The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hicks hits 2 HR and robs one for good measure as Twins beat the White Sox
- Masterson delivers a CGSO as the Tribe split a DH with the Yanks
- Upton mashes in his return to Arizona
- Harper injured as the Nats roll
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix and CC face off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore welcomes the Red Sox to the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Corbin tries to quiet the Braves in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Nats in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you think Dbacks fans liked Upton’s homecoming?
Here are the four best teams by wRC+ as of 12:19am (May 14): Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, Rays. The Tigers certainly fit, but I don’t know how many people would have said the Indians, Sox, and Rays were top level offenses when the seasons started. The Marlins and White Sox are the worst, but that Nationals are 28th, which is exactly how we all saw it six weeks ago. I’m a big fan of the Anthony Rizzo extension because I think he’s going to be a star and he’s about to be paid like less than $7 million AAV during his prime. In the last calendar year, he’s played 124 games in the big leagues and has 24 HR and a .283/.345/.485 line good for 124 wRC+. Among players below Rizzo by wRC+ over the last year are: A-Gon, Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Carlos Gonzalez. Rizzo is good and now he is cheap.
How Was The Game? (May 13, 2013)
It’s always fun to play the Astros.
Tigers 7, Astros 2
The Tigers performed against the Astros as a team should. Behind a strong start by Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 52.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 2.6 WAR) in which he went 7 innings, allowed 2 runs, struck out 8 and walked 1. In addition to Sanchez’s strong outing, Andy Dirks’ 4th inning grand slam backed Victor Martinez’s 2 run homer in the same inning to give the Tigers plenty of offense with which to work. The Tigers didn’t miss Jackson with Dirks providing three hits from the leadoff spot and Sanchez maintained his position atop the pitcher WAR leaderboard – actually by a lot. After today’s start, Sanchez now owns a 11.28 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in 8 starts, which if you’re new to baseball, is very good. Both numbers, in addition to the ERA and FIP, are on pace to be career bests. Should Sanchez keep anything close to this pace up for the rest of the season, this will certainly be Sanchez’s career year. One of the things that is contributing to Sanchez’s success this year is his increased reliance on his changeup as opposed to in the past (as illustrated below by yearly averages):
It’s too early to say for sure, but it looks like trading a few sliders for some changeups is helping Sanchez perform above his career norms early in 2013. He’s also allowing fewer homeruns per flyball (2.6%) than his career average (8.2%) which could be good fortune or the result of the new approach. The Tigers will look to take the series tomorrow night with Doug Fister (4-1, 43 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.2 WAR) toeing the rubber.
The Moment: Dirks hits a no doubt grand slam – the first of his career – in the 4th.
Jackson Heads to the DL, Garcia Called Up
Today the Tigers put CF Austin Jackson on the DL with a pulled hamstring retroactive to May12 and recalled OF Avisail Garcia from AAA Toledo. Jackson’s injury doesn’t appear to be terribly serious, so he should only miss a couple of weeks and Garcia should be able to fill in admirably.
So far this year, Garcia has 6 games at Lakeland during an injury rehab (.417/.500/.708) and 8 games at Toledo (.432/.447/.541) and has hit well at both spots. The sample is small, but it’s good to see a player with great raw tools performing well on the field even if it is only over 14 games. In 51 PA with the Tigers last season, his .319/.373/.319 line indicated he was able to make contact against big league pitching, but he wasn’t yet able to drive the baseball for extra bases. His minor league power numbers have been climbing over the last year, so look for some of that to show up at the big league level.
Garcia is still just 21 years old and still requires some seasoning, but he is a great athlete with an excellent throwing arm who should at least be able to spell Jackson for now without costing the team too much over the short run. The Tigers might even get lucky and discover he’s ready for prime time, in which case, the Tigers’ lineup will get even scarier for opposing pitchers. To me, he’s a .270 type 15/15 guy who can give you plus defense in a corner.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
How Was The Game? (May 12, 2013)
Great, until Valverde time.
Indians 4, Tigers 3
On Mother’s Day, the Tigers lost the rubber match of the three game series against the Indians despite a strong effort from Rick Porcello (1-2, 32.1 IP, 6.68 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 0.2 WAR) who allowed 2 runs in 6 innings of work while limiting the Indians to 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. This marks his third consecutive quality start and during those three starts he has averaged 8.4 K/9, which is very good for a groundball pitcher. The offense was provided mostly by backup catcher Brayan Pena, who had three hits including a 2 run homerun, but also via an Infante sacrifice fly. Valverde entered the game in the 9th win a one run lead and gave it away with two walks and a single, forcing the Tigers to deliver in the bottom of the 9th which they were unable to do, sending the game to the 10th inning where they gave up a run and couldn’t match it. The loss drops the Tigers to 20-15 and just their 4th series loss in 12 tries this year. They will welcome the Astros to Comerica Park for three starting tomorrow behind Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 45.2 IP, 1.97 ERA, 1.48 FIP, 2.2 WAR), the league’s best starting pitcher by WAR so far this season despite having one fewer start than his competitors Wainwright, Buchholz, and Verlander.
The Moment: Pena’s homerun just clear the right centerfield wall.
The Morning Edition (May 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright nearly no-hits the Rockies, settles for a CGSO
- The bullpen nearly blows Darvish’s W in Houston
- Longoria bails out Hellickson with a walk off HR against the Padres
- Stasburg allows 4 unearned runs, but loses anyway to the Cubs
- Buehrle outduels Buchholz as Lind’s HR saves the day
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey against the Pirates (1p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Santana match up in KC (2p Eastern)
- Wilson and Sale try to buoy struggling teams on Sunday Night Baseball (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Cardinals or Tigers staff, which is better?
If you evaluate the above question by WAR, it’s the Tiger easily. They’re first in baseball at 9.5 (11p Eastern Saturday), more than 2 WAR ahead of second place. The Cardinals are 5th, a full four wins back. Yet the Cards ERA is a sparkling 2.92 while the Tigers are at 3.45. If you look at FIP, the Tigers are ahead 2.58 to 3.06. This is a good lesson in run prevention and expected run prevention. The Tigers out pitch the Cardinals in two of three areas in which the pitcher has control; strikeouts and homeruns. What’s funny is that the Cardinals don’t have a much better defense. It appears that they are getting a little better sequencing than the Tigers right now. Additionally, the Tigers starters have 7.5 to the Cardinals 5.6 WAR – so the Cardinals are weighed down by a terrible bullpen. They are 1 and 2 in SP WAR and 3 and 27th in reliever WAR. It’s a fun debate however you wish to slice it and I wouldn’t mind having either starting staff, though I’m partial to the Tigers.
How Was The Game? (May 11, 2013)
Out of sorts early.
Indians 7, Tigers 5
Justin Verlander (4-3, 51.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 2.1 WAR) was not on his game early against the Indians and found himself 60 pitches deep after two innings and trailing 3-0. He had trouble locating his fastball and worked his way into an offspeed heavy approach that limited the damage, but his early struggles delivered a final line that was just 5 innings, 4 runs (3 earned), 5 walks, and 7 strikeouts. He left trailing 4-1, which was closer than it felt, but it was close enough to allow for a rally. The bullpen ballooned the deficit to 6-1 before a big 4 run 7th narrowed the gap. Alburquerque surrendered a run in the 8th to make it 7-5 and Tuiasosopo came to the plate as the go-ahead run in the 8th but hit into an inning ending double play. In the 9th, the Tigers put two on with one out and Jackson hit into a fielder’s choice followed by a Hunter RBI single to bring Cabrera to the dish with the tying run at 2nd. Unfortunately, he grounded out to end the game. With the loss, the Tigers drop to 20-14 on the season and will try to take the series tomorrow behind Rick Porcello (1-2, 26.1 IP, 7.52 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 0.1 WAR).
The Moment: Infante triples in two to make it 6-4 in the 7th
The Nine Players I Wish I Had Been Alive to See
In baseball more than other sports, we are captivated by history. The great players who came before us are mythical figures. Bart Starr is pretty much just a football player, but Babe Ruth is something else entirely. We pass down stories to our children of the players we got to see and marvel at how certain players seemed to dominate their era.
Below is a list, entirely my own and entirely subjective, of players I wish I had been alive to see. Anyone who played after 1990 is ineligible and the qualifications are not necessarily based on anything other than who I find to be the exciting and tantalizing figures whom I was unable to see.
9. Brooks Robinson (35th All-Time in position player WAR)
Advanced defensive statistics aren’t particularly reliable before the last several seasons of in depth video analysis, but plenty of baseball statisticians have worked through the data of yesteryear to provide a decent approximation. What those metrics tell us is that Brooks Robinson was 5% more valuable on defense than the second best defender in baseball history. He was a slightly above average hitter, but a preposterously impressive defender. Any old-school eyeball influenced observer would tell you the same. Robinson is quite possibly the best glove man to ever put on a pair of cleats.
8. Jackie Robinson (133rd All-Time in position player WAR)
Jackie is of no relation to Brooks, but that doesn’t make him less interesting. Robinson’s story isn’t one that requires much explanation. He broke baseball’s color barrier and was both a very good player and a man who could restrain his emotions and conduct himself with grace, such that he may be one of the most influential figures of the 20th century. A career 135 wRC+ doesn’t hurt either.
7. Ted Williams (8th All-Time in position player WAR)
Williams’ modest personal goal was to be the greatest hitter whoever lived. Perhaps the only person who can contend for that title with Williams is Babe Ruth. Williams career 188 wRC+ is 2nd only to Ruth and has the highest career OBP in baseball history and is second in slugging percentage to the same. It’s hard to imagine a more impressive plate appearance than what Ted Williams could offer in his prime.
6. Willie Mays (4th All-Time in position player WAR)
Many consider Mays to be the greatest player to ever put on a uniform and I won’t argue with anyone who thinks so. He was a superb defender in centerfield (7th best defender in history according to advanced metrics) and hit a measly 660 homeruns while posting a 154 wRC+. Maybe I wouldn’t say he was best player to ever live, but I couldn’t name too many who’d be in that conversation along with him.
5. Roberto Clemente (34th All-Time in position player WAR)
Clemente’s career was also cut short like Koufax’s, but his was cut short tragically while on an aid mission. He was a fine hitter (career 129 wRC+), but he is on this list for his defense, especially his arm. It was a magic arm. One of the best two of all time and the other contender is two spots below him on this list. Clemente is 5th all time by advanced defensive metrics and trails just one outfielder (Andruw Jones). I’d pay a good amount of money to watch him stand at the warning track and throw baseball’s to third base.
4. Sandy Koufax (62nd All-Time in pitcher WAR)
Now you may think that the only pitcher on this list should be higher on the all time WAR list than 62nd, but Koufax’s low total is the function of a short career and not a brilliant prime. The Dodger lefty is the pitcher most deserving of a spot on this list because 1) many of the game’s best arms pitched during my lifetime and 2) he’s among a small number of Jewish players to truly excel in sports. Among pitchers who were predominantly starters who qualify, he’s 9th all-time in K/9 and he’s at the top of that list if you restrict it to players whose careers ended before 1990. He is the strikeout king of pitchers before my time. He had three 9.8+ WAR seasons. The only other pitcher who can make that claim was Silver King who played in the 1880s! He was awesome.
3. Al Kaline (25th All-Time in position player WAR)
Mr. Tiger gets extra points for being the greatest Tiger to ever live (IMO, take that Cobb!) and being my father’s favorite player growing up. But he’s also everything I love in a player. A fine hitter (134 wRC+) with good plate discipline (11.0% BB rate) and an excellent defender with a brilliant arm. Kaline ranks as the 19th best defensive player ever and has an arm at which Tigers fans still marvel. He used to throw behind runners rounding first base and get them out. I’ve never seen that happen in my years of watching baseball. Additionally, Kaline is an exemplary citizen who has literally worked for just one company since he graduate high school: the Detroit Tigers. Takes “Always a Tiger” to a new level.
2. Joe DiMaggio (33rd All-Time in position player WAR)
DiMaggio was a great player, no question, and a great hitter (career 152 wRC+), but his reason for being on this list is simple. He owns the most impressive record in sports history. I’m very fond of Ripkin’s games played streak, but DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak is quite simply the pinnacle of human athletic achievement. Hitting a baseball is widely regarded as the most difficult single task in sports and DiMaggio got a base hit or more in 56 consecutive games, when most players rarely make it 10. Yet what makes this record so spectacular is that it is so far ahead of its challengers. It’s 27% longer than the second longest streak ever. 27%! Let me put it this way, Hank Aaron’s 755 homeruns rank second most all time. In order to be 27% better than that, Bonds would have had to hit 959 homeruns. DiMaggio’s accomplishment is without equals.
1. Stan Musial (10th All-Time in position player WAR)
Stan Musial was a brilliant hitter and a brilliant citizen. Ruth, Hornsby, Williams, and Gehrig are the only players in history to exceed Musial in average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. That’s the whole list. He was a solid defender and was one of the nicest men to ever play professional sports. During his career, hitters struck out 11% of the time. He struck out 5.5% of the time. Relative to league average, he’d be a 10% type strikeout guy today who walked 20% of the time. There is no one even close to that type of ratio. Not even a little. That level of plate discipline belongs on Mount Rushmore.
Who are on your wish you had seem them list?
The Morning Edition (May 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jon Lester delivers a 1 hit CGSO as the Sox beat the Jays 5-0
- Alex Cobb strikes out 13 Padres in 4.2 inning, including 4 in one inning…an inning in which he allowed a run on 2 SB and a balk…and fails to pitch deep enough to win
- Miller is brilliant again against the Rockies, retiring 27 straight after allowing a leadoff hit (CG, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13K)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz welcomes the Blue Jays to Fenway (130p Eastern)
- Wainwright gets a challenge from the Rockies (2p Eastern)
- Strasburg gets the Cubs offense (4p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Astros (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee starts in the desert (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which of the six Appointment Television starters who pitch today will you be watching?
Often in this space, I highlight a player who is performing well. Today, who is performing poorly? On the pitching side of things, the winner is Mark Buehrle who owns a -0.5 WAR and 7.02 ERA and 6.34 FIP. His strikeout and walk rates are about on par with career norms, but he’s getting fewer groundballs and allowing an insane amount of homeruns. The homerun rate will regress, but a low strikeout control type guy like Buehrle has a pretty small margin for error and his number can balloon quickly. The league’s worst position player, just barely, is Jeff Keppinger who is worth -1.0 WAR and boasts and impressive .195/.191/.212 line in 27 games, good for a -3 wRC+. This means a couple things. First, he’s taken zero walks, so his sacrifice flies make his OBP lower than his batting average and he is 103% worse at the plate right now than league average. Just to give you an entire of what that indicates, the worst offensive season since WWII belongs to Billy Hunter and his 29 wRC+ for the St. Louis Browns. Not that he won’t pick up a little, but if Keppinger keeps this up, (he’ll get benched) he’ll have the worst season relative to league average by 32% since 1946. Impressive.
How Was The Game? (May 10, 2013)
A demonstration of offense.
Tigers 10, Indians 4
In the first meeting of the season between the Tigers and the Indians, the Tigers unleashed an offensive assault that would make the hard-hitting Tribe proud. Fielder, Cabrera, and Dirks homered as part of nine Tigers extra base hits and 15 total. The Tribe, for their part, did get 4 runs off Max Scherzer (5-0, 47.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.85 FIP, 2.0 WAR) in 8 innings, but he held them to 5 hits and struck out 7 while walking none. Scherzer’s pitch count was low enough that Leyland could have sent him out there for a shot at his first career complete game, but instead had to settle for his 13th career outing of 8 innings or more. Any of the big homeruns might stand out, but Torii Hunter delivered a baserunning miscue in the second inning that cost the Tigers a run. With two outs, he singled to right field and Avila scored ahead of Infante who was right behind him. However, Hunter rounded the bag carelessly and was tagged out by the cutoff man, Mark Reynolds, before Infante could score. That isn’t the kind of mistake you usually see from a veteran like Hunter. The victory gives the Tigers their 20th win on the season and they will look to take the series tomorrow night behind Justin Verlander (4-2, 46.1 IP, 1.55 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 2.0 WAR).
The Moment: Prince Fielder’s 3rd inning homerun travels ~460 feet to right center.
New English D 