The Morning Edition (May 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Upton slams the Braves past the Dodgers
- Goldschmidt’s 2 bombs back Cahill’s 8 inning gem
- Kuroda blanks the Jays over 8, wins 5-0
- Hellickson gives up 8 runs in 7.2 innings…and gets a win in a 12-10 affair over the O’s
- Kipnis walks off in extras over the M’s
- Phillies bullpen tries to spoil a nice outing by Lee, but the offense bails them out against the Reds
- Harvey twirls 7.2 strong innings and drives in the winning run against the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Quietly strong Zach McAllister faces the Mariners in an attempt to pad his stats (1p Eastern)
- Burnett gets the Astros at home, watch for Ks (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to follow his strong outing against the Marlins 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann faces the Padres at Petco (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do people still take pitcher wins seriously after Hellickson gave up 8 runs and still earned one on Friday?
If I gave you 5 guesses as to who baseball’s best hitter is so far (as of 11:21pm Friday night), would you get it? Miguel Cabrera might be your guess and that’s close, but he’s percentage points behind the leader. Maybe Upton? Or Longoria? Or Choo? All good guesses, but it’s actually Paul Goldschmidt. The Dbacks slugging first baseman has a nice season and a half to his name in the big leagues, but he’s taken a step forward so far this season. His plate discipline is improving and his power is better, while also buoyed by a little good luck. Right now his 185 wRC+ is a fraction of a point ahead of Cabrera and his .338/.421/.656 line is a thing of beauty.
The Morning Edition (May 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman blows Latos’ gem, but the offense bails him out
- Middlebrooks knocks in 3 in the 9th to beat Rodney and the Rays
- The Mets get 4 runs on Wainwright and Niese pitches them to victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Cingrani and Lee hook up in Philly (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz takes on the Twins (8p Eastern)
- Bumgarner takes on Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you guys see Kinsler last night?
It’s happening again. Mike Trout has climbed to 3rd in MLB in Wins Above Replacement (as I write this at 11p 5/16). Some attention was called to his slow start, but here he is on May 16 hitting .291/.365/.545 good for 148 wRC+ and 2.3 WAR. For what it’s worth, in May, he’s hitting .358/.426/.792. I’m feeling better about MVP pick – except for the fact that he’s on a terrible team, so no one will vote for him. And in case it comes up later, he’s .333/.380/.619 with runners in scoring position, not that I’m big on that stat but some people are.
The Morning Edition (May 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Choo gets 4 hits, 2 homers as the Reds beat the Fish
- Mariners crush the Yanks, Alberto Gonzalez pitches, Vernon Wells plays 2B
- Price leaves with an injury as Lester and the Sox roll over the Rays
- Greinke returns to the mound against the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright welcomes the Mets to St. Louis (130p Eastern)
- Cobb tries to last longer, but strikeout just as many against the Sox (7p Eastern)
- Verlander and Darvish (8p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- With the injury to Price, will my prediction that Moore will out-pitch him come true?
The Rays are being the Rays. After a rough start they are back in the thick of the division race and they are doing it with…offense? They have the 3rd best offense by wRC+ (109) and the 23rd best pitching by WAR. Cobb (3.76 FIP), Price (4.00 FIP), and Moore (4.41 FIP) are a formidable top 3, but they aren’t really pitching like aces even if they have the stuff. They’re playing good defense and hitting well. No matter what people say about the Rays, always expect them to play better than the expectations. Just always.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
The Morning Edition (May 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright nearly no-hits the Rockies, settles for a CGSO
- The bullpen nearly blows Darvish’s W in Houston
- Longoria bails out Hellickson with a walk off HR against the Padres
- Stasburg allows 4 unearned runs, but loses anyway to the Cubs
- Buehrle outduels Buchholz as Lind’s HR saves the day
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey against the Pirates (1p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Santana match up in KC (2p Eastern)
- Wilson and Sale try to buoy struggling teams on Sunday Night Baseball (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Cardinals or Tigers staff, which is better?
If you evaluate the above question by WAR, it’s the Tiger easily. They’re first in baseball at 9.5 (11p Eastern Saturday), more than 2 WAR ahead of second place. The Cardinals are 5th, a full four wins back. Yet the Cards ERA is a sparkling 2.92 while the Tigers are at 3.45. If you look at FIP, the Tigers are ahead 2.58 to 3.06. This is a good lesson in run prevention and expected run prevention. The Tigers out pitch the Cardinals in two of three areas in which the pitcher has control; strikeouts and homeruns. What’s funny is that the Cardinals don’t have a much better defense. It appears that they are getting a little better sequencing than the Tigers right now. Additionally, the Tigers starters have 7.5 to the Cardinals 5.6 WAR – so the Cardinals are weighed down by a terrible bullpen. They are 1 and 2 in SP WAR and 3 and 27th in reliever WAR. It’s a fun debate however you wish to slice it and I wouldn’t mind having either starting staff, though I’m partial to the Tigers.
The Morning Edition (May 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Baxter hits a pinch hit walk off single to lift the Mets over the Pirates
- Scott Kazmir, that Scott Kazmir, struck out 10 and walked none in 6 innings to beat the A’s
- Price pitches well, Dickey pitches well enough as the Rays get a walk off walk in St. Pete
What I’m Watching Today:
- Fast starter Alex Cobb gets the Padres at home (7p Eastern)
- Jon Lester takes the hill against the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller welcomes the Rockies to St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Hudson and Cain compete in a groundball off in San Fran (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Greinke’s rehab start go?
Here comes Evan Longoria! For many years, I’ve been saying he’s one of the best players in the sport, but he’s struggled to stay on the field. Fingers crossed, he’s having a great season and if he keeps himself in the lineup, he might sniff out his first MVP award (in one of the few years I didn’t predict he’d win). Right now, he’s hitting .331/.397/.600, good for a 176 wRC+. He’s not quite outhitting Cabrera (186 wRC+), but he’s in the ballpark and outfielding him handily. At this moment, he leads AL position players in Wins Above Replacement with 2.3 and trails only Carlos Gomez (!) for the major league lead.
The Morning Edition (May 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a perfect game into the 7th, loses it on an infield single, and winds up striking out 12, walking none over 9 innings – but the Mets needed 10 innings to beat the White Sox 1-0
- J.A. Happ takes a line drive off the side of his head, taken off the field on a stretcher (condition unknown at press time)
- The Reds get two homers in the 9th to walk off on Kimbrel
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix Hernandez is on the hill in Pittsburgh, but so is the quite frontman AJ Burnett (1230p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw welcomes the Dbacks to Chavez Ravine (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Happ going to be alright?
Matt Harvey (4-0. 49.1 IP, 1.28 ERA, 1.92 FIP, 1.9 WAR) did it again. You may remember he made the inaugural Appointment Television rankings and he showed why on Tuesday. He retired the first 20 hitters he faced, until he allowed a two out infield hit in the 7th inning, and then went right back to dominating and finished the night with 12 strikeouts, 0 walks, 1 hit, and 0 runs in 9 innings of work. His team couldn’t muster a run until the 10th, so he didn’t get a win, but he was eye-popping fantastic. Granted, he faced the league’s second worst offense in the White Sox, but that kind of domination is difficult in any setting. I’ve been buying Harvey for a while, as regular readers will note, but this is just getting out of hand. In 17 ML starts, he’s allowed 3 or more earned runs just three time. He’s allowed more than 5 hits just four times. The 24 year old righty is certainly must watch TV, but he’s closing in on bona fide ace status. Here are the names he shares the top 9 of the pitcher WAR leaderboard with: Sanchez, Buchholz, Verlander, Darvish, Wainwright, Hernandez, Scherzer, Shields. That’s the company he’s keeping.
The Morning Edition (May 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Indians homer their way to a win over the A’s
- Shields throws 8 scoreless, but his offense fails him as the the White Sox win in 11
- Simmons homers twice as the Braves beat the Reds 7-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Medlen and Bailey bring identical 3.38 ERAs to GABP (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces baseball’s second worse offense, the White Sox, at Citi (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy and Beckett face off in a battle of erstwhile stars (10p Eastern)
- And don’t forget Sanchez vs Zimmermann in DC! (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Harvey respond coming off his first short outing?
Don’t look now, but 20 year old 3B Manny Machado is doing a Trout and Harper impression and has placed himself 4th on the WAR leaderboard (1.7). Machado is hitting .309/.352/.522 for a 135 wRC+ to go with his sterling 6.9 UZR/6 DRS. He’s playing gold glove defense at third and he’s hitting like a star. We’ve talked a lot about how Harper and Trout are generational talents and they’ve spoiled us for other young players, but Mr. Machado isn’t so sure he’s ready to give up so soon. As I write this, just one AL position player has a higher WAR. Perhaps you’ve heard of him: Miguel Cabrera.
The Morning Edition (May 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Lorenzo Cain drives in 2 in the first to back Guthrie’s CGSO against the White Sox
- Jose Fernandez allows 1 hit in 7 innings while striking out 9 Phillies in his first ML win
- Strasburg gives up 2 homeruns in 7 innings, but the Nats score 1 in the top of the 9th to outlast the Bucs
- Wainwright struggles for the first time (5 ER in 5.1 IP), but the Cards deliver in the 9th to win
- Dickey gets lit up by the Mariners, Blue Jays fall 8-1
- Hughes throws 8 scoreless as the Yanks top the A’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Hudson tries to an encore to his 200th win against Niese and the Mets (1p Eastern)
- Halladay looks to straighten out again against the Marlins (230p Eastern)
- Jon Lester. Yu Darvish. Arlington, Texas. (3p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb takes his hot start to Coors Field (4p Eastern)
- Strikeout happy Ryu gets struggling ace Matt Cain at AT&T (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- On a day in which Strasburg and Wainwright were on the mound, how did Guthrie, Fernandez, and Hughes headline the night? (Well, Scherzer did his part!)
R.A. Dickey…what’s going on? I certainly expected some regression from the 2012 peak in moving to the AL and a hitter friendly park, but this is pretty serious so far. We’re not deep enough into the season to totally dismiss a small sample size issue, but it’s getting to the point where it just doesn’t look like he’s going to pitch at or around ace levels for the foreseeable future. He’s 2-5 in 7 starts over 42 IP with a 7.07 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9 to go with a 5.36 ERA and 5.19 FIP. Granted, FIP isn’t a great judge of knuckleballers, but the other numbers don’t exactly hearten Blue Jays fans or Dickey fantasy owners (the present author included). If you go back to the much more reasonable 2010-2011 seasons, Dickey’s numbers this year don’t match those either. His strikeouts are up, but his walks are too. His ERA is way up, but his groundball rate is down considerably. That’s the item on the list that catches my attention the most. I haven’t watch Dickey enough to know, but I’m curious if this is the league figuring him out. Maybe he’s not much different and hitters are just getting smarter. I’m not sure, and I know there is some injury talk, but either way, the Mets are starting to look like even better for the offseason deal. The Jays can still turn it around if Dickey finds his groove, but I’m starting to wonder if he will.
The Morning Edition (May 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holliday and Beltran homer behind a smooth performance by Shelby Miller
- Derek Holland dominates the Red Sox enroute to a 7-0 win
- David Wright homers off Kimbrel to send it to extras where the Mets win 7-5
- Felix Hernandez throws 8 shutout innings in Toronto
- AJ Burnett sharp again in 3-2 win over the Nats
- Kershaw flirts with a no-hitter, but loses it in the 6th ahead of a Posey walk-off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright takes the Cardinals north to face the Crew (4p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Pirates in his first start since experiencing forearm tightness (4p Eastern)
- Patrick Corbin and his 1.91 ERA head to SD to face the Padres (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which pitching performance did you most enjoy on Friday?
It probably wouldn’t surprise the astute fan that Carlos Santana is crushing the baseball right now. His .383/.468/.679 line produces a 215 wRC+. That’s pretty awesome. To give you a sense of how good that is, Babe Ruth only had a wRC+ higher than 215 four times and his career wRC+ is 197. Probably not sustainable, but damn impressive as he is a 130 wRC+ career hitter. Man, the Indians can hit. They’d be good if their rotation wasn’t terrible.
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