The Morning Edition (April 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Joyce walks-off in an 8-7 win over the Orioles
- Joey Votto, not to be outdone, hits a walk-off single not ten minutes later in a 5-4 win over the Halos
- Ervin Santana allows 3 HR in his Royals debut, loses to the White Sox
- Matt Harvey tosses 7 1-hit innings and fans 10 Padres in an 8-4 win
- Halladay strikes out 9, walks 3, and allows 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Braves
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee and Kris Medlen face off in Atlanta in the only premier pitching matchup of the day (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which #3/4 starters will give their teams a boost in the first week?
The early season is a great time for hilarious quirks of small sample sizes. Those of you who follow me on Twitter know that yesterday I was abuzz about Yu Darvish’s -0.27 FIP. In other words, FIP thinks his strikeout rate, walk rate, homerun rate, and IFFB rate should yield outcomes that literally take runs away from the opposing team. That is quite impressive. Another sample size issue I’m tracking is which player is the first past 1.0 WAR. As I write this, Darvish’s 0.6 is the closest, but on average we wouldn’t expect to see it happen until we were about 10-20 games into the season. I think my money will be on Harper. Much of what happened last night can be encapsulated in the lines above, but yesterday was the first day in which all 30 teams were in action and the benefits of that were reaped by those of us watching around 10pm. I really missed watching MLB Network go back and forth as so many games went down to the wire. Man, baseball is great and I’m never sleeping again.
2013 Preseason Awards: American League Rookie of the Year
Yesterday I wrote on the subject of NL Rookie of the Year and pointed out a good preseason candidate is a talented player with a clear path to playing time. Such a player is actually pretty hard to find in both leagues and I found it to be tougher in the American League.
Surprisingly tough. So tough, in fact, that I violated one of the conditions and went for talent alone along with what I believe to be a path to meaningful playing time even if it isn’t full playing time.
There are a ton of great prospects on AL teams, but this one should be the best in 2013. Heck, he should have been up a year ago.
And the award will go to…
Wil Myers (RF – Rays)
Myers was the centerpiece of the Royals’ trade for James Shields this offseason and I was among those to believe it was a foolish move for Kansas City. Myers has the ability to hit and hit for power while playing solid defense in a corner outfield spot. And he’s ready to do it now. He’s not a prospect who needs a lot of seasoning, he’s one who’s ready to contribute.
He should do so this season for the Rays whenever they decide to call him up. It will happen in one of three ways. A key player on the MLB club will get hurt and they’ll need him, he’ll sign a team friendly extension, or June 1st will roll around and his arbitration clock will get pushed back a season. At any rate, Myers figures to get four months or more in the show this year and they should be good enough to earn him some hardware.
He hit 37 homeruns last season to go with his .316/.389/.602 slash line between AA and AAA. He’s a little heavy on the strikeouts but balances it with a lot of walks too. The typical comparison for Myers is a right handed Jay Bruce.
And he’s just 22 years old. Myers is not just the best prospect on the Rays, he’s one of the five or six best in the entire sport. Jurickson Profar is another AL prospect who comes to mind for the 2013 season, but his path to playing time is blocked by All-Stars while Myers is blocked by Matt Joyce, Kelly Johnson, or Luke Scott. Mostly, he’s blocked by service time.
The power hitting outfielder should get a few swings in the minor leagues this Spring before getting the call to St. Pete, but once he’s there he will be there to stay. Myers looks to pair nicely with Evan Longoria in the middle of the Rays order for years to come.
Barring injury, either to Myers or to one of the players keeping Profar out of the lineup in Texas, the smart money is on Myers to claim the Rookie of the Year honors.
2013 Season Preview: American League East
The East is kind of a mess. Boston is coming off a terrible year and a payroll reset. The Orioles had a magical 2012 and did nothing to bolster their club. The Yankees are dropping like flies. The Rays retooled. The Blue Jays got a makeover. Everything is different, but everything also looks kind of similar.
Like, I mean, could any of these teams win 90 and any of them win 75? I think so.
As always, here is how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85, 20)
If everything goes right for the Sox, I can totally see them making a run at a wild card spot, I just don’t feel as confident that they can put it all together as I do about the other teams in the division. They added a lot of players who could provide value, but they didn’t add a lot in terms of difference makers. Dempster and Victorino and Napoli will make the team better, but there are a lot of injury question marks and starting pitchers who I just don’t know how to project. The Sox have talent, I’m just not sure how it’s going to manifest. They won’t be an embarrassment but I don’t expect them in the playoffs.
4. Baltimore Orioles (82-80, 17)
The O’s had a great run in 2012 but 93 wins is a tough act to follow and some modest regression is bound to happen. They also failed to do anything to upgrade the roster that might have given them a shot to repeat last season. This is an average club in a deep division.
3. New York Yankees (85-77, 12)
The Yankees are pinching pennies ahead of the 2014 luxury tax threshold and it’s showing on their 2013 roster. They got outbid by the Pirates on a catcher and can probably only count on superstar performance from Robinson Cano. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have good players like Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia or good supporting pieces like Ichiro and Brett Gardner. The Yankees aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a very good team.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75, 8)
The Jays added a ton of talent this offseason including Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. That’s a lot of wins added to the roster in addition to hopefully an additional half season from Jose Bautista and a bounce back from Rickey Romero. If everything goes right, the Jays could be one of the best teams in the AL. But I’m a bit more conservative on my prediction for them because they added a lot of talent, but it isn’t without question marks. If they play to their potential and stay healthy, they’re a force, but there is fragility among these players. The Jays should be contenders, but I’m not buying them as favorites.
1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71, 3)
The Rays have insane pitching depth, the best manager and front office in the game, and have a history of replacing players who have become too expensive. I see no reason why that won’t work out for them again in 2013 as they ride one of the game’s best five staffs to a division title and a playoff berth.
AL East Cy Young: Matt Moore
AL East MVP: Evan Longoria
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Josh Johnson
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Ichiro will return to form
Boldest of the Bold: The Yankees will seriously listen to trade offers for either Cano or Granderson in July.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 10-1
Over the last two days, SABR Toothed Tigers has released our 2013 MLB Preseason Power Rankings 30-21 and 20-11. Today, we complete the series and take you all the way through number one.
Remember, this list is designed to represent the expected performance of each team in 2013, but not necessarily the win totals of each team. For example, I project the Red Sox to be a better team than the Pirates but I expect the Pirates to win more games as a function of their league, division, and better relationship with an almighty deity than the team from Boston. Check back tomorrow for my Preseason Standings Prediction.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are a very deep team with talent at about every position. The middle infield is a bit iffy going forward but those are two of the less important offensive positions and the rest of their lineup more than makes up for it. The rotation is a good mix of veterans and talented youngsters and the bullpen has a lot of exciting pieces. Nothing about the Cardinals makes me say “wow!” but everything about them makes me think they’re a very good team. I also can’t ignore the incredible comebacks/magic/voodoo/etc of the last two seasons. It’s usually not right to expect weird things to keep happening like that, but I’m not really looking to tempt fate.
9. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are an interesting team because I can talk myself into a lot of different places on this list for them. Probably more so than any other team expect the Dodgers. They added Josh Hamilton, but lost Torii Hunter who was worth more than Hamilton in 2012. They’ll have an everyday role for Peter Bourjos who is among the very best defensive players walking the Earth and Albert Pujols likely won’t struggle as much as he did last April in any month of 2013. In just looking at the offense and defense, I would imagine the Angels should be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. But the pitching looks a lot worse. Jered Weaver should be the same as always and CJ Wilson likely won’t improve upon his 2012 numbers because he simply isn’t that good. After them, instead of Greinke or Haren, you have Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, and stuff. This rotation is pretty good if you want to win 80 games, but I think it’s awful if you want to win 95 like the Angels do. This team has the best player in the league (Trout), the best player of his era (Pujols), and a player with an impossibly high ceiling (Hamilton), but I just can’t bring myself to bet any higher on them with such a suspect pitching staff.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays did excellent work this offseason adding Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, RA Dickey, and others. They are a much better team than they were in 2012 and could also get a full season from Jose Bautista. Even with expected regression from Edwin Encarnacion, this should be a team that scores runs and pitches well. I think they’ll be right in the thick of the AL East race and should also contend for a wild card. My reservations about placing them higher deal with a lot of injury question marks. Bautista is recovering from a wrist injury and hand and wrist injuries tend to have a negative effect on power. I’m not saying he’ll have a down season, but I think it’s more likely than it was before he got hurt. Additionally, while I think Josh Johnson is fantastic, he is also very fragile. Who knows what Melky Cabrera can do without the help of PEDs? Brandon Morrow missed significant time last season. Something was obviously wrong with Ricky Romero, right? So while on paper this is a talented team with a great chance at October baseball, there are concerns large enough to keep them at number eight.
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants return an excellent pitching staff and good defensive club. A full season of Scutaro and Pence should be a marginal improvement, but losing the great “wind-aided” performance of Melky Cabrera will hurt with no clear replacement lined up. If Pablo Sandoval is healthy and Brandon Belt is allowed to do his thing without interference from a silly manager, this team should be on par with last year’s division winning club. It’s a good bullpen and the park tends to work in favor of the team’s design, so I’m willing to bet the Buster Posey led Giants are making another deep run into the postseason.
6. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds should have no trouble winning the NL Central if they are able to remain as healthy as their counterparts. They have the amazing Joey Votto at first and an average to above average player pretty much everywhere. They rotation remained perfectly intact last year and Aroldis Chapman is coming to help them out even more in 2013. With the addition of Choo, the maturing of Cozart and Fraizer, and the continued success of Bruce and Phillips, I can’t really see a glaring whole other than defense in centerfield. This is an all-around good club.
5. Texas Rangers
A lot of people are down on the 2013 Rangers because they didn’t sign or trade for any of their big offseason targets, but I think that means they’re very underrated. If we look at the 2012 Rangers as a pretty true 93 win club who had a bad week at the end, when we compare them to the 2013 version, they hold up great. The pitching should be essentially the same with perhaps a better performance by the adapting Darvish. On offense, they dropped Michael Young’s negative WAR at DH for Lance Berkman and will return everyone else except Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt can easily combine with Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin to approximate the ~4WAR season of Josh Hamilton and AJ Pierzynski steps in to replace Napoli who had a down year on a team that won 93 games. While it can be said that the Rangers missed out on getting a lot better, they also failed to really get worse. This is the overlooked team of the year if you’re into making those types of wagers.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves added a lot this offseason (see: Uptons, all) but they also lost a good amount in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. I like Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman to breakout in compliment with Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The starting pitching is deep and the bullpen is second to none. The Braves aren’t the most exciting team in the league to me, but I think they have the highest floor. It’s hard for me to imagine them having much worse than an upper 80s win season.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
I’m higher on the Rays than most because I’ve seen them over-perform too many times not to believe. Their starting pitching is in the top five and their bullpen always works. They’ve added Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar on offense and are hoping for a full season of Evan Longoria to go with the soon to be called up Wil Myers. Top to bottom, the Rays are probably in the 6-10 range as far as talent goes, but they are so well run from top to bottom, that they will get more out of that talent than the other teams on this list.
2. Detroit Tigers
The 2012 Tigers underperformed and won 88 games. In 2013, they will add Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter and a full season of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They lost nothing of substance from the roster should get at least modest bounce back seasons from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. That is all by way of saying, it’s hard to see how they aren’t one of the surest bets in the league for 2013. 90 wins should be safe and 95-100 is a real possibility given the level of competition they face. They own baseball’s best rotation 1-5 and their only weaknesses are infield defense questions and bullpen uncertainty. And almost everyone has bullpen uncertainty so I can’t really hold that against them. Looking at the Tigers on paper, it’s hard to see how the defending AL champs won’t get a shot to play in October once more.
1. Washington Nationals
The Nationals earn this spot through logic similar to that which put the Tigers at number two. They added Denard Span, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Haren and lost only Edwin Jackson. With an unlimited Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper, there isn’t an argument to be made that the Nats got worse for 2013. Granted, any team can collapse and underperform, but there is no reason to think the Nationals are any more likely to do so than any other team on this list. If the Nationals stay as healthy as their competitors in 2013, they should once again be baseball’s best team.
Tell us what you thought of the 2013 Preseason Power Rankings series in the comments, on Twitter, on Facebook, or via the United States Postal Service. Check back tomorrow for STT’s projected standings.
2012 Season in Review: American League East
What most consider baseball’s toughest division was tough this year as well. The Yankees led the way and the Orioles played out of their minds. The Rays won 90 games. The Sox were bad. The Blue Jays built well in the offseason.
Final Standings:
Playoff Odds across time:
Early 2013 Projected Standings:
2012 Grades:
AL East Cy Young: David Price
AL East MVP: Robinson Cano
2012 Season in Review: Tampa Bay Rays
90-72, 3rd in the AL East
When a team wins 90 games with a Save-A-Lot level budget, it’s hard to be disappointed. But the Rays have turned winning with limited resources into an art form. They can’t get away with pretty good anymore, so third place is third place.
Jack of all trades Ben Zobrist led the way (5.9 WAR) and his teammates Desmond Jennings (3.5), B.J. Upton (3.3), Jeff Keppinger (2.8), and Evan Longoria (2.4 in 74 games) had his back. No other position players made it to 2.0 WAR, but darn it all, Matt Joyce (1.8) came close.
But the pitching, oh my, the pitching. Cy Young winner David Price (5.1) was obviously the staff ace, but he was flanked on all sides but one of the best support staffs around. James Shields (4.3), Matt Moore (2.3), and Alex Cobb (2.2) performed well and Jeremy Hellickson (1.0), who WAR hates, performed pretty well at a 3.10 ERA even if he shouldn’t have.
Also, the Rays had two relievers top 2.0 WAR. RELIEVERS! 2 WAR! Fernando Rodney (2.4) and Jack McGee (2.0) dominated, and Wade Davis and Joel Peralta both hit 1.0 on their own. Man, that bullpen was good.
So the Rays, if one of baseball’s toughest divisions, were really good and won 90 games. They could have used a little more production from first base and the half a year at third base that Longoria missed, but you can’t really ask for much more. Two more wins against the Orioles and they were playing in October.
And the Rays show no signs of stopping. They restocked the farm by taking everyone in the Royals farm system and they filled in holes in the lineup. Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson both have question marks, but they have high upside for low risk contracts.
I’m a big believer in the Rays formula and a full season of Longoria and more Joe Maddon magic should keep the Rays in contention. Very much in contention if you ask me. The fans might not show up and the stadium might be a dive, but they play baseball better than most.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
Royals Talk Themselves Into Something, Rays Take Advantage
On Sunday night, the Royals went for it and Tampa Bay just let them do it. The Royals traded top prospect OF Wil Myers, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard to the Rays for James Shields and Wade Davis.
This trade is rich with analytical possibilities, so bear with me here. From an actual value standpoint, it’s hard not to think the Rays robbed the Royals like they hadn’t eaten in weeks. Two years of James Shields at $9 million plus matched with a couple cheap years of Wade Davis followed by some more expensive years of Wade Davis for six years of all of those prospects who will earn the league minimum for the first three years.
Myers is perhaps the best hitting prospect in baseball. Odorizzi is a top arm. Montgomery is risky, but has a high ceiling. Leonard has power.
We know Shields is a great pitcher and Davis is at worst a great reliever and at best a solid starter.
The Rays got more total value, but if the Royals are truly trying to win in 2013, they are taking a risk that they believe will pay off. The Royals will be better in 2013 because of this deal, but they will be worse in the future because of it. That’s a generous way to put it.
But should the Royals have made this choice? They added a very good starting pitcher and a potentially solid starter, but as a result, they will keep the much worse Jeff Francouer in RF instead of Wil Myers. How many wins will that net them? I’ll be generous and call that 4 to 5 wins. That’s certainly not enough to win the division in 2013. And we’ve already decided that after the two years of Shields are over, this deal slants heavily in favor of the Rays.
So why did the Royals do it? Simple, I think. The Royals owners told GM Dayton Moore to win in 2013 or he’d be fired. Therefore, Dayton Moore traded away the future to improve his 2013 chances. All he cares about is 2013. This is a net gain in 2013 and a net loss everywhere else. Moore doesn’t care about that because he has to save his job. That’s the only explanation.
From the Rays side, this is another awesome Rays move. They traded Shields and Davis, but they have a ton of pitching depth and they got two more back. Myers slots into RF this year and the team is better off and cheaper because they can replace Shields in-house in a way that no other team could.
The Rays got four good to great players who cost nothing in exchange for two more expensive pitchers and one is a free agent after 2014.
Bu this deal is also a proven player versus prospect story. Lots of old school people are talking about Shields as a lot more valuable than Myers because he’s a proven guy. But the reality here is much different. Myers may turn out to be a bust, but he’s one of the safest bets as far as prospects go. He’s a young, good position player who hit well in the minors. His bust chances are low relative to other prospects.
Shields has shown he can play in majors for years, but if he blows out his elbow in April, this trade is a disaster. The Royals didn’t take on much less risk. Veterans are risky too. Everything is risky.
This is a bad deal for the Royals. They gave up some of their best prospects including one of the best in the game for a shot at winning in 2013 and 2014, but they didn’t get much better and aren’t close enough to contending for that to even matter. This was a desperate trade by a GM who is on the hot seat.
This is a great deal for the Rays because they can replace Shields and Davis, they saved money, and they get a great young outfielder.
This is all coming from a place in which I love James Shields. I think Shields is one of the most underrated players in the game. Innings eating pitchers with great changeups are my favorite. The Royals got a good one, they just paid way too much after they tricked themselves into thinking that they could contend this season.
Grade (Royals): D, Grade (Rays): A
Rays Extend Best Contract in Baseball, Evan Longoria is now Rich, Awesome, and Loyal
Baseball’s most team friendly deal just got longer. It didn’t get better, but that would have been impossible.
This morning, the Tampa Bay Rays signed Evan Longoria to a 6 year, $100 million extension that tacks on to the end of their current accord.
Let’s summarize Longoria’s salary progression:
2008: $500,000
2009: $550,000
2010: $950,000
2011: $2,000,000
2012: $4,500,000
2013: $6,000,000
2014: $7,500,000
2015: $11,000,000
2016: $11,500,000
2017-2022: $16,667,000 (average, breakdown unknown at time of publishing)
2023: (undisclosed option at time of publishing)
Basically, Longoria’s first three seasons brought him standard pre-arbitration payment with a touch of sweetener. In what would have been his arbitration seasons, he will make $12.5 million. That’s about what Hunter Pence will earn in arbitration next year alone.
Needless to say, the Rays made a good investment with the first contract that guaranteed money through in 2013. Longoria ended up earning a lot less than he could of, but he opted for certainty over potential.
The new deal exercises the options from the first deal (14-16) and adds 6-7 more seasons. Longoria’s going to average $14.4 million over the life of this deal (not counting the 2023 option). He’s basically going to be paid to average 2-3 WAR over the next ten seasons after averaging 6 WAR through his first five seasons that included three seasons of less than 140 games.
His average WAR is 6 despite only playing two full seasons, two majority seasons, and one half season. That’s pretty awesome given that he is entering his prime according to our conception of aging in MLB. According to Fangraphs’ Salary numbers, Longoria has already been worth $128 million in his career. To earn the rest of his contract, he essentially only has to match his value over the next ten years with the last five.
This is a great deal for the club given the kind of money flying around to players these days. 10 year, $200 plus million deals are everywhere. Pujols, Fielder, and Votto all got that in the last 12 months.
Certainly Longoria could have earned more on the open market, but he’s also going to have more money than any reasonable person can spend for the rest of his life. He’s tied to one city and one team. He’ll easily earn 10 and 5 rights if the deal doesn’t include its own no-trade clause. He’s basically mapped out his professional career at 27 years old.
He’s an elite third baseman now, but he can move to 1B and then DH as he ages if need be. The Rays only need him to be pretty good to earn his contract and he’s set for life on a team he loves either way. Longoria can basically guarantee he’ll retire as the greatest Ray of all time and he’ll be a very rich man.
So while the Longoria contract is no longer a giant steal, it’s still a steal. It’s probably no longer the best contract in baseball because he’s making more than $500,000, but it’s still amazing.
Everyone wins, especially baseball fans in Tampa Bay. If any ex-Marlins fans are looking for a new team to follow, the guys in St. Pete are actually building a winner in a small market, and their poster-boy is now a Ray for life.
New English D 