Predicting an entire season’s worth of baseball games accurately – that is 2,430 baseball games – is essentially impossible. We can make guesses, run computer simulations, watch spring training, and analyze offseason activity all we want, but the amount of uncertainty, randomness, and divine intervention is so great that you’re lucky to even get the order right in each division.
But we try because something about us makes us hungry from prediction. We want to know what is going to happen and we want to get angry about it and debate it and tell each other we’re terrible people because we disagree on how many wins the Orioles will have. It might be a terrible thing about humanity or it might be one of our endearing quirks. I’ll leave that up to you.
So without further delay, here is the official SABR Toothed Tigers Preseason Standings Projection. The methodology is simple. This is what I think based what I’ve read and seen about each team and it is informed at the margins by various statistical models of prediction.
These standings should not come as any surprise to those who have read our Power Rankings series this week, but there are some interesting deviations worth looking into.
Throughout the offseason I listed “Early 2013 Projections” with the Season in Review series and these are updated based on trades, signings, injuries, and a little adjustment because I originally had ten too many wins. I’ll have a post next month that predicts a postseason based on these standings and I’ll keep tabs on these projections throughout the season so we can see how well STT does. Feel free to sound off in the comments sections about what you believe to be the particular strengths and weaknesses of this projection.