2012 Season in Review: Chicago White Sox
85-77, 2nd in the AL Central
In the first year of the post-Ozzie Guillen era, the White Sox were a surprise team. They played much better than expectation until September, at which point, they collapsed and handed the Tigers back the AL Central. I had the White Sox finishing last in my pre-season predictions, so while they fell apart at the end, they should feel good about 85 wins.
Alex Rios had a nice bounce back campaign (4.3 WAR) and AJ Pierzynski (3.4) had one of the best years of his career. Alejandro De Aza (2.7) and Paul Konerko (2.1) were the other position players to cross the 2.0 threshold.
The offense was too weak to take them into the postseason, but the pitching was another matter. The first two spots in the order, Sale (4.9) and Peavy (4.4) were excellent and Gavin Floyd (2.0) was good enough. Jose Quintana even posted a 1.9 WAR in 22 starts. The last spot was a bit of a mess, the rotation was pretty solid, especially for the division in which they played. The Sox pen was also pretty solid.
The Sox faded down the stretch because they played over their heads during the first few months. They were a very average team and ended up a little better than that in the standings.
The brightest spot for me had to be Phil Humber tossing a perfect game on April 21st (during my bachelor party!) despite having completed the travel from hot prospect to journey/swingman.
The Sox have done virtually nothing to improve the 2012 roster, but they have held it together. I think they know that they aren’t in a class with the Tigers and didn’t want to go for broke when it didn’t make sense to do so. I think they’ll be marginally worse in 2013, even though they totally should have gone for Josh Hamilton.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 83-79
2012 Season in Review: Kansas City Royals
72-90, 3rd in the AL Central
For the last several years the Royals farm system was much talked about as about ready to pay dividends and this year was no different in that people talked about it and it did not deliver. It was another tough year for the Royals.
Alex Gordon is on the cusp of becoming a star (5.9 WAR) and Mike Moustakas (3.5) and Billy Butler (3.2) were none too shabby. Salvador Perez (2.6 in 76 games) was excellent as well, while Alcides Escobar was quite useful (2.6) himself. Unfortunately, the offense stopped there. No one else cracked the 2.0 threshold and Eric Hosmer and Jeff Francoeur combined to post a -2.3 WAR. That was a minus sign. So while five everyday players were very good, two were very bad. Think about it this way, Hosmer and Frenchie combined to erase Escobar’s production.
That wasn’t nice of them.
Kidding aside, it wasn’t the offense that tanked the Royals. It was the pitching. Was it ever the pitching?
Their two best pitchers by WAR, Greg Holland (2.2) and Kevin Herrara (1.9), were both relievers. If you see that on a team’s leaderboard, they were a bad team. Case closed. Their four best starting pitchers combined for a WAR (6.1) lower than Justin Verlander’s. The pitching in Kansas City was a colossal mess.
So that might mean that improving their pitching staff would be a good idea for 2013, and it is. They, however, did it in a silly manner. They sign Guthrie to a 3 year deal who was worth 1.5 wins over 91 innings in 2012, so if you bank on him repeating that (which is not a good bet), he’s a solid addition. They traded for the terrible in 2012, but somewhat good before that Ervin Santana. They also made the big Wil Myers plus for Shields and Davis trade.
Don’t get me wrong, their pitching got better for 2013, but they did so at the cost of the future, and at the cost of not having Wil Myers to improve their offense by 3ish wins. Basically, the Royals pitching staff should add 5-7 wins in 2013, but their offense would have gotten at least 2-3 of those from simply having Myers instead of Francoeur.
They will be better in 2013, but not enough so that we should expect them to be true contenders. If you’re a Royals fan, enjoy yourself because baseball is wonderful, but don’t expect your team to be anything but average.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 76-86
Don Kelly and Athletes You Can Feel Good About
Don Kelly is coming back!
That was my reaction to the news today that the Tigers had signed Kelly to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training and a shot to make the club as the 25th man once again.
Let’s be clear upfront, I love Don Kelly. He became my favorite Tiger once the Tigers released Inge last year and I’m very excited about the prospect of him returning to the club. I’m not overly optimistic that it will happen, but I’m happy that he’ll get a shot at it.
You see, Don Kelly is everything that is great about baseball. That may seem odd to you considering that Kelly is a bench player and certainly won’t ever be anything more than that.
But what matters here is how much Kelly loves playing baseball and what a nice guy he is. I would never advocate for Kelly to start in centerfield and hit third for my team, but that’s okay, because only one guy can play centerfield and only one guy can hit third. You need 25 guys on a team, and Kelly fills a very valuable role. He plays every position, has a disciplined approach at the plate, and can get the occasional extra base hit.
He runs pretty well and can fill in as the emergency everything. I’ve personally seen him pitch and catch live and he’s the only active player to have played all nine positions in the majors. He’s played 8 of 9 for the Tigers plus a few games at short for the Pirates.
I love versatility. My favorite players are utility players. Maybe that makes me unusual, but I don’t particularly care. Don Kelly can play anywhere. He rides the bench with great enjoyment and is revered by everyone who knows him as, like, the nicest dude on the planet.
When he got sent down last year, the reporters were tearing up. He told them it wasn’t a funeral, and it wasn’t. He had a game winning sac fly in the ALDS and got to be the hero.
He’s the most polite athlete I’ve ever seen and his love for the game and his teammates is obvious. I love Don Kelly and I’m glad he’s getting another shot.
I’m fully aware that a list of the best 25 players in the Tigers organization probably doesn’t include Kelly, but he’s my favorite one to cheer for. The best 24 and Kelly might win one fewer game than the best 25, and I’m okay with that because sports are better when you can put your faith in someone who won’t let you down.
With all the cheating and lying and general unsavoriness going on with Bonds, Clemens, baseball writers, and Lance Armstrong, I’m more excited than ever to support players who are a little less talented if it means they are a lot better people. Don Kelly is one of those guys.
Don Kelly is easy to root for, so I’m hoping I get more chances to do so.
2012 Season in Review: Cleveland Indians
68-94, 4th in the AL Central
After a better than expected 2011, the Indians fell back to Earth and struggled to avoid the cellar of one of baseball’s worst divisions. They’re making improvements this winter, but they’re still struggling to forget the last year at Progressive Field.
The 2012 Indians features a really nice group of complimentary players on offense, but they had no one to compliment. The star power was missing. Carlos Santana (3.4 WAR), Jason Kipnis (3.1), Asdrubal Cabrera (2.9), Michael Brantley (2.7), and Shin Soo Choo (2.6) all had good seasons, but five solid players isn’t usually enough to make noise. No one else was worth even 1.0 WAR in 2012.
Justin Masterson (2.3) regressed in 2012, which wouldn’t be such a big deal if he wasn’t the Indians’ best pitcher. No one else hit 2.0 WAR. Only Zach McAllister and Vinnie Pestano even topped 1.0 WAR. The pitching was just bad.
But the club had made some moves this winter to change that. They added Nick Swisher on a 4/56 deal and traded the last year of Choo for Trevor Bauer plus others. They signed Brett Myers (who is a solid pitcher when he isn’t committing crimes) and Mark Reynolds to one year deals.
The Indians made good moves this winter, but they only added complimentary pieces. The team is still short on star power. I like what they can do in the back half of the lineup, but they just don’t have the firepower to match the Tigers in the top half. And they definitely don’t have the pitching.
It’s hard to imagine the Tribe contending in 2013 with the roster looking the way it does, but I do think they are one of those teams who are just good enough that if they have Baltimore style luck, they have a shot to at least make it interesting.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 72-90
2012 Season in Review: Minnesota Twins
66-96, 5th in the AL Central
It was another dark year for the Minnesota Twins after spending much of the 2000s as the cost effective kings of the AL Central. They nearly missed losing 100 games and could easily be considered the worst team in the American League.
Joe Mauer did his part (5.0 WAR) and players like Josh Willingham (3.9), Denard Span (3.9), Ben Revere (3.4), and Jamey Carroll (2.4) helped along the way. The rest of the lineup was uninspiring, but serviceable for a non-contender.
But good gracious, the pitching was awful. Scott Diamond’s 2.6 was the only WAR above 1.3 for the entire staff. He was also the only pitcher to throw more than 110 innings. By WAR and FIP they were the worst collective staff in all of baseball. Starters and relievers alike were simply terrible.
The Twins are working on a makeover as they traded Span and Revere for prospects and have signed just about every scrap heap innings eater they can find to serve as stopgaps for 2013. They have some interesting position players coming through the system, but the pitching isn’t terribly exciting.
They should have a bit more reliability in the rotation in 2013 with Worley and his compatriots, but I can’t say they’ll be much better. This is a long road for the Twins to travel back to contention.
With the Tigers improving this offseason and the Royals and Indians making modest upgrades in the short term, it seems unlikely that the Twins will improve upon their 2012 showing.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 65-97
The Nine Best Baseball Websites
Since this is 1) a website and 2) a website about baseball, it makes sense to consider the rest of the online baseball world. Below is a list of what I believe are The Nine Best Baseball websites going right now. There are more than nine good baseball sites, but these are the best in my book for a variety of reasons.
This list was originally crafted in January of 2013, but it’s been updated several times and you’re reading the version as of March 2017. Please don’t be offended if I didn’t mention a site you really like or work for, I’m not trying to throw shade.
9. MLB Trade Rumors
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
This is the site you need to bookmark if you care about transactions. Trades and signings. The staff at MLBTR does a great job synthesizing the news of the day and they do it quickly. I happen to follow a million baseball writers on Twitter and keep tabs on almost everything, but if you don’t have quite that much time, MLB TR does it for you. When roster moves happen, they’re always there for you.
8. MLB.com/Team Website
Not much to explain here except to say that MLB and most teams have done a great job taking their product online with products like Gameday, At-Bat, MLB.TV, the team stores, etc. Having access to video, audio, and box score archives is a huge plus.
7. Cot’s Baseball Contracts
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/
They’re so great that BP bought them. Every contract for every play erand spreadsheets of team payroll data. Want to know how long a contract is and how much it’s worth in each year? They have that. It’s incredible. A one-stop shop.
6. Baseball Savant
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
Savant is Daren Willman’s creation and houses all of the public Statcast data, as well as PITCHf/x data previous years. If you’re into that type of thing, it’s an excellent resource to go deep into the weeds. But it’s more than that considering the amount of work Daren has put in over the last year. Graphics, comparisons, catcher data, you name it. Plus, he is willing to add features on request. Hugely vital for the baseball researcher.
5. Baseball Prospectus
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
There are two hesitations on BP, the firs being that most of their content is behind a paywall. That’s certainly their right, but one should judge a site based on its quality to cost ratio. The other hesitations is user interface. They have lots of statistics, but the quality of presentation trails Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs (even if they do keep some good esoteric ones), and the overall visual appeal of the site is lacking. That said, I’m telling you why they’re 5th instead of 2nd. They have a huge range of content, great set of podcasts, and overall excellent product that mixes MLB, fantasy, and prospect level coverage.
4. Brooks Baseball
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/
Brooks Baseball is a top nine website for its Pitch F/X tool. You can select a date, game, and pitcher and within minutes, be looking at everything he threw that day, where it went, and how much it broke. Those graphics you see on MLB Gameday and MLB At-Bat with all of this data are compiled here and stored in a very accessible way. They’ve also added data on hitters and have dramatically improved the functionality of the site since this list was originally published. If you want to study PITCHf/x data without doing a lot of work yourself, Brooks is the place to do it.
3. Twitter
This may seem like a cop out, and it kind of is, but Twitter is an extraordinarily useful tool for following baseball. Breaking news, live analysis, and other content is at your fingertips no matter where you are and the speed and brevity make a good match. You can follow along on the couch or in the stands if you’re just looking for some commentary, or stay up to date if you aren’t able to follow the game. Plus, it’s a great way to connect with other fans and talk about the game as it happens.
2. Baseball-Reference
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
The amount of information on this site is staggering. Statistics, draft info, random trivia. It’s a clearinghouse for everything you need to know and the exceptionally cool Play Index allows you to go looking for quirky events on top of the regular things you find on any given page. Serious, get the Play Index.
1. Fangraphs
By far my favorite baseball site. They have a ton of statistical data and sabermetric information, but they also have excellent analysis from a group of very good writers. They do daily live chats and podcasts and are great about giving the people what they want. You can find a section that explains every sabermetric statistic and they do a fantastic job improving the functionality of the site and provide readers with much more user friendly leaderboards than B-Ref. If you want stats, this is the best place to get them. If you want smart analysis, this is also the best place to get it. (Full disclosure: I am employed by FanGraphs, although the site has been ranked #1 on this list since before that. Also, if you think I could financially benefit from this ranking you might not understand how blogging on the internet works).
Introducing ‘The Nine’
Something I’ve learned over the course of my life is that people love lists and rankings. They can’t get enough of them. If you write a paragraph about a group of good shortstops it will be less popular than a list of the five best shortstops even if the information is identical. Call it a quirk of humanity.
That said, the most highly read piece on this site was my list of the nine best baseball books, so I have some evidence to back this up besides the success of the otherwise useless Bleacher Report. People like lists and people like rankings.
So you’re going to get them. SABR Toothed Tigers is proud to introduce The Nine, a series of rankings, lists, and other things that can be grouped that relate to baseball’s most usable number, 9.
Nine positions, nine innings, nine things on our lists.
This will be a regular Saturday feature for us at STT and we’d love to hear any suggestions you might have about what you’d like to see discussed in our rankings. As I noted above, The Nine Best Baseball Books are already available on this site. Look for The Nine Best Baseball Websites this weekend and notice the new tab on the homepage with links to all of STT’s The Nine‘s
Enjoy!
2012 Season in Review: National League West
It was a big year for the National League West as the the World Series champion and the newest baseball juggernaut called the left coast home. The Dodgers spent a lot of the season as a surprise contender and then big time spender while the steady as she goes Giants took home the ultimate prize.
Here’s how the division finished up:
And for those of you tracking how it played out, here are the playoff odds from April to October
My early projection for next season looks like this:
And finally, I look back at my 2012 grades for each club.
The NL West Cy Young is Clayton Kershaw’s in a runaway, and Buster Posey takes the NL West MVP over Chase Headley.
2012 Season in Review: San Francisco Giants
94-68, 1st in the NL West
Won World Series
The Giants won the World Series in 2012, so this is a pretty academic review. They won 94 games in the regular season and had two great series comebacks in the playoffs before stomping on the Tigers on their way to the second title in three years.
Buster Posey’s MVP season (8.0 WAR) led the way for Angel Pagan (4.8), Melky Cabrera (4.6 in 113 games), Pablo Sandoval (2.8), Gregor Blanco (2.4), Brandon Crawford (2.0), and Marco Scutaro (1.8 in 61 games). AT&T Park suppresses offense, so some of the traditional numbers might not look great, but I assure you the Giants position players were good.
When you think Giants, you think pitching. Cain (3.8), Bumgarner (3.4), and Vogelsong (2.6) did their jobs despite a terrible season from Tim Lincecum (1.5). The bullpen was great again and it helped carry them through the postseason.
Cain tossed a perfect game and the team came back from big deficits in the NLDS and NLCS to set up their sweep over the Tigers.
The Giants will keep most of the 2012 crew together going into next season and will likely get a better performance out of Lincecum. They’ll lose the wins from Melky but should get a little more from Scutaro and Sandoval.
2013 will likely look a lot like 2012 for them in regular season and they’re set up for another deep playoff run. The Dodgers look stronger out west, but they’re not a lock for anything.
The Giants won the World Series in 2012 for the second time in three seasons and the party will continue until Opening Day.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
No One Gets Elected to the Hall of Fame
The BBWAA elected no one to the Hall of Fame today despite a rather deep ballot in light of steroid era concerns. You can read my views on electing suspected users from last year, here.
If I had a vote for the Hall of Fame and was limited, like the voters, to ten votes per ballot, my list would look like this:
Bagwell
Raines
Martinez
Bonds
Clemens
Piazza
Schilling
Biggio
McGwire
Sosa
New English D 