The Morning Edition (June 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tropical Storm Andrea washes out 3 games and soaks the offices of New English D with 5 inches of rain
- Wainwright cruises as the Cards thump the Reds
- Jennings’ 2 run HR lifts the Rays over the O’s
- Liriano walks 5, but goes 7 to beat the Cubs 2-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish goes north to play the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Harvey (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz goes against the Angels (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who is this week’s surprising leaderboard climber?
That would be Michael Cuddyer. All of a sudden, he’s 6th in MLB in wRC+ with 161, trailing just Davis, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Goldschmidt, and CarGo. Take your time, read that list. What do you see? Three Colorado Rockies. They have 3 of the top 6 hitters in baseball and 4 of the top 28 (Fowler), but then everyone else is below MLB average and they’re 10th overall with 101 wRC+ as a club. I had them as one of the worst teams in baseball coming in to the season, but their pitching is performing better than I expected, but the key is the health of their big hitters. They don’t have the depth to fill in, but Tulo and CarGo are as good as almost any pair in the game when they are healthy.
The Morning Edition (June 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The first night of the MLB Draft features some surprises, Appel, Bryant, Gray go 1-2-3
- Rosales’ 10th inning HR beats the White Sox
- Four run 8th gets the Royals past the Twins
- Miller, after being named to my Appointment TV list, Ks 9 in 6 innings and homers as the Cards beat the Dbacks
- Ortiz walks off as Holland and Lester both meander through 6
What I’m Watching Today:
- Middle rounds of the MLB Draft (1p Eastern)
- Harvey and Hernandez face off in New York (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces the Reds (7p Eastern)
- Lee heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Cain versus Corbin in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kuroda gets Bonderman’s 2nd start (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which clubs will look back on last night as a building block en route to a title?
I’m not the world’s best guy for draft analysis, but I’ll give you my brief thoughts. First of all, if you’re looking for who went where, I can direct you here, among other places. The reason I’m not the best guy for draft analysis is not because I don’t know anything about amateur baseball, but rather because I don’t like to give analysis that isn’t based on my own observation. Almost everyone who was and will be drafted this weekend are guys I haven’t seen myself, so I’d rather direct you to guys like Keith Law or Jonathan Mayo or Baseball America. I could give you reports about guys based on things I’ve read, but you can read. I’m much more useful to you as someone who analyzes baseball players I’ve seen in person and on TV and in the box score. I have, however, seen Colin Moran, who went 6th overall to the Marlins. He’s a 3B with a great approach and a very good hit tool. Some question if the power will come and if he can stick at third, but I’m bullish there. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but a good approach can play for me. Here are some picks I liked from the first day:
Plenty of teams got good players, but those stand out to me as teams who made good choices when presented with a lot of options.
The Morning Edition (June 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners and White Sox take a 0-0 game into the 14th, each score 5, but the Sox win it in 16
- CarGo hits 3 HR and Tulo hits 2 HR as the Rockies smash the Reds
- Byrd homers twice to back a solid outing by Gee over the Nats
- Dickey helps his own cause at the plate and nearly misses a CGSO
- Hamels finally looks like Hamels, striking out 11 Marlins
- Sabathia gives up 4, but gets the CG win against the Indians
- Teheran nearly no-hits the Pirates
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Holland duel in Boston (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Dbacks, looks to earn Appointment Television title in the process (8p Eastern)
- Greinke tries to straighten out against the Braves (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will populate the top picks in today’s draft?
While there is plenty of exciting baseball on today, the MLB Draft will take center stage for most die hard fans. Unlike the NFL Draft, the MLB version doesn’t turn itself into an entire season in and of itself, but rather calls attention to itself in more subtle and sophisticated ways. Only a handful of mock drafts are done and only the first two rounds get airtime. A few names to know for the first pick are Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Kris Bryant, and Colin Moran, but it still remains unclear as to who the Astros will take first overall. I’m hoping for the Tar Heel, Moran, not because he’s the best, but because I’m a grad student at UNC and am hoping he drops several hundred dollars on his way back from signing the contract. If you’re new to the process, the key difference between the MLB Draft and others is that MLB teams are always drafting the best player available and do not focus on their current positional needs. NFL picks are expected to contribute right away, but MLB picks go through a seasoning process. For example, the Tigers will take a 3B with their pick if he’s the best player left even though they have a big of a logjam at the position. If you’re looking for a primer on the top picks, I suggest Mark Anderson’s work at BPN:
The Morning Edition (June 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Molina and Beltran homer to back Lynn against the Snakes
- Medlen shines as Burnett stumbles
- Arroyo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rox
- Kendrick hits a 3B and goes the distance to beat the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Mets in DC (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Sanchez in Detroit (7p Eastern)
- Skaggs and Wacha make prospect hounds drool in STL (8p Eastern)
- Peavy and Felix out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should the All-Star Game be?
Someone on Twitter asked Keith Law if Matt Carpenter should be an All-Star, which Law disagreed with because
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/341747971655872512
I’m curious what other people think, but I like when the All-Star game features a mix of star players and lesser known guys having good opening months. I understand his argument is that MLB wants to showcase the stars to expand the popularity of the sport, but I think national media events should be a time for the sport to turn its unsung players into stars. I don’t like when ESPN and Fox only talk about Jeter and Sabathia and Big Papi. National forums should be a chance to put guys like Matt Carpenter (2.5 WAR) and Josh Donaldson (2.6 WAR) on display. “Hey look, here are some guys you might not get a chance to see a lot who are playing great!” I like that aspect of it. The game will have Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, but I think it should also have the unknowns because it should be a game for die hard fans as well as casual fans who often use the word “boring” to describe baseball.
The Morning Edition (June 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Ubaldo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rays
- The Twins walk off on the Mariners
- Miller throws 7 scoreless, Wainwright goes the distance and allows one run as the Cards sweep the Giants in a DH
- Oakland literally walks off against the Sox
- Rockies walk off on the Dodgers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Marlins, expect strikeouts (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee goes against the Crew (130p Eastern)
- Jeremy Bonderman is back on an MLB mound against the Twins (2p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Darvish toes the slab against the Royals (3p Eastern)
- Buchholz and Kuroda in NY (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Does playing a different position really affect you at the plate?
You may have heard recently that Mike Trout is crushing at the plate again after his early season slump because he’s back in CF while Bourjos is on the DL. I’ve got to say, this is silly. Very. I could buy the argument if he was struggling when playing a more difficult position. For example, if you move from 1B to 3B and struggle at the plate because you have to work on your defense, that could make sense. But Trout was moving to an easier spot, why would that affect him? It wouldn’t. He’s a world class 21 year old athlete coming off a crazy good season. It’s nonsense to think he was affected at the plate by a position change that put him in a spot that was too easy. Ken Rosenthal has led the way on this topic and points to this split:
Trout 2013 as LF:.247/.327/.412
Trout 2013 as CF: .324/.400/.632
But that’s normal variation. Rosenthal and others just saw it and went for it as something to write about to gin up controversy. Here’s how I know:
Trout 2012 as LF: .326/.395/.645
Trout 2012 as CF: .329/.404/.542
If Trout was affected psychologically by playing out of position, why didn’t affect him last season? This is random noise in his production over the course of the season that happened to correlate with a teammates injury. Want better evidence?
Trout 2013 in Odd Numbered Games: .401 OBP
Trout 2013 in Even Numbered Games: .339 OBP
Look, Mike Trout is better during odd numbered games. The Angels should sit him today. Give me a break.
The Morning Edition (June 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland and the Rangers pile on the Royals
- Strasburg leaves with an oblique injury, but the Nats manage to win 3-2
- Jacob Turner goes 7 strong to beat the Mets
- Another rough outing for Hamels as the Phils fall to the Crew
- Cueto throws 8 scoreless to beat the Bucs
- Sabathia gets 10 K to beat the Sox
- Another good start by Garza beats the Dbacks
- Bartolo Colon CGSO
- Rays and Indians start late in Cleveland
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Miller try again in St. Louis (1p Eastern)
- Greinke travels to Coors 4p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Wainwright in game two (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Chris Davis, are you buying or selling?
I’ve remained cautiously skeptical of the Davis breakout, as one should. Entering 2013, he was a career .258/.310/.466 hitter, which is perfectly league average 100 wRC+. Career 6.5 BB%, 31.0 K%. Barely above replacement level. This year, he’s .356/.442/.749, good for 209 wRC+. Everyone wants to believe, but I can’t. He’s never done anything like this and I just don’t think he’s changed his approach enough to sustain star level performance. The power is real, but I don’t buy the average and walk rate. I don’t usually like to be the negative guy, but here we are. Valverde nights will do that to you.
The Morning Edition (May 31, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Freddy Garcia dominates the Nats
- Dillon Gee’s 12 K lead the Mets to a four game sweep of the Yankees
- Kazmir goes 7 strong behind a 7 run inning to beat the Reds
- Felix dominates the Padres as Ryan, Chavez, Franklin, and Morales all homer
- Travis Wood hits a grand slam and gets the win over the White Sox
- Wacha goes 7, gives up 2 hits in his MLB debut and gets a ND
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and CC faces off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Kluber go head to head in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner makes his 2013 debut (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Cain and Miller in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw at Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are the Cardinals wizards?
Yesterday, I wrote about teams who do a good job scoring from 2B on a single and today I’m going to look at a nearly opposite concept. Which teams make the most outs on the bases? Specifically, which teams make the most outs at 3B and home on the bases? I isolate those two categories because I think it makes for a good third base coach ranking. Third base coaches signal if a runner should advance to third or home on a play, but runners usually make the choice about second. So here, without much more ado, are the teams that have made the most outs on the bases at 3B and home entering Thursday (listed by raw number, but also shown with percentage of their total outs on the bases):
I haven’t spent enough time with these numbers to really know if it reflects the quality of the team’s third base coach, but I suspect it does. The coach can’t make his runners faster, but he can know which players are capable of taking the extra base and only telling them to advance. They don’t always listen, but a good third base coach should be able to make them. Seattle makes the highest percentage of their baserunning outs at 3B and home, so their coach could probably do more to help. Ideally, you would want to have all zeroes on this board, but the columns showing 3B and home are categories in which the coach plays a role and should therefore be judged. I’ll be thinking about this more and working on a way to further isolate this going forward. If you have suggestions, let me know.
The Morning Edition (May 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mets rally late to back a strong outing by Niese against the Yanks
- Samardzija drops a CGSO against the cross town Sox
- Aaron Harang also provides a CGSO against San Diego
- Skaggs is sharp at the front of a doubleheader
- Wainwright goes 8 to beat Shields and the Royals 6-3
- Gomez homers twice, but the Crew lose to the Twins
- The Astros walk off in 12 versus the Rockies
- Votto’s 8th inning homer leads the Reds over the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gausman takes his second turn, gets the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Yankees for the first time (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee comes to Boston (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale tries to take one from the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is the new schedule dulling interleague play?
Danny Knobler at CBS wrote yesterday how little buzz there is for this week’s big interleague matchups and I’m in total agreement. Interleague play, which is the scorn of my father’s generation, used to feel special for me. It would be fun to spend a couple weeks watching players from the NL that I usually didn’t get to watch up close. Now, those teams are sprinkled into the normal schedule after nearly 20 years of being confined to a fortnight or so in June. The novelty has really lost its luster. It feels strange and awkward and forced. It’s either time to add two more teams and dump interleague play or get rid of the pretense all together and play all 29 clubs.
The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
The Morning Edition (May 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Pagan hits a walk off inside the park homerun against the Rockies
- Peavy goes the distance as the Sox walk off against Miami
- Gomez homers twice but it’s not enough to beat the Bucs
- Moore is strong against the Yanks but the bullpen blows it in extras
- The Red Sox offense picks up a mediocre Lester against the Tribe
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza against Cueto in Cincinnati (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Strasburg duel in DC (130p Eastern)
- CC and Cobb at the Trop (130p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Padres (4p Eastern)
- SHELBY MILLER VERSUS CLAYTON KERSHAW (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which game most intrigues you today?
The answer to that is obviously Cardinals and Dodgers as it includes two very good starters who are pitching well as of late. Kershaw is a well established Appointment Television starter and Shelby Miller, I can tell you on good authority, is just one good start away from making that list. Kershaw enters the game at 5-2 through 73.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and 2.0 WAR, not to mention a dazzling track record while his opponent, Miller, is 5-3 through 57 innings with a 1.74 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 1.6 WAR to go along with his prospect pedigree. One likely expects a great pitchers’ duel from this one, but as the author learned just last week in the Verlander-Darvish Fiasco of 2013, great pitching matchups sometimes disappoint the viewer who wishes to see nothing but amazing starting pitching. The game not only features two of the authors favorite pitchers to watch, but it takes place after the Tigers game and will be announced by the golden pipes of Vin Scully. Enjoy, world.
New English D 