How Was The Game? (August 29, 2013)
A complete 180.
Tigers 7, A’s 6
Max Scherzer (27 GS, 183.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 5.5 WAR) entered the day likely driving the Cy Young bus, but stubbed his toe against the red hot A’s, allowing 6 runs (5 ER) in 5 innings courtesy of 2 HR. He struck out 5 and walked only 1, but much of the contact was sharp. He wasn’t atrocious by any means, but compared to the rest of his season, it’s hard to remember a day in which he was tagged any harder. The Tigers clawed at the sides of the early hole as they got a run in the 4th and 2 in the 6th, but entered the 9th inning down 6-3 with Balfour coming on. Jackson walked, Dirks popped out, and Avila struck out before a Fielder walk and Martinez single prepared Torii Hunter to come to the plate. After entering as pinch hitter earlier in the came, Hunter was hitting in the 6 spot, but that didn’t seem to matter as he drove the second pitch he saw out to left to win it for the Tigers. The win helps them avoid the sweep and guarantee they welcome the Indians to town no closer than 5.5 games back with Rick Porcello (24 GS, 142.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 2.5 WAR) taking the ball in the first game.
The Moment: Hunter walks off down 2, with 2 outs.
How Was The Game? (August 28, 2013)
Not much to look at.
A’s 14, Tigers 4
Doug Fister (27 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.9 WAR) didn’t pitch as poorly as the line indicates, but that isn’t to say he pitched well. He allowed 7 runs in 5 IP courtesy of 13 hits, but no walks and 2 Ks. Not much of the contact was hard, but it still wasn’t one of the Fister’s better nights. The offense had some early chances against Straily, but other than Hunter’s solo shot, they couldn’t deliver until it was too late. Other than some nice defense from Jose Iglesias, this was just one to forget and the Tigers will try to do just that and avoid the sweep with Max Scherzer (26 GS, 178.1 IP, 2.73 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 5.6 WAR) getting the nod on Thursday.
The Moment: Iglesias makes some nifty plays.
Al Alburquerque’s Magic Pitch
Let’s get a few things out of the way early. Al Alburquerque gets a lot of strikeouts and issues a lot of walks. 33.7% of the batters he has faced in his career have struck out. 16.1% have walked. Add those together and we’re talking about 49.8% of his career has been spent not letting the hitter put the ball in play. It should also be noted that his arm should probably fall off given that pitching with good mechanics is very violent and he doesn’t have good mechanics.
Al-Al (as I’ll refer to him because his last name takes forever to type) is really good at not allowing batters to make contact and when they do, it’s not usually great contact. In his career, he’s allowed a .291 SLG (MLB average is about .400). In 95.1 IP, he has a 2.93 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and 1.9 WAR. He’s been erratic, but he’s been very effective – and that includes slightly elevated 2013 numbers based on an out of the ordinary BABIP. He’s not likely to produce a .220 BABIP like he did in 2012, but .350 is likely too high as well.
All in all, Al-Al is a dangerously talented all or nothing kind of arm. He might throw 10 straight balls or he might retire six batters like nothing. You know this about him and you know that he’s got a two pitch mix. Fastball, slider. That’s it. The fastball is good when he can command it, but his moneymaker is his slider. This post is about that slider for no other reason than it is incredible.
Since he only has 95.1 career innings, I’m going to stick with career long stats entering play on August 28th. Coming in, Pitch F/X says he’s thrown 974 sliders (about 60% of his pitches) and has allowed a .130/.226/.148 line against, good for a .186 wOBA and 20 wRC+. Those are insane numbers. Against Al-Al’s slider, hitters are 80% worse than league average. They slug 100 points lower than league average batting average. It’s incredible.
He gets a 24% swinging strike rate against it. League average in 2013 is 9.2%. He gets a 47.9% Contact%. League average is 79.7%. Among pitchers to throw 600+ sliders in the Pitch F/X era, no one has a higher Whiff/Swing rate on that pitch than Al-Al’s 54%. It’s nasty. When batters hit it, it rarely does much. And they don’t hit it very often.
As far as its properties, it only averages 1.5 inches of horizontal movement, but has a very nice -0.4 vertical movement (remember vertical movement is compared to where it would be compared to a pitch that isn’t spinning without gravity). I’ll show you. He’s gone 80-90 with a an 86 mph average:
But let’s get fancy and look at vertical movement with horizontal:
It’s a good slider, but it’s not the best slider if you’re looking at it in terms of its basic properties. It’s 86 mph with 0-5 inches of horizontal break and somewhere in the 5 to -5 vertical range (remember this factors out gravity!). That’s a nice slider, but its not the best in the league. The key, I imagine, is how difficult the pitch is to pick up. Let’s consider a couple of images:
Hopefully you can see that the ball is behind his head. I think this is a slider, but I can’t be sure. He’s hiding that ball for a long time. Let’s try to get a better screen grab:
What are you supposed to do with that? By that point in his delivery, Verlander has the ball way out in the open. Not surprisingly, Trumbo swung and missed at this slider. (PS: If someone can teach me to make GIFs, that would be super cool).
So let’s review. Alburquerque’s slider is very effective and his main fault is being wild. His slider has solid movement and velocity, but the key is that you just can’t see it coming. I can only imagine what it’s like to stand in the batter’s box. The ball comes from behind his head!
Two lessons jump out. One, if Al-Al finds a way to get down to like, 4 walks per 9, he’ll be the most dominant reliever in the game. Two, his elbow is going to explode at some point. Elbows shouldn’t move like normal pitchers make them move. This movement is just ridiculous. Good luck, people facing him. I would just recommend you look for a walk.
How Was The Game? (August 27, 2013)
Nasty, brutish, and short.
A’s 6, Tigers 3 (5+ innings)
Justin Verlander (28 GS, 178.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.7 WAR) had a very bad first inning and while his team recovered very quickly, he would eventually dig the hole too deep. Only 3 of his 5 runs were earned across 5 innings of 3 BB and 3 K baseball, but even allowing three in five innings is too many to average. The bats got him three runs in the 1st thanks to a bases loaded single by Fielder, but they would get no more as the rains came early and often. The game should have been delayed much earlier, but the umpires pushed it to the point of comedy and we ended after 5.5 innings. The Tigers didn’t deserve to win, but it is ridiculous the way the league/umpire attempt to push games past 5 innings in order to make them official, and while doing so, make the games a joke. You shouldn’t play 3 innings in pouring rain. Hopefully Wednesday night will be drier for Doug Fister (26 GS, 167.2 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 3.7 WAR) who will try to get the Tigers a win. Sleep it off Detroit.
The Moment: Fielder delivers a 2 run single.
How Was The Game? (August 26, 2013)
Full of free passes.
A’s 8, Tigers 6
Anibal Sanchez (23 GS, 144.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 4.9 WAR) didn’t bring his best tonight, but he kept the Tigers in the game with 5 pedestrian innings of 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 K baseball against the Oakland A’s. He left the game trailing 4-2 thanks to an Infante HR and watched Cabrera tie it up at 4 with a 2 run opposite field blast in the 5th. However, the bullpen couldn’t hold it as Alvarez surrendered two and Alburquerque and Bonderman each allowed one. The Tigers had a shot with the bases loaded and two outs in the 7th, but Fielder flew out to deep left center. Martinez crushed one in the 8th to narrow the deficit but Hunter failed to deliver with the bases loaded as the Tigers left them full for a second consecutive inning. They added a run in the 9th but would get no closer. The pitching betrayed the Tigers on this night, even if it did seem like the offense failed to deliver in a couple of big spots. With three more left with the A’s, they will shake it off and call on Justin Verlander (27 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.7 WAR) for game two on Tuesday.
The Moment: Cabrera ties it at 4 with a 2 run HR.
How Was The Game? (August 25, 2013)
A nice easy sweep.
Tigers 11, Mets 3
The Tigers slugged their way to a sweep of the Mets on Sunday thanks to a pair of two run homeruns from Miguel Cabrera and Andy Dirks who backed a 7 inning, 3 run affair from Rick Porcello (24 GS, 142.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 2.5 WAR) who continues to be baseball’s best number five starter. He handed out some free passes, but the only real blemish was a two run homerun to d’Arnaud. Porcello retired the last seven he faced and added four strikeouts to set a new career high. While the Tigers were in position to win entering the 9th inning, they decided to really make sure as they put up 7 insurance runs on a 10 batter hit parade. The win moves the Tigers to 77-53 and sets them up to take on Oakland for four at Comerica Park with Anibal Sanchez (22 GS, 139.2 IP, 2,45 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 4.8 WAR) getting game one.
The Moment: Cabrera launches a monster homer in the first.
How Was The Game? (August 24, 2013)
All about Max.
Tigers 3, Mets 0
Max Scherzer (26 GS, 178.1 IP, 2.73 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 5.6 WAR) turned in a strong performance against the Mets, twirling 6 scoreless innings featuring 11 K and a nice two-step around a bases-loaded jam in the 6th. But if you ask Max, the big story was his RBI double off the great Matt Harvey who doesn’t allow many extra base hits (.073 opponents ISO) and had allowed just one extra base hit to a pitcher in his career entering the day. The Tigers grabbed another run in that inning and would hold the line the rest of the way despite a couple of poor coaching choices at third base and a bad call at 2B during a threat in the 7th. The win pushes the Tigers 23 games over .500 and gives them the series victory. They’ll send Rick Porcello (23 GS, 135.1 IP, 4.52 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 2.5 WAR) to the mound Sunday looking to sweep.
The Moment: Scherzer doubles in a run off Harvey in the 2nd.
How Was The Game? (August 23, 2013)
A good start to the trip.
Tigers 6, Mets 1
It shouldn’t come as too much of a shock to anyone that the Tigers unloaded on Dice-K in his Mets debut, jumping out to a 5-1 lead early thanks to a bomb by Hunter and another one by Cabrera. It was never really in doubt and Jackson added an extra run for good measure, but once they got a lead, Doug Fister (26 GS, 167.2 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.7 WAR) had it all figured out. It’s not terribly impressive to silence the Mets’ bats, but Fister held them to 1 run over 6.1 innings and handed it over to the bullpen to polish off the rest. The Tigers got one to open the series and will look to get another against Matt Harvey with fellow ASG starter Max Scherzer (25 GS, 172.1 IP, 2.82 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 5.3 WAR) getting the ball on Saturday
The Moment: Cabrera crushes a 3 run HR to put this one away early.
Scouting the Tigers Pitchers…At the Plate
With a three game series beginning tonight against the Mets in New York, the Tigers pitchers will be asked to bat for just the third time all season (they’ll get one more shot in the season’s final series). Through some amazing quirk of scheduling, Fister and Sanchez pitched in the two game stints in Washington and Pittsburgh, so we’ve only see them at the dish this year. We know, through science, that Justin Verlander is likely the worst hitter currently in the major leagues and he won’t get a shot to redeem himself this time around, but we will get a look at Scherzer and Porcello in addition to Fister. The question that you’re likely asking, along with the Mets’ pitchers (especially Harvey) is clear. How in the world can we pitch to these guys?
Let’s start with some basic offensive numbers for these pitchers in their careers. For what it’s worth to you, I’ll include Fister’s 2013 numbers separately as well:
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | K% | wRC+ |
| Scherzer | 86 | 0.162 | 0.205 | 0.189 | 25.6 | -3 |
| Porcello | 16 | 0.214 | 0.214 | 0.214 | 37.5 | -3 |
| Fister | 15 | 0.308 | 0.308 | 0.385 | 26.7 | 111 |
| Fister ’13 | 4 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 0 | 286 |
Max Scherzer
Scherzer’s numbers aren’t good, but he’s the only one of the group to take a walk and he limits the strikeouts compared to the group as well. He’s definitely the Tigers pitcher who works counts the best and he does have a BABIP that’s a good deal below average (.231). I’m not saying he’s going to break out, but he hits a lot of ground balls and doesn’t chase bad pitches too often. Some of those hits should start to fall in.
You can see that he works the middle of the field nicely and doesn’t get pull happy:
The real key to getting Scherzer out is to avoid his hot spots up and out over the plate. If you put one there, he’s likely to smack it to right for a hit. You need to come middle in or low and away to get him to roll over one to the SS.
Rick Porcello
Porcello burst onto the scene in his rookie year, but has really gone down hill at the dish since then. He doesn’t take his walks and he strikes out too much to have a ton of value at the plate. Just check out his year to year wOBA so far:
Porcello has shown the ability to use the whole field, but he doesn’t make enough contact for the bat control to play up.
Really the key to Porcello is to pitch him inside. You don’t want to miss away because he will make you pay.
Doug Fister
Fister is a much different story. Fister can really hit, even if he doesn’t have a patient approach, and he seems to be getting better with age. In 2011 he had a wRC+ of 133 and this year it’s 286. He’s made the leap from top 30 hitter to all-time great. He’s Babe Ruth and then some!
To get Fister out, you have to make him put the ball on the ground because if he gets it in the air, he’s going to get on base.
And you really don’t want to miss low and over the plate, because that is where Fister eats.
You have to make sure you go up and in or get the ball away from him. Remember, Fister bats left-handed. In fact, Fister seems to have some really nice opposite field gap power based on that spray chart. Take a look at this great swing from 2011. Hey, look who’s pitching!
Fister got an 0-2 fastball down and away from Anibal Sanchez and drove up the gap. Here’s an approximate shot of the ball splitting the fielders.
Fister has become more of a singles hitter as he’s aged, but he’s shown this type of power in the past so you have to be careful.
Scherzer and Porcello are pitchable, but you have to be careful with the big slugging lefty. If you miss to Fister, he’ll make you pay. For a pitcher who is 9 feet tall, this is pretty good form. Notice how he has his head on the ball and isn’t off balance at the point of contact:
Followed by an important discussion:
Next came an interview with Fister about why he bats left-handed. “I’m kind of screwed up in a lot of ways,” is the direct quote.
Then Sanchez gave up a hit to Ichiro and Brendan Ryan to score Fister. Fister had a better day than Sanchez, but we’re getting off track. This isn’t a Marlins and Marines game recap.
The key here is that Fister is the Cabrera of the Tigers pitchers and is the one to watch for. Matt Harvey is probably really happy he won’t have to face him on Saturday because Fister has shown the ability to hit the best arms in the game.
How Was The Game? (August 21, 2013)
The bats came late, but were worth the wait.
Tigers 7, Twins 1
Anibal Sanchez (22 GS, 139.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 4.8 WAR) did his job with the usual magnificence as he gave the Tigers 6.2 innings of 1 run baseball featuring 8 strikeouts and 2 walks. He pitched in a bit of traffic early but escaped with ease and then got rolling in the middle innings before handing it off to the capable hands of Drew Smyly. Trailing 1-0 entering the bottom of the 7th, the Tigers bats got rolling and chased Correia after scoring two runs and placing two more on base. Then, of course, Fielder swung and missed at strike three but got to first on the passed ball while Hunter scored. Get all that? Martinez doubled to add another and then the Tigers piled on in the 8th when Cabrera cleared the bases. The Tigers will do their best to take the series Thursday afternoon with the resurgent Justin Verlander (26 GS, 166.2 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.6 WAR) on the hill.
The Moment: Hunter puts one up the gap to drive in the tying and go-ahead run.
New English D 