come in and slam the door at times this year. September will be key for evaluating Bonderman because I’m not sure if he’s capable of being a shutdown middle reliever or not. That might have been a flash in the pan, but I always thought his stuff would play up in the pen.
Al Alburquerque is going to be the key. His strikeout rate is nuts and if you need a big strikeout he’s a guy you want to be able to call upon. But he’s also extremely wild and might walk in the key run as well. He’s been hit hard lately and the overall results package hasn’t been great. He has a high payoff potential, but you’re also scared to use him to some extent with too much on the line. He might punish hitters with his slider or he might get creamed.
Which leaves us with a tough choice. It’s hard to imagine Coke, who had so much success last October and remains the best LOOGY option, doesn’t get invited to the dance. Unless he lays a big egg in the final days, he’s going to join the four-headed monster – even if I would prefer a healthy Downs.
The last righty is a tough one because of the different dynamic in October. If you need length in the pen, you’re going to use Porcello because you don’t need a guy who “saves the pen,” you need a guy who holds the lead at all costs. So a swingman, mop up type isn’t what you need. If Al-Al in the zone, he’d be in for sure, but he isn’t and a guy like Putkonen could be a safe option. He’s not going to come in and get you a big K the way Al-Al could, but you have Rondon for that and you don’t have to worry about holding back in October. The marathon is over and it’s time to sprint.
It’s tough, but I think you have to try it with Alburquerque. He’s a high risk, high reward pick but he brings a skill to the table that Putkonen, Reed, and Bonderman don’t. Presumably, with all of the off days in October and the finish line in sight, you can pitch with a short pen if Al-Al loses it and can’t be trusted. But if he hits one of his grooves, the benefits will be huge.
Should We Worry About Smyly?
Drew Smyly has had a fantastic year out of the Tigers bullpen. That’s hard to argue. He’s thrown 69 innings, turned in a 2.22 ERA and 2.43 FIP (what’s FIP?) to go along with a 1.5 WAR (what’s WAR?). He has struck out 26% of opposing hitters and walked just 5.5%. He’s been otherworldly against lefties and pretty good against righties. In fact, until August, he was dominating righties as well.
In August, Smyly had a rough go of it. It was only 8 innings and 35 batters, but it wasn’t good. It was the equivalent of one or two really bad starts, but for a reliever it looks worse. But even after that rough August, our own reliever metric, SOEFA, still likes him as the 11th best reliever in the game this year. So let’s take a look at his monthly splits and see if there is anything we should worry about going into October:
| Split | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Mar/Apr | 18 | 1.50 | 0.188 | 0.246 | 0.250 | 0.226 |
| May | 14.2 | 3.07 | 0.214 | 0.267 | 0.321 | 0.263 |
| Jun | 16.1 | 2.20 | 0.203 | 0.281 | 0.310 | 0.260 |
| Jul | 12 | 0.00 | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.141 |
| Aug | 8 | 5.63 | 0.353 | 0.371 | 0.735 | 0.471 |
So while it is only 8 innings, the ERA is way up, the average is way up, the OBP is way up, the slugging is way up, and the wOBA is way up. Hitters did a lot better in August.
| Split | K% | BB% | BABIP | FIP | xFIP |
| Mar/Apr | 29.00% | 7.30% | 0.273 | 1.65 | 2.95 |
| May | 23.30% | 6.70% | 0.268 | 2.83 | 3.36 |
| Jun | 26.20% | 7.70% | 0.286 | 2.06 | 3.24 |
| Jul | 31.80% | 0.00% | 0.233 | 0.71 | 1.97 |
| Aug | 17.10% | 2.90% | 0.360 | 6.79 | 3.81 |
Smyly struck out fewer batters in August, but he also walked almost no one. You’ll notice a much higher BABIP and a clear spike in FIP. His xFIP (what’s xFIP?) goes up as well, but not nearly as much, which tells you that homeruns were likely a bit of an issue in August.
| Split | HR/9 |
| Mar/Apr | 0.00 |
| May | 0.61 |
| Jun | 0.00 |
| Jul | 0.00 |
| Aug | 3.38 |
Smyly gave up three big longballs in August after allowing just one all season long prior to that. That’s going to drive bad results over 8 innings. This is a small sample, clearly, but the exercise is useful in pointing out that Smyly hasn’t performed well lately. Is this cause for concern?
Using Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/X data on his fourseam fastball, we observe this pattern in game to game average velo:
The average climbed until his 30th or so appearance and has been working its way down a bit since then, but there is a lot of fluctuation. There is a trend over the last dozen appearances, but not really as much over the whole season. The movement, which is a little harder to show graphically isn’t quite as crisp as his best days, but it’s not dramatically different. His release point is drifting very marginally toward the center of the plate, but again, not in a big way.
It just looks like he threw a bad pitch to Konerko and Moss and Salvador Perez hit a good one. That’s really the difference between a good month and a bad one for a reliever who only saw 8 innings. If there are signs of fatigue or an injury, they aren’t big, dramatic, and clear signs.
This doesn’t look like anything to worry about. Some are concerned about his workload based on his never having pitch out of the pen like this, but he threw 100 MLB innings last season and isn’t getting anywhere close to that in 2013 and is still 700 pitches or so behind the number he threw last year.
This appears to be a blip on the radar for Smyly who continues to be having a great season overall. Leyland appears to watching him closely and has gone five days without using him at this point. I’m not sure if that’s a good strategy or not. I think I would want him to get more regular reps down the stretch, but it’s possible he’s tiring a bit and Leyland knows something we don’t. Either way, nothing I’m seeing concerns me very much about Smyly and I expect he’ll be one of the best relievers in baseball the rest of the way.
How Was The Game? (September 4, 2013)
One you’ll want to forget.
Red Sox 20, Tigers 4
Things were strange at Fenway on this night as Rick Porcello (26 GS, 153 IP, 4.76 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 2.2 WAR) made some very good pitches during parts of the game and got smoked on other occasions. He allowed 3 HR and then left the bases loaded for Alburquerque to unload, pushing Porcello to 5 IP and 8 ER, but can at least take some (?) comfort in the fact that he did throw some nasty curves early in this one. The bats did a decent job scoring early, but it’s hard to match 20 runs (twelve of which came after Porcello left). Not a whole lot you can do about this one, other than to forget it and get ready for Kansas City on Friday with Anibal Sanchez (24, 151.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 5.0 WAR) taking the ball.
The Moment: Mario Impemba calls two innings from a cell phone as the FSD’s microphones go down.
How Was The Game? (September 3, 2013)
The wrong side of a duel.
Red Sox 2, Tigers 1
Max Scherzer (28 GS, 190.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 5.7 WAR) gave the Tigers 7+ strong innings of 2 run baseball in which he walked 3 and struck out 8 Red Sox, but his team was unable to gather the necessary offense to carry them to victory. Leyland made some strange bullpen choices in the 8th, going to Coke and Putkonen, but no damage was done. However, when you only score one run – on an Iglesias double in the second – it’s unlikely that you’re going to win. The Tigers will have a chance to take the series Wednesday night with Rick Porcello (25 GS, 148 IP, 4.44 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 2.6 WAR) taking the ball.
The Moment: Iglesias drives one in against his former club.
How Was The Game? (September 2, 2013)
An October preview?.
Tigers 3, Red Sox 0
The two best teams in the AL faced off on Labor Day and the Tigers locked in a .500 or better record with their 81st win of the season. Doug Fister (28 GS, 179.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.9 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 scoreless despite having to pitch around 5 free passes (4 BB and 1 HBP) with a couple double plays and some flashy (?!) Tigers defense. Neither team could score until the Tigers broke through with 2 in the 7th and 1 in the 8th. Rondon pitched around a double from Pedroia in the 8th and Veras shut the door to end it. The Tigers will try to take the series Tuesday night with the talented Max Scherzer (27 GS, 183.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 5.4 WAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Dirks triples to put the Tigers ahead in the 7th.
How Was The Game? (September 1, 2013)
A fun duel until the end.
Indians 4, Tigers 0
Justin Verlander (29 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR) flipped the script on the Indians today after a lengthy and laborious first inning and started to look like the Verlander we used to know as the game wore on. It wasn’t the best he’s been this year, but he was solid, tossing 7 shutout innings while allowing 4 hits, 2 walks, and getting 6 strikeouts include a very nice dissection of Kubel in his penultimate batter. The bats were quiet, however, today and Verlander left the game in a 0-0 tie that would only be broken by an Aviles grand slam off Benoit in the 9th. The Tigers failed to rally and sent the Indians packing only trailing the Tigers by 7.5. Despite the loss, the Tigers faithful still got a chance to see Nick Castellanos make his MLB debut, in which he flew out to right. They’ll hop a plane to Boston and send Doug Fister (27 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.9 WAR) to the mound against the Sox on Monday afternoon.
The Moment: Castellanos gets called on to pinch hit and flies out in his MLB debut.
How Was The Game? (August 31, 2013)
The night they made October plans.
Tigers 10, Indians 5
Anibal Sanchez (24 GS, 151.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 5.0 WAR) put a messy first inning behind him nicely and despite allowing 3 runs over 6.2 innings, was quite good and rarely in any sort of trouble while striking out five and walking one. The Tigers got their runs in bunches, mostly thanks to two big homeruns from Infante who delivered a 3 run shot in the 2nd and a 2 run bomb in the 6th. Things got close and dangerous in the 8th when Carlos Santana launched a fly ball to deep center that Jackson nearly caught, but couldn’t as he crashed into the wall. Santana would wind up scoring on the play as Jackson was hurt – though thankfully stayed in the game and broke it back open in the bottom half with a 2 run triple as part of a 4 run inning. The win is the Tigers 80th as they push their division lead to a near ironclad 8.5 games entering the season’s final month. The ball will go to Justin Verlander (28 GS, 178.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.7 WAR) on Sunday who will look to give the Tigers a 16-3 record against the Indians in 2013. Also of note, will be the arrival of top prospect Nick Castellanos.
The Moment: Infante homers…twice.
How Was The Game? (August 30, 2013)
Two steps forward.
Tigers 7, Indians 2 (7 innings)
With the final three games of the season against the Indians taking place this weekend, the Tigers turned to Rick Porcello (25 GS, 148 IP, 4.44 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 2.6 WAR) to get off on the right foot and the 24 year old hurler did just that, tossing 5.2 innings of 2 run baseball as his team staked him to an early lead. The Tigers grabbed one in the second and four in the third in part due to a hilarious Michael Bourn misplay in centerfield. Porcello got ground ball after ground ball and the bullpen backed him up to send the Tigers to 7.5 games up in the division with just 27 games to play. One more win this weekend should finalize the team’s October plans and Anibal Sanchez (27 GS, 144.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 4.8 WAR) will try to set the team up to do just that on Saturday.
The Moment: Iglesias starts a ridiculous double play. (Video)
Checking In On The Tigers Late Inning Scoring
During the middle part of the season, much was made over the Tigers inability to score runs late in games. I don’t have the exact numbers, but they scored many fewer runs in the 7-9th innings than they did during the earlier ones. A lot of people were concerned that the Tigers weren’t clutch, or for some reason gave away innings at the end of the game. At the time, my view was pretty much in line with most of my views on statistics. The overall number was more important than the split. At the time, the Tigers were a top five offense in terms of run scoring and in terms of other stats like wOBA and wRC+. Or even basic numbers like OBP and OPS.
The Tigers were a good offensive and the inning to inning variation didn’t seem meaningful to me. Now that we have some more data, let’s take a look. Below are the Tigers runs per inning compared to the league average AL club.
You’ll notice I’ve multiplied the runs per innings times nine so that you can more easily interpret the numbers. Entering August 30th, the Tigers have scored 5.2 runs per game and have five innings above that pace and four innings below. The entire AL scores 4.4 runs per game and has a four/five split above and below.
Several things jump out. First, it appears to be very common for teams to score fewer runs in the final three innings. Relievers allow fewer runs per inning because they don’t have to pace themselves like starters – this is well established. Second, you’ll notice that the Tigers outperform league average in 7 of 9 innings. Third, you’ll notice the 7th inning is the only inning in which they seriously under-perform.
But I’d like to call your attention to the 3rd inning. The Tigers have a drop off in production between innings 2 and 4 that otherwise goes unexplained. What is it about the 3rd inning that causes this? Nothing. That’s silly. Let’s now look at the percentage of innings in which the team scores – in other words controlling for the big innings. How often do they score?
This graphic tells the same story. The Tigers score frequently and they score a lot, with both a little lighter on the back end.
What does it all mean? First of all, they’ve improved in the late innings lately and limited some of the early season damage. In big enough samples, things tend to balance out. Second, runs scored are runs scored. They count the same in the first and the eighth, so what does it really matter?
They are outscoring their opponents by quite a bit. Does scoring less often in a certain inning reflect a real difference in ability? I can’t see how it would. What accounts for the difference between the 3rd and 4th innings? What about the the 6th and 7th? Their performance goes up and down, so it’s not attrition. They score better than average in the 9th, so it’s not like they wilt under pressure, because the 9th should have the most pressure because you’re running out of outs.
I don’t really have a good explanation, but I’m not sure we need one. The Tigers score a ton of runs and the distribution is balancing out to some degree. I really just wanted to put the numbers out there and let you make up your own mind. I don’t think the distribution is meaningful, but you might. Throw out some ideas in the comments section if you’re so inclined. They’re comfortably baseball’s best offense, must they also be the most even keeled one?
New English D 