How Was The Game? (April 7, 2013)
Pretty quiet at the dish.
Yankees 7, Tigers 0
On this Verlander Sunday, the Tigers looked poised to sweep the Yankees, but came up short. Verlander looked a bit off his game giving up 3 runs in the 2nd but settled in and shut down the Yankees offense for the remainder of his 7 1/3 innings and had a much better day than his College of Aces compatriots Dickey, Price, Hamles, and Strasburg. Coke came on in relief in the 8th and surrendered two runs of his own and Dotel did the same in the 9th, but the story of the day was CC Sabathia quieting the Tigers’ bats. Sabathia looked good today after a less than stellar season debut against the Red Sox on Monday and kept the Tigers off the board for 7 innings. The Yankees bullpen did the rest despite decent scoring chances for the Tigers in the 8th against Robertson and in the 9th against Rivera. Matt Tuiasosopo made his first start as a Tiger and went 2-3 with a walk to endear himself to the faithful, but the Tigers were unable to capitalize on any of their chances. After taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees the Tigers head into the second week of the season 3-3 with Anibal Sanchez looking to handle the Blue Jays on Tuesday in Detroit. The Jays will send Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson to the hill in the three game series.
The Moment: Brayan Pena got his first hit as a Tiger. It was an infield single.
2013 Detroit Tigers Season Preview
Well folks, the time has come. Less than two weeks from now, the Tigers will be at Target Field taking on the Twins and getting the 2013 season under way. It has seemed like a quiet offseason for the defending AL champs, but they actually made some big moves by signing Torii Hunter to a two year deal and re-upping with Anibal Sanchez for five seasons.
The Tigers have two consecutive division titles under their belts and a pennant flying this season for their work thwarting the rest of the AL in 2012. With essentially the entire team coming back in addition to the aforementioned additions and a healthy Victor Martinez, all signs point to another big season for the Tigers. Things can go wrong, but the expectation surely is that the Tigers will repeat as AL Central champs.
You can read my AL Central preview here, my preseason power rankings here, and my standings prediction here, all of which point to my agreement with the conventional wisdom about the Tigers chances. I think they’re going to be very good and a force with which to be reckoned. Here’s why.
The Starting Pitching
The Tigers have six starters who belong in a major league rotation. The staff is led by Justin Verlander, who is the best pitcher in the game according to most, and backed up by three pitchers who can make a strong claim to #2 starter status: Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Those potential number twos are the strength of the rotation because it makes them extremely deep. It would surprise no one if any of those pitchers accomplished something close to a 4 WAR season (they’ve all done it before), and it would be incredible if they all managed to do it.
Think about this, Verlander is the oldest member of the rotation. The Tigers have three pitchers in their primes with a history of strong performance behind the game’s best starter. That’s pretty good.
And then there are Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly. Both of which deserve to start this season. I wrote here that I’d go with Porcello and he is making his case this Spring with an excellent strikeout to walk ratio and a much better breaking ball. To his credit, Smyly isn’t struggling either. It’s a good problem to have.
I would argue the Tigers have the best rotation in baseball and I can’t make a case for them being any worse than third entering the season. In the next two weeks, the Tigers are going to trade, send to the pen, or demote a pitcher capable of a 2-3 win season. That should be all you need to know.
The Lineup
At this point, it just sounds like I’m naming parts of a baseball team, but the lineup is very good. Austin Jackson was a top five AL outfielder last season and is joined by fellow top ten AL outfielder Torii Hunter at the top of the lineup. If that wasn’t enough, MVP and elite hitter Miguel Cabrera follows them, sitting ahead of Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez.
If there is a better first five hitters in the sport, I haven’t found them. Behind that force lurks the underrated Andy Dirks, the on-base machine Alex Avila, and the poised for a bounce back Jhonny Peralta. Omar Infante will hit ninth and hopefully prevent anyone whining about second base this season.
The Tigers are blessed with exceptional depth on the bench, but the overall quality of the lineup is impressive. They can’t replace many of their players, but they should be able to weather one serious injury at a time without much problem. Every player in the Tigers lineup has either been an All-Star or had an All-Star type season very recently with the exception of Dirks. The infield defense is sub par, but with a much improved outfield defense and strikeout inclined starters, they can probably outslug any problems.
Experience
On occasion, pundits overrate the value of experience over talent, but in the Tigers case, it should help. The Tigers have been to the playoffs in consecutive seasons with a very similar roster and the experience of having worked through long seasons with trials and tribulations should play to their advantage. The Tigers players should be well conditioned for October baseball after seeing what it takes to keep themselves in top condition over the last two seasons deep into the Fall.
The Leadership
Again, this is a quality that is somewhat controversial, but the Tigers have a lot of personalities in their clubhouse that will nurture a winning environment. Losing streaks will be handled appropriately and there shouldn’t be any infighting or problems. Victor Martinez’s presence will be welcomed back this season along with the addition of Hunter and the ever-present Jim Leyland, whom everyone seems to adore. Experience and leadership are hard to measure, but if they matter at all, they should work in the Tigers favor.
The Bullpen, Even the Bullpen
I wrote at length recently about why Rondon will succeed as the closer and why it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t. Benoit, Dotel, Coke, Downs, Below, Putkonen, and others are all available out of the pen. The Tigers don’t have anyone like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, but they have many, many pitchers who could be solid, reliable relievers. The position is volatile and unpredictable, but the Tigers are well stocked with potential arms in the pen. They won’t lead the league in bullpen-ness, but they won’t be bad.
—-
I don’t think it is too bold to say that the Tigers are among the best teams, on paper, entering the 2013 season. I would argue they are the second best team, behind Washington. Things can always go wrong, but they go wrong for every team. I always hedge and say that so long as the Tigers are no less unfortunate than their competitors, they should win the division quite easily.
The Royals and Indians are better and the White Sox aren’t pushovers, but the Tigers are the class of the Central. With upheaval in the East and a strong West, the road to another pennant will be trying, but it is certainly within the Tigers’ grasp.
With elite level star power in Verlander, Cabrera, Fielder, and others, it’s hard not to dream on the Tigers 2013 potential. They have it all, including a chip on their shoulders after a poor showing in the Fall Classic.
For the Tigers, this could be the year that the roar is officially restored.
The Nine Best American League Starting Pitchers for 2013
The previous eight weekends have featured lists of The Nine best players at each of the main field positions for the 2013 MLB season. You can access these lists here all season long and I will provide status reports of these lists as we proceed through 2013.
There will be no list for relief pitchers because there are so many of them and their range of performance is so small that making a list isn’t very interesting. There will also be no DH list because there just aren’t enough full time DHs to make it worthwhile. Only 15 teams can have a DH and some of them employ platoons. Picking 9 DHs out of like 13 guys seems silly.
But starting pitching is a place of great interest and I struggled to decide how to break it down. With more than 150 players receiving starts in a given season on the hill versus a number closer to 30 for the field positions, I’ve decided to break it in half. I thought about lefties and righties, but decided American League and National League would be more fun.
Here, without more nonsense, are The Nine best American League starting pitchers for 2013 according to SABR Toothed Tigers. The list is difficult to make because there are many excellent candidates, so as always, don’t get too worked up about it.
9. Max Scherzer (Tigers)
Scherzer will turn 29 during the upcoming season, which will be the fifth full one of his career. The strikeouts shot up last season and he kept his walk rate below 3.00 per 9 for a second straight season. He had some arm issues late in the season, but pitched well enough in the playoffs to make us think the winter off was enough to reset his aching body. He’s a flyball and strikeout pitcher, which will work well with the Tigers defense and last season was his most complete effort in the sense that he didn’t go through long stretches of poor performance. I still wonder if he can repeat his delivery and keep his awkward mechanics in line, but if he can continue on the path he started last year, he has a shot to be a force in the AL.
8. R.A. Dickey (Blue Jays)
Dickey is coming off two and a half very good seasons and an NL Cy Young. We can’t worry too much about his age given his knuckleballing ways, but we should worry that he’s moving to a less pitchers’ friendly Rogers Centre and slightly better AL East. Dickey won’t do quite as well under those conditions, but we can control for those context type factors. I don’t think he’ll be a Cy Young again, but his ability to make the ball dance should be enough to keep him on this list for another season.
7. C.C. Sabathia (Yankees)
Sabathia showed signs of aging in 2012 for the first time after 11 above average to great seasons leading up to it. He’s still a workhorse with great control and hasn’t had an ERA above 3.38 since 2005, with much of that time spend in the tough AL East. CC is probably making his final appearance on this list for his career, but he will remain one of the best pitchers in the AL for 2013.
6. Doug Fister (Tigers)
Fister had a higher WAR than all but 12 AL pitchers last season, despite only making 26 starts due to a nagging oblique injury during the first half of the season. Had he pitched at the same rate over 34 starts as he did over 26, he would have easily been a top nine pitcher last season. There is no reason to think anything but injuries would stand in his way. The strikeout rate is on the way up and his control has been excellent in a Tigers uniform. He’s only 29 and could easily be poised for another fine season. He also happens to be my favorite pitcher to watch. His mix of modesty and control with great fastball movement makes for excellent viewing. He’s also super tall. That’s fun too.
5. David Price (Rays)
The reigning Cy Young winner in the AL is fifth on this list, not because I don’t like him, but because I like his opponents more. Price has three straight 4.0+WAR seasons and is right in the middle of his prime. All signs point to another great year from Price, but I think he’ll be just shy of Cy Young conversation in 2013.
4. Matt Moore (Rays)
So when I previewed the AL East, I said Moore would be the Cy Young of the division. In doing so, I also decided he would be a better pitcher than his teammate David Price. Perhaps that was foolish, but I’m bullish on Moore and think people overlook him. He was a top three prospect entering last season and had made an excellent late season cameo in 2011. A year of control issues later, and everyone seems to be looking past him. I’m not. Moore is not yet 24 and has a lot of developing left to do. He throws gas from the left side with two solid offspeed pitches. He was a solid #3 starter in his first big league season. I don’t see any reason to think he can’t make the leap to #1 a year after he was the best prospect in the league.
3. Yu Darvish (Rangers)
Darvish tied Price last season for third in the AL in WAR and should still be on his way up. The strikeout rate was superb and if he can limit the walks at all, he’ll be an elite starter. After a year in the states, he should be poised for a better season because he won’t be adjusting to life in America and can focus solely on pitching. The stuff is great and his first year of results matched that.
2. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Felix is about to turn 27 and already has 38.3 career WAR and four straight 230 IP + seasons. The velocity ticking down is the only thing to worry about with the game’s richest pitcher, but he’s shown the ability to be effective at all speeds and is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro. He’s an ace and a stud and any word you can think of to describe a top pitcher. The only thing he isn’t is number one on this list.
A photo from directly above the author’s desk.
1. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
I’m not sure what needs to be said about Verlander. His first three seasons were very good and his last four have been phenomenal. He has a ROY, Cy Young, MVP, and has never missed a start in seven seasons. He’s entering his age thirty season as the game’s best and more reliable starting pitching. With four above average to elite pitches, the two time no-hitter thrower is every hitter’s worst nightmare.
How would you rank the AL’s arms? Sound off. Check back next weekend for the NL list.
2012 Awards Series: AL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Justin Verlander (RHP- Detroit Tigers)
Verlander entered 2012 in the prime of his career as the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP while looking to cement his place as baseball’s best starting pitcher.
And the award goes to…
Verlander. Three AL pitchers are in the discussion for this honor, but Verlander comes out on top and deserves to win his second consecutive Cy Young.
He threw 238.1 innings, posted a 9.03 K/9 along with his 2.27 BB/9, and ended the season with a 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP. All of this comes together in a 6.8 WAR which is the best mark in the AL and in all of baseball in 2012.
But I don’t want WAR to be the end of the discussion because it does a disservice to the other candidates worthy of mention, David Price and Felix Hernandez.
Both Price and Hernandez had great seasons and will finish a strong 2nd and 3rd on my ballot, but Verlander was better. At this point in history, we’re smart enough not to look a pitcher’s W/L record as a measure of value. You can win a lot of games if you aren’t that good and you can lose a bunch of games if you’re great depending on how your team performs around you. Cases in point this year are Phil Hughes’ 16 wins and Cliff Lee’s 6 wins.
Let’s start with ERA. Verlander trailed only Price in this season with a 2.64 ERA to Price’s 2.56. That’s a very small margin, but you have to lean in Verlander’s direction when you consider how poor Verlander’s defense was.
The difference is literally only two earned runs across the course of the entire season. Certainly we can all agree the Rays outdefended the Tigers by two runs over the course of each pitcher’s 30+ starts. FIP agrees by giving Verlander a 2.94 to 3.05 edge. Felix does well by this measure at 2.84.
Turning to strikeouts Verlander leads the pack with 9.03 per 9 to Price’s 8.74 and Hernandez’s 8.65. Price sports the highest walk rate of the pack at 2.52.
This isn’t the clearest of choices at this point. Verlander has the best K rate, the middle BB rate, and the middle ERA and FIP. But the highest WAR. He threw the most innings and did so in front of the worst defense. All three men could lay some claim to the award, but it has to be Verlander.
It has to be Verlander because he threw the most innings out of the group and because he had the worst defense. WAR says Verlander added the most value while he was on the field of the three, but what it doesn’t account for his how his extra workload took the stress off his bullpen, which could then be well rested to support the other members of the staff. Verlander pitched deeper into games and gave the rest of the staff what it needed to perform best in the start before his and the start after his.
He faced 956 batters this season and had a lot of innings extended by poor defense. Imagine how much deeper into games he could have gone if he had Brendan Ryan playing SS behind him like Felix did.
This is not an open and shut case. There are arguments to be made for Price and Hernandez, but Verlander tops Price for me on innings, Ks, BBs, FIP, and defense and Hernandez by innings, Ks, and defense.
It was another great year for the Tigers’ ace and it should end with more hardware on his mantle.
Full Ballot:
5. Max Scherzer (RHP – DET)
4. Chris Sale (LHP – CWS)
3. Price (LHP – TB)
2. Hernandez (RHP – SEA)
1. Verlander (RHP – DET)
New English D 