The Morning Edition (June 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix out duels Phelps, but the Yanks score on the M’s pen to win 2-1
- Puig has 3 hits, but the Braves pound the Dodgers 8-1
- EJax is strong as the Cubs beat the Bucs
- Lohse goes 8 strong as the Brewers beat the Phils
- The O’s gets 6 HR to outslug the Rays
- Zimmermann goes 7 as the Nats blank the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Silent ace Alex Cobb faces the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw goes against the Dbacks (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma gets the Astros at Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How’s everyone enjoying Yasiel Puig?
I haven’t written much about Puig because he’s been playing on the coast and I usually write this post before games end out west. So far, he’s hitting .464/.483/.964, good for 307 wRC+. That’s pretty good by any measure, even if it is just 29 PA. Puig certainly won’t hit like this for the whole season, but he’s impressing early and fans are loving him. It’s almost as if the Dodgers shouldn’t have traded for Crawford and/or extended Andre Ethier into their declines. It will be interesting to see what they do once everyone gets healthy, but such a scenario doesn’t look good for Ethier who has been worth 0.1 WAR in 228 PA. For perspective, that’s less than Zach Greinke has in 16 PA. Zach Greinke, the pitcher.
The Morning Edition (June 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marlins win a 20 inning marathon against the Mets
- Darvish and Buehrle both go 7, but it takes 18 for the Jays to beat the Rangers
- Danks goes 8 as the Sox win with 3 in the 8th over the A’s
- Pettitte wins #250 against the Mariners
- Gausman gets shelled, again
- Twins beat the Nats in 11
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Twins (1p Eastern)
- Moore tries to shake off his last outing against the O’s (130p Eastern)
- The still underappreciated Felix Hernandez gets the Yankees (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So the Marlins and Mets, eh?
Let’s review. The Mets and Marlins were tied 1-1 after 9 innings of baseball. At this point, Harvey and Fernandez had both been strong and the bullpens had combined for 5 scoreless innings. There were still 11 innings left. In the innings that followed two pitchers would each throw more than both team’s starters! Slowey went 7 in relief, allowing 8 hits, 0 BB, and 8 K. Marcum went 8, allowing 5 hits and a run with 0 BB and 8 K. That’s right, the Mets walked 2 batters in 20 innings and lost. Only twice in MLB history has a team lost a game in which they walked 2 or fewer hitters in 18 or more innings. Perhaps even more remarkable, this was the 2nd 15+ inning game between the clubs this year starter by Fernandez and Harvey.
The Morning Edition (June 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tropical Storm Andrea washes out 3 games and soaks the offices of New English D with 5 inches of rain
- Wainwright cruises as the Cards thump the Reds
- Jennings’ 2 run HR lifts the Rays over the O’s
- Liriano walks 5, but goes 7 to beat the Cubs 2-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish goes north to play the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Harvey (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz goes against the Angels (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who is this week’s surprising leaderboard climber?
That would be Michael Cuddyer. All of a sudden, he’s 6th in MLB in wRC+ with 161, trailing just Davis, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Goldschmidt, and CarGo. Take your time, read that list. What do you see? Three Colorado Rockies. They have 3 of the top 6 hitters in baseball and 4 of the top 28 (Fowler), but then everyone else is below MLB average and they’re 10th overall with 101 wRC+ as a club. I had them as one of the worst teams in baseball coming in to the season, but their pitching is performing better than I expected, but the key is the health of their big hitters. They don’t have the depth to fill in, but Tulo and CarGo are as good as almost any pair in the game when they are healthy.
How Was The Game? (June 2, 2013)
Another good outing for Porcello, but the bats let him down.
Orioles 4, Tigers 2
The Tigers entered today’s rubber match trying to win the series from the Orioles despite losing a game they absolutely should have won on Friday night. Rick Porcello (2-3, 57 IP, 5.21 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 0.8 WAR) did his part with 6+ innings strong innings in which he allowed 3 runs (all in the 7th inning) and struck out 7 while walking 1. Porcello dominated the Orioles for 6 innings and gave up a homer and a couple quick hits to start the 7th before he was pulled, but the whole of his performance was very strong against one of the league’s better offenses. His progression into a very good major league starter continued as he used all his pitchers effectively and made these graphs look even better after this start:
Coke allowed two inherited runners to score in the inning, but holding the Orioles to 4 runs should usually be enough (Downs allowed a run in the 8th). It wasn’t however on this day. Fielder hit a solo homer in the 4th and the Tigers were on pace for a big inning in the 7th before it fell apart. With two on, a run in, and no out, Leyland called for a bunt with Avila at the plate and Martinez as the lead runner. Needless to say, it went poorly and the Tigers ended up with a runner on second and two outs and would end the inning without scoring again. They were up against top prospect Kevin Gausman, who was relatively strong, but they needed to provide more than 2 runs for Porcello. The Tigers end the weekend 1-2 in Baltimore despite the fact that they should have won all three games. They’ll take Monday off and will get back at it Tuesday against the Rays behind Anibal Sanchez (5-5, 71 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.87 FIP, 3.0 WAR).
The Moment: Hunter makes a leaping catch to rob Hardy in the 2nd.
How Was The Game? (June 1, 2013)
A nice correction.
Tigers 10, Orioles 3
After last night’s Valverde meltdown and the offensive struggles of the last few games, Saturday adjusted the averages back to normal as the Tigers crushed the Orioles and finally won their 30th game after five tries. Justin Verlander (6/7-4, 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.5 WAR) was solid, even if he was unimpressive, over 7 innings, allowing 3 runs while striking out 5 and walking 1. But the story of the day, no doubt, was the Tigers massive 8 run 4th inning. It started with a Martinez homerun. Then a Peralta homer. Then Avila joined the party with a bomb of his own. It was at this point that Hammel put one in Tuiasosopo’s ear and was ejected from the game to the disappointment of Tigers hitters, who didn’t mind his replacement. Garcia singled. Infante doubled. Dirks walked. And then Miguel Cabrera walked to the plate and whacked a 3-2 pitch into the left field seats to complete the rally. Fielder would add a solo shot later, but it was over when Cabrera fired off the grand slam. The Tigers are now 30-24 on the year and will look to take the series Sunday behind Rick Porcello (2-2, 51 IP, 5.29 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 0.7 WAR) who will look to build on his fantastic outing last time out and continue his breakout season.
The Moment: The Tigers deliver four HR in the 4th.
The Morning Edition (June 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland and the Rangers pile on the Royals
- Strasburg leaves with an oblique injury, but the Nats manage to win 3-2
- Jacob Turner goes 7 strong to beat the Mets
- Another rough outing for Hamels as the Phils fall to the Crew
- Cueto throws 8 scoreless to beat the Bucs
- Sabathia gets 10 K to beat the Sox
- Another good start by Garza beats the Dbacks
- Bartolo Colon CGSO
- Rays and Indians start late in Cleveland
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Miller try again in St. Louis (1p Eastern)
- Greinke travels to Coors 4p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Wainwright in game two (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Chris Davis, are you buying or selling?
I’ve remained cautiously skeptical of the Davis breakout, as one should. Entering 2013, he was a career .258/.310/.466 hitter, which is perfectly league average 100 wRC+. Career 6.5 BB%, 31.0 K%. Barely above replacement level. This year, he’s .356/.442/.749, good for 209 wRC+. Everyone wants to believe, but I can’t. He’s never done anything like this and I just don’t think he’s changed his approach enough to sustain star level performance. The power is real, but I don’t buy the average and walk rate. I don’t usually like to be the negative guy, but here we are. Valverde nights will do that to you.
How Was The Game? (May 31, 2013)
A return to hitting, and a return to the other thing…
Orioles 7, Tigers 5
After struggling to score over the previous three games, they Tigers returned to form against the Orioles on Friday and matched it with another good start from Max Scherzer (7-0, 76.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.7 WAR). Scherzer gave the Tigers 7 strong innings of 3 run baseball featuring 2 walks and 10 strikeouts, while retiring the final 16 he faced. It wasn’t quite as dominant as his previous two outings, but it was certainly very good and it was against a very strong offense. The Tigers offense came from Cabrera and Garcia HRs and Garcia and Martinez RBI hits and the Tigers almost got their 30th win, if not for the horrendous pitching of Jose Valverde. He entered the game in the 9th up 2 runs and allowed a homerun, a single, a single, a popup, a popup, and then a 3 run HR complete his meltdown. They’ll look to get back on track Saturday afternoon behind HR Derby hopeful, Justin Verlander (6-4, 66 IP, 3.68 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 2.5 WAR), who thankfully, will likely stick to pitching.
The Moment: Cabrera starts the game off right with a 2 run HR.
The Morning Edition (May 31, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Freddy Garcia dominates the Nats
- Dillon Gee’s 12 K lead the Mets to a four game sweep of the Yankees
- Kazmir goes 7 strong behind a 7 run inning to beat the Reds
- Felix dominates the Padres as Ryan, Chavez, Franklin, and Morales all homer
- Travis Wood hits a grand slam and gets the win over the White Sox
- Wacha goes 7, gives up 2 hits in his MLB debut and gets a ND
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and CC faces off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Kluber go head to head in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner makes his 2013 debut (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Cain and Miller in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw at Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are the Cardinals wizards?
Yesterday, I wrote about teams who do a good job scoring from 2B on a single and today I’m going to look at a nearly opposite concept. Which teams make the most outs on the bases? Specifically, which teams make the most outs at 3B and home on the bases? I isolate those two categories because I think it makes for a good third base coach ranking. Third base coaches signal if a runner should advance to third or home on a play, but runners usually make the choice about second. So here, without much more ado, are the teams that have made the most outs on the bases at 3B and home entering Thursday (listed by raw number, but also shown with percentage of their total outs on the bases):
I haven’t spent enough time with these numbers to really know if it reflects the quality of the team’s third base coach, but I suspect it does. The coach can’t make his runners faster, but he can know which players are capable of taking the extra base and only telling them to advance. They don’t always listen, but a good third base coach should be able to make them. Seattle makes the highest percentage of their baserunning outs at 3B and home, so their coach could probably do more to help. Ideally, you would want to have all zeroes on this board, but the columns showing 3B and home are categories in which the coach plays a role and should therefore be judged. I’ll be thinking about this more and working on a way to further isolate this going forward. If you have suggestions, let me know.
The Morning Edition (May 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Baltimore’s 6 run 7th tops Zimmerman’s 3 HR night
- The Mets beat the Yanks with 5 in the first, but Nova delivers an immaculate inning
- Navarro homers 3 times as the Cubs beat the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix goes at Petco (330p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Michael Wacha makes his MLB debut for the Cards
The Big Question:
- Has the Cardinals draft team been tested for PEDs?
I spend some time checking into various baserunning numbers and threw several tweets out regarding those numbers (you can read them if you look to the right of this page) and I made this handy graph comparing how often a team scores from second base on a single:
You can see 60% is about average and the Mets lead the way with 79%, but look at those Astros. My, my those Astros. 39%.
The Morning Edition (May 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey and Kuroda deliver a classic duel in NY
- Lee dominates the Red Sox, wins 3-1
- Rays walk off against the Marlins
- McCann homers in the 10th to lift the Braves over the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Orioles in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to stay hot against the Rangers (8p Eastern)
- Weaver returns to action against the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you like some of these home and home series in MLB?
Cliff Lee in 2013: 7.03 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9, 39.1 GB% 2.34 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 2.0 WAR
Rick Porcello in 2013: 7.06 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 55.7 GB%, 5.29 ERA, 3.93 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
Once their HR/FB rates normalize (5.5% to 19.4%), they’re basically the same pitcher with Porcello getting the ball on the ground more often. I’m not saying Porcello is going to be Cliff Lee, but so far, it’s not such a crazy thought. (Innings aside)
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