2013 Preseason Standings Projection

Predicting an entire season’s worth of baseball games accurately – that is 2,430 baseball games – is essentially impossible. We can make guesses, run computer simulations, watch spring training, and analyze offseason activity all we want, but the amount of uncertainty, randomness, and divine intervention is so great that you’re lucky to even get the order right in each division.

But we try because something about us makes us hungry from prediction. We want to know what is going to happen and we want to get angry about it and debate it and tell each other we’re terrible people because we disagree on how many wins the Orioles will have. It might be a terrible thing about humanity or it might be one of our endearing quirks. I’ll leave that up to you.

So without further delay, here is the official SABR Toothed Tigers Preseason Standings Projection. The methodology is simple. This is what I think based what I’ve read and seen about each team and it is informed at the margins by various statistical models of prediction.

2013 pre stand

These standings should not come as any surprise to those who have read our Power Rankings series this week, but there are some interesting deviations worth looking into.

Throughout the offseason I listed “Early 2013 Projections” with the Season in Review series and these are updated based on trades, signings, injuries, and a little adjustment because I originally had ten too many wins. I’ll have a post next month that predicts a postseason based on these standings and I’ll keep tabs on these projections throughout the season so we can see how well STT does. Feel free to sound off in the comments sections about what you believe to be the particular strengths and weaknesses of this projection.

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30 responses

  1. […] can read my AL Central preview here, my preseason power rankings here, and my standings prediction here, all of which point to my agreement with the conventional wisdom about the Tigers chances. I think […]

  2. […] February, I wrote up Preseason Power Rankings (30-21, 20-11, 10-1) and Win-Loss predictions for all thirty clubs. The next step in any process of this kind is to discuss how these […]

  3. […] In case you missed it, today we’re launching our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. […]

  4. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a new column this week on the far right that indicates the difference in […]

  5. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  6. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  7. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  8. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  9. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  10. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  11. […] the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings […]

  12. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  13. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  14. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  15. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  16. […] the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings […]

  17. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  18. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  19. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  20. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  21. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  22. […] the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings […]

  23. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  24. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  25. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  26. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  27. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  28. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  29. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

  30. […] our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the […]

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