The Morning Edition (July 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix and Holland hold both clubs to 2 runs, but the bullpens settle it in 10 on a Seager bomb
- Gomes walks off on the Padres
- Nolasco does well in front of the scouts, beats the Braves
- Norris pitches well in trade audition to beat the Rays
- CC goes 7 to beat the Twins
- Grilli gives up 2 runs, gets a save anyway because the save rule is silly
- Lohse twirls a gem to top the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Leake in Cinci (1p Eastern)
- Gerrit Cole Hamles matchup! (1p Eastern)
- Shields continues to get no help from his team (2p Eastern)
- Wainwright takes on the Angels (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s your take on the no-hitter war?
Brian Kenny, who we’re quite fond of at New English D, took to the airwaves and Twitter on Wednesday to mock the attention give to no-hitters because walks and hit batters are part of the game and that separating it into hits and other ways to get on base is misguided. While I understand the sentiment and am I big believing in walks as offensive weapons, there is a different argument that Kenny hasn’t responded to at this point. No hitters are not always great performances, I fully agree. A one hit shutout is better than a 5 walk no hitter, but no hitters in all their forms are much rarer that no walk games. Since 1916, there have been more than 9,000 CG with no BB or HBP, but less than 300 CG with no hits. Less than 30 with no baserunners, period. The point here is that one baserunner is one baserunner no matter how he gets on, but it is much rarer to allow no hits than no walks and that is something worth celebrating. Kenny is right that the mainstream press doesn’t cover one hitters appropriately compared to no hitters with several walks, but I think the problem is in the other direction. Kenny thinks no-hitters are no big deal when the pitcher walks a couple guys, but I think we just don’t give enough credit to 1 and 2 hitters. Here at New English D, we make an attempt to highlight all great pitching performances, but do value the no hitter because the no hitter is rare and it’s quirky. After all, baseball is fun. I don’t usually disagree with Kenny, but on this issue I do.
The Homer Bailey (Morning) Edition (July 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Homer Bailey pitches his second career no-hitter, first in MLB this season, against the Giants
- Bailey walked 1 and struck out 9 across 109 pitches
- Bailey is now 11th among pitchers in WAR at 2.9, has a 3.57 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.97 xFIP in 111 IP
- He is getting more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more groundballs than last year
- He did it basically with a fastball and slider, with a handful of changeups and curves mixed in
- He Verlander’d them, throwing harder as the game went on
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey Day! (7p Eastern)
- Felix faces Holland in Texas (8p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to the big A (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did anything else interesting happen that didn’t make the cut in the headlines section?
Lackey was pretty good, some other stuff happened. First no-hitter in New English D history. Exciting stuff!
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (July 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez (coming of the DL July 6th)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)
Let’s get the minor changes out of the way first. Stephen Strasburg is back on the list because he’s off the DL and I’ve decided to let Anibal Sanchez slide because he is schedule to come off the DL when his turn comes up in the rotation this weekend. Clay Buchholz gets the DL treatment, so he’s off the list for the time being because you can’t watch a guy who doesn’t pitch.
Doug Fister moves from the borderline italics section to the permanent list because he’s really good and Chris Sale gets a first even jump for not listed to regular type with his fantastic month of June. Jon Lester has really stumbled since his strong April so he’s off the list until he gets himself back on track, and Matt Moore, whom I really wanted to be great this year, is walking too many batters to be considered must watch. The strikeouts and run prevention is good, but if he doesn’t get his control in line he’ll regress a good deal.
Finally, the list gets three new names in the italics section. Mat Latos and Derek Holland have pitched too well to ignore even if I haven’t personally enjoyed their starts as much as their teams have. Both guys are on notice as I haven’t really fallen in love with their outings, but they’ve earned mention. Finally, Jose Fernandez has been lights out this season and after last night’s gem, he’s earned your attention. The Marlins have two players worth watching! I’m crossing my fingers for Jacob Turner.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
- Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
- Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
- Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
- Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
- Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
- Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
- Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
- Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
- The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Chris Sale have another great outing?
I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.
I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.
The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
- Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
- Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
- Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
- Garza dominates the Brewers
- Kluber gets shelled
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
- James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
- Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this finally the year for the Pirates?
As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.
The Morning Edition (June 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marcum goes 8 scoreless to beat the Sox
- Gordon walks off on the Braves
- Kazmir flirts with a no-hitter, but it took a Johnson blown save to win it
- Zimmermann leads the Nats over the Dbacks
- Lackey dominates the Rockies
- Felix strikes out 11, gives up 2 ER, somehow doesn’t win…
- AJ Griffin CGSO
- Dickey CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Corbin and Strasburg in DC (4p Eastern)
- NERD favorite Kluber in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- Greinke faces the Phillies, hopes not to get in a fight (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Didn’t 2B used to be a glove first position?
We live in a world in which Robinson Cano is 5th among 2B in WAR this season. Carpenter and Kipnis are taking the league by storm and Pedroia and Kendrick are ahead of him too. Cano is 7th among qualifiers in wRC+ for 2B. When did this happen? I remember just a couple seasons back you had like two second basemen who could hit and everyone else was Ramon Santiago. The game is changing, it’s pretty cool. Here’s Dave Cameron writing on a similar subject a little ways back.
The Morning Edition (June 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8, gave up 2 ER, had 13 K and left with the lead. He didn’t get the win. The guy who blew the save did.
- Matt Moore does a Matt Moore impression with 11 K and 6 BB, wins
- The Red Sox score 11 without a HR
- Ichiro walks off as Darvish and Kuroda are ordinary
- Casilla hit as many homeruns as Chris Davis, 1 each
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces the Pirates (330p Eastern)
- Zimmermann takes the hill (7p Eastern)
- Cole Hamels against the Padres (10p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Lincecum (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Come on guys, can we leave Chris Sale alone?
Seriously, I want to discredit the win stat too, but can it not keep happening to the same guy. But. BUT! Let’s play a game regarding Astros pitcher Erik Bedard. Let’s explore his ERA and FIP by month:
He’s getting a lot better each month. This is good news. I bet he’s striking out more batters than he was at the beginning of the season.
Oh. Well. I bet he’s walking fewer people!
Well he is, but he’s still walking and awful lot of people. Hmmm, this is tricky. Maybe it’s because he is allowing fewer homeruns?
Yeah, that’s probably it. Sorry, Bedard this probably isn’t sustainable!
The Morning Edition (June 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Blue Jays finally lost after winning 11 straight
- There were four games, you don’t need me for this. Here are all the scores and boxes.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish versus Kuroda at Yankees Stadium (7p Eastern)
- One of the only reasons to watch the Marlins, Jose Fernandez takes the hill (7p Eastern)
- Wheeler faces Sale (8p Eastern)
- The surprisingly impressive Jeff Locke faces the Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, are the Jays back in this?
A week ago, I questioned if the Blue Jays were buried despite recent success and they didn’t lose from that point until yesterday. They are back in it. Which gave me a new threshold for determining whether or not a team is or is not out of it. I heard someone else spout this idea, so I’m not taking credit for it, I’m merely buying into it. If a team is a good two week stretch away from being in contention, they aren’t out of it. I think this is a good barometer for teams thinking about selling at the deadline and that kind of thing. If we play our best baseball right now for two weeks, would we be in this race? That’s how I’m going to start thinking about the standings. Although, I make it a rule not to spend much time looking at the standings until after the break. But hey, that’s soon.
The Morning Edition (June 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Pirates get 3 in the 9th to tie, 4 in the 10th to take the lead and almost give it back as they outlast the Angels
- Morales walks off on the A’s in 10
- The Mets get 8 as Harvey goes 6 scoreless
- Cashner is brilliant, but Street blows it in the 9th
- Latos K’s 13 Dbacks and the Reds survive a rough inning from Chapman
- Toronto slugs their way to 11 straight wins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee visits Petco (10p Eastern)
- Bumgarner faces Ryu (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How can MLB only schedule four games for today?
Clayton Kershaw has thrown 113.1 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.06 ERA, 2.16 FIP, and 2.9 WAR.
Mat Latos has thrown 103.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.05 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 2.3 WAR.
They aren’t dramatically different, but Kershaw is pretty much better across the board. Kershaw is 5-5 and Latos is 7-1. It’s time to stop caring about pitcher won loss record, it simply isn’t an indicator of individual pitcher performance.
The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
- Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
- Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
- Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
- Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
- Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
- Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
- James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
- Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
- Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until we stop idolizing closers?
I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:
- Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
- High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- Right Handed Specialist
- Left Handed Specialist
- Long Reliever
- Long Reliever
I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.
New English D 