The Morning Edition (June 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix out duels Phelps, but the Yanks score on the M’s pen to win 2-1
- Puig has 3 hits, but the Braves pound the Dodgers 8-1
- EJax is strong as the Cubs beat the Bucs
- Lohse goes 8 strong as the Brewers beat the Phils
- The O’s gets 6 HR to outslug the Rays
- Zimmermann goes 7 as the Nats blank the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Silent ace Alex Cobb faces the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw goes against the Dbacks (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma gets the Astros at Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How’s everyone enjoying Yasiel Puig?
I haven’t written much about Puig because he’s been playing on the coast and I usually write this post before games end out west. So far, he’s hitting .464/.483/.964, good for 307 wRC+. That’s pretty good by any measure, even if it is just 29 PA. Puig certainly won’t hit like this for the whole season, but he’s impressing early and fans are loving him. It’s almost as if the Dodgers shouldn’t have traded for Crawford and/or extended Andre Ethier into their declines. It will be interesting to see what they do once everyone gets healthy, but such a scenario doesn’t look good for Ethier who has been worth 0.1 WAR in 228 PA. For perspective, that’s less than Zach Greinke has in 16 PA. Zach Greinke, the pitcher.
How Was The Game? (June 9, 2013)
A nice, clean sweep.
Tigers 4, Indians 1
It’s rare that everything goes right during a baseball game, but that seemed to happen today. Jose Alvarez (1-0, 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 0.1 WAR) was stellar in his MLB debut, delivering 6 innings of 3 hit, 1 run, 1 walk, and 7 strikeout baseball in place of Anibal Sanchez and left the game with the score tied 1-1 thanks to an Avila sac fly and a Raburn homerun. In the bottom of the 6th inning, as Alvarez was basking in his debut, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder got themselves on base ahead of the imposing Don Kelly who turned on a pitch low and in and sent it into the seats to give the Tigers a 4-1 lead. And then something even more amazing happened. Jim Leyland actually called on his best relievers and brought Smyly into the game for 2 innings before turning it over to Benoit who added a scoreless 9th. The win completes the sweep and moves the Tigers 5.5 games ahead in the AL Central thanks to a 5-1 homestand. They’ll hop a plane to KC and will have Doug Fister (5-3, 77 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 2.4 WAR) on the mound for game one of the series on Monday.
The Moment: Don Kelly breaks the tie with a 3 run homer in the 6th.
How Was The Game? (June 8, 2013)
Another stellar day.
Tigers 6, Indians 4
The Tigers sent Rick Porcello (3-3, 63 IP, 4.86 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.0 WAR) to the hill in the middle game of the series with the Indians today and things went exactly according to plan. Porcello continued to impress after allowing hits to the first two batters of the game, he allowed just 3 more baserunners before he left the game after 6 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 BB, and 7 K. With another great start under his belt Porcello continues to compare himself nicely to the previous versions of himself and the rest of the league, as he now ranks 8th in xFIP with 2.97, which is better than any qualifying pitcher from 2012.
The offense also performed well, delivering 4 runs in the 2nd, mostly on a Prince Fielder double, and 2 in the 3rd, while keeping pressure on the Indians pitchers all game long. Ryan Raburn also had fun with the Tigers bullpen by hitting a 2 run HR to make it a 2 run game in the 7th. The win gives the Tigers the series, a 34-26 record, and a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central heading into Sunday’s finale looking to sweep behind Jose Alvarez (5-4, 74.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.50 FIP at AAA Toledo) who will make his MLB debut in place of Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 78 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.79 FIP, 3.4 WAR), who hopes to miss just one start with shoulder stiffness.
The Moment: Fielder clears the bases in the 2nd.
The Nine Best Names in MLB
Entering today (June 8th, 2013), 1027 individuals have made an appearance in a major league game this season. This ranges from single AB to 80+ innings on the mound. Today, I’d like to evaluate the coolness or baseballness of their names. The rules are simple. To be eligible, you have to have played in an MLB game this year. That means Stryker Trahan (minors) and Skye Bolt (college) aren’t on the list. Injured and retired players don’t count. Here is a complete list of eligible players (Baseball Names).
This list is subjective and entirely my own, but it’s right.
9. Kyle Blanks (Padres)
8. Dexter Fowler (Rockies)
7. Addison Reed (White Sox)
6. Clete Thomas (Twins)
Blanks, Fowler, and Reed made the list over a lot of good candidates, but their names just sound like names you’d hear on a baseball field. Clete Thomas belongs for obvious reasons. His first name (technically his middle name) is a piece of baseball equipment.
5. Homer Bailey (Reds)
4. Josh Outman (Rockies)
Homer Bailey has the ironic distinction of having his name be the opposite of what he hopes to accomplish on the mound, while Josh Outman’s last name is exactly what he’s going for – outs man.
3. Chase Utley (Phillies)
Chase Utley probably doesn’t need any introduction. Chase and Utley would probably get you on the list individually, but Chase Utley together is a lock.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians)
Cabrera is one of baseball’s most bland names, except when your first name sounds like a type of layered pastry.
1. Buster Posey (Giants)
Buster and Posey, like Chase and Utley, are probably good enough to make the list carrying a “John” or “Smith,” but together Buster Posey just screams baseball.
What names did we leave out that you like? Where you would put Trahan and Bolt on this list? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter.
The Morning Edition (June 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tropical Storm Andrea washes out 3 games and soaks the offices of New English D with 5 inches of rain
- Wainwright cruises as the Cards thump the Reds
- Jennings’ 2 run HR lifts the Rays over the O’s
- Liriano walks 5, but goes 7 to beat the Cubs 2-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish goes north to play the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Harvey (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz goes against the Angels (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who is this week’s surprising leaderboard climber?
That would be Michael Cuddyer. All of a sudden, he’s 6th in MLB in wRC+ with 161, trailing just Davis, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Goldschmidt, and CarGo. Take your time, read that list. What do you see? Three Colorado Rockies. They have 3 of the top 6 hitters in baseball and 4 of the top 28 (Fowler), but then everyone else is below MLB average and they’re 10th overall with 101 wRC+ as a club. I had them as one of the worst teams in baseball coming in to the season, but their pitching is performing better than I expected, but the key is the health of their big hitters. They don’t have the depth to fill in, but Tulo and CarGo are as good as almost any pair in the game when they are healthy.
How Was The Game? (June 7, 2013)
Full of good signs.
Tigers 7, Indians 5
Up 2.5 in the Central and looking to burn the candle at both ends, the Tigers welcomed the Indians to Comerica Park hoping to pad their lead. They did so with a solid outing from Justin Verlander (8-4, 80 IP, 3.71 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.8 WAR) who went 7 innings, only allowing 3 runs that all came in the same inning that featured two infield hits and a botched flyball. The stat lines haven’t looked VERLANDERISH, but he does look to be past the three or four start run of iffy command and bad results. Both Hunter and Martinez both had 3 hit games and the only Tigers not to register a hit were Cabrera and Fielder. Martinez’s 3 hits featured one of each variety of which he is capable – a single, double, and homerun – indicating that his luck is starting to turn. Jose Valverde did his best to spoil it, but he was only able to turn a four run lead into a 2 run victory after two 9th inning homers and a single. The win moves the Tigers to 33-26 and gives them a shot to win the set with Cleveland tomorrow afternoon behind breakout pitcher Rick Porcello (2-3, 57 IP, 5.21 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 0.8 WAR). Of note, below is a list of pitchers with lower xFIPs than Porcello (min. 50 IP):
- Sanchez, 2.41
- Hernandez, 2.50
- Darvish, 2.54
- Wainwright, 2.54
- Scherzer, 2.80
- Cobb, 2.91
- Harvey, 2.92
- Porcello, 3.03
The Moment: Verlander attempts to avoid the Handshake of Doom by trying to enter the dugout via the auxiliary entrance.
Ballpark Review: PNC Park
Home of the Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh, PA
It’s been three and a half months since I’ve reviewed a ballpark for this series, but having been to only 7 active MLB parks, I didn’t want to rush through this series faster than I could see new venues. But yesterday, I finally got around to something I’ve been thinking about for a while: I built a database of every MLB and MiLB stadium to help track my progress as I make my quest to visit them all. This rekindled my interest in this series, and here we are.
PNC Park is an incredible stadium. Setting aside Comerica Park for personal attachment reasons, PNC my favorite park by far. It is scenic without being too ornate as to distract from the actual game and has solid dining options.
The view of the river, bridges, and Pittsburgh skyline is excellent and foul territory is scare enough that you’re very close to the action even when your seats aren’t great. I’ve been to three games there and sat in the upper deck twice and lower deck once. From behind the plate in the upper deck, you were still right in the action and had almost every inch of the field in view. From the lower deck, you have good angles pretty much anywhere you sit. Not only is left field an interesting size, but the right field wall is a throwback to the old school scoreboard and the tantalizing hope of seeing a ball fly into the river keeps fans coming back.
Ticket and food prices are generally pretty reasonable and the food and beverage selection is diverse and tasty. I’ve had standard hot dogs, fries, and chicken strips, all of which were above average for ballpark food.
Another thing I like about PNC is its location. It’s on the north side of the river near a couple museum, casino tourist attraction type places along with some very nice hotels, but it’s only a short walk from the more typical Pittsburgh downtown area. Not only is the park a fun place to be, but it’s generally a nice area to hang out in before they open the gates and after the final out.
I consider PNC the standard by which all other parks are compared as it has the view and amenities of a big city park with the close to play feel of a minor league stadium. It’s simply an excellent place to enjoy a game and is a must visit for all serious fans. I’ve previously rated Nationals’ Park, giving it a 7 out of 10 relative to its contemporaries (minor league parks and MLB parks are only compared to other parks at their levels) and PNC clearly sets the curve at 10. The only complaint you can have about PNC is that the Pirates play there, and even they have turned themselves into a watchable club.
Stadium Rater (scale 1-10): 10
The Morning Edition (June 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The first night of the MLB Draft features some surprises, Appel, Bryant, Gray go 1-2-3
- Rosales’ 10th inning HR beats the White Sox
- Four run 8th gets the Royals past the Twins
- Miller, after being named to my Appointment TV list, Ks 9 in 6 innings and homers as the Cards beat the Dbacks
- Ortiz walks off as Holland and Lester both meander through 6
What I’m Watching Today:
- Middle rounds of the MLB Draft (1p Eastern)
- Harvey and Hernandez face off in New York (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces the Reds (7p Eastern)
- Lee heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Cain versus Corbin in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kuroda gets Bonderman’s 2nd start (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which clubs will look back on last night as a building block en route to a title?
I’m not the world’s best guy for draft analysis, but I’ll give you my brief thoughts. First of all, if you’re looking for who went where, I can direct you here, among other places. The reason I’m not the best guy for draft analysis is not because I don’t know anything about amateur baseball, but rather because I don’t like to give analysis that isn’t based on my own observation. Almost everyone who was and will be drafted this weekend are guys I haven’t seen myself, so I’d rather direct you to guys like Keith Law or Jonathan Mayo or Baseball America. I could give you reports about guys based on things I’ve read, but you can read. I’m much more useful to you as someone who analyzes baseball players I’ve seen in person and on TV and in the box score. I have, however, seen Colin Moran, who went 6th overall to the Marlins. He’s a 3B with a great approach and a very good hit tool. Some question if the power will come and if he can stick at third, but I’m bullish there. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but a good approach can play for me. Here are some picks I liked from the first day:
Plenty of teams got good players, but those stand out to me as teams who made good choices when presented with a lot of options.
More on VMart’s Bad Luck
Early this week, I wrote about Victor Martinez’s tough luck on hard hit balls this season and showed that his Hard Hit Average is all out of whack with his on field results. I’d like to offer a little more data to illustrate the point as Martinez made some post game comments today regarding the hard hit problem:
I took a look at Martinez’s wRC+ this season relative to league average, his 2011 season, and his career average entering the day and broke it down by groundballs, flyballs, and line drives. I think you’ll find it interesting.
Notice how Martinez is a little below where we would expect him to be historically on line drives, but not so far off that we would think anything more than some aging at work. But look at the other numbers. My goodness, look at them. On groundballs, he has a 1 wRC+ which is about 20% lower than we’d expect. On flyballs it’s even worse. He’s at -3 despite a general expectation he’d be north of 100. I’m not saying Martinez isn’t declining or having a down year, I’m providing evidence that he’s been unlucky. It might not be everything, but it’s something.
I showed you earlier this week that Martinez is hitting the ball hard, and now I’m showing you how exactly that bad luck is playing out in his results by batted ball type. The great thing here is that the odds are in his favor. There’s no way this keeps up, and it might already be turning around. Don’t look now, but the hits might just be starting to fall.
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (June 2013 Update)
Last month, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Clay Buchholz
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez
- Jon Lester
- Matt Moore
- Shelby Miller
- Doug Fister
Stephen Strasburg(placed on DL 6/5)
Since the original list came out in early May, we’ve made a few changes. First, Stephen Strasburg is off the list because he’s on the DL, which is an arbitrary rule built into the system. He’ll return to the list once he’s activated. After that, you’ll notice all of May’s borderline candidates have made the leap into the stable portion of the list with the exception of Matt Moore. I love Moore’s stuff, but despite the good record, strikeouts, and ERA, a guy who walks 4.78 batters per 9 just isn’t a sure bet for this list. He remains in italics.
The other borderline guys from May, Buchholz, Scherzer, Zimmermann, Sanchez, and Lester have all clearly demonstrated their staying power. Buchholz, Scherzer, and Sanchez are contending with Felix for the AL Cy Young right now and Zimmermann and Lester are both showing that they are top 15 starters again, even if they aren’t quite dominating like they did in April.
Two pitchers join the list, as well, in the form of Doug Fister and Shelby Miller. Now I’ve personally always been a giant Fister fan thanks to his great control and supreme efficiency, but he’s shown over the last two years that he is a legitimate leading man. As I write this he’s 9th in MLB in pitcher WAR (2.5) and has one of the league’s lowest walk rates (1.4 per 9) and is coming off a string of 3 straight gems/near gems.
Miller was another guy I was watching when I made the initial list, but he needed to do a little more to make the cut because he had so little big league experience. That’s no longer a problem for the 15th best pitcher by WAR this year (1.9) who has yet to allow more than 3 runs in a start this season. His ERA and FIP are sparkling and even when his HR/FB regresses, he’ll still be a very good starter thanks to excellent strikeout and walk numbers.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
New English D 