2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 30-21
Spring Training begins this week in Florida and Arizona as all thirty MLB teams do their best to prepare themselves for another season. That preparation will be critical to their respective successes and failures, but before anyone gets hurt or anyone has a breakout season, this is how SABR Toothed Tigers thinks the league stacks up.
30. Houston Astros
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the Astros other than that they are a very bad team. The new front office has worked well over the last year to restock the farm system and get them on a path to rebuilding but that has come at the expense of the clubs won-loss record for 2013. The Opening Day payroll will be south of $30 million and the Astros could easily lose another 100 games. The future looks much better for the Astros, but the now is just terrible.
29. Miami Marlins
Entering the 2012 season the Marlins had a new stadium and a revamped club. The ownership committed to higher payrolls and more competitive clubs, but after a rocky start to the season, the Marlins began selling off pieces and completed the process with a full on fire sale in the offseason. Almost nothing remains. The Marlins ownership didn’t like the less than stellar attendance and they decided they weren’t going to pay for a team that didn’t sell tickets. The 2013 Marlins are Giancarlo Stanton and players who are either too young to make any money or two broken to get other offers.
28. Colorado Rockies
Last season was a disaster for the Rockies. They lost Tulowitzki for most of the season and their pitching staff was terrible. A healthy Tulo will help the team and the offense should be okay, but the pitching staff isn’t much of anything. They didn’t do anything to improve the club during the offseason and the return of Tulowitzki can only do so much. With other teams in the NL West adding to their arsenals, the Rockies won’t find room to improve.
27. Minnesota Twins
The Twins pursued two offseason strategies this winter. First, they traded all of their centerfielders. Span to the Nationals and Revere to the Phillies. Second, they signed every pitcher they could find that is coming off an injury hoping for the best. On the face of it, those moves won’t do much for the 2013 team, which could easily lose 95 or more games, but these moves have helped stock an already interesting farm system. The Twins are a couple years away from getting back into things, but they have enough pieces that we shouldn’t expect them to be terrible in an unwatchable sort of way.
26. Cleveland Indians
The Tribe added Nick Swisher and others in free agency and picked up Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer via trade during the offseason to plug up holes in their team, but their main issue is starting pitching and they didn’t do enough to turn themselves into contenders. The Indians have some exciting young position players, but when you’re counting on Swisher to be your top offensive player you’re probably too short on offense and when Justin Masterson is your ace, you’re definitely short on pitching. Editors Note: This ranking was determined as of Saturday Feb. 9th, prior to the beginning of Spring Training. The signing of Michael Bourn is not reflected here.
25. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are moving in the right direction with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer now at the helm and I like their starting pitching for 2013 and beyond. The offense isn’t much to look at and the bullpen isn’t really anything. If you’re hoping for an end to the curse, you should probably shift your hopes until next season.
24. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have Felix Hernandez and a lot of young starting pitching coming, but 2013 won’t be their year. They tried to improve their lineup with a bunch of broken pieces, but it’s going to be a rough offensive season even with shorter fences at Safeco. This is a team that can prevent runs but not one that can score them.
23. Kansas City Royals
The Royals place on this list might seem low, but there are still a lot of problems with this team despite adding James Shields. They probably added a few wins with pitching upgrades, but the offense didn’t improve much other than counting on bounce back seasons. The Royals will probably have more wins than other teams ahead of them on this list, but that will be a function of playing two teams on this list ranked 26th or lower 19 times each. The Royals probably won’t be embarrassing, but I don’t think they’ll be good either.
22. San Diego Padres
The Padres have some good young players in their system and the fences are coming in at Petco Park, but they didn’t do much to improve their team. In a tough division, it’s hard to see them being much better than they were in 2012 especially with their starting catcher spending 50 games on suspension for PED use.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates
In my 2012 Season in Review series I told you I thought the Pirates would finally break the under .500 curse and turn into a winning team for the first time in two decades, but I’ve been talking myself out of it ever since. I think they might still win over 81 games this year, but I think that will be a function of luck and timing rather than true talent. I think the Pirates are the 21st best MLB team, but they might still finish with a record above average.
Come back tomorrow and Thursday for 2013 Preseason Power Rankings 20-11 and 10-1.ets.
2012 Season in Review: American League Central
The AL Central produced the MVP, pennant winner, and Cy Young runner up in 2012, but other than that, it wasn’t the most exciting year for baseball’s most made fun of division. Sure the Tigers boast a lot of stars and Phil Humber threw a perfect game, but that didn’t earn them a lot of respect.
Here’s how the final standings shook out:
And this is how it played out over time:
Followed by my 2013 projections:
And a final look at my 2012 grades:
AL Central MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander
2012 Season in Review: Minnesota Twins
66-96, 5th in the AL Central
It was another dark year for the Minnesota Twins after spending much of the 2000s as the cost effective kings of the AL Central. They nearly missed losing 100 games and could easily be considered the worst team in the American League.
Joe Mauer did his part (5.0 WAR) and players like Josh Willingham (3.9), Denard Span (3.9), Ben Revere (3.4), and Jamey Carroll (2.4) helped along the way. The rest of the lineup was uninspiring, but serviceable for a non-contender.
But good gracious, the pitching was awful. Scott Diamond’s 2.6 was the only WAR above 1.3 for the entire staff. He was also the only pitcher to throw more than 110 innings. By WAR and FIP they were the worst collective staff in all of baseball. Starters and relievers alike were simply terrible.
The Twins are working on a makeover as they traded Span and Revere for prospects and have signed just about every scrap heap innings eater they can find to serve as stopgaps for 2013. They have some interesting position players coming through the system, but the pitching isn’t terribly exciting.
They should have a bit more reliability in the rotation in 2013 with Worley and his compatriots, but I can’t say they’ll be much better. This is a long road for the Twins to travel back to contention.
With the Tigers improving this offseason and the Royals and Indians making modest upgrades in the short term, it seems unlikely that the Twins will improve upon their 2012 showing.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 65-97
Twins Trade Their Remaining Centerfielder
Last week the Twins traded Denard Span to the Nationals because they had Ben Revere to play centerfield. Today, they traded Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and a pitching prospect because they had, um, Aaron Hicks to play centerfield?
They went from a team with many centerfielders to a team with less than one centerfielder. I can’t really fault the strategy given that they are probably a few years away from contention and that they wanted to maximize the return for guys who they don’t expect to be pieces of that success.
But I do have to wonder about the timing. Why wouldn’t they wait for Bourn, Hamilton, and Swisher to clear the market? Maybe that takes certain teams out of play for their guys, but wouldn’t it make the remaining teams more desperate? The Twins didn’t have to move Span and Revere for cost reasons or time horizons, so they could easily have waited this one out.
I also have to say the returns haven’t been spectacular either. Meyer, Worley, and Trevor May. I’m not sure those three guys dramatically improve their future success. In a best case scenario based on the scouting I’ve read on the two prospects, we’re looking at two #2s and a #3/4 guy with solid club control. That’s a good return, but that’s the ceiling. Prospect evaluation is full of uncertainty and those #2s could easily turn into bullpen pieces, swingmen, or nothing.
The Twins had a plethora of centerfielders and traded them all to bulk up their pitching depth. I think it needs to be said that two major league centerfielders are probably more valuable than one proven mid to lower rotation guy and two respectable ceiling prospects given that the centerfielders were on team friendly deals.
Hard to like this for the Twins in my book, which means as a Tigers fan, I love it. Grade: C
Lots of Baseball Happens: Signings, Extensions, and Trades
In the most cliché move yet this offseason, the hot stove is heating up as baseball’s GMs decided to start making moves in the week before the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Because my day job doesn’t allow me to spend the 12 hours a day I would like to writing about baseball, I’m going to have to get you caught up at lightning speed.
Here are the big moves from this week and my brief take on each:
Angels sign RP Ryan Madson, 1 year, $6 million plus incentives
Excellent move by the Angels who followed up by dumping Jordon Walden on the Braves for Tommy Hanson. Madson was a solid reliever for the Phillies for several years before signing a 1 year deal with the Reds last season. He got injured before the season and never threw a pitch, so it’s hard to judge exactly how healthy he may be. The Angels took that risk and added Madson to their bullpen on a one year deal during and offseason that has seen two meh relievers (League and Broxton) get three year contracts. Grade: A
Braves sign OF BJ Upton , 5 years, $75 million
The Braves needed to resign or replace Michael Bourn and this will do the trick. I have my doubts about Upton going forward and think he’s a guy who peaked early and will never live up to his skills. That said, he’s been a useful big leaguer with flashes of star power in the past and the Braves are only signing him through his age 32 season. I don’t love this deal, but it’s not a huge risk given how big contracts are getting. I think Upton has a couple more $15 million seasons in him, I’m just not sure how many and when they’ll come. I’m glad my team isn’t taking this risk, but I’m guessing the Braves won’t regret this and if they do, it won’t be a huge regret. Grade: B-
Nationals acquire Denard Span from the Twins for P Alex Meyer
The Tigers fan in me is thrilled Span is leaving the AL Central. The analyst in me thinks the Nationals made a shrewd move here. A cost controlled Span for three more seasons will do wonders between Harper and Werth and can provide a nice boost at the top of the order in a much cheaper way than the free agent options. Meyer is an interesting prospect, but most of the people I’ve talked to or read seem to think he’s a risky-high upside type. Span fills a hole in the Nats outfield and they traded from pitching depth, and they have a lot of that. The Twins have Ben Revere to fill the Span void and they do need a lot of pitching. I like this deal for them except that I think they probably could have gotten more in a deal for Span. Grade (Nats): A, Grade (Twins): C+
Pirates sign Russell Martin, 2 years, $17 million
The Pirates got something they needed. Offense. Martin hits for power and walks at a decent rate while provide some value on defense through solid pitching framing and debatable throwing skills. He’s a good fit for the Pirates and it’s hard to call $8.5 million for a free agent who can easily get to 2.0 WAR an overpay. Can’t complain if I’m a Bucs fan, but I really just want to point out that the Pirates outbid the Yankees for a player. The Pirates…outbid…the Yankees. With money. Grade: B
Mets extend David Wright, 7 years, $122 million
This extension starts after 2013 and carries Wright into his age 37 season. I was preparing a “What Should the Mets Pay Wright” piece when the news broke of this extension and I have to say, the Mets are getting a really solid yearly price for the cost of guaranteeing a lot of years. This is similar to the Longoria deal in a lot of ways except Longoria signed his four years ahead of free agency and Wright signed his one year ahead. Wright proved, through signing this deal, that he is committed to winning in New York and he’ll likely be a Met for life. Assuming he stays healthy, it’s hard for me to see a way in which this deal becomes a mess. It might not payoff, but it should mostly pay off. Grade: B+
The Winter Meetings are coming next week and a lot more action should be coming. Check back with STT for complete coverage.
122 days until Opening Day.
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