The Morning Edition (May 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Darvish K’s 14 Red Sox as the Rangers win in the bottom of the 9th
- The Marlins shell Halladay and get a clean outing from Slowey in a 14-2 win
- Garcia goes 8 and allows 1 run in front of a huge offensive outburst for the Cards
- Gordon’s walk-off single leads the Royals over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale and Shields duel in KC (2p Eastern)
- Buchholz welcomes the Twins to town in search of his 7th win (7p Eastern)
- Lefties Lee and Bumgarner face off on the left coast (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this the end for Doc?
When the season began, I left Roy Halladay off my list of The Nine best NL starters for 2013, but did so with great reservations. Sure Halladay was coming of a rough, injury plagued 2012, but the guy was easily the best and most consistent pitcher of the previous ten seasons, so I didn’t want to write him off too quickly. He opened the season with two rough outings against the Braves and Mets, but then got back on track for three against the Marlins, Cardinals, and Pirates before blowing a gasket against the Indians and Marlins. After the most recent start, he finally admitted to shoulder pain and will see Dr. Yocum this week. He’s likely headed for the DL and will likely never be the brilliant ace he once was. From 2002-2011, Halladay was the best pitcher in the sport and it wasn’t close. Not even a little bit. His 60.9 WAR during the time frame was first ahead of Sabathia by 9.6 WAR despite making 19 fewer starts. Only one starter with more than 1000 IP in the same time frame had a lower ERA: Johan Santana and he threw 400 fewer innings. As of now, he’s 33rd all time in pitcher WAR. He doesn’t have some of the counting stats one likes to see to make the Hall of Fame, but his peak is extremely solid. He has my vote if he never throws another pitch, and it’s not entirely certain that he ever will.
How Was The Game? (May 1, 2013)
It had to end sometime.
Twins 6, Tigers 2
Despite a 40+ pitch first inning in which he allowed 2 runs and a 2nd inning in which he allowed another, Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 39.2 IP, 11.34 K/9, 1.82 ERA, 1.33 FIP, 2.0 WAR) settled in and turned in a solid pitching performance against the Twins allowing just 7 baserunners and 3 runs to go with his 9 strikeouts over 6 innings. Unfortunately, just as the Tigers were rallying after a slow start in the bottom of the 6th, the bullpen erased the progress as Rondon allowed 2 in the 7th and Downs allowed 1 in the 8th to extend the deficit to four runs. With Dotel and Coke on the DL and Smyly and Alburquerque getting the day off, the Tigers didn’t have a lot of options in the ‘pen, but it’s likely that Rondon will head back to Toledo after today’s outing in which he couldn’t find the plate or get anyone to miss his fastball, especially considering how easily Ortega handled the Twins in the 9th. The Tigers still won the series and finish the homestand 6-2 and 15-11 overall as they hop on a plane for Houston to start a four game set on Thursday behind Rick Porcello (1-2, 19.1 IP, 8.84 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 0.0 WAR).
The Moment: Sanchez retires the last 11 batters he faces to get through 6 despite a 41 pitch first inning.
How Was The Game? (April 30, 2013)
A blast.
Tigers 6, Twins 1
Sorry for the pun, but the Tigers won with more homeruns. It was Cabrera, then Avila, then Price. And Hunter had a regular RBI in there too. They hammered Vance Worley across 4.2 innings and sent him to the showers in line for a loss. Verlander had a rocky 2nd inning, but limited the damage to one run and ended the night with 8 K’s, 1 walk, and 5 hits across 7 innings. His velocity was up from earlier in the month and his thumb didn’t seem to bother him. He capped off his best April to date with his 3rd win of the season (3-2, 39.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 1.6 WAR) and you can come back tomorrow at 12:30pm to see just how much better he performed this April than he had in the past. This win made it 5 in a row for the Tigers and 6 of their last 7 to move to 15-10 on the season with a chance to sweep the Twins behind Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 33.2 IP, 10.96 K/9, 1.34 ERA, 1.36 FIP, 1.7 WAR) tomorrow at 1pm. It’s possible we may see some strikeouts.
The Moment: Prince puts it out of reach with a line drive homerun in the 5th.
How Was The Game? (April 29, 2013)
Tigers’ baseball.
Tigers 4, Twins 3
The formula for Tigers’ victories this year is relatively simple: strike the other team out and hit for power. That’s just happens to be what they did on Monday against the Twins. Scherzer provided 7.1 innings of 3 run baseball and struck out 10 while allowing 6 hits and no walks to improve to 3-0 on the season (13.21 K/9, 4.02 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 1.4 WAR). Dirks homered in the 3rd and Prince matched him with a 3 run shot of his own in the 6th to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead that would hold up for good. The ‘pen backed Scherzer with 1.2 innings of scoreless relief from Smyly (who by the way, is killing it so far this season: 10.06 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 1.47 FIP, 0.6 WAR in 17 innings) and Benoit. They played to their strengths and won their 4th straight game and 5th in their last 6 tries to improve to 14-10 on the season. They’ll try to take the series tomorrow behind the seemingly forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (2-2, 32.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 1.2 WAR).
The Moment: Prince homers into the visiting bullpen to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead in the 6th.
The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
- Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
- Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1
What I’m Watching Today:
- Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
- Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?
The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.
The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
- Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
- Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
- Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
- Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
- Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?
So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.
The Morning Edition (April 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zach Greinke breaks his collarbone after a Carlos Quentin charges the mound after being hit by a pitch
- The Giants come back from being down 5-0 to beat the Cubs at Wrigley 7-6
- Felix gives up 10 hits enroute to a loss against the Rangers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jon Niese and the Mets meet old division foe Vance Worley at Target Field (8p Eastern)
- The Blue Jays face the Royals in a battle of AL makeovers (8p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for appointment viewing against the Dbacks (940p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish faces the struggling Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Clayton Kershaw making a bid to unseat Verlander as baseball’s best starter?
Thursday brought us an abbreviated MLB schedule with just eight games (one of which was rained out) and resulted in MLB Network filling unaccounted for air time with a rerun of Intentional Talk hosted by Chris Rose and Kevin Millar. This leads me to my only idle musing for the day: how good does a network have to be for IT to be its worst program? That’s insane. It’s a solid show, but it’s their worst show. MLB Now, MLB Tonight, Quick Pitch, Clubhouse Confidential, The Rundown, etc are all the best in their class as far as sports programming goes. It’s no wonder they win so many Emmys.
I haven’t heard the timeline on the Greinke injury, but it’s a blow to the Dodgers who were counting on him to pitch at ace levels this season. It will probably only cost them a couple games in the standings in total due to the time he misses, but I would be concerned about how the injury might affect his delivery when he returns give its location. We should know more later today that will help clear up those questions.
Finally, 42 opens today nationwide. I’m looking forward to seeing Jackie Robinson immortalized further on the silver screen and am excited for young and casual fans to get a glimpse into one of the great baseball players of all time, who just happens to double as one of the most pivotal figures of the 20th century. But no pressure on the actors. I plan to review the film sometime in the next week or two.
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
How Was The Game? (April 4, 2013)
Kind of a meltdown.
Twins 8, Tigers 2
At different points this afternoon, different storylines sought to grab the headline. When the game began, I was expecting to write about how well Rick Porcello performed with his new curveball (5.2IP, 3ER, 2BB, 2K), but that faded quickly as the innings wore on. Porcello threw some encouraging curveballs and went deeper into the game than Verlander or Sanchez had, but was relatively average and gave up a couple of gopherballs to Willingham and Plouffe. The Tigers finally looked poised to breakout after the first two men reached in the 7th inning, but a strikeout by Hunter, a walk to Cabrera, a strikeout by Fielder, and a popout by Martinez dashed those hopes. Dirks led off the following inning with a four pitch walk, but was stranded by Peralta and Avila. The wheels came off in the Twins 5 run 8th and the Tigers went quietly in the 9th.
It wasn’t a great showing by the team, particularly the offense. Porcello pitched well enough to beat the Twins and the offense came up short in numerous situations that could have changed the dynamics heading into the disastrous bottom of the 8th. Entering the 9th inning on Wednesday, the Tigers were three outs away from taking the series and setting up a sweep, but over the next ten innings of baseball they let that slip away and will leave the Twin Cities with a 1-2 record on the young season. Certainly the Tigers’ bats will wake up as the season hurtles forward, but you never like to lose 2 out of 3 to an inferior team, even if it was on the road and in the cold.
The Tigers will send Doug Fister to the hill tomorrow against Ivan Nova and the Yankees for the home opener at Comerica Park. If you’re heading downtown tomorrow, enjoy it for me. It will be the first Opening Day since I moved to North Carolina and the idea of not being there is a touch depressing.
Let this be your reminder that it’s a long season and anything can happen on any given day. The Tigers will be fine and now isn’t even close to the time for panicking. Unless you read the news about Valverde. In which case, you might be feeling some tightness in your chest. That’s normal and to be expected. Try to breath.
The Moment: Fielder K’s down by one with the bases loaded and one out in the 7th
2013 Season Preview: American League Central
While certain national baseball writers seem to think Kansas City and Cleveland adding five or six wins to their 2012 totals will somehow help them unseat a Tigers team that added four or five wins of their own this offseason, the overwhelming evidence points to a third straight Tigers division title.
Things can go wrong, but the Tigers are far and away the safest bet to win any division in baseball again this season.
Here’s how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Minnesota Twins (65-97, 27)
The Twins are looking down the road at a crop of exciting position prospects who are a few years away. They traded away both of their center fielders and signed scrap heap pitching. The plan is to wait it out, and that’s what they are doing. The Twins might not be baseball’s worst team, but on paper, they are certainly the worst in the AL Central.
4. Cleveland Indians (71-91, 26)
To be clear, I locked in these rankings and projections days before the Indians signed Michael Bourn, so this reflects a lower opinion of the Indians that is appropriate. The numbers reflect my views in the days before Spring Training, so for consistency’s sake, I’ll stand by them. The Indians added Bourn, Swisher, Stubbs, and Reynolds on offense and Myers, Bauer, and Dice-K in the rotation this offseason and should be better in 2013 for it. I kind of like their positions players and would like them more if they had one elite bat to put in the middle. But the pitching just can’t cut it. They have plenty of guys I like at the back end of a rotation, but no one I like for the top in 2013.
3. Kansas City Royals (76-86, 23)
Listen, the Royals didn’t get that much better. They added Ervin Santana who was terrible last year. They added Jeremy Guthrie who is okay. They added Wade Davis who could be solid and James Shields who is very good. At most, they added ten wins to their 2012 total. At most. That’s if Santana and Guthrie and Davis all contribute like legitimate major leaguers and if they all stay healthy. Don’t get me wrong, Hosmer should be better and Perez should hopefully stay healthy, but man is that a lot of qualifications. The Royals are no one’s whipping boy anymore, but let’s cool it with the excitement from national writers who somehow think adding James Shields changes everything. Guys, Wil Myers would have been just as big an upgrade over Jeff Francoeur.
2. Chicago White Sox (83-79, 16)
The White Sox didn’t do much to improve upon the 2012 roster and that team was the picture of average. So they shall be again. They over performed my expectations last year because I bet on certain players to continue washing up instead of returning to form. This team is a 78-85 win team at its finest and can certainly hang around if the Tigers let them.
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68, 2)
The Tigers return the same team that made it to the World Series in 2012 after underperforming all season, but they also add Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, and full seasons of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They do so without losing anything of substance. If the Tigers remain as healthy as their opponents, they should win the division easily in 2013. Their pitching staff is head and shoulders above the Twins, Royals, and Indians while remaining significantly better than the White Sox and are serious contenders for the title of baseball’s best staff. Certainly things can go wrong, but they would have to go a lot more wrong for the Tigers than for every other team for this to be much of a race.
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander (snooze)
AL Central MVP: Justin Verlander
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Eric Hosmer
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: The Tigers won’t stumble out of the gate or down the stretch and will make it easy on their fans.
Boldest of the Bold: Joe Mauer will find his power again and hit 20 HRs.
New English D 