2013 Detroit Tigers Season Preview
Well folks, the time has come. Less than two weeks from now, the Tigers will be at Target Field taking on the Twins and getting the 2013 season under way. It has seemed like a quiet offseason for the defending AL champs, but they actually made some big moves by signing Torii Hunter to a two year deal and re-upping with Anibal Sanchez for five seasons.
The Tigers have two consecutive division titles under their belts and a pennant flying this season for their work thwarting the rest of the AL in 2012. With essentially the entire team coming back in addition to the aforementioned additions and a healthy Victor Martinez, all signs point to another big season for the Tigers. Things can go wrong, but the expectation surely is that the Tigers will repeat as AL Central champs.
You can read my AL Central preview here, my preseason power rankings here, and my standings prediction here, all of which point to my agreement with the conventional wisdom about the Tigers chances. I think they’re going to be very good and a force with which to be reckoned. Here’s why.
The Starting Pitching
The Tigers have six starters who belong in a major league rotation. The staff is led by Justin Verlander, who is the best pitcher in the game according to most, and backed up by three pitchers who can make a strong claim to #2 starter status: Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Those potential number twos are the strength of the rotation because it makes them extremely deep. It would surprise no one if any of those pitchers accomplished something close to a 4 WAR season (they’ve all done it before), and it would be incredible if they all managed to do it.
Think about this, Verlander is the oldest member of the rotation. The Tigers have three pitchers in their primes with a history of strong performance behind the game’s best starter. That’s pretty good.
And then there are Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly. Both of which deserve to start this season. I wrote here that I’d go with Porcello and he is making his case this Spring with an excellent strikeout to walk ratio and a much better breaking ball. To his credit, Smyly isn’t struggling either. It’s a good problem to have.
I would argue the Tigers have the best rotation in baseball and I can’t make a case for them being any worse than third entering the season. In the next two weeks, the Tigers are going to trade, send to the pen, or demote a pitcher capable of a 2-3 win season. That should be all you need to know.
The Lineup
At this point, it just sounds like I’m naming parts of a baseball team, but the lineup is very good. Austin Jackson was a top five AL outfielder last season and is joined by fellow top ten AL outfielder Torii Hunter at the top of the lineup. If that wasn’t enough, MVP and elite hitter Miguel Cabrera follows them, sitting ahead of Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez.
If there is a better first five hitters in the sport, I haven’t found them. Behind that force lurks the underrated Andy Dirks, the on-base machine Alex Avila, and the poised for a bounce back Jhonny Peralta. Omar Infante will hit ninth and hopefully prevent anyone whining about second base this season.
The Tigers are blessed with exceptional depth on the bench, but the overall quality of the lineup is impressive. They can’t replace many of their players, but they should be able to weather one serious injury at a time without much problem. Every player in the Tigers lineup has either been an All-Star or had an All-Star type season very recently with the exception of Dirks. The infield defense is sub par, but with a much improved outfield defense and strikeout inclined starters, they can probably outslug any problems.
Experience
On occasion, pundits overrate the value of experience over talent, but in the Tigers case, it should help. The Tigers have been to the playoffs in consecutive seasons with a very similar roster and the experience of having worked through long seasons with trials and tribulations should play to their advantage. The Tigers players should be well conditioned for October baseball after seeing what it takes to keep themselves in top condition over the last two seasons deep into the Fall.
The Leadership
Again, this is a quality that is somewhat controversial, but the Tigers have a lot of personalities in their clubhouse that will nurture a winning environment. Losing streaks will be handled appropriately and there shouldn’t be any infighting or problems. Victor Martinez’s presence will be welcomed back this season along with the addition of Hunter and the ever-present Jim Leyland, whom everyone seems to adore. Experience and leadership are hard to measure, but if they matter at all, they should work in the Tigers favor.
The Bullpen, Even the Bullpen
I wrote at length recently about why Rondon will succeed as the closer and why it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t. Benoit, Dotel, Coke, Downs, Below, Putkonen, and others are all available out of the pen. The Tigers don’t have anyone like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, but they have many, many pitchers who could be solid, reliable relievers. The position is volatile and unpredictable, but the Tigers are well stocked with potential arms in the pen. They won’t lead the league in bullpen-ness, but they won’t be bad.
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I don’t think it is too bold to say that the Tigers are among the best teams, on paper, entering the 2013 season. I would argue they are the second best team, behind Washington. Things can always go wrong, but they go wrong for every team. I always hedge and say that so long as the Tigers are no less unfortunate than their competitors, they should win the division quite easily.
The Royals and Indians are better and the White Sox aren’t pushovers, but the Tigers are the class of the Central. With upheaval in the East and a strong West, the road to another pennant will be trying, but it is certainly within the Tigers’ grasp.
With elite level star power in Verlander, Cabrera, Fielder, and others, it’s hard not to dream on the Tigers 2013 potential. They have it all, including a chip on their shoulders after a poor showing in the Fall Classic.
For the Tigers, this could be the year that the roar is officially restored.
Happy 10th Birthday, 2003 Tigers!
It was ten years ago that the worst baseball team of the last generation, perhaps of the last half century, began their season in earnest. Here are the facts.
The team, managed by Alan Trammell, went 43-119. They scored 591 runs and allowed 928. They finished a whopping 47 games out of first place in the AL Central. Somehow, the Tigers still outdrew Tampa Bay in 2003.
But it was so much more than the bare facts. It was year two of the Dombrowski administration and year one of the three year experiment with Trammell at the helm. It was the bottom of the bottom.
119 losses.
The only offensive player to post higher than 1.0 WAR was Dmitri Young (2.1). The position players, as a whole, posted a negative 0.7 WAR. The only team of position players to be worse in my lifetime was the 1998 Twins (-2.0).
The pitching was better, if you can call it that. The pitchers combined for a 3.8 WAR, which is only 12th worst since 1990. But for perspective, let’s remember that 25 individual pitchers posted WARs of 3.8 or higher last season.
That’s really terrible.
Let’s add a little context. Who was this team? Who played the most at each position? Ladies and gentleman, your 2003 Detroit Tigers!
Catcher: Brandon Inge
First Base: Carlos Pena
Second Base: Warren Morris
Shortstop: Ramon Santiago
Third Base: Eric Munson
Left Field: Craig Monroe
Center Field: Alex Sanchez
Right Field: Bobby Higginson
Designated Hitter: Dmitri Young
I don’t know, that isn’t so bad. If I was evaluating that offense, I’d consider them one of the worst four teams in the league, but I don’t think I’d put them down for 119 losses or anything. The pitching staff?
Nate Cornejo, Mike Maroth, and Jeremy Bonderman pitched full seasons and Adam Bernero, Gary Knotts, Matt Roney, Wil Ledezma, Nate Robertson, Chris Mears, and Shane Loux all made several starts. Some of those guys had decent runs in their careers, but none of them happened during 2003. If this was my rotation in 2013, I would probably be looking for a new one.
So these names are certainly a blast from the past. Lots of Tigers from the days before the Tigers were Verlander and Cabrera.
The 2003 Tigers were very terrible. It was sad and comical and a mess. But there is another side of the story that we often divorce from this team.
This was the beginning of the baseball renaissance in Detroit. It was this terrible season that earned the Tigers the #2 pick in the 2004 draft (At this time, the first pick alternated leagues so the Padres went first).
With that pick, the Tigers chose Justin Verlander and everything began to change.
Dombrowski chose Verlander, who is now the Tigers ace. They signed Pudge Rodriguez that offseason and traded for Carlos Guillen. Both played major roles in the Tigers resurgence.
Then Magglio Ordonez came to town. The Tigers took a chance on him when no one wanted to and he rewarded them greatly. And then there was Kenny Rogers and Jim Leyland. And breakout seasons from Inge and Granderson. Monroe and Thames.
DD took Maybin and Miller in the 2005 and 2006 drafts and later turned them into Miguel Cabrera.
A magical run in 2006 came before a string of extended success. The Tigers have finished below .500 just once since that 2006 season.
The seeds of the current powerhouse, big spending, contending Tigers were planted among the ashes of the 2003 Tigers. The hapless, terrible 2003 Tigers gave us Justin Verlander, and soon, a real winner.
Mike Illitch brought in Dave Dombrowski who showed Mr. I what a winner could look like in Detroit. Now Illitch backs up the money truck and fans storm the turnstiles. Detroit is a place for premier free agents. Fans have astronomical expectations each season and anything short of 90 wins seems like a disaster. People revere the Old English D instead of pity it now.
This wonderful run of baseball at Comerica Park happened for a lot of reasons, but the 2003 Tigers deserve some credit. They were so bad that things finally started to change. Verlander through the draft. Pudge through a mitzvah of his own. Maggs as the marriage of a broken player and a team looking for a savior.
Then the floodgates opened. Cabrera and Fielder and Scherzer and Fister. Anibal Sanchez, Torii Hunter, Alex Avila.
Just ten years ago, the Tigers were drawing poorly and losing more games than any American League team ever had. But then, as it usually does in times of great struggle, everything changed.
Maybe that never happens if the Tigers hadn’t bottomed out like they did. We’ll never know. But as we “celebrate” the ten year anniversary of the worst team I’ll ever cheer for, let’s also remember it was that devastation that led to this great era of Tigers baseball.
The Tigers enter the 2013 season as the division favorites and World Series contenders after back to back playoff berths and an AL Pennant, but they do so on the backs of a 119 loss club that came ten years before.
Here’s to the 2003 Tigers. Happy birthday, guys.
The Nine Best American League Starting Pitchers for 2013
The previous eight weekends have featured lists of The Nine best players at each of the main field positions for the 2013 MLB season. You can access these lists here all season long and I will provide status reports of these lists as we proceed through 2013.
There will be no list for relief pitchers because there are so many of them and their range of performance is so small that making a list isn’t very interesting. There will also be no DH list because there just aren’t enough full time DHs to make it worthwhile. Only 15 teams can have a DH and some of them employ platoons. Picking 9 DHs out of like 13 guys seems silly.
But starting pitching is a place of great interest and I struggled to decide how to break it down. With more than 150 players receiving starts in a given season on the hill versus a number closer to 30 for the field positions, I’ve decided to break it in half. I thought about lefties and righties, but decided American League and National League would be more fun.
Here, without more nonsense, are The Nine best American League starting pitchers for 2013 according to SABR Toothed Tigers. The list is difficult to make because there are many excellent candidates, so as always, don’t get too worked up about it.
9. Max Scherzer (Tigers)
Scherzer will turn 29 during the upcoming season, which will be the fifth full one of his career. The strikeouts shot up last season and he kept his walk rate below 3.00 per 9 for a second straight season. He had some arm issues late in the season, but pitched well enough in the playoffs to make us think the winter off was enough to reset his aching body. He’s a flyball and strikeout pitcher, which will work well with the Tigers defense and last season was his most complete effort in the sense that he didn’t go through long stretches of poor performance. I still wonder if he can repeat his delivery and keep his awkward mechanics in line, but if he can continue on the path he started last year, he has a shot to be a force in the AL.
8. R.A. Dickey (Blue Jays)
Dickey is coming off two and a half very good seasons and an NL Cy Young. We can’t worry too much about his age given his knuckleballing ways, but we should worry that he’s moving to a less pitchers’ friendly Rogers Centre and slightly better AL East. Dickey won’t do quite as well under those conditions, but we can control for those context type factors. I don’t think he’ll be a Cy Young again, but his ability to make the ball dance should be enough to keep him on this list for another season.
7. C.C. Sabathia (Yankees)
Sabathia showed signs of aging in 2012 for the first time after 11 above average to great seasons leading up to it. He’s still a workhorse with great control and hasn’t had an ERA above 3.38 since 2005, with much of that time spend in the tough AL East. CC is probably making his final appearance on this list for his career, but he will remain one of the best pitchers in the AL for 2013.
6. Doug Fister (Tigers)
Fister had a higher WAR than all but 12 AL pitchers last season, despite only making 26 starts due to a nagging oblique injury during the first half of the season. Had he pitched at the same rate over 34 starts as he did over 26, he would have easily been a top nine pitcher last season. There is no reason to think anything but injuries would stand in his way. The strikeout rate is on the way up and his control has been excellent in a Tigers uniform. He’s only 29 and could easily be poised for another fine season. He also happens to be my favorite pitcher to watch. His mix of modesty and control with great fastball movement makes for excellent viewing. He’s also super tall. That’s fun too.
5. David Price (Rays)
The reigning Cy Young winner in the AL is fifth on this list, not because I don’t like him, but because I like his opponents more. Price has three straight 4.0+WAR seasons and is right in the middle of his prime. All signs point to another great year from Price, but I think he’ll be just shy of Cy Young conversation in 2013.
4. Matt Moore (Rays)
So when I previewed the AL East, I said Moore would be the Cy Young of the division. In doing so, I also decided he would be a better pitcher than his teammate David Price. Perhaps that was foolish, but I’m bullish on Moore and think people overlook him. He was a top three prospect entering last season and had made an excellent late season cameo in 2011. A year of control issues later, and everyone seems to be looking past him. I’m not. Moore is not yet 24 and has a lot of developing left to do. He throws gas from the left side with two solid offspeed pitches. He was a solid #3 starter in his first big league season. I don’t see any reason to think he can’t make the leap to #1 a year after he was the best prospect in the league.
3. Yu Darvish (Rangers)
Darvish tied Price last season for third in the AL in WAR and should still be on his way up. The strikeout rate was superb and if he can limit the walks at all, he’ll be an elite starter. After a year in the states, he should be poised for a better season because he won’t be adjusting to life in America and can focus solely on pitching. The stuff is great and his first year of results matched that.
2. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Felix is about to turn 27 and already has 38.3 career WAR and four straight 230 IP + seasons. The velocity ticking down is the only thing to worry about with the game’s richest pitcher, but he’s shown the ability to be effective at all speeds and is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro. He’s an ace and a stud and any word you can think of to describe a top pitcher. The only thing he isn’t is number one on this list.
A photo from directly above the author’s desk.
1. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
I’m not sure what needs to be said about Verlander. His first three seasons were very good and his last four have been phenomenal. He has a ROY, Cy Young, MVP, and has never missed a start in seven seasons. He’s entering his age thirty season as the game’s best and more reliable starting pitching. With four above average to elite pitches, the two time no-hitter thrower is every hitter’s worst nightmare.
How would you rank the AL’s arms? Sound off. Check back next weekend for the NL list.
Five Reasons Why I Can’t Get Into the World Baseball Classic
Given my intense love for baseball and my somewhat obnoxious patriotism, one would assume I’m living and dying with every pitch of the World Baseball Classic. But I’m just not. I’m having trouble caring a whole lot about it, and it’s time to explore why.
The tournament is supposed to expand the game’s market outside the U.S., but in order to be relevant, it also has to attract U.S. fans, and I should be an easy target. But I don’t care that much. Here are some reasons why this might be, and how we might be able to fix them.
1. It’s March
Don’t get me wrong, baseball is wonderful in any month and season, but the fact that it is March has many drawbacks for this kind of event. First, a lot of players are begging off because they aren’t ready for the season and don’t want to risk injury. If the WBC happened midseason, it might make certain players more likely to participate. They may still not want to do it, but I’m sure at least some players would play who otherwise didn’t. And it’s hard to really care about the WBC when the world’s best players aren’t there. No Verlander, Kershaw, Price, Hernandez, Lee, Trout, Harper, McCutchen, Posey, etc. It’s hard to think of this as anything but glorified exhibition when the U.S. is starting Ryan Vogelsong in an elimination game. Second, even if players were willing to play in March, they aren’t in game shape. If we really want to showcase baseball, don’t we want Justin Verlander and Mike Trout playing in midseason form? We have Spring Training so players can get their timing and get ready for the season, I don’t want to watch players compete for world glory who haven’t had more than 20 ABs yet.
2. The Rules are Silly
I’m mostly talking about these pitch count rules that limit starters to a number of pitches in each round and restrict relievers to certain resting periods given how many pitches they threw the day before. This is an artifact of the tournament taking place in March, and it’s stupid. If your ace pitcher is dominating, he has to come out in the first round after like 75 pitches. How can we really get excited about the WBC when the rules make the game so different from how it should be played? It’s basically the Little League World Series with older players.
3. We Should Be Cheering Against the United States
What? Remember how I said the purpose of the WBC is to expand baseball into other markets? Well it doesn’t do much good if the U.S., Venezuela, and Japan win all the time. Upstart teams like the Netherlands or Italy making deep runs into the WBC would be ideal. We want fans who don’t follow baseball to start following baseball. That doesn’t happen if the countries that already like baseball beat their countries 11-2. So it’s hard for me to get excited about the WBC because the best outcome on the whole is not the outcome I wish to see personally.
4. There is Other Baseball Going On
Specifically, Spring Training. My team is preparing for the season, and I’m interested in following roster battles and player preparations. It’s not that I don’t want more baseball, it’s that my attention is split. Sure I’d like to follow WBC games, but the WBC should be the only game in town when it’s going on. It’s once every four years, let’s take a week or ten days off in July so that it’s the only thing on the menu. We can all watch the WBC and only the WBC. Even if the other problems didn’t exist, it’s better for the WBC to not have to compete with the start of MLB.
5. I Love My Team More Than My Country
I hope I never run in a Republican primary now that I’ve put that in writing, but I’m pretty sure that it’s the truth. A friend of mine asked me why Verlander wasn’t pitching in the WBC and I told him the standard reasons he gave when he decided against it. And you know what? I’m glad Verlander didn’t play in the Classic. I’m glad Sanchez and Cabrera got knocked out early. I don’t want Fielder or Scherzer or Jackson playing in the WBC because I don’t want them to get hurt doing something other than playing for the Tigers. I care way more about the Tigers 2013 season than I do about the baseball pride of my country. It matters more to me that the Tigers are ready for the season than that my country does well, so I selfishly don’t want my favorite players involved. I imagine many feel the same way. I lamented about that the game’s best don’t play in the WBC, which makes the tournament cheap, but I’m glad that’s the case. I’d rather the U.S. lose to freaking Canada in the WBC than they win at the cost of one of my team’s players getting injured because he played in games before he was ready. This might make me a bad American, but I think it makes me an excellent fan.
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So it’s just hard for me to get excited about the WBC. To solve this, let’s move the tournament to the All-Star Break and skip the game every four years. We can shift the format to limit play to 10-14 days rather than closer to twenty. We also need to incentivize players to participate and get rid of the silly rules that turn the games into farcical approximations of baseball. Finally, there needs to be a reason to cheer for the U.S. above patriotism. Baseball is better off if a new market beats the U.S., so there needs to be a reason why that isn’t so. I’m not sure what that is. Maybe if we let the previous winner host the next WBC, so there is actual benefit to winning in terms of start times and in person viewing chances.
I love baseball and I’m glad there are quasi-meaningful games on right now, but I just can’t be bothered to care a whole lot. It makes no difference to me who wins and it’s not like we’re watching real world class baseball. Lots of the game’s best players are participating, but many aren’t. If people in Italy don’t get to watch Verlander and Trout, what the hell are we having a WBC for anyway? This should be a showcase, but instead it feels like a joke. Plus, good grief there is way too much bunting. Like an absurd amount of bunting.
Love the WBC? Tell me why I’m wrong. Hate it? Agree with me in writing. Join the discussion in the comments section or on Facebook/Twitter. Also, I’m given to understand people sometimes communicate in person, so you could always try just talking about the WBC with your social group.
The Over/Under Guide to the 2013 Detroit Tigers
Many people like betting on sports and many people also like talking about sports as if they were betting on sports despite having no actual intention of doing so. This is a post for both types of people, but with more emphasis on the latter because some of these are quite specific and probably couldn’t get much action.
Below are my 2013 Detroit Tigers Over/Unders. Comment and share this post and let’s get a little contest going. I have set the numbers at where I think they are most likely to fall, meaning I believe it is equally likely that the outcome will be over and under and I am indifferent as to which to choose.
1. Team Wins (93.5)
2. Justin Verlander Strikeouts (249.5)
3. Austin Jackson Diving Catches (0.5)
4. Longest Winning Streak (7.5)
5. Longest Homerun Hit by a Tiger (448.5 ft)
6. Times FSD Shows Rod Allen Charging the Mound in Japan (1.5)
7. Times Mario and Rod Make Reference to Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez’s clubhouse value (140.5)
8. Cliches Doug Fister Uses in Postgame Interviews (724.5)
9. Miguel Cabrera Homeruns (36.5)
10. Times Alex Avila Gets Hit with a Foul Tip (∞)
11. Longest Rain Delay During a Non-Suspended Game (2:45.5 hours)
12. Comerica Park Sellouts (37.5)
13. Justin Verlander Near No-Hitters [defined as six or more no-hit innings] (1.5)
14. Games Played by Victor Martinez Not at DH (10.5)
15. Highest Batting Average for a Tiger Who Qualifies (.325)
16. Extra Inning Games (8.5)
17. Walk-Off Wins (4.5)
18. Max Scherzer’s K-Rate (10.5)
19. Lynn Henning Hate Tweets About Jhonny Peralta (85.5)
20. Date at Which Bandwagon Fans First Jump Ship (May 11)
21. Playoff Clinching Date (September 21)
22. Stolen Bases for Team Leader (19.5)
23. Number of Times Tom Brookens Pulls a Gene Lamont (2.5)
24. Tigers All-Stars (5.5)
25. Tigers Players with UZR’s > 4.0 (1.5)
26. Times Mario and Rod Discuss Non-Baseball Topics at Length (5.5)
27. Tigers Grand Slams (4.5)
28. Starts for Andy Dirks (120.5)
29. Number of Fans At Game 162 [Played in Miami] (9,850.5)
30. Games that Will Be Fun (160.5)
Post in the comments with you bets or on Facebook or Twitter. The winner will have next year’s contest named after them!
Tigers Release Brennan Boesch
Today, the Tigers parted ways with OF Brennan Boesch after three seasons. Boesch was released when it became clear that he would not have a place on the team and it was still early enough to save on his $2.3 million salary. The Tigers will now owe him less than $500,000 for 2013. (Boesch signed with the Yankees on 3/15)
There were trades suitors for Boesch this offseason, but none who were willing to offer what the Tigers were searching for, and Dave Dombrowski decided to give Boesch a shot to make someone else’s roster this Spring.
Boesch was many things, but he’ll always be a case study in fan misperception. Boesch has and always will be a flawed player. His approach at the plate is poor and his defense is bad. But man does he have power. And for periods of time, he flashed the ability to make good contact. But he was streaky and it never lasted.
He burst onto the scene with such fury in 2010 that fans thought that Boesch was the real Boesch. It wasn’t. Prior to 2010, he had never been the brilliant player he was during that half season run, and it showed in the second half. In 2011, he recovered some from the rough end to 2010, but missed the end of the season with a thumb injury.
In 2012, he was one of the worst big league regulars in the sport, posting a -1.3 WAR. He never walked, struck out too much, and couldn’t overcome those shortcomings because he didn’t hit for power and played ugly defense.
Boesch was never much of prospect and was generally on a fourth outfielder track prior to a great first half in 2010. So many saw that and only that. They saw him as something that he wasn’t, so he came crashing down. Which isn’t his fault. The expectations were too high after that three month run. He could never live up to them.
But Boesch had some glorious moments and big hits. He made diving catches in a clunky, ungraceful way that made you want to cheer and laugh at the same time. By all accounts, he’s a good dude too. He speaks Spanish with his teammates who struggle with English and gets along with his brothers in arms on the whole. He’s from Rod Allen’s hometown, so Rod Allen loves him a little extra.
The female Tigers fans also seemed to fancy Boesch for his boyish charm and blonde locks. All in all, there are worse things in the world than playing professional baseball in a city that loves you. Many, many worse things.
So I’m sorry to see Boesch go. I was never a believer in his talent, but I badly wanted him to prove me wrong. I’d eat all the crow in the world for another magical Brennan Boesch streak. I imagine someone will give Boesch a shot just for his power. The Yankees could probably benefit from taking a flyer. I hope he has a few more good weeks in him, even if he doesn’t have many great years.
Boesch was a frustrating player at times, but always seemed like someone worth cheering for. We at SABR Toothed Tigers wish him the best of luck and look forward to seeing him again.
On a final note, because this won’t ever be relavent again. Brennan Boesch and Andy Dwyer (from NBC’s Parks and Rec) might be the same person. Think about it.
Five Things to Worry About
Many people have worried a lot this winter about Bruce Rondon as the closer, but they shouldn’t. They’ve worriedly about Porcello and Smyly over stuffing the rotation, but they shouldn’t.
Perhaps people just like to worry? In that case, here are five better things to worry about this Spring Training.
5. Jim Leyland not getting his nicotine fix in light of new anti-smoking laws.
4. Doug Fister bumping his head on the dugout ceiling.
3. Alex Avila standing near flammable substances, because one time, sparks literally came off his mask.
2. Andy Dirks needing a new dress shirt, because is neck is way out of proportion to his body.
1. Rod Allen developing a Justin Verlander meets Miguel Cabrera level man crush on Torii Hunter.
Needless to say, I think people worry too much. But if you insist on worrying, let’s worry about important things.
A Relevant and Important Graph
My desire not to bring my computer on an airplane has resulted in this post. Writing long, expansive articles on the topics of the day is my usual game, but the occasional pithy post from my cell phone is also part of the STT experience.
It gets a little worse given that I didn’t even develop this graph. I’m re-posting someone else’s work from last season in place of what should be real content. For this I apologize and hope the importance of this image makes up for it.
Baseball returns in just three weeks!
Welcome to SABR Toothed Tigers!
Hello and welcome to the pages of SABR Toothed Tigers, the Tigers themed, stat-friendly website that brings you coverage of major league baseball that is both sophisticated and humorous. I, the editor, have given the entire staff the day off to celebrate my in-laws 40th wedding anniversary. Click on the About tab above to see why that last sentence was humorous!
While we take today off, why don’t you check out some of the things STT has to offer. We have tons of 2012 Recaps, 2013 Predictions, and other fun series like The Book on… and The Nine. We also do ballpark reviews, baseball and culture posts, a growing library of Stats of the Week (which are updated weekly during the season), and Goofy Leaderboards.
And we, of course, have tons of baseball analysis. We have many posts on the Tigers and MLB at large to peak your interest, including our most read article ever about the cancellation of ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast.
If you’re into that kind of thing, we also write comedic posts that border on satire and intersect with other words that mean satire. These include an essay on Justin Verlander being baseball’s worst hitter and a request for Jim Leyland to join Twitter.
Please peruse the site and see what we have to offer. We hope you like what you see and would love feedback about the types of posts you’d like to see in the future. Share the site with a friend, or an enemy, we don’t mind.
This site, as you can read about in this inaugural essay, is a place to communicate about something we love. The Tigers. Baseball. Information. Lightheartedness. Optimism.
It’s also a place to come when the rest of the world is annoying the crap out of you. That’s what I do at least. When my other life bores or frustrates me, I write about baseball and it makes me feel better.
I hope it makes you feel better too.
The Nine Best Right Fielders for 2013
When I started this series eight weeks ago, I didn’t immediately think that right field was obviously the deepest position in baseball, but after working to rank The Nine best players at each position it is extremely obvious. The top seven players on this list have MVP potential and I left guys off this list who are really good players.
I wasn’t picking between a bunch of question marks for #9, I was choosing among guys who I think are all very talented and who will have good seasons. Again, this list is of players projected to play right field for 2013, so position changes are taken into account. You’ll find Ben Zobrist and Josh Hamilton among this class of players settling into right this year.
My apologies to newly minted Indian Nick Swisher who was an outfielder when I wrote the first basemen list and a first basemen when I wrote the right field list. If Swisher has a big season, this is why he’s not on either list. If he has a bad season, I totally saw it coming.
9. Ichiro (Yankees)
Ichiro, despite his age, still plays great defense in right field, hits for high average, and runs the bases well. He should also see an uptick in power with a friendlier ballpark and should get a little help from a slightly better lineup around him. It would have been a lot better, but all of the Yankees are hurt. He’s not the MVP he once was, but I’m buying a very solid season from Ichiro in the Bronx.
8. Torii Hunter (Tigers)
Hunter had a huge season hitting between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in 2012, so in choosing his next destination, he searched for a similarly cushy gig. And found it. He’ll hit between Austin Jackson (STT #1 CF) and Miguel Cabrera (STT #1 3B) and will play next to slight Trout downgrade Jackson in the outfield. Hunter had a big season last year, and while he’s not likely to match it, modest regression still earns him a place on this list with his mix of moderate power, speed, and defense.
7. Josh Hamilton (Angels)
Hamilton is baseball’s fragile giant. He’s shown, at times, flashes of historic talent and, at other times, flashes of unparalleled failure. He has impressive power and great raw skills, but has some of the worst plate discipline in a sport that includes Delmon Young. He has health issues and a history of off the field issues (i.e. drugs, alcohol, vision issues, energy drink addition). For my money, he has the widest possible range of outcomes of any player in the league. Hamilton hitting 50 HR seems equally as likely to me as him hitting .210. The upside is there, but age and fragility work against him. Plus there is an effort issue, as showcased by his utter lack of interest in playing baseball last September. Man, I just don’t know.
6. Carlos Beltran (Cardinals)
Beltran is not the defensive and baserunning star he once was, but he is still an extremely talented player when healthy. In seasons in which he has player 100 or more games, he has always posted a 3 WAR or better and has at times, approached 8 WAR. He’s on the downswing of a great career (Tell that to Mets fans!) and should be good for another great year if he remains healthy.
5. Jay Bruce (Reds)
Bruce hits for power and he walks. Those are two valuable qualities in a player, even if he is closer to .250 than .300 most seasons. The defensive numbers are a little all over the place, but he has 134 HR before his 26th birthday. That’s a good recipe for success and he should have it hitting behind the great Joey Votto.
4. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)
If Joey Bats hadn’t missed half of 2012 with a wrist injury, an injury that is somewhat correlated with a loss in power, he’d probably be at the top of this list. The fact that he is fourth tells you just how good right field is right now. A healthy Bautista is a 40-50 HR guy with the ability to walk at a Bondsian rate while avoiding gaudy Dunnian strikeout numbers. He’s nothing special on defense or on the bases, but he is versatile and an absolute monster at the plate.
3. Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins)
Stanton has as much raw power as anyone in the game and puts in on display regularly between the lines. He’s a very good defender and he takes his walks at the plate. He’s a great young player, with an emphasis on both great and young separately. That is to say, he’s still very young. But he strikes out a ton and doesn’t do much for me on the bases. That doesn’t make him a bad player, it just keeps him from the top of the list. I’m also a believer in lineup protection more than most saber-guys and think it is especially real at the extremes. There is nobody even closer to Stanton’s level on the Marlins and he will be pitched around a lot. That doesn’t exactly hurt his rate stats, but it will drop the raw production and the frustration with his situation might have a slightly negative effect on his overall performance in 2013 before he gets traded in November.
2. Ben Zobrist (Rays)
The only reason Zobrist is likely no longer baseball’s most underrated player (Alex Gordon?) is because people like me have been talking him up long enough that it has finally caught on. He’s a great defender, a good baserunner, and a very good hitter. The plate discipline is excellent and his versatility makes me blush. He is an above average player at six or seven positions and hasn’t player fewer than 151 games since becoming a regular four years ago. He’s durable, he’s versatile, and he knows the strike zone. If you know anything about the type of players I most like to cheer for, you would rightly suspect that I would lose my mind if the Tigers found a way to acquire him.
1. Jason Heyward (Braves)
I’ll confess that I wasn’t a Heyward believer after his breakout 2010 season and felt super proud of myself for calling his 2011 regression. Didn’t I look silly in 2012? Heyward has a few trouble spots in that his plate discipline is actually getting worse each season, but he hits for power, plays elite defense, and runs the bases extremely well. On offense alone, he’s in the middle of this list, but he’s so good in the field and on the bases that he vaults himself up to the top. He’s also only 23 and has three seasons under his belt. He’s poised to lead the Braves back to the fake playoffs or better in 2013 with the Upton brothers to his right, and looks to be baseball’s best right fielder in the process.
What do you think? How does your top four look? Sound off in the comments section.
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