The Morning Edition (April 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clay Buchholz makes a run at his second no-hitter in a 5-0 win over the Rays
- The Braves complete a sweep of the Nats with a 9-0 win
- Halladay goes 8, gives up 1 run in a 2-1 win over the Marlins
- The Giants outslug the Cubs in 10, win 10-7
What I’m Watching Today:
- MLB celebrates Jackie Robinson day
- Rays and Sox play a morning game on Patriot’s Day in Boston (11a Eastern)
- Cliff Lee looks to stay sharp against the Reds (7p Eastern)
- The Padres and Dodgers meet just three days after Quentin injures Greinke, but Quentin will begin serving his suspension and won’t be in the lineup (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will stand out on a day meant to honor the great #42?
Roy Halladay pitched deep into the game in Miami yesterday, temporarily quieting the whispers, but it was against one of the worst teams in the league, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. After two rough starts to get the season going, Halladay was much closer to his old self and should get a chance to fully correct his recent woes. The other big story on Sunday was the Braves completing a 3 games sweep of division rival Washington, who most, including the author, believe to be the best team in the league. Certainly one series doesn’t change my opinion of the clubs, but the Braves have played very well out of the gate and are putting early distance between themselves and the Nats. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, but every game is going to count and I’d rather be ahead than behind after two weeks.
Ahead today is the Padres and Dodgers game that will feature neither of the principals from last Thursday’s melee, but it should feature some tempers. I doubt we’ll see any beanballs given the cost of escalating the conflict further, but I expect the Dodger faithful will have something to say to the Padres as they take the field. Vin Scully will be on the mic at 10pm, try not to miss it.
It’s too early to make meaningful statistical arguments about performance, but Justin Upton and Prince Fielder are leading the MVP races over the first two weeks. In 12 games, Upton has 7 HR, a .348/.415/.891 slash line, and a 242 wRC+, good for 1.1 WAR. Fielder only has 4 HR, but his .429/.527/.833 line and 250 wRC+ are no less impressive alongside his 1.0 WAR. Like I said, it’s too early for these numbers to be predictive of anything, but both players have sustained the performances long enough to consider them noteworthy and impressive in their own rights. Many players are having good fortnights, but these two are leading the way.
Pitchingwise, it’s a bit more difficult to separate the players, but Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, and Harvey would be the arms I’d point to as the early year standouts. It’s too early to make much of it, but they, among others, have been the most fun to watch in the early goings.
The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
- Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
- Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1
What I’m Watching Today:
- Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
- Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?
The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.
The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
- Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
- Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
- Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
- Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
- Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?
So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.
The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
- Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
- Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
- Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)
I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).
- 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
- 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
- March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP
That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.
So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
The Morning Edition (April 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Justin Upton’s 4-hit game powers the Braves past the Marlins
- Matt Harvey pitches brilliantly again while Halladay struggles as the Mets beat the Phillies 7-2
- Mitchell Boggs vomits up the game as the Reds rally for 9 runs in the 9th to top the Cards 13-4
- Clay Buchholz shines as the Red Sox beat the O’s on Opening Day in Boston
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jake Peavy and Gio Gonzalez hook up in D.C. (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee tries to get the Phillies rotation back on track against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- The ageless Andy Pettitte tries to quiet the Indians’ bats (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we watching the end of Roy Halladay?
Three things stood out on Monday in major league baseball. Let’s take them in turn. First, Mitchell Boggs gave up 6 earned runs to go with his four walks in 1/3 of an inning. This is particularly notable because he’s on my fantasy baseball team, so I can tell you that calculates out to a 162.00 ERA and 18.00 WHIP for the day. Good grief. Second, Matt Harvey is very good. The Phillies aren’t the best offense in baseball, but his 7IP, 3H, 1R, 2BB, 9K line is hard to ignore. For the season, he’s 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 1.14 FIP and a 12.21 K/9. Stats don’t mean much over two starts, but those are pretty snazzy. Matt Harvey is officially my non-Tiger man-crush of 2013. Third, Roy Halladay might be slipping away from us. Against the Mets on Monday he went 4IP, gave up 7 earned runs, walked 3, and struckout just 3 as well. His ERA on the season is 14.73. Again, you don’t want to make too much of the numbers, but Halladay, after a rough 2012 and rough spring, just doesn’t look like the pitcher we used to know. A one time surgeon of the strikezone, now looks as if he is using Apple Maps to find it. Just two years ago, at the start of 2011, I wouldn’t have batted an eye that Doc was the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he didn’t make my top 9 NL pitchers. I’m not sure he’s in the top 40 right now. He has to be hurt, right? It’s tough to watch.
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
The Morning Edition (April 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rays fall to the Orioles after Evan Longoria was called out in the middle of a rally for passing Ben Zobrist on the bases. Replay didn’t show conclusive evidence, but he appear to remain behind the runner
- Choo powers the Reds past the Angels as Chapman gets Pujols and Hamilton to the end the game with the tying run on second
- The Nats complete a three-game sweep of the Marlins to start the year
- Cliff Lee dominates the Braves in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Josh Hamilton returns to Arlington for the first time as an Angel (2p Eastern)
- Wade Davis makes his Royals debut against the Phillies (4p Eastern)
- The Cardinals visit San Francisco in an NLCS rematch (435p Eastern)
- Josh Johnson makes his first AL start at home against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore begins what I expect to be a great sophomore season against the Indians in St. Pete (7p Eastern)
- Zach Greinke wears the Dodger blue for the first time (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will early season bullpen blowups continue?
One of the things I was thinking about yesterday was a topic I’m sure we’ll be talking about for years. Harper or Trout? I’ve been on the Trout side of that debate for a while and I’m not ready to change my mind, but Bryce Harper just keeps doing things that make me like him. He’s fun to watch run the bases and he’s mashing early. Those two will be a lot of fun to watch this season. We’re just three or four games into the season, but it’s already been a fun year. Lots of games are going down to the wire and we’ve seen a lot of great starting pitching and late inning heroics. The Mets and Nats are leading the way on the hill and we’ll turn the league over and get another shot to see the aces again Saturday and Sunday.
New English D 