How Was The Game? (May 5, 2013)
Almost.
Tigers 9, Astros 0
It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which the Tigers jumped out to a big early lead behind four homeruns and completed a four game sweep that pushed their record to 9-1 in their last 10 and 19-11 on the season that we would feel slightly unfulfilled. That lack of fulfillment comes at the faunt of Justin Verlander (4-2, 46.1 IP, 1.55 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.0 WAR) who taunted us again with his brilliance and held the Astros hitless through 6.1 inning before allowing a single to erstwhile Tiger Carlos Pena. Just four major league pitchers have thrown 3 no-hitters in the modern era and Verlander was making yet another run to join that club. In failing to do so, he still managed to throw 7 shutout innings and struck out 9 Astros. His pitch count was slightly elevated all afternoon, but the uncomfortable moments for Leyland were avoided as Verlander allowed a hit before he crosses into 120+ pitch territory. The Tigers will take tomorrow off to bask in their victorious weekend and will head to DC to face the Nats behind Anibal Sanchez (3-2. 39.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 1.31 FIP, 2.0 WAR) on Tuesday.
The Moment: Verlander takes a no-hiiter into the 7th inning.
The Morning Edition (May 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Lorenzo Cain drives in 2 in the first to back Guthrie’s CGSO against the White Sox
- Jose Fernandez allows 1 hit in 7 innings while striking out 9 Phillies in his first ML win
- Strasburg gives up 2 homeruns in 7 innings, but the Nats score 1 in the top of the 9th to outlast the Bucs
- Wainwright struggles for the first time (5 ER in 5.1 IP), but the Cards deliver in the 9th to win
- Dickey gets lit up by the Mariners, Blue Jays fall 8-1
- Hughes throws 8 scoreless as the Yanks top the A’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Hudson tries to an encore to his 200th win against Niese and the Mets (1p Eastern)
- Halladay looks to straighten out again against the Marlins (230p Eastern)
- Jon Lester. Yu Darvish. Arlington, Texas. (3p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb takes his hot start to Coors Field (4p Eastern)
- Strikeout happy Ryu gets struggling ace Matt Cain at AT&T (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- On a day in which Strasburg and Wainwright were on the mound, how did Guthrie, Fernandez, and Hughes headline the night? (Well, Scherzer did his part!)
R.A. Dickey…what’s going on? I certainly expected some regression from the 2012 peak in moving to the AL and a hitter friendly park, but this is pretty serious so far. We’re not deep enough into the season to totally dismiss a small sample size issue, but it’s getting to the point where it just doesn’t look like he’s going to pitch at or around ace levels for the foreseeable future. He’s 2-5 in 7 starts over 42 IP with a 7.07 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9 to go with a 5.36 ERA and 5.19 FIP. Granted, FIP isn’t a great judge of knuckleballers, but the other numbers don’t exactly hearten Blue Jays fans or Dickey fantasy owners (the present author included). If you go back to the much more reasonable 2010-2011 seasons, Dickey’s numbers this year don’t match those either. His strikeouts are up, but his walks are too. His ERA is way up, but his groundball rate is down considerably. That’s the item on the list that catches my attention the most. I haven’t watch Dickey enough to know, but I’m curious if this is the league figuring him out. Maybe he’s not much different and hitters are just getting smarter. I’m not sure, and I know there is some injury talk, but either way, the Mets are starting to look like even better for the offseason deal. The Jays can still turn it around if Dickey finds his groove, but I’m starting to wonder if he will.
How Was The Game? (May 4, 2013)
Just a domination.
Tigers 17, Astros 2
To give you an indication of how this one played out, Jim Leyland pulled both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the late innings and the Tigers scored 5 more runs after they left the game. It was a thorough annihilation the likes of which we haven’t seen yet this year. The Tigers jumped out to a 4-0 lead before Scherzer threw a pitch and added runs in every inning except the 3rd. Jackson, Hunter, Martinez, Peralta, Avila, and Infante all had multi-hit games, but Cabrera (.390/.467/.627, 196 wRC+, 1.7 WAR) stood out at the plate with 4 hits, 2 massive homeruns, and 6 runs batted in and added a dandy diving play in the field for good measure. The Tigers finally treated the Astros pitchers like the Astros and Max Scherzer (4-0, 39.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 1.6 WAR) treated the Astros hitters the same way. The offense may have stolen your attention, but he was not to be outdone. He went 8 innings and allowed just a single run while striking out 8, walking 2 and allowing 3 hits.. With the win, the Tigers take the series and improve to 18-11 on the season and will go for the sweep tomorrow behind Justin Verlander (3-2, 39.1 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 1.6 WAR).
The Moment: Cabrera crushes a 2nd inning homerun to extend the lead early.
The Nine Most Average Hitters of the Last Decade
Have you ever sat back and thought about being typical? Average? Middle of the road? Chances are you haven’t, but don’t worry, that’s where I come in. I answer questions you never knew you had and I’m about to do it again.
Have you ever wondered who the most average players are? We talk a lot about league average when we talk about statistics, but we don’t often provide illustrative examples. So let’s do that.
Below are a list of the most average MLB players over the last decade (2004-present) as defined by wRC+. There were 10-20 players who have posted a 100 wRC+ during that time period, so to make The Nine list, you have to have a 100 wRC+ since 2004 and then you have to have the most plate appearances doing so (as of 5/3/2013).
9. Ian Desmond (1964 PA)
8. Mike Jacobs (2140)
7. Marcus Giles (2190)
6. Brad Wilkerson (2412)
5. Xavier Nady (2794)
4. Mark Loretta (2885)
3. Coco Crisp (4397)
2. Aaron Hill (4494)
1. Alex Rios (5449)
Normally I write a blurb about each of the items on our The Nine lists, but I’d like to consider this one as a group because it’s more interesting to me. Notice the groupings. Players ranked 5-9 all have between 3 and 5 seasons of plate appearances during this window. They were league average over a span of 3-5 years during a sample of about 10. Crisp and Hill have 7 seasons. Rios has 9. So while these guys are all average by our best single offensive metric, Alex Rios is super average in that he produced average offense over a really long period of time. Let’s look at his career a little bit.
While Rios has been average on average, he has actually never been average in any one season. His most average season was 2008 in which he posted a 108 wRC+. What is kind of amazing is that none of the other guys on this list display a pattern much different from Rios. They vary in the degree to which they deviate from the 100 wRC+ line, but they all deviate a great deal. I haven’t taken the time to go searching for baseball’s most consistently average player, but I will someday. For now, Rios gets the title of baseball’s most average hitter over the last decade, but man, he’s done it in atypical fashion.
The Morning Edition (May 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holliday and Beltran homer behind a smooth performance by Shelby Miller
- Derek Holland dominates the Red Sox enroute to a 7-0 win
- David Wright homers off Kimbrel to send it to extras where the Mets win 7-5
- Felix Hernandez throws 8 shutout innings in Toronto
- AJ Burnett sharp again in 3-2 win over the Nats
- Kershaw flirts with a no-hitter, but loses it in the 6th ahead of a Posey walk-off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright takes the Cardinals north to face the Crew (4p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Pirates in his first start since experiencing forearm tightness (4p Eastern)
- Patrick Corbin and his 1.91 ERA head to SD to face the Padres (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which pitching performance did you most enjoy on Friday?
It probably wouldn’t surprise the astute fan that Carlos Santana is crushing the baseball right now. His .383/.468/.679 line produces a 215 wRC+. That’s pretty awesome. To give you a sense of how good that is, Babe Ruth only had a wRC+ higher than 215 four times and his career wRC+ is 197. Probably not sustainable, but damn impressive as he is a 130 wRC+ career hitter. Man, the Indians can hit. They’d be good if their rotation wasn’t terrible.
How Was The Game? (May 3, 2013)
Late blooming.
Tigers 4, Astros 3
The Tigers jumped out to an early lead in this one, scoring single runs in the 2nd and 4th to take a 2-0 lead, but the Astros came back and got to Doug Fister (4-0, 40 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.1 WAR) for 3 runs (2 earned) in a very strange 7th inning that featured scoring plays on an error and a peculiar infield hit. Otherwise, Fister was strong, striking out 4 and walking 1 in 6+ innings of work. Norris limited the Tigers on the other side and Smyly (2-0, 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.67 FIP, 0.7 WAR) shut down the Astros in relief of Fister in the 7th and 8th. It was uneventful as far as close games go aside from an iffy homerun review in the 4th inning, until Alex Avila strode to the plate in the 9th inning with the team down a run with Don Kelly standing on first. He worked the count to 3-0 and then took a strike before smashing the 3-1 pitch over the left centerfield fence for a much needed go-ahead homerun (Avila has 4 HR this year but only a 56 wRC+). The win improves the Tigers to 17-11 on the season and 2-0 on the roadtrip and they’ll be back at it tomorrow behind strikeout artist Max Scherzer (3-0, 31.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 1.4 WAR) trying to lock in a series win.
The Moment: Avila knocks a go-ahead 2 run homer in the 9th.
The Morning Edition (May 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Haren cruises through 8 to lead the Nats over the Braves 3-1
- Brewers try to rally back from a 6-0 deficit and come up short against the Cards
- Kendrick stays solid to push the Phils past the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller and Kyle Lohse do battle in the beer city (8p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw on the hill against the Giants (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe who leads the league in WAR?
The answer is Carlos Gomez who is trying to sustain a breakout campaign with a .372/.427/.638 line, good for 198 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR thanks to a 3.2 UZR. A good amount of the success is BABIP driven, but it’s still pretty impressive. How impressive? He’s only ever posted more than 2.0 WAR in a full season twice. It took him 26 games to do it in 2013.
How Was The Game? (May 2, 2013)
Late, but worth the wait.
Tigers 7, Astros 3
The Tigers traveled to Houston today to play an AL team for the first time and the small number of fans (16,000) who attended were treated to a close game. Rick Porcello (1-2, 26.1 IP, 7.18 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 0.1 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 solid innings, surrendering 3 runs on two homers while striking out 7 and walking none, while also allowing just 5 hits. He wouldn’t factor in the decision as he left the game down 3-2 before Martinez drove in Fielder in the 8th inning to tie the game at 3. Ortega, Benoit, and Putkonen held the Astros at bay while the Tigers threatened but didn’t score in innings 9 through 13, which set up an Austin Jackson lead off double in the 14th which begat two intentional walks followed by a go -ahead single by Don Kelly to make it 4-3 and a Matt Tuiasosopo double to make it 6-3 and a Jhonny Peralta sac fly to make it 7-3 and put the game out of reach. With the victory the Tigers improve to 16-11 on the season and have now won 7 of their last 9, not to mention their impressive 2-0 record in 14 inning games. They’ll be back at it later today behind Doug Fister (4-0, 34 IP, 2.38 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 0.9 WAR) in search of their 17th win.
The Moment: Kelly drives in Jackson to give the Tigers the lead in the 14th.
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers
The following post is something I’ve been toying with in one form or another for a long time and finally got around to crystallizing this afternoon. I’ve often made reference to pitchers being “Appointment Television” in various Morning Edition and other posts and I thought I’d take that a little further and outline exactly who I’m talking about.
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Stephen Strasburg
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Matt Moore
- Clay Buchholz
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez
- Jon Lester
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
How Was The Month?: Detroit Tigers April Report
Right on track.
15-11
This piece comes a day late, forgive me, but I had four or five posts yesterday and didn’t want to clog up the feed, so May 1st is part of April for one year only. It’s hard to be upset about anything after a 15-11 month which puts the team on pace for 93-94 wins and a third straight AL Central title, but there are always negative voices. Ignore them.
The Tigers offense is 8th in baseball with 104 wRC+ so far this year and have scored the 6th most runs of any team (127). They are 2nd in batting average (.279), 4th in OBP (.345), and 12th in slugging (.410), giving them the 6th best wOBA (.329) in the league. I don’t generally subscribe to the idea of clutch hitting with runners in scoring position, but if you’re interested, their OBP in those situations is .341, which is roughly what they’re doing across the board.
The defense, as you might suspect, hasn’t been great so far with the team posting a collective -12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) good for 27th in baseball and a -9.6 UZR which ranks the same. Early defensive numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size and Austin Jackson probably won’t post negative numbers over the course of the season, but Cabrera is already at -4 DRS this season and I think that’s probably true. I don’t think he’s necessarily gotten worse, but he is missing more close plays that he did last year. Hopefully that evens out.
Individually, as one would expect given the collective numbers, lots of Tigers are performing well early. Cabrera is off to a great start .371/.446/.571, 175 wRC+, and 1.2 WAR. Remember too that most of these WAR numbers are suppressed due to poor defensive numbers. Hunter has been a standout hitting .365/.405/.490, good for 145 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR. Peralta is hitting like a top 10 shortstop, turning in a .293/.336/.404 line during the first month of play and Jackson is doing well after a torrid opening week, delivering a .284/.352/.397 April.
Prince Fielder is also punishing the ball in 166 wRC+ fashion thanks to 7 HR and a .302/.420/.583 slash line. Infante is doing well for himself too with a 100 wRC+, making him a top 10 second basemen so far.
Alex Avila has started slowly, posting a wRC+ of just 50 so far, but that is at least partially driven by a very low .213 BABIP which should regress upward and erase some of the problem. Victor Martinez has been someone a lot of people were worried about as he is hitting .212/.279/.263 so far but his .236 indicates that luck will change. He’s hit a lot of balls hard that haven’t found holes.
But even if that didn’t impress you, the pitching will. The Tigers pitchers lead baseball with a 7.0 WAR, which is 1.5 WAR ahead of 2nd place. They have a league best 2.71 FIP and are striking out 9.84 batters per 9. Lots of people are worried about the bullpen, but thanks to a lot of strikeouts, they’re 6th best in the league in FIP.
The top four starters are delivering. Sanchez (1.34 FIP, 2.0 WAR), Verlander (2.11 FIP, 1.6 WAR), Scherzer (1.69 FIP, 1.4 WAR), and Fister (3.17 FIP, 0.9 WAR) are all top 20 starters so far and Drew Smyly is performing at relief ace levels (1.64 FIP, 0.6 WAR).
The Tigers lost a couple extra inning games that could have gone either way, so their 15-11 record doesn’t even reflect the quality of play. If the Tigers keep this up, they’ll be playing October baseball once again.
The Moment: Brayan Pena absorbs a collision from Justin Smoak to finish off a 14 inning win in Seattle.
New English D 