2012 Season in Review: Boston Red Sox
69-93, 5th in the AL East
Characterizing the 2012 Red Sox is a difficult task. They won less than 70 games with a big payroll and moderately high expectations. But they had also come off one of the worst September collapses in history and told Terry Francona not to come back in favor of Bobby Valentine. Players got hurt and old and disgruntled. All of that sounds really bad. And it was. But late summer and fall shined brighter. Valentine is gone. Big contracts have been shed and Ben Cherington may have wrestled control of the franchise away from the drunk at the wheel ownership.
On the field in 2012 a number of hitters performed well. Dustin Pedroia led the way (4.5 WAR) and was backed up by David Ortiz (3.0 in 90 games), Adrian Gonzalez (2.8), Cody Ross (2.4), Will Middlebrooks (2.1), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.0). Heck, I almost spelled Saltalamacchia correctly without looking it up, so that’s something in itself.
So while the offense was respectable, the pitching struggled. Jon Lester was good (3.3), but not nearly the ace he needed to be. When Felix Doubront (2.1) is second on your staff in WAR, that should say a lot. Clay Buchholz (1.9) and Josh Beckett (1.8) disappointed and a lot of starts went to Aaron Cook (0.2), Dice-K Matsuzaka (-0.1), and Daniel Bard (-0.4), so that should also say something about your team.
The bullpen didn’t impress, but they had some nice pieces. Nothing to overcome the poor starting pitching, but nothing that caused a great downfall on their own.
In general, the team performed poorly. Every other day, clubhouse gossip came out about people not getting along and the manager fighting off mutinies. It was a supremely silly affair and it is unsurprising that the team played poorly in its wake. Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, and Youkilis were all sent packing in the hopes of starting over.
It looks like they will have that chance. With the additions of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, and David Ross among others, the Sox should be a leaner fighting machine in 2013. Their pitching should bounce back to some degree and John Farrell should offer a better environment than Bobby V.
This will likely be a year of transition for the Sox. They dumped a lot of heavy contracts on the Dodgers, so they will have flexibility to build a better team going forward. Those fixes aren’t all in place, so the immediate prospects aren’t great, even if the long term prospects are solid. This is a club rich in dollars and fan support and lacking in any serious long term commitments.
September 2011 was the fall from grace. Early 2012 was rock bottom. By September 2012, the Sox were back on track, even if it will take a while to get back to the promise land.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 78-84
The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013
Last week I rolled out the best catchers for 2013. And let me tell you, that list was a lot easier. The first base crop is great at the top, but then it gets a little bit less clear. Plenty of debate should come from this, but here are my top nine first basemen for the 2013 season.
9. Eric Hosmer (Royals)
Yeah, yeah, yeah his 2012 was a disaster. But I’m a believer. He’s very young and I’m comfortable writing off one bad season after he broke onto the scene in style in 2011 and during spring training last season. I love his glove and when he squares up a pitch, it can go a long way. If 2013 doesn’t go well for him, I’ll back off, but for now, I’m still a believer.
8. Anthony Rizzo (Cubs)
If you multiply the half season he played in the majors in 2012 by 2, he’d have been a top five first basemen. Not everyone is capable of doing that over a full season, but I think Rizzo is. His defense was good for the Cubs and I really like his swing. Solid average and good power. If he can improve the patience a touch, which I think he will, Rizzo could be a star.
7. Allen Craig (Cardinals)
Craig is a bit of tossup. His glove at first isn’t wonderful, but he’s a phenomenal hitter. He mixes contact and power in an excellent fashion. If he can stay healthy he’s great, if not, he won’t be. Simple as that. I’ll bet on only a couple weeks on the DL and say he’ll be a top nine 1B.
6. Mark Teixeira (Yankees)
Teixeira does certain things well. He hits for power. He walks. He plays excellent defensive. What he does not do well, is make contact. People who don’t make contact don’t crack the top five.
5. Freddie Freeman (Braves)
Freeman walks, hits for power, and plays solid defense. The average needs a boost and I buy a breakout from the young Braves first basemen. His lineup is better than last year and he’ll be another year older and wiser. Freeman is a guy to watch in 2013.
4. Adam LaRoche (Nationals)
LaRoche is also someone who combines power, walks, and defense. Well he did in 2012. He’s a bit of a wild card, but I’m going for it. He was a mess in 2011 due to a low BABIP, but I’m going to bank on him for one more year in the middle of that great Nationals lineup.
3. Prince Fielder (Tigers)
Prince is an excellent hitter. He hits for average. He draws walks. He has prodigious power. He hits behind the game’s best slugger and is one of the most durable baseball players in the world. He doesn’t play good defense though, so he can’t crack the top two.
2. Albert Pujols (Angels)
2012 was a down year for The Machine, but 30 HR and 3.9 WAR is better than a down year for almost every person on Earth. Pujols just set a very high bar. The future Hall of Famer is probably on the decline, but coming down from his insane peak still leaves a lot of room for him to be great. Look for a couple more great years before the party is over.
1. Joey Votto (Reds)
There is a case to be made the Votto is the best offensive player in baseball. In 75% of a season in 2012, he posted a 5.9 WAR. He’s a good defender, too, but man the offense. I’m just going to let his slash line do the talking, because really, what could I say that it doesn’t? .337/.474/.567. Read that again and let it sink in. Unbelievable.
2012 Season in Review: American League Central
The AL Central produced the MVP, pennant winner, and Cy Young runner up in 2012, but other than that, it wasn’t the most exciting year for baseball’s most made fun of division. Sure the Tigers boast a lot of stars and Phil Humber threw a perfect game, but that didn’t earn them a lot of respect.
Here’s how the final standings shook out:
And this is how it played out over time:
Followed by my 2013 projections:
And a final look at my 2012 grades:
AL Central MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander
2012 Season in Review: Detroit Tigers
88-74, 1st in the AL Central
Lost in the World Series to the Giants
It was a banner year for the Tigers, the hometown team of this website. There was a great deal of fan angst about the club’s performance for much of the summer which fans felt was lackluster (the performance, not the summer). However, the team won the division and the AL pennant and produced the AL MVP and Cy Young runner up. Could the team have played better? Sure, every team could. But the Tigers had a great season on the backs of great performances.
Miguel Cabrera won the MVP and Triple Crown in 2012 and posted an excellent (7.1) WAR. Despite the media narrative, he didn’t carry the team on his own. Austin Jackson, who missed time with an injury, tallied 5.5 WAR as well. Prince Fielder (4.9), Jhonny Peralta (2.6), Alex Avila (2.6 in 116 games), and Andy Dirks (1.6 in 88 games) all did their part too. The Tigers were among the best offenses in baseball by any measure even with two of baseball’s worst regulars, Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch getting lots of at bats.
If the offense was good, the pitching was awesome. Led as always by all-universe ace Justin Verlander (6.8), the Tigers staff dominated. Max Scherzer (4.6) broke out and Doug Fister (3.6 in 26 starts) followed up his ridiculous final two months of 2011. Rick Porcello (2.9), despite fan opinion, was among the game’s best backend starters. Drew Smyly (1.7 in 18 starts) was also very good as a rookie fifth starter when he was healthy. For the last two months of the season, Anibal Sanchez (1.4 in 12 starts) wore the Old English D as well and contributed greatly.
The bullpen was volatile. Dotel did his job most nights and Villarreal and Benoit went through very hot and very cold streaks. Valverde had a typical high save, low value season. It wasn’t a lockdown pen, but it was certainly good enough.
The Tigers shot out of the gate in early April before stumbling heavily in May. By the All-Star break they were back near the front of the division, but couldn’t quite take control. It looked like the White Sox were going to hold them off until a late September surge pushed them over the edge. A five game series win against the A’s in the ALDS preceded a quick four game sweep of the Yankees in the ALCS. The World Series didn’t go well, but the Tigers outlasted 28 other teams in 2012.
Some big names had big years while some supporting players had down years off their 2011 highs. In general, the Tigers underperformed their regular season expectations as a whole, but they stood atop the AL when it was over.
The cavalry is coming in 2013, too. A full season of Anibal Sanchez will improve the club and subbing in Torii Hunter for Brennan Boesch is certainly a few win swing as well. Victor Martinez should be back at full strength to replace the Delmon Young shaped whole in the Tigers batting order. Infante spend a full year at second in lieu of a mix and match. It’s also not unreasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back from Avila and Peralta, probably not to their 2011 highs, but somewhere about 2013.
Put that all together, and the Tigers could easily be 10-15 wins better. That would be a huge improvement and certain return to the postseason. But that of course, assumes no one will get hurt and no one will regress from 2012. It’s certainly reasonable to assume a 5-7 win bump for the team in 2013.
So after two straight postseason berths and an AL pennant, the Tigers will enter 2013 with a chance to win the big prize.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
Helping Michael Bourn Find Work
Michael Bourn is still unemployed. He was one of the best players available on the free agent market this year and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012, but he does not have a team lined up for 2013.
Before going any further we can assume that the reason for this is that Bourn wants more money than any team is willing to offer right now and believes that some team will meet his price before the season begins. At some point, a team will either match his price or he will decide to lower his price, which a team will then decide to meet.
That’s a pretty straightforward understanding of how negotiations work. One side or both sides are currently unrealistic about the expectations of the other side. This will change eventually and Bourn will sign, the questions is, with who?
What teams are most likely to pay the most for Bourn?
Bourn is no slouch. He is entering his age 30 season and has posted 4.0 WAR or better in four straight seasons with a 6.4 coming in 2012. He’s an elite defender (career UZR/150 of 11.5 and a UZR of 22.4 in 2012) and baserunner (5 straight years of 40 or more SB) and gets on base at at .340 clip or better.
In terms of straight value, you’re looking at a player who was work between $20 and $30 million last season and figures to be worth at least $15 million or more over each year of a 3 or 4 year deal if he stays healthy. And there is no reason to think he won’t stay healthy.
Throw all of that in a blender with current team rosters and what do you get? A list of teams that might sign Bourn.
Royals (5%):
The Royals probably don’t have the money to swing Bourn, but man do they need him. With two outfield spots filled by Cain and Francoeur, there is a lot of room for improvement. Bourn over Francoeur in 2012 would be worth something like seven wins in the standings. Even if you expect Frenchie to regress upward in 2013, there’s a lot of room to improve on a team that seems like they are committing to going for it over the next two seasons.
Reds (5%):
This only makes sense if the Reds are willing to make Ludwick the highest paid fourth outfielder in baseball. With Choo and Bruce locked into the outfield, this is a long shot but the Reds would benefit greatly from upgrading on defense and at the top of the lineup.
Braves (10%):
The Braves could resign Bourn even after adding Upton. If BJ will move to left to accommodate Bourn, the Braves could put Prado at third and have one of the better lineups in the NL. It might be hard to make that work financially given what some other teams might be willing to offer, but it’s worth exploring for both sides.
Blue Jays (10%):
The Jays are going for it in 2013. That much is clear. They’ve taken on a good amount of payroll through trades over the last couple months, but their outfield is a bit thin. Colby Rasmus is slated to be the everyday centerfielder and he isn’t exactly a picture of consistency. Additionally, Jose Bautista is coming off a wrist injury and Melky Cabrera is plagued by questions of his true ability following a steroid suspension. If the Jays can afford Bourn, he would be a good fit. They probably don’t want to make a four year offer, but if he decides to take a pillow contract, a one year, $18-20 million deal from Toronto might make sense.
Rangers (15%):
The Rangers can and should probably get by with a Martin and Gentry platoon in centerfield, but Bourn would be a nice addition to offset the loss of Josh Hamilton. However, the lineup is already crowded with Andrus, Profar, Olt, and Kinsler, so the Rangers are probably best left to keep their outfield unblocked.
Mets (25%):
The Mets are good fit for Bourn. They need outfield help, presumably have some money to work with and are not that far off from contention. Their rotation has the potential to be great in the coming few seasons and they have a number of players on the roster who could work as compliments to a contending club. They need a couple more core pieces, and a great defensive centerfielder and speed demon would be perfect for them.
White Sox (30%):
The White Sox make a ton of sense for Bourn. De Aza, Viciedo, Rios are capable outfielders on an average team, but they aren’t a group that you imagine would get you to a world series. If Bourn was on the team instead of Viciedo in 2012, they might have beaten out the Tigers for the AL Central. Additionally, Konerko is in the last year of his deal and Dunn has one more after that. A backloaded deal could easily work to make Bourn a piece of the Sox franchise for years to come.
The Nine Best Catchers for 2013
In this week’s installment of The Nine we’re ranking the best catchers for the 2013 season. The top of this list was easy, but the backend was a bit tricky. Several very good players were left off the list.
Apologies to: Carlos Santana, Alex Avila, AJ Ellis, Jonathan Lucroy, and AJ Pierzynski.
9. Ryan Hanigan (Reds)
Hanigan may seem like an odd choice if you don’t follow the game closely. He doesn’t hit for power, even in one of the great hitters’ parks in the sport, but his .365 OBP was ninth best in 2012 and he’s consistently proven his ability to post that type of number while some of the other contenders have shown more fluctuation. However, Hanigan is on this list for his glove. No catcher posted a higher UZR (11.2) than Hanigan in 2012 and his ability to lead pitchers and receive certainly makes him a top five defensive catcher in baseball.
8. Brian McCann (Braves)
McCann had a down year in 2012, but I’m banking on him having another solid season before his decline gets into full swing. He’s been a top flight offensive catcher and his defense is average or better. His biggest asset is his power, which should be back for 2013.
7. Carlos Ruiz (Phillies)
Ruiz has developed into one of the better offensive catchers in baseball over the last couple seasons and posted a career best 5.5 WAR in 2012. Pitchers have generally raved about his defense and his leadership skills behind the dish. The only reason he’s near the bottom of this list is because he’ll miss the first 25 games with a suspension.
6. Matt Wieters (Orioles)
Wieters is a very good defensive catcher who seems to just be arriving at the offensive potential that most scouts saw in him. He’s been over 4.0 WAR in each of the last two seasons and will start his age 27 season in 2013. The power is finally showing up and with a little more in the average column, he could become one of the game’s best.
5. Salvador Perez (Royals)
Perez is extremely young and incredibly talented. He won’t be 23 until May and has already demonstrated superb defensive skills and a great swing in just parts of two seasons. He made the big leagues late in 2011 and tore up September. An injury kept him out for the first half of 2012, but he picked up right where he left off after the break and hit like crazy. The only hole in his game is his low walk rate, but he does pair it with a very low strikeout rate. If he can learn to walk, he’ll be at the top of this list in no time.
4. Miguel Montero (Diamondbacks)
Montero has quietly become one of the better catchers in the game over the last couple seasons. He’s a solid defender who hits for average and power and is improving his plate discipline. He reached base fourth most among catchers last year and while he’s probably at his ceiling, he looks capable of maintaining this level for a few more seasons.
3. Joe Mauer (Twins)
Mauer will turn 30 this season and is among the game’s best pure hitters. He’s probably never going to display the power he did in that 28 homerun season again, but his great batting average and on base percentage make him one of the best catchers there is. His defense is pretty average at this point, but the bat is very good. The key with Mauer is his health and ability to stay behind the plate, but this is a list for 2013, so I’ll still be on him over some of the younger guys.
2. Yadier Molina (Cardinals)
Molina nearly missed the top spot for 2013. His defense is elite, top notch stuff. Quantifying catcher defense is tricky, but by all measures he’s near the top and by most subjective measures he is the best. He’ll be 31 this year and has always had a good average and on base, but the power is new over the last year and a half. I’m not as confident in his power to remain as I need to be to put him at the very top of this list, but darn it, he’s very close.
1. Buster Posey (Giants)
Not much of a surprise here. The reigning NL MVP enters 2013 as the game’s best backstop. He plays a very good defense, even if he’s probably not in the same league as Molina and Hanigan. He’ll be 26 this year, which is about the time hitters tend to peak and he’s coming off one of the best offensive season in all of baseball. He hits for average and power and mixes it with plate discipline nicely. Posey is not only one of the game’s best catchers, he’s among the game’s best players period.
CHECK OUT THE MIDSEASON UPDATE HERE.
What does you list look like? Sound off in the comments section.
2012 Season in Review: Chicago White Sox
85-77, 2nd in the AL Central
In the first year of the post-Ozzie Guillen era, the White Sox were a surprise team. They played much better than expectation until September, at which point, they collapsed and handed the Tigers back the AL Central. I had the White Sox finishing last in my pre-season predictions, so while they fell apart at the end, they should feel good about 85 wins.
Alex Rios had a nice bounce back campaign (4.3 WAR) and AJ Pierzynski (3.4) had one of the best years of his career. Alejandro De Aza (2.7) and Paul Konerko (2.1) were the other position players to cross the 2.0 threshold.
The offense was too weak to take them into the postseason, but the pitching was another matter. The first two spots in the order, Sale (4.9) and Peavy (4.4) were excellent and Gavin Floyd (2.0) was good enough. Jose Quintana even posted a 1.9 WAR in 22 starts. The last spot was a bit of a mess, the rotation was pretty solid, especially for the division in which they played. The Sox pen was also pretty solid.
The Sox faded down the stretch because they played over their heads during the first few months. They were a very average team and ended up a little better than that in the standings.
The brightest spot for me had to be Phil Humber tossing a perfect game on April 21st (during my bachelor party!) despite having completed the travel from hot prospect to journey/swingman.
The Sox have done virtually nothing to improve the 2012 roster, but they have held it together. I think they know that they aren’t in a class with the Tigers and didn’t want to go for broke when it didn’t make sense to do so. I think they’ll be marginally worse in 2013, even though they totally should have gone for Josh Hamilton.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 83-79
2012 Season in Review: Kansas City Royals
72-90, 3rd in the AL Central
For the last several years the Royals farm system was much talked about as about ready to pay dividends and this year was no different in that people talked about it and it did not deliver. It was another tough year for the Royals.
Alex Gordon is on the cusp of becoming a star (5.9 WAR) and Mike Moustakas (3.5) and Billy Butler (3.2) were none too shabby. Salvador Perez (2.6 in 76 games) was excellent as well, while Alcides Escobar was quite useful (2.6) himself. Unfortunately, the offense stopped there. No one else cracked the 2.0 threshold and Eric Hosmer and Jeff Francoeur combined to post a -2.3 WAR. That was a minus sign. So while five everyday players were very good, two were very bad. Think about it this way, Hosmer and Frenchie combined to erase Escobar’s production.
That wasn’t nice of them.
Kidding aside, it wasn’t the offense that tanked the Royals. It was the pitching. Was it ever the pitching?
Their two best pitchers by WAR, Greg Holland (2.2) and Kevin Herrara (1.9), were both relievers. If you see that on a team’s leaderboard, they were a bad team. Case closed. Their four best starting pitchers combined for a WAR (6.1) lower than Justin Verlander’s. The pitching in Kansas City was a colossal mess.
So that might mean that improving their pitching staff would be a good idea for 2013, and it is. They, however, did it in a silly manner. They sign Guthrie to a 3 year deal who was worth 1.5 wins over 91 innings in 2012, so if you bank on him repeating that (which is not a good bet), he’s a solid addition. They traded for the terrible in 2012, but somewhat good before that Ervin Santana. They also made the big Wil Myers plus for Shields and Davis trade.
Don’t get me wrong, their pitching got better for 2013, but they did so at the cost of the future, and at the cost of not having Wil Myers to improve their offense by 3ish wins. Basically, the Royals pitching staff should add 5-7 wins in 2013, but their offense would have gotten at least 2-3 of those from simply having Myers instead of Francoeur.
They will be better in 2013, but not enough so that we should expect them to be true contenders. If you’re a Royals fan, enjoy yourself because baseball is wonderful, but don’t expect your team to be anything but average.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 76-86
Don Kelly and Athletes You Can Feel Good About
Don Kelly is coming back!
That was my reaction to the news today that the Tigers had signed Kelly to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training and a shot to make the club as the 25th man once again.
Let’s be clear upfront, I love Don Kelly. He became my favorite Tiger once the Tigers released Inge last year and I’m very excited about the prospect of him returning to the club. I’m not overly optimistic that it will happen, but I’m happy that he’ll get a shot at it.
You see, Don Kelly is everything that is great about baseball. That may seem odd to you considering that Kelly is a bench player and certainly won’t ever be anything more than that.
But what matters here is how much Kelly loves playing baseball and what a nice guy he is. I would never advocate for Kelly to start in centerfield and hit third for my team, but that’s okay, because only one guy can play centerfield and only one guy can hit third. You need 25 guys on a team, and Kelly fills a very valuable role. He plays every position, has a disciplined approach at the plate, and can get the occasional extra base hit.
He runs pretty well and can fill in as the emergency everything. I’ve personally seen him pitch and catch live and he’s the only active player to have played all nine positions in the majors. He’s played 8 of 9 for the Tigers plus a few games at short for the Pirates.
I love versatility. My favorite players are utility players. Maybe that makes me unusual, but I don’t particularly care. Don Kelly can play anywhere. He rides the bench with great enjoyment and is revered by everyone who knows him as, like, the nicest dude on the planet.
When he got sent down last year, the reporters were tearing up. He told them it wasn’t a funeral, and it wasn’t. He had a game winning sac fly in the ALDS and got to be the hero.
He’s the most polite athlete I’ve ever seen and his love for the game and his teammates is obvious. I love Don Kelly and I’m glad he’s getting another shot.
I’m fully aware that a list of the best 25 players in the Tigers organization probably doesn’t include Kelly, but he’s my favorite one to cheer for. The best 24 and Kelly might win one fewer game than the best 25, and I’m okay with that because sports are better when you can put your faith in someone who won’t let you down.
With all the cheating and lying and general unsavoriness going on with Bonds, Clemens, baseball writers, and Lance Armstrong, I’m more excited than ever to support players who are a little less talented if it means they are a lot better people. Don Kelly is one of those guys.
Don Kelly is easy to root for, so I’m hoping I get more chances to do so.
2012 Season in Review: Cleveland Indians
68-94, 4th in the AL Central
After a better than expected 2011, the Indians fell back to Earth and struggled to avoid the cellar of one of baseball’s worst divisions. They’re making improvements this winter, but they’re still struggling to forget the last year at Progressive Field.
The 2012 Indians features a really nice group of complimentary players on offense, but they had no one to compliment. The star power was missing. Carlos Santana (3.4 WAR), Jason Kipnis (3.1), Asdrubal Cabrera (2.9), Michael Brantley (2.7), and Shin Soo Choo (2.6) all had good seasons, but five solid players isn’t usually enough to make noise. No one else was worth even 1.0 WAR in 2012.
Justin Masterson (2.3) regressed in 2012, which wouldn’t be such a big deal if he wasn’t the Indians’ best pitcher. No one else hit 2.0 WAR. Only Zach McAllister and Vinnie Pestano even topped 1.0 WAR. The pitching was just bad.
But the club had made some moves this winter to change that. They added Nick Swisher on a 4/56 deal and traded the last year of Choo for Trevor Bauer plus others. They signed Brett Myers (who is a solid pitcher when he isn’t committing crimes) and Mark Reynolds to one year deals.
The Indians made good moves this winter, but they only added complimentary pieces. The team is still short on star power. I like what they can do in the back half of the lineup, but they just don’t have the firepower to match the Tigers in the top half. And they definitely don’t have the pitching.
It’s hard to imagine the Tribe contending in 2013 with the roster looking the way it does, but I do think they are one of those teams who are just good enough that if they have Baltimore style luck, they have a shot to at least make it interesting.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 72-90
New English D 