The Morning Edition (May 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mets rally late to back a strong outing by Niese against the Yanks
- Samardzija drops a CGSO against the cross town Sox
- Aaron Harang also provides a CGSO against San Diego
- Skaggs is sharp at the front of a doubleheader
- Wainwright goes 8 to beat Shields and the Royals 6-3
- Gomez homers twice, but the Crew lose to the Twins
- The Astros walk off in 12 versus the Rockies
- Votto’s 8th inning homer leads the Reds over the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gausman takes his second turn, gets the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Yankees for the first time (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee comes to Boston (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale tries to take one from the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is the new schedule dulling interleague play?
Danny Knobler at CBS wrote yesterday how little buzz there is for this week’s big interleague matchups and I’m in total agreement. Interleague play, which is the scorn of my father’s generation, used to feel special for me. It would be fun to spend a couple weeks watching players from the NL that I usually didn’t get to watch up close. Now, those teams are sprinkled into the normal schedule after nearly 20 years of being confined to a fortnight or so in June. The novelty has really lost its luster. It feels strange and awkward and forced. It’s either time to add two more teams and dump interleague play or get rid of the pretense all together and play all 29 clubs.
How Was The Game? (May 27, 2013)
A much more typical affair.
Tigers 6, Pirates 5
After three shaky starts in a row, Justin Verlander (6-4, 66 IP, 3.68 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 2.5 WAR) set out to silence the doubters and did a fine job, delivering 7 innings of 3 run baseball that featured 13, yes 13, strikeouts and just 2 walks. The final stat line actually belies Verlander’s dominance as the Pirates grabbed two of their runs at the very end of the game. For most of the contest they were absolutely overmatched, until the fourth trip through the lineup. You can also see here that his fastball velocity matched the typical Verlander style that we came to love with the early ones in the low 90s and the late ones ratcheting up toward 100 (via Pitch F/X classification and velo):
On the other side, the Tigers got runs off three Jhonny Peralta (.341/.392/.500, 138 wRC+, 2.1 WAR) RBI hits, a Brayan Pena bases loaded walk, and a big Victor Martinez double. Benoit allowed two runs in the 8th inning, but also registered his first career pickoff in 805.2 career innings and turned it over to Valverde in the 9th who put the tying run on before getting out of the inning. The Tigers added their 6th win in their last 7 and now stand at 29-20 with Rick Porcello (2-2, 43 IP, 6.28 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 0.3 WAR) on the hill tomorrow looking to sweep the home half of this four game set with the Pirates.
The Moment: Verlander Ks 13 Pirates.
Two Reasons Max Scherzer Got Tougher
Last week, I spent some time breaking down Max Scherzer’s great start against the Indians and pointed out some factors that led to his success: 1) command of his fastball 2) better velocity 3) and increasing velocity in the late innings. But Scherzer was strong again yesterday and I took a quick peak as to why. Here are two things I found:
1) Excellent Command
First, let’s look at his strikezone plot from the Indians start
He stayed away from the high 1/4 of the zone, only pitching there four times. But let’s look at yesterday:
Scherzer threw one pitch that was in the zone and in the top 1/4 of the zone. One. There are also fewer pitches in the dirt and a few more at hitting height but outside the reach of the hitters.
2) Fastball Movement
Here’s a plot of Scherzer’s velocity and horizontal movement from the Cleveland start and then the Twins start.
These graphs are on identical horizontal scales. Look at how much more movement he got on his fastball and changeup.
Velocity is great, Scherzer has it. Command is great, Scherzer has it. Movement is great, Scherzer has it. He’s having his best season so far and should probably start thinking about making reservations in New York for the Midsummer Classic.
The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
How Was The Game? (May 26, 2013)
A nice clean win.
Tigers 6, Twins 1
On Memorial Day Sunday, the Tigers gave the ball to Max Scherzer (7-0, 68.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.5 WAR) to deliver the series victory against the Twins and he did just that. Scherzer gave the Tigers 6 innings of 1 run baseball mixed with 6 Ks, 3 BB, and just 3 hits to keep the Twins from mounting any offense. Torii Hunter put the Tigers on the board with a first inning opposite field homer and Fielder extended the lead with a 4th inning RBI double. With the score 2-1 in the bottom of the 6th, the Tigers bats came alive as struggling catcher Alex Avila got a bloop RBI single to set up a bases clearing triple from Avi Garcia to put the game out of reach. The win improves the Tigers to 28-20 on the season and gives them 5 wins in their last 6 tries ahead of a 4 game home and home series with the Pittsburgh Pirates starting on Monday. Justin Verlander (5-4, 59 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 2.1 WAR) will get the ball in game one, looking to straighten himself out and get back to his early season dominance.
The Moment: Garcia slams a bases loaded triple to left center.
The Morning Edition (May 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Pagan hits a walk off inside the park homerun against the Rockies
- Peavy goes the distance as the Sox walk off against Miami
- Gomez homers twice but it’s not enough to beat the Bucs
- Moore is strong against the Yanks but the bullpen blows it in extras
- The Red Sox offense picks up a mediocre Lester against the Tribe
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza against Cueto in Cincinnati (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Strasburg duel in DC (130p Eastern)
- CC and Cobb at the Trop (130p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Padres (4p Eastern)
- SHELBY MILLER VERSUS CLAYTON KERSHAW (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which game most intrigues you today?
The answer to that is obviously Cardinals and Dodgers as it includes two very good starters who are pitching well as of late. Kershaw is a well established Appointment Television starter and Shelby Miller, I can tell you on good authority, is just one good start away from making that list. Kershaw enters the game at 5-2 through 73.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and 2.0 WAR, not to mention a dazzling track record while his opponent, Miller, is 5-3 through 57 innings with a 1.74 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 1.6 WAR to go along with his prospect pedigree. One likely expects a great pitchers’ duel from this one, but as the author learned just last week in the Verlander-Darvish Fiasco of 2013, great pitching matchups sometimes disappoint the viewer who wishes to see nothing but amazing starting pitching. The game not only features two of the authors favorite pitchers to watch, but it takes place after the Tigers game and will be announced by the golden pipes of Vin Scully. Enjoy, world.
How Was The Game? (May 25, 2013)
A tight one.
Twins 3, Tigers 2
After Sanchez rolled by the Twins last night, it was time for a close game at Comerica Park and the Twins got to Doug Fister (5-2, 61.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 1.9 WAR) for 3 first inning runs before he shut them down the rest of the way to finish with 7 innings, 8 hits, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, and 8 Ks thanks to better use of his curveball. Hunter doubled in a run in the 5th and Peralta homered in the 6th to close the gap to 3-2 entering the late innings, but the Tigers would get no closer. The loss drops the Tigers to 27-20 on the season, but they will try to take the series tomorrow with Max Scherzer (6-0, 62.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 2.3 WAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Fister gets a big double play to escape trouble in the 3rd.
The Nine Best Tigers Teams Ever
Today, the Detroit Tigers are paying tribute to the 1968 team during the 45th anniversary year of that team’s World Series win, the 3rd in Tigers history. Today, I though I’d give you a ranking of the best Tigers teams ever by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which will allow for a comparison between eras.
As you may know, one of the primary benefits of WAR is that it compares players to their own contemporaries, meaning that it controls for the overall quality of the league at the time. Obviously, Babe Ruth played in a low HR era, so his totals look more impressive than someone like Sammy Sosa who played at the height of offense in MLB. WAR allows us to make direct comparisons between teams that played decades apart, which is why I’m using it. Obviously, you can look at win totals and how far each team went in the postseason, but this is another approach to the same question.
9. 1909 Tigers (47 WAR, 98 Wins, lost World Series)
8. 1946 Tigers (48.6 WAR, 92 Wins)
7. 1968 Tigers (48.8 WAR, 103 Wins, won World Series)
6. 1940 Tigers (49.4 WAR, 90 Wins, lost World Series)
5. 1935 Tigers (50.1 WAR, 93 Wins, won World Series)
4. 1961 Tigers (50.7 WAR, 101 Wins)
3. 1915 Tigers (50.8 WAR, 100 Wins)
2. 1984 Tigers (51.6 WAR, 104 Wins, won World Series)
1. 1934 Tigers (52.1 WAR, 101 Wins, lost World Series)
Should you be interested, the 2012 Tigers ranked 16th on this list with 43.9 WAR and 88 Wins, while the 2006 Tigers were 23rd with 42.2 WAR and 95 wins. Surprisingly (and perhaps due to WWII), the World Champion 1945 Tigers are 56th on the list with 34.5 WAR and 88 wins. The 2013 Tigers are already better than 13 other Tigers teams!
It’s also of note, perhaps, the strong relationship that Wins Above Replacement has with actual team Wins in large samples; nearly a perfect 1 to 1 ratio.
So while we tend to consider the four World Series teams the best ones, if you’re looking for regular season greatness the list looks slightly different. Let’s celebrate all of the great Tigers teams, and even the bad ones. Even that one at the far bottom left portion of the graph. I still love you, 2003 Tigers.
The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
How Was The Game? (May 24, 2013)
So close.
Tigers 6, Twins 0
There are two types of no-hitters, the kind you see coming a mile away and the kind that sneak up on you. Verlander is a master of the first, but Anibal Sanchez (5-4, 64.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 2.9 WAR) nearly delivered the second tonight as he fell two outs short against the Minnesota Twins. He struck out 12 and walked only 3?enroute to his eight career CG. Early on, he seemed ordinary but the stuff slowly started showing up and once he walked off the mound after the fifth inning, I looked up and thought, “Hmmm. No hits?” That doesn’t typically happen for someone like me who is completely engrossed in the game from start to finish, but somehow it snuck up on me. And then there is was. Sanchez was marching toward history. Six innings. Seven. Eight. Cabrera, Infante, and Kelly each backed him with two runs driven in and it was never in doubt. As crowd buzzed more with every pitch, #19 rose to the occasion, willing him to throw the first Tigers no-hitter by someone other than Justin Verlander since Jack Morris in 1984. With the top of the order up in the 9th, Sanchez went to work. Carroll down on strikes. And then Joe Mauer, JOE MAUER, singled back up the box to ruin everyone’s day. He got Willingham on strikes and then Morneau with the same. The win, their fourth straight, improves the Tigers to 27-19 on the year and they will look to win the series tomorrow afternoon behind Doug Fister (5-1, 54.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.7 WAR).
The Moment: Sanchez gets the final out (see above) after loosing the no-no two batters earlier.
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