The Morning Edition (April 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Justin Upton’s 4-hit game powers the Braves past the Marlins
- Matt Harvey pitches brilliantly again while Halladay struggles as the Mets beat the Phillies 7-2
- Mitchell Boggs vomits up the game as the Reds rally for 9 runs in the 9th to top the Cards 13-4
- Clay Buchholz shines as the Red Sox beat the O’s on Opening Day in Boston
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jake Peavy and Gio Gonzalez hook up in D.C. (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee tries to get the Phillies rotation back on track against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- The ageless Andy Pettitte tries to quiet the Indians’ bats (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we watching the end of Roy Halladay?
Three things stood out on Monday in major league baseball. Let’s take them in turn. First, Mitchell Boggs gave up 6 earned runs to go with his four walks in 1/3 of an inning. This is particularly notable because he’s on my fantasy baseball team, so I can tell you that calculates out to a 162.00 ERA and 18.00 WHIP for the day. Good grief. Second, Matt Harvey is very good. The Phillies aren’t the best offense in baseball, but his 7IP, 3H, 1R, 2BB, 9K line is hard to ignore. For the season, he’s 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 1.14 FIP and a 12.21 K/9. Stats don’t mean much over two starts, but those are pretty snazzy. Matt Harvey is officially my non-Tiger man-crush of 2013. Third, Roy Halladay might be slipping away from us. Against the Mets on Monday he went 4IP, gave up 7 earned runs, walked 3, and struckout just 3 as well. His ERA on the season is 14.73. Again, you don’t want to make too much of the numbers, but Halladay, after a rough 2012 and rough spring, just doesn’t look like the pitcher we used to know. A one time surgeon of the strikezone, now looks as if he is using Apple Maps to find it. Just two years ago, at the start of 2011, I wouldn’t have batted an eye that Doc was the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he didn’t make my top 9 NL pitchers. I’m not sure he’s in the top 40 right now. He has to be hurt, right? It’s tough to watch.
The Morning Edition (April 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- BJ Upton hits a game tying homerun in the 9th inning against the Cubs, Justin Upton follows him with a walk off
- The Nats top the Reds in 11 innings
- Albert Pujols’ big day powers the Angels past the Rangers
- Kershaw blanks the Pirates over 7 innings in LA
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Dickey face off in Toronto (1p Eastern)
- Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez makes his MLB debut at Citi Field (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg looks to follow his excellent opening day against the Reds (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Angels in his near perfecto encore (8p Eastern)
- Lots of other aces in action including: Sabathia, Verlander, Cueto, Samardizija, Shields, Hamels, Price, Sale, Wainwright, Cain, and Weaver
The Big Question:
- What first week standouts will carry their success into week two of the season?
The first week of the MLB season is always exciting but it is often hard to distinguish between players because of very small sample sizes. I’m looking forward to seeing which players level out and regress to the mean and which players are in for better and worse than expected seasons. We really want to make meaningful conclusions about these games, but it’s just too early. That said, aside from Chris Davis, here are a couple players I’m watching at the start of week two to see if they are candidates for early season standout status:
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Justin Upton
- Chase Utley
- Austin Jackson
None of those players are surprises, they just have my attention for now for various reasons. The first two are on new clubs, Utley looks healthy, and Jackson is a talented guy entering his prime on a great club.
Thanks for reading New English D this week and we look forward to talking baseball with you throughout the season.
2013 Season Preview: American League East
The East is kind of a mess. Boston is coming off a terrible year and a payroll reset. The Orioles had a magical 2012 and did nothing to bolster their club. The Yankees are dropping like flies. The Rays retooled. The Blue Jays got a makeover. Everything is different, but everything also looks kind of similar.
Like, I mean, could any of these teams win 90 and any of them win 75? I think so.
As always, here is how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85, 20)
If everything goes right for the Sox, I can totally see them making a run at a wild card spot, I just don’t feel as confident that they can put it all together as I do about the other teams in the division. They added a lot of players who could provide value, but they didn’t add a lot in terms of difference makers. Dempster and Victorino and Napoli will make the team better, but there are a lot of injury question marks and starting pitchers who I just don’t know how to project. The Sox have talent, I’m just not sure how it’s going to manifest. They won’t be an embarrassment but I don’t expect them in the playoffs.
4. Baltimore Orioles (82-80, 17)
The O’s had a great run in 2012 but 93 wins is a tough act to follow and some modest regression is bound to happen. They also failed to do anything to upgrade the roster that might have given them a shot to repeat last season. This is an average club in a deep division.
3. New York Yankees (85-77, 12)
The Yankees are pinching pennies ahead of the 2014 luxury tax threshold and it’s showing on their 2013 roster. They got outbid by the Pirates on a catcher and can probably only count on superstar performance from Robinson Cano. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have good players like Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia or good supporting pieces like Ichiro and Brett Gardner. The Yankees aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a very good team.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75, 8)
The Jays added a ton of talent this offseason including Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. That’s a lot of wins added to the roster in addition to hopefully an additional half season from Jose Bautista and a bounce back from Rickey Romero. If everything goes right, the Jays could be one of the best teams in the AL. But I’m a bit more conservative on my prediction for them because they added a lot of talent, but it isn’t without question marks. If they play to their potential and stay healthy, they’re a force, but there is fragility among these players. The Jays should be contenders, but I’m not buying them as favorites.
1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71, 3)
The Rays have insane pitching depth, the best manager and front office in the game, and have a history of replacing players who have become too expensive. I see no reason why that won’t work out for them again in 2013 as they ride one of the game’s best five staffs to a division title and a playoff berth.
AL East Cy Young: Matt Moore
AL East MVP: Evan Longoria
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Josh Johnson
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Ichiro will return to form
Boldest of the Bold: The Yankees will seriously listen to trade offers for either Cano or Granderson in July.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11
Yesterday I gave you the bottom third of my 2013 Preseason Rankings and today I present you with the middle third. Remember, this is how I view the quality of each team for 2013 and not how many wins I believe each team will accumulated. For example, I have the #21 Pirates winning more games than the team ahead of them because I expect them to have an easier time in their own division and think they’ll benefit from more good fortune as well.
20. Boston Red Sox
It’s been a rough 18 months for the Red Sox, but they enter 2013 without the weight of big contracts or expectations. They shed payroll thanks to the big spending Dodgers and made smaller commitments to free agents this offseason like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, David Ross, Johnny Gomes, and Ryan Dempster. The Sox have a pitching staff that should bounce back to some degree in 2013 and adding Joel Hanrahan should thicken up the back end of the pen. I think the Sox will be respectable this season, but I couldn’t make a case for them in the top half of the teams in the league and felt more comfortable calling them the 20th best team for 2013.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a pretty good offensive team led by Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, but their pitching is somewhat suspect. Without any serious moves to improve their rotation or bullpen, I couldn’t do much to move them up this list. Expect the Crew to hit well, but I can’t see them preventing enough runs to make a postseason run.
18. New York Mets
I think the Mets are one elite outfielder and one pretty good outfielder away from being a legitimate playoff contender. They have a franchise player in David Wright and some nice supporting pieces on offense, but that usually won’t be enough to knock on the door of 90 wins. I’m a huge fan of the Mets rotation, even without Dickey in 2013 and think the bullpen should be better than it was a season ago. I don’t think this is the year for the Mets, but I also think they are a lot better than people think.
17. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a great 2012 season, but that greatness came on the backs of a lot of good fortune. I find it hard to believe they’ll be as lucky in extra inning and one run games again in 2013 and they also didn’t make any upgrades to the roster. A full season of Manny Machado will help and Dylan Bundy may get a chance to make an impact, but I’m expecting a low to mid 80s win total rather than a mid 90s one.
16. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are just a really average team. They have some frontline arms, but not much depth in the rotation or the pen for my taste. A lot of their bats have breakout potential, but they’re also very inconsistent. We saw last season, with much of the same roster, that a team like this can have a few good months, but they almost never hold up over a full season. This is an 80-85 win team in its purest form.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks made a lot of moves this offseason. They dealt Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Trevor Bauer, but got back Martin Prado, and many prospects and depth pieces. I think their pitching depth is phenomenal, but I think their top tier is lacking. On offense they have a lot of players I really like, but also have holes and question marks. This is a pretty good team and their ranking is more a function of how I feel about other teams than how I feel about them. While I told you I couldn’t put the Red Sox higher than 15th, I should probably say I can’t imagine putting the Dbacks any lower than this.
14. Oakland Athletics
Oakland is going to need some good luck to get back to 94 wins this season, but Billy Beane and they A’s had a nice offseason. They added some low cost high upside pieces that I think will pay off, but if last year’s formula is going to work, a lot of players are going to have to repeat career best type performances. I’m not sure they can do that, but I’d look for them to remain relevant into September.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have an incredible top three in their rotation and one of baseball’s best relievers anchoring their pen. They also have a great middle infield and an up and coming centerfielder. I worry deeply about everything else. They are a mess in the corners and their catcher is out for the first twenty five games of the season. This team has the ability to be very good, but I think their floor is also pretty low as well. I like them enough to put them in the top 13, but they could easily fall back if some of their gambles start to turn sour quickly.
12. New York Yankees
The Yankees are aging, but they’re still a talented team even if they aren’t the best team in the league anymore. The top of the rotation is good, but it lacks depth and offensive side is deep even if their star power is waning. A playoff berth wouldn’t surprise me for the Yanks, but I think they’ll be just on the outside this year.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
They spent a ton of money via free agency and trades, but I’m still not sold on the Dodgers as a great team. They’re weak at 3B, 2B and potentially in the corner outfield spots depending on health. They have an excellent top two in the rotation, but I don’t love it south of there. The Dodgers are a good team, but paying Crawford and Gonzalez $40 million a season doesn’t scream playoff berth. You know how I know that? The Red Sox have already tried it twice.
Check back tomorrow for spots 10-1.
2012 Season in Review: American League East
What most consider baseball’s toughest division was tough this year as well. The Yankees led the way and the Orioles played out of their minds. The Rays won 90 games. The Sox were bad. The Blue Jays built well in the offseason.
Final Standings:
Playoff Odds across time:
Early 2013 Projected Standings:
2012 Grades:
AL East Cy Young: David Price
AL East MVP: Robinson Cano
2012 Season in Review: Boston Red Sox
69-93, 5th in the AL East
Characterizing the 2012 Red Sox is a difficult task. They won less than 70 games with a big payroll and moderately high expectations. But they had also come off one of the worst September collapses in history and told Terry Francona not to come back in favor of Bobby Valentine. Players got hurt and old and disgruntled. All of that sounds really bad. And it was. But late summer and fall shined brighter. Valentine is gone. Big contracts have been shed and Ben Cherington may have wrestled control of the franchise away from the drunk at the wheel ownership.
On the field in 2012 a number of hitters performed well. Dustin Pedroia led the way (4.5 WAR) and was backed up by David Ortiz (3.0 in 90 games), Adrian Gonzalez (2.8), Cody Ross (2.4), Will Middlebrooks (2.1), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.0). Heck, I almost spelled Saltalamacchia correctly without looking it up, so that’s something in itself.
So while the offense was respectable, the pitching struggled. Jon Lester was good (3.3), but not nearly the ace he needed to be. When Felix Doubront (2.1) is second on your staff in WAR, that should say a lot. Clay Buchholz (1.9) and Josh Beckett (1.8) disappointed and a lot of starts went to Aaron Cook (0.2), Dice-K Matsuzaka (-0.1), and Daniel Bard (-0.4), so that should also say something about your team.
The bullpen didn’t impress, but they had some nice pieces. Nothing to overcome the poor starting pitching, but nothing that caused a great downfall on their own.
In general, the team performed poorly. Every other day, clubhouse gossip came out about people not getting along and the manager fighting off mutinies. It was a supremely silly affair and it is unsurprising that the team played poorly in its wake. Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, and Youkilis were all sent packing in the hopes of starting over.
It looks like they will have that chance. With the additions of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, and David Ross among others, the Sox should be a leaner fighting machine in 2013. Their pitching should bounce back to some degree and John Farrell should offer a better environment than Bobby V.
This will likely be a year of transition for the Sox. They dumped a lot of heavy contracts on the Dodgers, so they will have flexibility to build a better team going forward. Those fixes aren’t all in place, so the immediate prospects aren’t great, even if the long term prospects are solid. This is a club rich in dollars and fan support and lacking in any serious long term commitments.
September 2011 was the fall from grace. Early 2012 was rock bottom. By September 2012, the Sox were back on track, even if it will take a while to get back to the promise land.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 78-84
Josh Hamilton and the White Sox Get Closer to Finding Each Other
A few weeks ago I wrote about the strange free agent situation surrounding Josh Hamilton. You can read the post here, but let’s consider where we are right now.
The Rangers will not sign Hamilton if they sign Greinke, which looks pretty likely. If they sign Greinke, they will trade for Upton and Hamilton will not have the Rangers as an option. The two clubs with the most buzz for Hamilton other than the Rangers are the Mariners and the Red Sox.
In the post linked above, I told you the White Sox were the real team to watch. I said they would trade Viciedo or De Aza and would add a lefty power bat. Hamilton would fit perfectly. Here’s a post on MLB Trade Rumors yesterday:
It’s happening. Hamilton will sign with the White Sox for 5/110. I can’t guarantee I’ll be right, but I feel better about this prediction than when I made it.
Red Sox Sign Victorino
The Red Sox continue to remake their team this winter and signed OF Shane Victorino to a 3 year deal worth $37.5-$39 million depending on who you ask. The Sox needed OF help and Victorino has been worth 3 plus wins in each of the last six seasons. He’s probably never going to make another run at 5.0 WAR, but he should be a useful outfielder for the Sox over the next couple seasons.
He’s not a great player on offense anymore but he doesn’t strike out and has a solid glove that should play up in a corner outfield spot. This isn’t a great player, but $12-13 million a season doesn’t buy what it used to. It’s a very interesting market for outfielders with a lot of very different players with very different skill sets. Bourn, Swisher, and Hamilton are left and the Red Sox are no longer in the market for them, so we should be getting closer to a resolution.
News from Nashville: Winter Meetings Buzz (Monday)
The news of the day from Nashville comes in many parts, but these are the three that caught my eye.
Red Sox sign C/1B/DH Mike Napoli, 3 years, $39 million
The Sox needed someone to play first base and hit for power after they traded away most of their team to the Dodgers in August and Napoli qualifies. I think a lot of this deal comes from his awesome but lucky 2011 rather than his pretty good 2012. Napoli can certainly be a useful hitter in 2013 and beyond but there’s no way he can provide a lot of value on defense.
He’s a DH who won’t embarrass himself at 1B and can catch on occasion. The Sox already have David Ortiz at DH and have a lot of options at catcher, so Napoli figures to be the starting first baseman. They probably should have gone with LaRoche here, but the deal isn’t too big to turn me off. Grade: B-
Anibal Sanchez is asking for 6 years and $90 million
A couple of things to note here. First, a rumor went around that the Tigers offered 4/48 and Sanchez was insulted. Jason Beck of MLB.com says that the rumor is inaccurate, so maybe this isn’t a thing.
The other thing to note here is that a former The Guy Show personality and I had this exchange over the Sanchez news (edited for emphasis):
Him: No way I’m paying Sanchez $90m and no way I give anyone six years!
Me: If you don’t want to sign six year deals, you will never sign big time free agents.
Him: For that money I would want Greinke.
Me: Greinke will sign for many millions more than that.
Him: I would do 6/110.
Me: Then he will sign with the Dodgers and not you.
What we can learn from this exchange is twofold. One, the Tigers won’t sign Sanchez because he wants #2 starter money. The Tigers have two #2 starters already and don’t need a third. Other teams need #2 starters a lot more, and will in turn, pay more for them. Two, Sanchez is not asking for too much. Six years is always risky, but $15 million a season is a fair price if you’re confident in his ability to stay healthy relative to other pitchers.
Salaries are bigger now than they used to be. Teams are paying $5 million per WAR right now and the new TV money is going to bump that up to closer to $7 million per WAR in the near future. Sanchez is worth 3.0 WAR, so this is not an overpay.
R.A. Dickey Trade Talk
Lots of buzz around the Mets dealing Dickey and the Royals and Rangers seem interested. Hard to tell how much of this is media driven speculation and how much is actually happening.
I’m undecided about this move because I think the Mets aren’t that far away and could contend by 2014 if they play things right. Dickey seems willing to sign and extension if it’s a fair deal and knuckleballers age well. If they buy his ability to actually replicate the last two seasons, they should keep him. If they think he’s a flash in the pan, they should move him.
Also! Big news! A-Rod needs surgery and will be out until May or June. I’m sure you are very surprised because none of the national media is covering this story!
New English D 