2013 Preseason Awards: National League Cy Young
Yesterday, we released The Nine Best NL Starters for 2013, so this will come as no surprise to those of you who did last night’s homework. Yet, for completeness sake, we’ll go through it for those of you who had that paper to finish for MLB Trade Rumors.
The NL has some great starters and a lot of top flight starters just missed the cut here. You can refer to the list linked above to see how I rank them, but my reasoning should be clear through my description below.
And the award will go to…
Stephen Strasburg (SP – Nationals)
There are two major concerns with picking Strasburg for NL Cy Young. First, would be the workload, which the Nationals claim will not be limited during this season. Second is his health. He’s now two years removed from Tommy John’s Surgery and showed no real ill effects last season. So, I’m banking on a full, healthy season from Strasburg.
Given that, he’s my Cy Young pick.
Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee are all fantastic pitchers who I expect to have very good seasons, but Strasburg, if performing at his best, is the class of the league.
In 45 career starts he has an 11.21 K/9 and 2.40 BB/9 in 251.1 innings to go with a 2.94 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 8.0 WAR. Of active starters with at least 250 innings, no one has a higher strikeout rate and less than 30 have a lower walk rate. No one has a lower FIP.
About that FIP, the next closest active starter with a FIP that low is Kershaw. Kershaw’s FIP is more than half a run higher.
We can often get caught up by small sample sizes and extrapolation where it isn’t appropriate, but everything about Strasburg points to this being real. Scouts rave about his stuff and he put up amazing numbers in college. The minor league numbers are consistent.
Stephen Strasburg, when he’s been on the field, has an incredible mix of high strikeouts and low walks. And he’s only 24, so there is a lot of reason to believe he’s going to get better before he gets worse. Roll that all together and I’m picking him to win the NL Cy Young.
I’m not worried about injuries for him, and if we assume every starter in the league performs to their ceiling, I’m taking Strasburg easily. No disrespect to Mr. Kershaw, but Strasburg will be king in 2013.
Disagree? Just watch the dude pitch.
The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013
As we do every week here at STT, we present lists of things ordered by the nines and on this Saturday, it’s a list of The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013.
On this list, you’ll find a couple of center fielders have gone missing as they no longer play the position. If you’re looking for Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, for example, try the left field list. Beyond that, I found this list to be a bit convoluted and had a difficult time doing the rankings. A lot of players are left off who could easily be in the 7-9 range and lots of players who are on the list could easily end up somewhere else on the board.
Apologies to: Justin Ruggiano, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury.
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
Jones hits for power and average and has decent speed, but his plate discipline is suspect. He’s also less than stellar on defense according to the metrics, but coaches seem to like him as they gave him a gold glove last year over the great Mike Trout. He’s a good player, but he’s not a complete player.
8. John Jay (Cardinals)
You could probably attack this choice more any other because Jay doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t have one eye popping skill. But Jay hits for average, runs the bases pretty well, and plays solid defense. It’s more of gut feeling here than anything, but I like Jay to break out this year. Entering his prime years on a great team, I’m buying.
7. B.J. Upton (Braves)
Upton will play between his brother and Jason Heyward on a good all-around team. He’s a solid defender who hits for power and runs well to mix with a good approach at the plate. He has a swing and miss problem and a lowish batting average, but he’s a good bet for 3 to 5 WAR.
6. Peter Bourjos (Angels)
The speedy, defensive star put up a 4.5 WAR season when he got a full season as a starter in 2011 and has two 2+WAR season in a backup role in 2010 and 2012. He doesn’t light up a lot of the traditional stats, but he plays amazing defense and runs as well as anyone. He’s worth the price of admission on defense alone and could easily be a top five centerfielder if he has a moderately good offensive year.
5. Denard Span (Nationals)
Span is a great defender who doesn’t strikeout much and gets on base better than average for a centerfielder and runs well. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be great at the top of the Nationals lineup and between Werth and Harper. With his concussion history hopefully behind him, he should be in for a big year.
4. Michael Bourn (Indians)
Bourn may be aging, but he’s coming off four very good seasons and is a top tier defensive player. He’s a top flight runner and gets on base well. Four years from now, the Indians might not want to pay him $12 million a season, but for 2013, he’s still one of the very best centerfielders money can buy.
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
Kemp’s 2011 season was one for the ages and his 2012 started off on the same pace but was cut down by injuries. That’s the only reason Kemp isn’t #1 on this list. I’m just not sure he’ll play a full season. His defense could use some work, but on offense, a healthy Kemp is as good as they come. If he was coming off a less serious set of injuries I would be more likely to brush them off, but I’m doubtful Kemp can play 150 games for a team with big expectations in 2013.
2. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
McCutchen is one of baseball’s best players. He mixes speed, power, and plate discipline and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012. He has four very good seasons under his belt and is only held back by averageish defense. There is some debate about his skills in center, but all in all there isn’t much bad to say about the Pirates’ star.
1. Austin Jackson (Tigers)
Now before I’m accused of bias in favor of my favorite team, go back and look at Jackson’s 2012 season. He was better than Bourn in every major category excepts steals and defense, but he also missed 25 games with an injury. He cut down on his strikeouts, walked more, and hit for more power. He’s a great defender and is a year younger than McCutchen. Despite missing time with an injury that has completely healed, Jackson was third in centerfield WAR among players who still play the position and less than 2 WAR behind McCutchen. I’m buying another step forward for Jackson in 2013 toward something like a 6-6.5 WAR player and modest regression by McCutchen. This isn’t to say Cutch is in decline, but rather that 2012 was simply his career year. It will be hard to reproduce that peak, so Jackson might catch him in 2013. This might be a bit bold, but I’ll stick to it. Jackson is my pick for the best centerfielder in baseball for 2013.
Sound off in the comments and online about the merits of this list. Should you want your money back because it was terrible, try to remember this site is free, unlike ESPN Insider, which charges you to read mostly terrible commentary.
2013 Season Preview: National League East
On Monday, STT previewed the NL West. Today, the Eastern division in the Senior Circuit is on tap.
Last season the Nationals surprised many (but not me, they were my pick to win the division) by accumulating the most wins in baseball, while the Braves made the fake playoffs and lost a coin flip game that featured garbage being thrown on the field. The Phillies disappointed and the Mets made a pretty good first half run. The Marlins stumbled and then blew up their franchise in a way only the Marlins could.
The Nationals and Braves both had big offseasons while the Phillies did weird stuff like signing Delmon Young to play defense. The Mets dealt Dickey for a good haul and extended David Wright. The Marlins traded everyone who isn’t Giancarlo Stanton, and he’ll be gone inside twelve months two I’m sure.
Here’s how the 2013 NL East looks according to STT. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L prediction, 2013 Preseason MLB Power Ranking]
5. Miami Marlins (63-99, 29)
I’ve made no secret of my disgust with the Marlins fire sale over the last several months and won’t rehash it at length here. They have but one player on their entire projected opening day roster that is a lock to have a 2 WAR or better season if healthy. Only Giancarlo Stanton is anything more than a bench type player going into 2013. They will no doubt have some surprises and I’m excited to see former Tigers Jacob Turner and Rob Brantly get a shot at the big leagues, but this team is so devoid of talent it borders on the criminal.
4. New York Mets (78-84, 18)
I’m actually kind of bullish on the Mets. I think their rotation of Santana, Niese, Harvey, Gee, and eventually Wheeler could be very good and they’ve made some good bullpen signings. David Wright is a centerpiece and they have some good supporting pieces in guys like Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy. The Mets need an outfield. I think they’re one great player and one pretty good player away from being a legitimate contender and maybe only one good player away from making noise. Even if they don’t make a playoff run, I’m excited to watch the Mets rotation in 2013.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (84-78, 13)
The Phillies rotation is too amazing at the top for them to be any lower on this list even if the rest of the team is questionable. Up the middle, the Phillies can play with anyone with the likes of Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ben Revere to match Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. The problem is that the corners are potential black holes of terrible. Michael and Delmon Young are written in as starters for 2013 and they were literally among the five worst starters in baseball last season costing their teams more than two wins combined. Ryan Howard has been a bit of problem at first given his lack of four tools. Each of these players could have bounce back years, but I’m not betting on it. The pitching and the middle will hold the Phillies up, but they won’t make it to the top.
2. Atlanta Braves (90-72, 4)
The Braves added Uptons for 2013 but lost Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, which makes me think they’ll be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. Which was good. The Braves have a great outfield and infielders who have the potential to really contribute. Their starters are solid and their bullpen is second to none. The Braves are a well-balanced club with no glaring holes. Other than Dan Uggla’s defense.
1. Washington Nationals (95-67, 1)
I’ve also made no secret of my belief in the Nationals on these pages and this is merely a formality. They were baseball’s best team last season and got better by any definition. Even if you expect regression by some, you should probably anticipate improvement by others. Their pitching staff is only challenged by the Tigers and Rays for the best in baseball and the Nats have a good bullpen and well-rounded offense. It’s hard to imagine a scenario without disproportionate injuries that doesn’t have the Nationals among the best teams in baseball for 2013.
NL East Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
NL East MVP: Jason Heyward
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Justin Upton
Division Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Chase Utley stays healthy and has a big year.
Boldest of the Bold: Freddie Freeman will make the All-Star team.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 10-1
Over the last two days, SABR Toothed Tigers has released our 2013 MLB Preseason Power Rankings 30-21 and 20-11. Today, we complete the series and take you all the way through number one.
Remember, this list is designed to represent the expected performance of each team in 2013, but not necessarily the win totals of each team. For example, I project the Red Sox to be a better team than the Pirates but I expect the Pirates to win more games as a function of their league, division, and better relationship with an almighty deity than the team from Boston. Check back tomorrow for my Preseason Standings Prediction.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are a very deep team with talent at about every position. The middle infield is a bit iffy going forward but those are two of the less important offensive positions and the rest of their lineup more than makes up for it. The rotation is a good mix of veterans and talented youngsters and the bullpen has a lot of exciting pieces. Nothing about the Cardinals makes me say “wow!” but everything about them makes me think they’re a very good team. I also can’t ignore the incredible comebacks/magic/voodoo/etc of the last two seasons. It’s usually not right to expect weird things to keep happening like that, but I’m not really looking to tempt fate.
9. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are an interesting team because I can talk myself into a lot of different places on this list for them. Probably more so than any other team expect the Dodgers. They added Josh Hamilton, but lost Torii Hunter who was worth more than Hamilton in 2012. They’ll have an everyday role for Peter Bourjos who is among the very best defensive players walking the Earth and Albert Pujols likely won’t struggle as much as he did last April in any month of 2013. In just looking at the offense and defense, I would imagine the Angels should be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. But the pitching looks a lot worse. Jered Weaver should be the same as always and CJ Wilson likely won’t improve upon his 2012 numbers because he simply isn’t that good. After them, instead of Greinke or Haren, you have Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, and stuff. This rotation is pretty good if you want to win 80 games, but I think it’s awful if you want to win 95 like the Angels do. This team has the best player in the league (Trout), the best player of his era (Pujols), and a player with an impossibly high ceiling (Hamilton), but I just can’t bring myself to bet any higher on them with such a suspect pitching staff.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays did excellent work this offseason adding Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, RA Dickey, and others. They are a much better team than they were in 2012 and could also get a full season from Jose Bautista. Even with expected regression from Edwin Encarnacion, this should be a team that scores runs and pitches well. I think they’ll be right in the thick of the AL East race and should also contend for a wild card. My reservations about placing them higher deal with a lot of injury question marks. Bautista is recovering from a wrist injury and hand and wrist injuries tend to have a negative effect on power. I’m not saying he’ll have a down season, but I think it’s more likely than it was before he got hurt. Additionally, while I think Josh Johnson is fantastic, he is also very fragile. Who knows what Melky Cabrera can do without the help of PEDs? Brandon Morrow missed significant time last season. Something was obviously wrong with Ricky Romero, right? So while on paper this is a talented team with a great chance at October baseball, there are concerns large enough to keep them at number eight.
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants return an excellent pitching staff and good defensive club. A full season of Scutaro and Pence should be a marginal improvement, but losing the great “wind-aided” performance of Melky Cabrera will hurt with no clear replacement lined up. If Pablo Sandoval is healthy and Brandon Belt is allowed to do his thing without interference from a silly manager, this team should be on par with last year’s division winning club. It’s a good bullpen and the park tends to work in favor of the team’s design, so I’m willing to bet the Buster Posey led Giants are making another deep run into the postseason.
6. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds should have no trouble winning the NL Central if they are able to remain as healthy as their counterparts. They have the amazing Joey Votto at first and an average to above average player pretty much everywhere. They rotation remained perfectly intact last year and Aroldis Chapman is coming to help them out even more in 2013. With the addition of Choo, the maturing of Cozart and Fraizer, and the continued success of Bruce and Phillips, I can’t really see a glaring whole other than defense in centerfield. This is an all-around good club.
5. Texas Rangers
A lot of people are down on the 2013 Rangers because they didn’t sign or trade for any of their big offseason targets, but I think that means they’re very underrated. If we look at the 2012 Rangers as a pretty true 93 win club who had a bad week at the end, when we compare them to the 2013 version, they hold up great. The pitching should be essentially the same with perhaps a better performance by the adapting Darvish. On offense, they dropped Michael Young’s negative WAR at DH for Lance Berkman and will return everyone else except Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt can easily combine with Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin to approximate the ~4WAR season of Josh Hamilton and AJ Pierzynski steps in to replace Napoli who had a down year on a team that won 93 games. While it can be said that the Rangers missed out on getting a lot better, they also failed to really get worse. This is the overlooked team of the year if you’re into making those types of wagers.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves added a lot this offseason (see: Uptons, all) but they also lost a good amount in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. I like Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman to breakout in compliment with Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The starting pitching is deep and the bullpen is second to none. The Braves aren’t the most exciting team in the league to me, but I think they have the highest floor. It’s hard for me to imagine them having much worse than an upper 80s win season.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
I’m higher on the Rays than most because I’ve seen them over-perform too many times not to believe. Their starting pitching is in the top five and their bullpen always works. They’ve added Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar on offense and are hoping for a full season of Evan Longoria to go with the soon to be called up Wil Myers. Top to bottom, the Rays are probably in the 6-10 range as far as talent goes, but they are so well run from top to bottom, that they will get more out of that talent than the other teams on this list.
2. Detroit Tigers
The 2012 Tigers underperformed and won 88 games. In 2013, they will add Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter and a full season of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They lost nothing of substance from the roster should get at least modest bounce back seasons from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. That is all by way of saying, it’s hard to see how they aren’t one of the surest bets in the league for 2013. 90 wins should be safe and 95-100 is a real possibility given the level of competition they face. They own baseball’s best rotation 1-5 and their only weaknesses are infield defense questions and bullpen uncertainty. And almost everyone has bullpen uncertainty so I can’t really hold that against them. Looking at the Tigers on paper, it’s hard to see how the defending AL champs won’t get a shot to play in October once more.
1. Washington Nationals
The Nationals earn this spot through logic similar to that which put the Tigers at number two. They added Denard Span, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Haren and lost only Edwin Jackson. With an unlimited Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper, there isn’t an argument to be made that the Nats got worse for 2013. Granted, any team can collapse and underperform, but there is no reason to think the Nationals are any more likely to do so than any other team on this list. If the Nationals stay as healthy as their competitors in 2013, they should once again be baseball’s best team.
Tell us what you thought of the 2013 Preseason Power Rankings series in the comments, on Twitter, on Facebook, or via the United States Postal Service. Check back tomorrow for STT’s projected standings.
Thinking About the Strasburg Shutdown
One of the biggest stories in baseball this season was the Nationals shutting down Stephen Strasburg. I liked it. Lots of people didn’t.
The argument against the shutdown was that they had a shot at a title and he would help them get there. We also don’t know enough about Tommy John recovery to know if he needed to be shut down.
But I think they had to do it. He wasn’t just a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery, he had never thrown more than about 120 innings in a season before. How would his arm respond to a bigger workload after the surgery?
They didn’t need him to make the playoffs. That much is clear. Could he have made a difference in the playoffs? Sure, but he also could have pitched terribly, we’re just guessing. Gonzalez was lights out in the regular season and laid an egg in the NLDS.
I’m a big believer in building innings slowly. He already threw 40 more innings than he had ever thrown. I would be weary of going much higher than he did if he hadn’t had surgery, but the surgery sealed it for me. Strasburg is the future of that team, you can’t risk a second surgery because second Tommy John’s lead to careers in the bullpen.
We don’t know a lot about what causes injuries to pitchers, but what we do know is that pitching tired is a factor. Strasburg had never thrown this many innings and had missed an entire season. This sounds like a recipe for fatigue. He would tell you he isn’t tired because he wants to be a team guy, but I would wager he was tired.
It’s one thing to wear him out and make him tired going into next season, but it’s another to risk another injury. If he was my investment, I would shut him down. They had a good team and made it to the playoffs anyway. I would bet they’ll be back.
He’ll have something to say about that.
2012 Season in Review: National League East
It was a big season for the NL East. The Marlins spent big. The Mets had R.A. Dickey. The Phillies underperformed. The Braves bounced back. The Nationals rose to the occasion.
I predicted the big year from the Nats and the poor showing by the Marlins. I thought too highly of the Phillies and sold the Braves a little short. For a breakdown of how I viewed each team’s 2012, I wrote full pieces on each club.
Here’s how 2012 shook out:
And here are the playoff odds across time:
This is how I see the division next season:
And a final look at my 2012 grades:
The National League East was one of the better divisions in baseball in 2012 and there’s a lot of talent for next season. I like the Nationals to repeat in 2013, but there are a lot of interesting teams…except the Marlins. They will be terrible.
NL East Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
NL East MVP: David Wright
Nationals Add Haren, Improve on Team that Won Many Games
Updated 5:20pm: Great move for the Nationals who now have Haren behind Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Gonzalez. That’s a pretty good rotation and they were top five last year with Edwin Jackson instead of Haren. All one year deals are good risks and even if Haren’s medicals are in question, this deal should pay off.
1:48pm:The Nationals have signed Dan Haren to a 1 year, $13 million deal pending a physical. More to come.
Lots of Baseball Happens: Signings, Extensions, and Trades
In the most cliché move yet this offseason, the hot stove is heating up as baseball’s GMs decided to start making moves in the week before the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Because my day job doesn’t allow me to spend the 12 hours a day I would like to writing about baseball, I’m going to have to get you caught up at lightning speed.
Here are the big moves from this week and my brief take on each:
Angels sign RP Ryan Madson, 1 year, $6 million plus incentives
Excellent move by the Angels who followed up by dumping Jordon Walden on the Braves for Tommy Hanson. Madson was a solid reliever for the Phillies for several years before signing a 1 year deal with the Reds last season. He got injured before the season and never threw a pitch, so it’s hard to judge exactly how healthy he may be. The Angels took that risk and added Madson to their bullpen on a one year deal during and offseason that has seen two meh relievers (League and Broxton) get three year contracts. Grade: A
Braves sign OF BJ Upton , 5 years, $75 million
The Braves needed to resign or replace Michael Bourn and this will do the trick. I have my doubts about Upton going forward and think he’s a guy who peaked early and will never live up to his skills. That said, he’s been a useful big leaguer with flashes of star power in the past and the Braves are only signing him through his age 32 season. I don’t love this deal, but it’s not a huge risk given how big contracts are getting. I think Upton has a couple more $15 million seasons in him, I’m just not sure how many and when they’ll come. I’m glad my team isn’t taking this risk, but I’m guessing the Braves won’t regret this and if they do, it won’t be a huge regret. Grade: B-
Nationals acquire Denard Span from the Twins for P Alex Meyer
The Tigers fan in me is thrilled Span is leaving the AL Central. The analyst in me thinks the Nationals made a shrewd move here. A cost controlled Span for three more seasons will do wonders between Harper and Werth and can provide a nice boost at the top of the order in a much cheaper way than the free agent options. Meyer is an interesting prospect, but most of the people I’ve talked to or read seem to think he’s a risky-high upside type. Span fills a hole in the Nats outfield and they traded from pitching depth, and they have a lot of that. The Twins have Ben Revere to fill the Span void and they do need a lot of pitching. I like this deal for them except that I think they probably could have gotten more in a deal for Span. Grade (Nats): A, Grade (Twins): C+
Pirates sign Russell Martin, 2 years, $17 million
The Pirates got something they needed. Offense. Martin hits for power and walks at a decent rate while provide some value on defense through solid pitching framing and debatable throwing skills. He’s a good fit for the Pirates and it’s hard to call $8.5 million for a free agent who can easily get to 2.0 WAR an overpay. Can’t complain if I’m a Bucs fan, but I really just want to point out that the Pirates outbid the Yankees for a player. The Pirates…outbid…the Yankees. With money. Grade: B
Mets extend David Wright, 7 years, $122 million
This extension starts after 2013 and carries Wright into his age 37 season. I was preparing a “What Should the Mets Pay Wright” piece when the news broke of this extension and I have to say, the Mets are getting a really solid yearly price for the cost of guaranteeing a lot of years. This is similar to the Longoria deal in a lot of ways except Longoria signed his four years ahead of free agency and Wright signed his one year ahead. Wright proved, through signing this deal, that he is committed to winning in New York and he’ll likely be a Met for life. Assuming he stays healthy, it’s hard for me to see a way in which this deal becomes a mess. It might not payoff, but it should mostly pay off. Grade: B+
The Winter Meetings are coming next week and a lot more action should be coming. Check back with STT for complete coverage.
122 days until Opening Day.
New English D 