The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
The Morning Edition (May 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Trout hits for the cycle
- Leake strong as the Reds beat the Mets 4-0
- McClouth walks off against the Yanks
- Garza sharp in his season debut, but Snider slams the Cubs pen to give the Bucs the W
- Greinke gets roughed up over 4 innings in Milwaukee
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey versus Latos at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Gio and Bumgarner throw from the left side in SF (330p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is a 4th AL 3B trying to get involved in this race?
Last week I talked about how Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Manny Machado led the AL in WAR, but a new AL 3B has moved into the #4 spot: Josh Donaldson. As I write this, he’s hitting .315/.391/.530 with a 152 wRC+ an 2.1 WAR, which is 9th in MLB. He’s flashed solid potential before, but nothing quite like this. In 300+ previous big league at bats he was a below average walker and above average strikeout guy who didn’t hit for average of power. In the minors he had some reasonable success, but it wasn’t anything spectacular. Now in 2013, he’s crushing. His BABIP (.353) is elevated, but he’s shown a higher BABIP in various minor league stints so it’s not like it is guaranteed to regress dramatically. I left him out of my top 9 3B to start the year and I think I’m sticking with that, but for now, the best 3 players in the AL play 3B and one of them is Josh Donaldson.
The Morning Edition (May 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners blow two saves and the Indians only blow one in a wild one in Cleveland
- Dickey beats Odorizzi north of the border
- Hamels Ks 10 and walks none in a losing effort
- The White Sox get to Lester in Chicago
- Kershaw goes the distance, allows just one run against the Brewers
- Corbin dazzles at Coors with a CG, 10 Ks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza makes his season debut against the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb goes for the Rays in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Darvish welcomes the A’s to Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Wainwright comes to Petco (10p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Cain face off at the bay (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- When do we start to notice Partick Corbin?
As I write this, Patrick Corbin is plowing through the 7th inning in Colorado and hasn’t allowed a run and has surrendered just a single hit (He finished with a CG, 3 H, 1 R, 10 K line). Entering the night, he was 6-0, 53.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR and those numbers are going to get better. Granted, this level isn’t sustainable, but he’s pretty good and is throwing a gem in one of the hardest places to pitch. Also, Clayton Kershaw, just stop it. Another CG tonight.
How Was The Game? (May 19, 2013)
Um…ridiculous?
Rangers 11, Tigers 8
Entering the bottom of the 5th inning, the Tigers lead the Rangers 4-1 behind two Miguel Cabrera (.387/.457/.659, 1998 wRC+, 2.8 WAR) homeruns and solid pitching from Doug Fister (5-2, 54.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 1.7 WAR). Then things just went indiscriminately crazy. I mean it. The Rangers got 4. The Tigers got 3. The Rangers got 4. That was three consecutive half innings. It was 9-7 at that point. Then 11-7, then 11-8 on Cabrera’s third homer. I don’t think it’s necessary to rehash exactly how it happened at each interval other than to say that the offense did its job, but the pitching and defense struggled in different ways at different times. I’m really not even sure if the Tigers were giving the game away or the Rangers were trying to give the game away. There were many runs and Miguel Cabrera did something that has happened just a couple times in history. He hit 3 HR in a game and lost…for a second time. The Tigers drop to 23-19 after dropping 3 of 4 from Texas this weekend after Verlander, Sanchez, and Fister all struggled. The Rangers are a good team and you’d be plenty happy with a split on the road and that just escaped their grasp. The Tigers will get Monday off to reset the bullpen and will turn to Max Scherzer (5-0, 54.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.9 WAR) to get the team on track Tuesday in Cleveland.
The Moment: Cabrera homers…three times.
How Was The Game? (May 17, 2013)
The pitchers’ duel we didn’t get yesterday.
Tigers 2, Rangers 1
The duel we were promised on Thursday came on Friday with Nick Tepesch and Rick Porcello (2-2, 38 IP, 5.92 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 0.3 WAR) fronting the effort. Porcello only went 5.2 innings but he allowed just one run on a solo homerun and struck out 6 Rangers, who happened to be the team with the lowest K% in MLB entering the day. The offense came primarily from Cabrera (185 wRC+, T-1st in MLB), who had 3 hits and a walk as he scored one of the Tigers’ runs and drove in the other. Both bullpens held serve and the Tigers won their 23rd game in 40 tries, which put them on pace for about 93 as we arrive at the Sparky Anderson threshold. Through 40 games, the Tigers look to be one of the best teams in baseball featuring the top pitching staff and a top five offense. They will look to win their 24th game tomorrow behind Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 52.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.45 FIP, 2.6 WAR) who will look to guarantee the Tigers leave Arlington with no worse than a split.
The Moment: Tom Brookens sends Dirks home in the 3rd despite a very low chance of success – and having a Lamont moment.
The Morning Edition (May 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman blows Latos’ gem, but the offense bails him out
- Middlebrooks knocks in 3 in the 9th to beat Rodney and the Rays
- The Mets get 4 runs on Wainwright and Niese pitches them to victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Cingrani and Lee hook up in Philly (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz takes on the Twins (8p Eastern)
- Bumgarner takes on Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you guys see Kinsler last night?
It’s happening again. Mike Trout has climbed to 3rd in MLB in Wins Above Replacement (as I write this at 11p 5/16). Some attention was called to his slow start, but here he is on May 16 hitting .291/.365/.545 good for 148 wRC+ and 2.3 WAR. For what it’s worth, in May, he’s hitting .358/.426/.792. I’m feeling better about MVP pick – except for the fact that he’s on a terrible team, so no one will vote for him. And in case it comes up later, he’s .333/.380/.619 with runners in scoring position, not that I’m big on that stat but some people are.
How Was The Game? (May 16, 2013)
A wacky disaster.
Rangers 10, Tigers 4
When you see Verlander and Darvish in the program, you expect a level of pitching that you did not receive on this night. Darvish struggled early, allowing 4 runs in 8 innings including a homerun to Don Kelly, but the story was Justin Verlander’s (4-4, 54 IP, 3.17 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.9 WAR) meltdown in the 3rd inning. He walked in two, allowed two to score on a double, and surrender a 3 run homer and was pulled after 2.2 innings and just 70 pitches. You don’t often see Verlander get taken out for being ineffective, but it happened today. His velocity was there in spades, but his command was lacking like it was against the Indians and there will be a lot of whispers about something being wrong with Verlander. It’s likely a mini-funk and a reminder of how spoiled we are to rely on him start after start. He’ll try to wash this one out of his mind and get back on track for his next outing. The game also featured Ian Kinsler giving new meaning to “head first slide” and Lance Berkman striking out on a pitch that hit the backstop on the fly. The Tigers will try to do the same and will be back at it tomorrow with Rick Porcello (1-2, 32.1 IP, 6.68 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 0.3 WAR) on the hill coming off three solid outings.
The Moment: The Rangers chase Verlander after just eight outs and as many runs.
The Morning Edition (May 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Choo gets 4 hits, 2 homers as the Reds beat the Fish
- Mariners crush the Yanks, Alberto Gonzalez pitches, Vernon Wells plays 2B
- Price leaves with an injury as Lester and the Sox roll over the Rays
- Greinke returns to the mound against the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright welcomes the Mets to St. Louis (130p Eastern)
- Cobb tries to last longer, but strikeout just as many against the Sox (7p Eastern)
- Verlander and Darvish (8p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- With the injury to Price, will my prediction that Moore will out-pitch him come true?
The Rays are being the Rays. After a rough start they are back in the thick of the division race and they are doing it with…offense? They have the 3rd best offense by wRC+ (109) and the 23rd best pitching by WAR. Cobb (3.76 FIP), Price (4.00 FIP), and Moore (4.41 FIP) are a formidable top 3, but they aren’t really pitching like aces even if they have the stuff. They’re playing good defense and hitting well. No matter what people say about the Rays, always expect them to play better than the expectations. Just always.
The Morning Edition (May 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright nearly no-hits the Rockies, settles for a CGSO
- The bullpen nearly blows Darvish’s W in Houston
- Longoria bails out Hellickson with a walk off HR against the Padres
- Stasburg allows 4 unearned runs, but loses anyway to the Cubs
- Buehrle outduels Buchholz as Lind’s HR saves the day
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey against the Pirates (1p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Santana match up in KC (2p Eastern)
- Wilson and Sale try to buoy struggling teams on Sunday Night Baseball (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Cardinals or Tigers staff, which is better?
If you evaluate the above question by WAR, it’s the Tiger easily. They’re first in baseball at 9.5 (11p Eastern Saturday), more than 2 WAR ahead of second place. The Cardinals are 5th, a full four wins back. Yet the Cards ERA is a sparkling 2.92 while the Tigers are at 3.45. If you look at FIP, the Tigers are ahead 2.58 to 3.06. This is a good lesson in run prevention and expected run prevention. The Tigers out pitch the Cardinals in two of three areas in which the pitcher has control; strikeouts and homeruns. What’s funny is that the Cardinals don’t have a much better defense. It appears that they are getting a little better sequencing than the Tigers right now. Additionally, the Tigers starters have 7.5 to the Cardinals 5.6 WAR – so the Cardinals are weighed down by a terrible bullpen. They are 1 and 2 in SP WAR and 3 and 27th in reliever WAR. It’s a fun debate however you wish to slice it and I wouldn’t mind having either starting staff, though I’m partial to the Tigers.
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