Category Archives: MLB Posts

Dynamic Standings Projection (April 17, 2013)

In case you missed it, last week we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a new column this week on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.

This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 16 games.

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The Morning Edition (April 17, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Phillies and Reds remain tied in the 9th inning as play was suspended with the score 0-0
  • In a wonderful display of patriotism, Yankee Stadium plays “Sweet Caroline” between innings of a 4-2 win
  • Braves hit five homeruns and improve to 12-1 on the season

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Justin Masterson takes on the Red Sox in Cleveland looking to build on strong start (7p Eastern)
  • Cards’ rookie Shelby Miller takes the hill against AJ Burnett and the Pirates (7p Eastern)
  • The brilliant and wild Matt Moore takes on the O’s (7p Eastern)
  • Clayton Kershaw is pitching (10p Eastern)
  • Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer face off in the battle for the soul of Fangraphs (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What’s the record for most games ahead of 2nd place for a team through 13 games? Braves have to be close. 4.5 ahead of the Mets and Nats as I write this.

Of note on Tuesday was hearing “Sweet Caroline” at Yankee Stadium in honor of those affected by the tragedy in Boston. That’s a relatively powerful statement of solidarity that should bring fear to the hearts of those responsible. Additionally, the Braves won a baseball game, which should not surprise us at this point. They’re 12-1 over their first 13 games but the only offensive star who is producing is Justin Upton. The other guys who are contributing are names like Evan Gattis, Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco, and, I kid you not, Ramiro Pena. Uggla, Simmons, Heyward, and the elder Upton are all struggling. The NL East should shudder at the thought of a Braves team in which all of those players are performing even reasonably well. I would also like to point out Edwin Jackson’s stat line for the season because it is just ridiculous. He’s 0-2 in 3 starts over 16.1 innings and has a 6.06 ERA which sounds awful. But he has an 11.02 K/9, 5.51 BB/9, and .260 FIP. Early season numbers mean very little, but that’s just silly. That’s a technical term, silly.

The Morning Edition (April 16, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • The joy of a Sox win on Patriot’s Day is marred by tragedy in Boston 
  • The Nats pound the Marlins behind a CG from Zimmerman
  • The Reds survive a tight one against the Phillies

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Braves (7p Eastern)
  • Barry Zito tries to keep the magic going against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
  • Chris Capuano makes his first start in place of Zach Greinke (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Will the teams who didn’t play Monday wear #42?

Baseball took a backseat on Monday after attacks killed and wounded many during the Boston Marathon. Our hearts are heavy for those who lost loved ones and who are currently fighting for their lives.  Boston isn’t a city that will stay down for long. For today, this Tigers fan says “Go Red Sox.”

The Morning Edition (April 15, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Clay Buchholz makes a run at his second no-hitter in a 5-0 win over the Rays
  • The Braves complete a sweep of the Nats with a 9-0 win
  • Halladay goes 8, gives up 1 run in a 2-1 win over the Marlins
  • The Giants outslug the Cubs in 10, win 10-7

What I’m Watching Today:

  • MLB celebrates Jackie Robinson day
  • Rays and Sox play a morning game on Patriot’s Day in Boston (11a Eastern)
  • Cliff Lee looks to stay sharp against the Reds (7p Eastern)
  • The Padres and Dodgers meet just three days after Quentin injures Greinke, but Quentin will begin serving his suspension and won’t be in the lineup (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Who will stand out on a day meant to honor the great #42?

Roy Halladay pitched deep into the game in Miami yesterday, temporarily quieting the whispers, but it was against one of the worst teams in the league, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. After two rough starts to get the season going, Halladay was much closer to his old self and should get a chance to fully correct his recent woes. The other big story on Sunday was the Braves completing a 3 games sweep of division rival Washington, who most, including the author, believe to be the best team in the league. Certainly one series doesn’t change my opinion of the clubs, but the Braves have played very well out of the gate and are putting early distance between themselves and the Nats. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, but every game is going to count and I’d rather be ahead than behind after two weeks.

Ahead today is the Padres and Dodgers game that will feature neither of the principals from last Thursday’s melee, but it should feature some tempers. I doubt we’ll see any beanballs given the cost of escalating the conflict further, but I expect the Dodger faithful will have something to say to the Padres as they take the field. Vin Scully will be on the mic at 10pm, try not to miss it.

It’s too early to make meaningful statistical arguments about performance, but Justin Upton and Prince Fielder are leading the MVP races over the first two weeks. In 12 games, Upton has 7 HR, a .348/.415/.891 slash line, and a 242 wRC+, good for 1.1 WAR. Fielder only has 4 HR, but his .429/.527/.833 line and 250 wRC+ are no less impressive alongside his 1.0 WAR. Like I said, it’s too early for these numbers to be predictive of anything, but both players have sustained the performances long enough to consider them noteworthy and impressive in their own rights. Many players are having good fortnights, but these two are leading the way.

Pitchingwise, it’s a bit more difficult to separate the players, but Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, and Harvey would be the arms I’d point to as the early year standouts. It’s too early to make much of it, but they, among others, have been the most fun to watch in the early goings.

The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
  • Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
  • Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
  • Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
  • Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?

The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.

The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
  • Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
  • Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
  • Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
  • Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
  • Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
  • Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
  • Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?

So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.

On Carlos Quentin, Zach Greinke, and Charging the Mound

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

By now I’m sure all of you have heard that Carlos Quentin was hit by Zach Greinke in last night’s game and proceeded to charge the mound, which resulted in a brawl that left Greinke with a broken collarbone.

Quentin obviously felt the pitch was intentional (it was an at-bat in a one run game, FYI). If you watch the video, he is hit, turns to Greinke to confront him, it appears Greinke says something, and then Quentin goes after him like a linebacker. Greinke drops his glove and assumes position to defend himself and then chaos happens and lots of people get ejected and upset.

Greinke is left injured, and his manager thinks Quentin should have to sit out until Greinke heals. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs argues why that particular punishment isn’t a great idea but we should all be able to agree that this type of behavior needs to be more heavily discouraged.

Let’s assume for a moment that Greinke’s pitch was intentional. I don’t believe it was, but let’s consider it that way because if we decide it wasn’t intentional, my point gets even easier to make.

I don’t defend a pitcher intentionally throwing at a batter, especially with intent to injure, but let’s look at the at bat.

greinke

 

The pitch that hit Quentin was six inches off the plate (about two baseball widths) and less than four feet off the ground. That certainly isn’t head hunting or blatantly intentional. At the very least, the best we can say is Greinke was delivering a purpose pitch. Maybe he was brushing Quentin back, but the count was 3-2, so that wouldn’t do a lot of good.

Quentin believes he and Greinke have history, except they’ve faced off 19 times since their last HBP together and Quentin has been hit more in his career than almost anyone else around. 91 batters have been hit in 2013, 90 have gone straight to first. Quentin was the only one who charged.

It’s hard for me to see how this pitch can be considered intentional and it’s hard for me to see how this pitch could be the most intentional of all 91 HBP in 2013 so far. I can see a player getting emotional and violent if a 95mph fastball came at their head, but this wasn’t anywhere close.

Quentin’s reaction is the problem. Charging the mound is for thugs and children who can’t control their actions. It’s undignified and it’s dangerous. Getting hit by a pitch that is six inches off the plate is a risk a person takes when they become a baseball player. Reacting to that occurrence by charging the mound, especially for someone who has been hit so many times, indicates a degree stupidity that needs to be corrected.

A lot of people are drawn to brawls in baseball for the history and desire for violence, but it has no place in the sport. It’s stupid. Grown men should not behave that way. Grown men should be able to control themselves. If Quentin was upset, he could have voiced that concern with Greinke, the umpires, or the league so that Greinke’s actions would be carefully reviewed. He, on the other hand, went Hobbesian on Greinke and took the law into his own hands and sought a Lord of the Flies type resolution. Greinke did something he didn’t like, so his response was to beat him up.

Literally, Quentin reacted to the pitch by assaulting Zach Greinke. If that happened in a shopping mall or in an office, Quentin would be charged with assault or would be fired. People in other professions are not allowed to violently attack their competitors.

I’m an academic. If someone criticizes my research, I am not allowed to throw a chair at them and beat their face in. That’s not acceptable adult behavior. I would be fired and would go to jail. Quentin will just get a few days suspension.

Athletes must be held to the same kind of standard when they step outside the rules of the game. Certainly, football players sign up for tackles and contact, just like baseball players sign up for double play collisions and fastballs coming toward them at 90 mph. But on field violence is not part of the game and should be dealt with accordingly.

If Carlos Quentin was an accountant, he would be out of a job today. It should be no different because he is a baseball player.

Now I know the rules in place won’t allow for that with Quentin and he will get the penalty that is typical for this behavior. But the rules need to change going forward so that people stop behaving like this. Any player who charges the mound should be banned for life, or at the very least, for the rest of the season.

Violence has no place in baseball and baseball players should be held to the same professional standards as everyone else. It is not okay to violently attack a coworker. This is not “part of the game” or “just someone defending themselves.” This was assault. It’s not good entertainment and it’s juvenile.

Baseball needs to clamp down on charging the mound before someone gets hurt.

Oh wait, someone just did.

The Morning Edition (April 12, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • Zach Greinke breaks his collarbone after a Carlos Quentin charges the mound after being hit by a pitch
  • The Giants come back from being down 5-0 to beat the Cubs at Wrigley 7-6
  • Felix gives up 10 hits enroute to a loss against the Rangers

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Jon Niese and the Mets meet old division foe Vance Worley at Target Field (8p Eastern)
  • The Blue Jays face the Royals in a battle of AL makeovers (8p Eastern)
  • Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for appointment viewing against the Dbacks (940p Eastern)
  • Yu Darvish faces the struggling Mariners (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Is Clayton Kershaw making a bid to unseat Verlander as baseball’s best starter?

Thursday brought us an abbreviated MLB schedule with just eight games (one of which was rained out) and resulted in MLB Network filling unaccounted for air time with a rerun of Intentional Talk hosted by Chris Rose and Kevin Millar. This leads me to my only idle musing for the day: how good does a network have to be for IT to be its worst program? That’s insane. It’s a solid show, but it’s their worst show. MLB Now, MLB Tonight, Quick Pitch, Clubhouse Confidential, The Rundown, etc are all the best in their class as far as sports programming goes. It’s no wonder they win so many Emmys.

I haven’t heard the timeline on the Greinke injury, but it’s a blow to the Dodgers who were counting on him to pitch at ace levels this season. It will probably only cost them a couple games in the standings in total due to the time he misses, but I would be concerned about how the injury might affect his delivery when he returns give its location. We should know more later today that will help clear up those questions.

Finally, 42 opens today nationwide. I’m looking forward to seeing Jackie Robinson immortalized further on the silver screen and am excited for young and casual fans to get a glimpse into one of the great baseball players of all time, who just happens to double as one of the most pivotal figures of the 20th century. But no pressure on the actors. I plan to review the film sometime in the next week or two.

The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
  • Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
  • Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
  • Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
  • Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
  • Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)

I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).

  • 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
  • 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
  • March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP

That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.

So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.

Dynamic Standings Projection (April 10, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

In case you missed it, today we’re launching our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here.

This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 9 games.

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