2012 Season in Review: National League West
It was a big year for the National League West as the the World Series champion and the newest baseball juggernaut called the left coast home. The Dodgers spent a lot of the season as a surprise contender and then big time spender while the steady as she goes Giants took home the ultimate prize.
Here’s how the division finished up:
And for those of you tracking how it played out, here are the playoff odds from April to October
My early projection for next season looks like this:
And finally, I look back at my 2012 grades for each club.
The NL West Cy Young is Clayton Kershaw’s in a runaway, and Buster Posey takes the NL West MVP over Chase Headley.
Giants sign Pagan to Four Year Deal
Updated (5:24pm): I like the annual value of the contract for the Giants as Pagan has produced two 4+ win seasons in the last 3 seasons and three 2,9+ win seasons in the last four. He’s a good bet to be worth $10 million next season, so the only concern for me is if he’s going to be that guy four years from now. He’s only 31, so I don’t think he’ll drop off in a big way, but it’s hard to say for sure.
The Giants have money to spend after two World Series runs in the last three seasons and this isn’t a bad way to spend it. The commitment is a little long, but that’s the cost of doing business in today’s game. B.J. Upton got 5/75 to only be a little better and a little younger.
4:46pm: The Giants have signed OF Angel Pagan to a 4 year, $40 million deal.
2012 World Series Storylines
With the Fall Classic upon us let’s take a look at the top storylines for the series and end with a completely subjective prediction that should only be used for entertainment purposes.
1) The Tigers Rotation: The Tigers’ starters have rolled through the postseason with a 1.02 ERA. Small sample size and struggling offenses? Sure, but 1.02 is hard to do no matter what. Led by reigning Cy Young and MVP, Justin Verlander, the rotation is stacked. Fister, Sanchez, and Scherzer all range from above average to fringe-elite starters and are all pitching extremely well right now. If the Tigers get the same kind of pitching they got in the ALDS and ALCS in the World Series, the Tigers will coast to a title.
2) The Bullpens: So the Tigers bullpen, not pitching very well right now. Not pitching very well at all. Maybe that’s harsh. Benoit and Valverde aren’t pitching well right now. Coke, Dotel, Alburquerque, Smyly, and Porcello have been solid in the postseason. After two meltdowns, Leyland has unofficially removed Valverde from the closer role and gone with a Phil Coke-by-committee approach that has worked out well. I’m an advocate for closer-by-committee for all teams and at all times of the season, so I think this approach will work for them, but they still have to execute when they are called upon. The Giants on the other hand, have a strong pen with Lopez, Casilla, and Romo in the late innings and Lincecum available as a super reliever. Bottom line? Score on the Tigers pen and the Giants starters if you want to win.
3) Delmon Young: It’s weird just writing that. But Young has hit in a big way during this postseason and last. There’s a good deal of disagreement about whether or not postseason performance is a skill set, but whether it’s luck or ability, Delmon is delivering for the Tigers. If he continues to hit well behind Jackson, Cabrera, and Fielder, it will be hard for San Francisco to limit the Tigers to the two runs they need to if they are going to face those Tigers’ starters. The other Delmon angle is that he has to play LF in Games 1, 2, 6*, and 7*(*if necessary). Since coming to Detroit, Young has been a terrible OF. No one who played more than 150 innings in LF this year posted a worse UZR/150. Granted, Delmon wasn’t asked to play the field very much and was a full time DH, but he’s about to man the position for at least two of the most critical games of the season against a team that puts the ball in play. Hopefully, the Tigers’ arms can punch out enough hitters to limit the Delmon liability.
4) The Fans: Both cities have high energy fans that create a rowdy atmosphere. Both cities have great parks. I don’t know that it will affect the outcome, but it will be cool to watch on TV.
5) The Managers: Bruce Bochy and Jim Leyland are different managers, but also heavily criticized in different ways. Bochy thinks walks are outs in disguise (not my joke, but I can’t remember who told it) and Leyland thinks RBIs are baseball’s more critical stat. That said, both managers have good to excellent reputations as leaders of men, which will certainly be on display with a championship on the line. Most critically, how Leyland has handled the situation with Valverde could result in a giant meltdown or a champagne celebration. Certainly something to watch. Additionally, Leyland will be faced with the tough call on when to pinch hit for his frontline starters, and how he responds will dictate a lot that happens in this series.
6) The Tigers Defense: It wasn’t good this season. It was pretty strong in the ALCS. If it’s solid, that’s a huge swing in the Tigers’ favor.
7) Marco Scutaro: The dude is on fire. If that Marco Scutaro shows up, the Giants might just break through on the Tigers. If he doesn’t, it will be tough for them.
I’m expecting a good series and these teams haven’t seen very much of each other in the last several years and have never met in the World Series. Both clubs will be relying a lot on scouting reports instead of experience with each other, and I think that will make for a very close and unpredictable series. (As a side note, Verlander has said in the past he relies heavily on past at bats versus hitters as opposed to video)
I think this is an objective pick, but I obviously have a strong rooting interest.
Tigers in 6. Austin Jackson WS MVP.
NLCS Game 7: Predicting the Unpredictable
Tonight, Matt Cain and Kyle Lohse will face off in Game 7 of the NLCS. The winning team will host the Tigers on Wednesday in Game 1 of the World Series. That much, barring a rainout, we can be sure of.
But not much else. Baseball is a very unpredictable game. Great teams lose one-third of their games during the regular season and horrible teams win one-third of their games. This year, baseball’s best team lost 39.5% of their games and baseball’s worst team won 34%!
The old adage reminds us that “it’s what you do with the other 1/3 that counts.”
Yet in October, in a match-up of teams who finished the regular season within six games of each other, you can’t really play the long run percentages. Both teams are starting their best pitcher over the last six months. Both teams have won 3 of the last 6 meetings over the last eight days.
The best evidence you can cite if you’re making a prediction is that the Giants are at home and they are facing the Cardinals, who performed worse on the road this year. Other than that, this is a coin flip.
In the playoffs, it’s my view that every single game is a coin flip because all of the teams are roughly equivalent. Even most series are coin flips. You hope your pitchers execute and you pray the other guys’ don’t.
While that may be an oversimplification and you can definitely do things to maximize your chances of winning and minimize them (see Washington, Ron), mostly You Can’t Predict Baseball (@cantpredictball).
Whatever, let’s try anyway!
Why the Giants Will Win
Matt Cain is better than Kyle Lohse, even if it was pretty close in 2012. Plus, the Giants are at home and have won the last two games. Despite how odd this sounds as well, Bochy is probably a better skipper than Matheny and can run out a better army of relievers. The Cards may have a good offense, but AT&T Park is where offense goes to die (apologies to Safeco Field, you can’t even win this).
Why the Cardinals Will Win
Have you watched baseball in the last twelve months? The Cardinals always win elimination games and they do so in spectacular fashion. It’s practically the only thing we can really be sure of anymore.
The Gist
I think the Cardinals edge this one out. Let’s say 4-2 with an 8th inning 3-run homerun from someone weird, like I don’t know, Skip Schumaker. That just feels right. Feels very Cardinals.
So sit back, DVR the debate, and enjoy sudden death, winner take all baseball. There are only 5 to 8 games left in 2012, and I’m not quite ready for it to be over. Except for Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. I’m ready for them to be over.
New English D 