How Was The Game? (May 8, 2014)
A small correction.
Astros 6, Tigers 2
After days and days of punishing their opponets, the Tigers finally dropped a game, their first in ten tries. Drew Smyly (4 GS, 27.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) wasn’t bad, but he struck out two, walked three, and allowed three oruns in 5.1 innings and gave way to the bullpen too early. Reed allowed a run and Miller gave up two more before things were said and done, and the offense couldn’t put together a 7 run day. Castellanos drove in Jackson in the 2nd and Martinez went deep in the 4th, but Keuchel kept the Tigers off balance, sending them to the showers unhappy for the first time in what seemed like forever. The Tigers still took the series 3-1 and enter the weekend set 20-10 on the season. They’ll call on Justin Verlander (7 GS, 47 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.3 fWAR) to get things going against the Twins on Friday night.
The Moment: VMart stays hot, homering in the 4th.
How Was The Game? (May 7, 2014)
A little bit closer.
Tigers 3, Astros 2
After completely obliterating the Astros on Tuesday, the Tigers played a closer ballgame on Wednesday behind Rick Porcello (6 GS, 38 ⅔ IP, 3.49 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 0.9 fWAR). Cabrera put them on the board with a two run shot in the first inning and Victor added a solo shot for good measure later on. Porcello was quite good again, and cruised through the first six innings, only allowing a pair of runs as he began to tire in the 7th. He struck out five batters and generated 12 swinging strikes in exactly 100 pitches as he guided the Tigers to their 20th win in 29 tries and their 8th straight. They will go for the four game sweep and 9th straight win Thursday afternoon with Drew Smyly (3 GS, 22 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) on the bump.
The Moment: Cabrera barely clears the right field wall, and George Springer, in the first.
How Was The Game? (May 6, 2014)
A Ray of hope.
Tigers 11, Astros 4
If Robbie Ray (1 GS, 5 ⅓ IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.80 FIP, 0.3 fWAR) was scared during his first major league start, it didn’t show in the results as he allowed a single run in 5 ⅓ innings while giving up five hits and walk to go along with his five strikeouts. Ray had some trouble in the first and sixth, but ultimately performed well in his MLB debut, grabbing eight swinging strikes in 86 pitches. The bats did their part too, getting runs in many innings courtesy of many players. I had originally tried to identify all of them for you, but it became a very long sentence. Everyone had hits and stuff. The bullpen also managed to not ruin things completely, which is always a plus and gave the Tigers their 7th straight win and their 19th overall. They’ll try to lock up the series on Wednesday behind Rick Porcello (5 GS, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 0.7 fWAR).
The Moment: Robbie Ray exits to his first Comerica Park standing ovation.
The End Of The BABIP Infield
If you’ve watched baseball over the last four seasons, you know that the Tigers have had an excellent collection of starting pitchers. They get lots of strikeouts, don’t issues a ton of walks, and generally do things that lead to run prevention. Although, if you’re a slave to ERA, you’ve probably underrated them a bit. Everyone knows why. For years, the infield defense has been pretty rough. 2011 was a year of flux, with a mishmash of 2B and 3B, and 2012-2013 they used a corner infield tandem that could only be described as “good hitters.”
That’s okay, the Tigers prioritized strikeouts on the mound to soften the blow and prioritized hitting the ball very hard to justify the weak defenders. It seemed to be a self-aware strategy, but this year, after trading away Fielder and shifting Cabrera back to first, the defense is starting to fall into place. Castellanos is a significant upgrade over Cabrera, Cabrera is an upgrade over Fielder, Kinsler is probably a wash with Infante. Shortstop is confusing, because Iglesisas was awesome, but only played for two months and Peralta was good at certain things, not to mention Alex Gonzalez being around for a couple weeks this year.
This offseason, I suggested the new defense (with Iglesias) would be something like 10 to 60 runs better than last year. It’s too early to be terribly sure about that prediction (and let’s drop it down by about 5 to 10 runs), but it’s not too early to notice something very interesting. Right now, the infield has a collective UZR of about 3.5, meaning that the defense has saved three and a half runs more than the average infield. They’re at -2 DRS, but it should be noted that they’re +3 without Alex Gonzalez, which is relevant going forward.
By the popular metrics, they look much better than last year, when they were somewhere between 10 and 26 runs below average over a full season. But those runs above and below average metrics are sometimes a black box to the average fan. It’s hard to quantify “average” and a “run saved.” So let’s take a look at some very simple numbers that should tell a very simple story.
Below is a table of batting average on balls in play against (BABIP) for ground balls. The first column is league average. The second column is the Tigers.
| Year | League | Tigers |
| 2011 | 0.239 | 0.252 |
| 2012 | 0.236 | 0.246 |
| 2013 | 0.241 | 0.266 |
| 2014 | 0.242 | 0.231 |
Well, then. The Tigers were at least ten percentage points worse than average in each of the previous three years. This year, with several days of Alex Gonzalez, they’re still 11 percentage points better than average. It’s not a full season sample, but it’s close to 300 ground balls, which isn’t small potatoes.
I wouldn’t jump for joy and be certain that the Tigers are all of sudden going to be a great defensive team all season (and don’t even get me started on Torii Hunter’s extremely poor performance in RF), but it’s encouraging. Take a look at their starting pitcher ERA and FIP. The fact that they are outperforming their FIP this year after years of underperforming further supports the point.
| Year | ERA | FIP |
| 2011 | 4.10 | 3.94 |
| 2012 | 3.76 | 3.56 |
| 2013 | 3.44 | 3.12 |
| 2014 | 2.73 | 2.92 |
The days of Tigers starters being slayed by the Gods of BABIP may well be coming to an end. Which is all the more reason to make sure they don’t let Porcello reach free agency.
How Was The Game? (May 5, 2014)
Blue-eyed.
Tigers 2, Astros 0
Max Scherzer (7 GS, 47 IP, 1.72 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) gave the Tigers a superb effort in this one, although, it probably shouldn’t totally count given that it was the Astros whom he was victimizing. He went 8 innings, allowed three hits, no walks, and punched out nine. He only ran into trouble in his final inning, but pitched out of it with relative ease. He couldn’t manage his first career complete game (172 starts and counting), but the Tigers pushed across a run in the 7th on a Rajai Davis single and another on a VMart bomb in the 9th. It was nice, clean game if you enjoy pitchers’ duels. The win, their sixth in a row, lifts the Tigers to 18-9 on the season and further establishes their rotation as one of the best of all time, ending the day with all-time best ERA- and FIP- marks. It’s only May 5th, but it’s still worth noting. Robbie Ray (MLB Debut) will join the party on Tuesday, making his debut, trying to do his best to make us forget Doug Fister.
The Moment: Scherzer, Avila, and Castellanos cap off the 8th with a strike-em-out-throw-em-out.
How Was The Game? (May 4, 2014)
Easy breezy.
Tigers 9, Royals 4
The Royals had to fight a two front war on Sunday, and as many European dictators can attest, that’s almost always a losing battle. They had to deal with Justin Verlander (7 GS, 47 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.4 fWAR), who was on his game today and did not allow a hit until the 6th inning and the Tigers bats. Verlander walked four and allowed a three spot in the 7th, but that was after the Tigers had already put this game out of reach. The offense scored early and often as every member of the starting lineup had a hit, punctuated by home runs from Castellanos and Avila. Davis also had three hits and scored three runs and Victor Martinez was IBB’d twice for the second time in the series as the Tigers marched to a 9-3 victory, their 5th straight and 10th in their last 13 tries. They’ll head back to Detroit tonight ahead of a four game set with the Astros that starts Monday. Max Scherzer (6 GS, 39 IP, 2.08 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.2 fWAR) will be on the hill, so bring your strikeout hats to the park.
The Moment: Castellanos hits a no doubt shot in the 2nd.
How Was The Game? (May 3, 2014)
All Smyls.
Tigers 9, Royals 2
Drew Smyly (3 GS, 22 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) probably deserves top billing for his seven innings of shutout baseball in which he allowed just four baserunners, but also receiving votes was Nick Castellanos who drove in the first three runs, one on a sac fly and two on an RBI double. Cabrera did his part with some clutch baserunning (!) and Kinsler did his part to help the Royals with an impressive set of two TOOTBLANs. Hunter, Jackson, and Davis each made a fine play in the outfield and the bullpen managed to maintain the lead across the final six outs while the bats unloaded in the 9th to secure the win. The Tigers will go for the sweep on Sunday and their fifth straight win behind Justin Verlander (6 GS, 40 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.1 fWAR).
The Moment: Torii Hunter makes a diving catch that no one thought he would make.
Rick Porcello: Ace Rising
It’s possible that the title of this post is a touch hyperbolic. But then again, not really. It depends on your definition of ace. At this exact moment in time, Porcello isn’t one of the best dozen starters in the game, but he’s quietly turning himself into a top tier arm that could anchor most MLB rotations as a #2 starter, and could slide in as the best pitcher on quite a few teams. Yeah, maybe “ace” is a generous description, but Porcello is very good and will continue to be.
I’ve been beating this drum for years, so my apologies if I’ve already won you over, but it demands repeating. Porcello isn’t just a really good #5 starter anymore, he’s a bona fide good starting pitcher. He might even be arriving as a star.
Let’s cover some of the particulars. Porcello was good enough in his first two seasons (09-10), was a little better in (11-12), and then broke out in 2013. He’s consistently been worthy of an MLB job, but he went from solid backend guy to legitimate building block over the last couple of years. He went from a low strikeout, high ground ball guy to an average strikeout, high ground ball guy. The big leap in strikeouts in 2013 pushed Porcello forward. And he’s sustained that improvement in 2014 while also slicing his walk totals to Cliff Lee-ian levels. Take a look.
His FIP and xFIP have improved in each of his six seasons and his ERA has improved in each of the last five. This year, he’s also limiting the damage against lefties, cutting his wOBA against them by something like 70 points so far. Some of this is also about context. Porcello has thrown up (essentially) three straight 3.0 fWAR seasons (we always use FanGraphs WAR here, if you’re new) and is on pace for something more like 4.0+ WAR this year. Granted, we’re only about 15% of the way through the season and he probably won’t really only walk 3.3% of hitters, but the gains he made last year seem like they’re here to stay. Take a look at his swinging strikes per pitch over his career.
The case against Porcello, of which there are a number of advocates, fails to consider three important things. First, as hard as we try to change things, ERA still comes first for most people and Porcello has had inflated ERA’s in the past because he played in front of bad defenses. He allowed a lot of singles because no one could get to the ball. This year, in front of real defenders, he has a career best batting average against (.239), WHIP (1.00), and BABIP (.272). He’s not doing a whole lot differently, but his defense isn’t letting the ball get through as easily, which is helping keep that ERA in check.
Another thing to consider is that just because Porcello has been around forever, doesn’t mean he’s immune from normal expectations. Jose Fernandez like dominance at 21 is extremely rare. Porcello was big league ready at 20, but that doesn’t mean he was done developing at 20. He’s worked on things and improved over the course of his career, but he’s only 25. Justin Verlander’s age 25 season was his third full year. It will be Porcello’s sixth. Justin Verlander was a 3-4 WAR guy from ages 23-25. From ages 26-29, Verlander was a 6-8 WAR pitcher. I’m not saying Porcello is Verlander, but it’s not crazy to say that he’ll get better into his late 20s. Pitchers peak as they approach 30 and Porcello isn’t anywhere close.
Beyond that, Porcello is simply overshadowed. Tigers fans are spoiled. We think it’s normal to have Verlander AND Scherzer AND Sanchez AND (at one time) Fister. That’s not normal. Most teams have one guy who can get into that conversation. The Tigers have had 3-4 aces over each of the last four seasons. That’s ridiculous. Porcello isn’t as good as Scherzer, but you don’t have to be as good as Scherzer to be pretty freaking good.
I don’t think Porcello is going to turn into a Hall of Fame arm, but I do think there’s more improvement coming. Last year, he added a curveball to help him add strikeouts. This year, he found a way to make use of a slider that had previously been terrible. He’s making better use of his swing back fastball (see below) and he’s finding the right moments to dial up at blast 94-95 by batters.
People have been predicting the Porcello leap forever, but I hate to break it to them, the breakouts have been happening. He has taken many steps forward over the years but they were hidden by rough defense and the occasional blow up outing. This year, he’s locked in. Maybe it’s maturity or experience kicking in, maybe Avila and Jones figured something out, maybe he didn’t like Leyland’s secondhand smoke. I’m not totally sure.
For crying out loud, small sample size and such understood, he has the same K% as Verlander right now. For a variety of reasons, Porcello’s own fans haven’t appreciated the development. But when you examine the body of work, he’s actually on a great path. The Tigers have him for one more season (through 2015). For all the talk about Scherzer’s extension, Porcello is the guy they should be chasing. He’s not as good right now, but Porcello is going to get better and Scherzer is going to slowly decline as he ages. The best extensions are the ones for guys in the their 20s, not their 30s. You bet on the guy trending up and Porcello is definitely in that class.
It may be difficult to look at a guy who’s the fourth best starter on his team and think he’s terrific, but that’s only a problem because he happens to be on such an historic staff. If he was on the Twins or the Pirates or the Orioles or the Cubs he’d look like a star. Hopefully he’ll be cursed with this perception problem for his entire career and will stay in a Tigers uniform in Verlander’s shadow. He might not be an ace, but we’re at the point where one more little improvement could push him into that conversation.
How Was The Game? (May 2, 2014)
Superb.
Tigers 8, Royals 2
It was another banner night for Rick Porcello (5 GS, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 0.7 fWAR), who scattered four hits and two runs across seven excellent innings in which he struck out six Kansas City Royals. He allowed a run on a sac fly in the first and on a solo shot in the fourth, but set down the final 12 men he faced and was never in trouble. The bats came to his aid with two in the third, three in the fourth, and three in the seventh to make this a comfortable one for Rick and the bullpen. Martinez had a three hit day and Avila swatted a two run homer to right center in the effort. The win lifts the Tigers to 15-9 and will give them a chance to take the series Saturday behind Drew Smyly (2 GS, 15 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 0.2 fWAR).
The Moment: Avila delivers a two run blast in the fourth.
Tigers Sign Joel Hanrahan Because Of Course They Do
When you have a really good team with one really obvious weakness, it stands to reason that you’re going to attempt to solve that deficiency. On Friday, the Tigers made an attempt to do so, signing free agent reliever Joel Hanrahan to a one year deal worth $1 million (with $2 million in incentives).
Put it this way, in 2008 and 2009, he was a solid reliever. In 2010 and 2011, he was very good. In 2012, he was alright and in 2013 he was terrible in very limited playing time. He was a workhorse reliever with shades of greatness during his time with the Nationals and Pirates, but relievers have a shelf life and his elbow needed to be rebuilt last season.
The Tigers bullpen, however, can use all the help it can get. They have a 5.37 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 70.1 innings this season, and that includes useful appearances from Drew Smyly, who is actually a starting pitcher.
Given that the salary isn’t crazy, this is a perfectly fine move for the Tigers to make. They need bullpen help and he’s one of the few available players who belongs in an MLB bullpen. But it’s important to consider that reliever rarely maintain form and they especially don’t do so after major surgery. Hanrahan is probably going to make the bullpen better, but it’s not likely that he’s going to come in and be a shut down reliever who makes them a lot better. This is a smart move, just don’t expect him to be a savior.
One thing of note is that over the last couple of seasons he’s been better against lefties than righties. We probably don’t know enough to say he has a reverse platoon split, but we do know enough to say that he can handle hitters from both sides. Maybe it doesn’t knock Phil Coke out of town, but it’s plausible that it could.
He’s a high velocity, fastball/slider guy, but he’s coming off an injury and was only ever a great reliever for a short period of time. Hanrahan will help, but he won’t move the needle too much. For that to happen, the pitchers the Tigers have in the organization are simply going to have to figure things out. Luckily, the starters and bats are covering for them for now.
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