The Morning Edition (May 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman blows Latos’ gem, but the offense bails him out
- Middlebrooks knocks in 3 in the 9th to beat Rodney and the Rays
- The Mets get 4 runs on Wainwright and Niese pitches them to victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Cingrani and Lee hook up in Philly (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz takes on the Twins (8p Eastern)
- Bumgarner takes on Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you guys see Kinsler last night?
It’s happening again. Mike Trout has climbed to 3rd in MLB in Wins Above Replacement (as I write this at 11p 5/16). Some attention was called to his slow start, but here he is on May 16 hitting .291/.365/.545 good for 148 wRC+ and 2.3 WAR. For what it’s worth, in May, he’s hitting .358/.426/.792. I’m feeling better about MVP pick – except for the fact that he’s on a terrible team, so no one will vote for him. And in case it comes up later, he’s .333/.380/.619 with runners in scoring position, not that I’m big on that stat but some people are.
The Morning Edition (May 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Choo gets 4 hits, 2 homers as the Reds beat the Fish
- Mariners crush the Yanks, Alberto Gonzalez pitches, Vernon Wells plays 2B
- Price leaves with an injury as Lester and the Sox roll over the Rays
- Greinke returns to the mound against the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright welcomes the Mets to St. Louis (130p Eastern)
- Cobb tries to last longer, but strikeout just as many against the Sox (7p Eastern)
- Verlander and Darvish (8p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- With the injury to Price, will my prediction that Moore will out-pitch him come true?
The Rays are being the Rays. After a rough start they are back in the thick of the division race and they are doing it with…offense? They have the 3rd best offense by wRC+ (109) and the 23rd best pitching by WAR. Cobb (3.76 FIP), Price (4.00 FIP), and Moore (4.41 FIP) are a formidable top 3, but they aren’t really pitching like aces even if they have the stuff. They’re playing good defense and hitting well. No matter what people say about the Rays, always expect them to play better than the expectations. Just always.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bailey goes the distances, punches out 10 Marlins in 6-2 win
- McCutchen walks off in 12
- Kershaw dominates the Nationals, but comes one out shy of the CGSO
- Felix outduels CC, but the Mariners bullpen gives it back as they lose to the Yanks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester draws Price at the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Mets (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to action (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Greinke be on his game after missing a month?
I miss Brandon Inge and he is Mr. Utility this year. Entering Tuesday, he has played 2.1 innings at 1B, 58.2 innings at 2B, 18 innings at 3B, and 13 innings in RF. Tuesday, he played SS. That appearance at short now completes his collection of positions in his MLB career. Brandon Inge has done everything but pitch at the MLB level (which he did in college). Love that guy. He’s also hitting .273/.304/.318 in 47 PA as I write this. That’s nothing special, but it’s a very nice utility player. I’ll always be rooting for him.
The Morning Edition (May 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Indians homer their way to a win over the A’s
- Shields throws 8 scoreless, but his offense fails him as the the White Sox win in 11
- Simmons homers twice as the Braves beat the Reds 7-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Medlen and Bailey bring identical 3.38 ERAs to GABP (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces baseball’s second worse offense, the White Sox, at Citi (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy and Beckett face off in a battle of erstwhile stars (10p Eastern)
- And don’t forget Sanchez vs Zimmermann in DC! (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Harvey respond coming off his first short outing?
Don’t look now, but 20 year old 3B Manny Machado is doing a Trout and Harper impression and has placed himself 4th on the WAR leaderboard (1.7). Machado is hitting .309/.352/.522 for a 135 wRC+ to go with his sterling 6.9 UZR/6 DRS. He’s playing gold glove defense at third and he’s hitting like a star. We’ve talked a lot about how Harper and Trout are generational talents and they’ve spoiled us for other young players, but Mr. Machado isn’t so sure he’s ready to give up so soon. As I write this, just one AL position player has a higher WAR. Perhaps you’ve heard of him: Miguel Cabrera.
The Morning Edition (May 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Garcia leads the Cards past the Reds with 8 strong
- Shields leads the Royals past his former team 8-2
- The Indians hit 7 HR including 2 more from Ryan Raburn as they rough up Halladay and the Phils
- More than 46 HR hit across MLB
What I’m Watching Today:
- Control savant Cliff Lee faces wild and exciting Trevor Bauer in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz tries to stay hot against the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann tries to stay hot as Maholm tries to bounce back at Turner Field (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Seriously, what was up with all the runs scored last night?
The Indians offense pummeled the Phillies and Roy Halladay who did not look like the guy who tossed a couple good starts in a row. He’s not going to be a 6.00 ERA guy, but I don’t know that we’ll ever see the surgeon of the strikezone again. Ryan Raburn is being Ryan Raburn. He’s 7-8 with 4 HR in his last two games and is just crushing the ball right now. He’s the most engaging, streaky hitter I’ve ever seen. When it’s going good, he’s Babe Ruth and when it’s going bad he’s a reasonably good middle schooler. I just can’t look away. It’s a lot of fun.
The Morning Edition (April 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Reds and Latos edge the Cards and Wainwright 2-1
- Ryan Raburn’s 4 hits and 2 HR power a strong Ubaldo past the Royals 9-0
- Braves slip past the Nats 3-2 thanks to a Simmons sac fly
- Marlins and Mets play deep into the night as Harvey goes 5.1 and allows 1 run and Stanton leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay looks to stay hot against the Tribe (7p Eastern)
- Lester and Morrow face off in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Gio and Hudson duel in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Shields faces Cobb and his old team in KC (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you choose what to watch tomorrow? (Verlander at 7p too!)
Matt Harvey limited the Marlins to 1 run in 5.1 innings with 7 K’s on Monday, but it took him 121 pitches in his least efficient outing to date. Yes, we’re disappointed in a 1 run performance. Thanks for setting that bar, Harvey. Carl Crawford is also having a solid start to his first season with the Dodgers after I said he’d be a platoon player by the Dog Days. He’s got 4 homers and 4 steals in 102 PA (at 12:07am on April 30) to go with his .311/.392/.522 line and 1.4 WAR. I’m not ready to say he’s back to being the Crawford who reigned in Tampa, but he’s certainly better than I expected him to be this year. And don’t look now, but even after tonight’s loss to the Reds, Adam Wainwright has vaulted above 2 WAR in April (2.1) and guys who provide that kind of value in April, usually have big years. I predicted he’d be a top 5 NL starter this year, but if I could do it all over again, he’d be in my top 3.
The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
The Morning Edition (April 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Giancarlo Stanton hits his first HR of the season, but the Fish fall to the Cubs 3-2
- Westbrook throws 6 scoreless innings, but the bullpen gives it away to the Pirates
- Harper homers as the Nats back Dan Haren in a 6-3 win over the Reds
- Matt Moore strikes out 9 in 6 innings as the Rays been the White Sox 10-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dickey tries to find Cy Young form in the Bronx (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Niese hook up in a battle of NL East lefties (1p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller tries to keep the rookie magic alive against the Bucs (2p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces the Padres (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Stanton’s big homerun enough to silence the worriers? (Mostly fantasy owners, because the Marlins don’t really have fans anymore)
As I write this, the two highest position players on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Upton and Shin Shoo Choo. I’ve written about both in this space previously, but the point I’d like to make today is that both were traded this offseason and both trades involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, we know the Dbacks dealt Upton to the Braves in a package deal that saw Martin Prado as the key return. They also played a role in the Choo deal, as they sent Bauer to Cleveland and got Gregorious from the Reds (via Choo). I’m not sure how long it would take me to verify this, but I can’t imagine that the two best players in the league in a given season had ever been involved in trades made by the same team during the previous winter. Now this doesn’t mean the Dbacks won’t make the playoffs, but I would have to imagine they would have a better shot if they have Upton and/or Choo right now. I mean, Parra is a very good outfielder, but he only has a spot in the lineup because of injuries to Eaton, Ross, and Kubel so far. The Diamondbacks might not understand outfielders.
The Morning Edition (April 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Normally we don’t talk Tigers here, but check out Anibal Sanchez striking out 17 Braves in a 10-0 win
- Jordan Zimmermann twirls a CGSO against the Reds in a 1-0 win (91 pitches, 1 hit)
- Kyle Kendrick also delivers a CGSO in a 4-0 win over the Mets
- Rizzo delivers 2 homeruns in a 4-3 win over the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lefties face off in New York as Sabathia and Happ duel (4p Eastern)
- Under-the-radar standouts, Burnett and Garcia, battle in St. Louis (4p Eastern)
- Must-see Matt Moore faces the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez takes the hill (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which great performance was your favorite, Sanchez, Zimmermann, or Kendrick?
Friday was a fun night if you like pitching. You can read about Anibal Sanchez’s 17 strikeout night here, but Zimmermann and Kendrick delivered excellent performances as well. Sorry, Kendrick, but yours was the least interesting. Sanchez went 8 and struckout 17 and Zimmermann went 9 and only needed 91 pitches. Textbook examples of two kinds of domination. Sanchez overpowered and went with strikeouts and Zimmermann just induced easy out after easy out. If you have the time, go watch the highlights and enjoy. Man, great pitching is fun. Sorry to Rizzo, Encarnacion, and Beltran, but multi-homer games don’t measure up.
The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
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