Ten Answers To Questions You’ll Ask During Game 1
I love the MLB playoffs. They’re awesome, but they don’t lend themselves to a lot of marco-analysis. We’re mostly breaking down individual plays and games. That’s great, just different. I would suggest my skills are more catered to analyzing trends and seasons and stuff rather than individual events, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like doing it. Here, I’d like to be a little more casual, mostly because the playoffs are fun and you don’t want to think too much when you have to stay up until 1am.
Below I present 10 answers to questions you will ask tonight.
1. Wait, Bartolo Colon is paid to be a professional athlete?
Yes. But now I’m thinking about looking up video of him covering first base.
2. Why did someone let TBS cover the playoffs?
So, ESPN wouldn’t agree to move Monday Night Football to ESPN2 during the playoffs and Fox didn’t want to lose their entire Fall lineup. There isn’t really anyone else who could outbid TBS, so here we are. Things will get better when FS1 gets some games next year, even if that’s barely a step up. Just grit your teeth and deal with it. We’re all in this together.
3. What’s a good place to get companion coverage?
Twitter is great, but I’ve been enjoying having the FanGraphs live chats up as well.
4. How do you prepare to stay awake late into the night on a Friday?
Sheer will? I don’t know, I’m already exhausted from working and watching baseball this week and the game doesn’t start for 5 hours. The adrenaline will kick in if the game is close, but if the Tigers get a big lead my wife will be asleep, literally, immediately.
5. Is the Tigers bullpen a serious concern in the playoffs?
It’s not good to be without Rondon, but Porcello is going to be a huge advantage down there and Fister could/should throw an inning tonight. I’m not really that worried so long as Leyland uses them semi-correctly. I would prefer the Tigers have a stronger lefty behind Smyly than Alvarez, but for some reason they have soured on Downs.
6. Will the Tigers defensive and baserunning issues cause problems in October?
I don’t really think so. The Tigers, for my money, aren’t bad at these things through mistakes, they’re bad through lack of ability. What I mean is that they don’t boot the ball and have a lot of TOOBLANs, but rather just don’t get to balls and don’t take extra bases. I think miscues are amplified in October, but otherwise I think defensive deficiencies have similar effects in the regular season and playoffs.
7. Which Tiger do you think has the big series?
Omar Infante. Seems right.
8. How do you get the most out of Cabrera with his injury issues?
We’ll have to see how he’s doing after the five day break, but it’s just something you live with. At some point you move him to DH and try Martinez at third, but we aren’t there yet. That said, I want to see Martinez taking grounders at third. Can’t be caught off guard.
9. Are the late season hitting woes a concern?
Not one bit. Meaningless. I’m serious, means nothing.
10. Who is the key to tonight’s game?
Well the stupid answers are Cabrera and Scherzer, but Avila/Martinez/Fielder are really important because Colon has a pretty serious platoon split. Lefties do much better, so you want to see those guys deliver.
Enjoy the game, and feel free to Tweet at us tonight during the game (@NeilWeinberg44). I’ve got access to some cool statistical tools, so I’ll likely be posting some fun numbers during the game.
The Tigers Hitter Bartolo Colon Fears
Full disclosure, batter versus hitter matchup stats aren’t very predictive. First, the samples are almost always too small for the numbers to provide meaningful data about what will happen in the future. They tell us what happened, but not what will happen. Second, the matchups are usually spread out across many seasons so the matchups in 2007 and 2013 are not really even between the same players. Players change, after all.
That said, now that we’re into the playoffs and we need to micro-analyze things, let’s just take a quick look at how each of the Tigers stack up against Colon in their careers.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torii Hunter | 63 | 58 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 10 | .241 | .302 | .448 | .750 |
| Ramon Santiago | 28 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .423 | .444 | .615 | 1.060 |
| Victor Martinez | 23 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .273 | .304 | .500 | .804 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 16 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .625 | 1.125 |
| Austin Jackson | 15 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .286 | .333 | .286 | .619 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .182 | .182 | .182 | .364 |
| Alex Avila | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.375 | 1.875 |
| Andy Dirks | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .875 | 1.375 |
| Prince Fielder | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .571 | .571 | 1.143 | 1.714 |
| Omar Infante | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .286 | .286 | .571 |
| Don Kelly | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jose Iglesias | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Brayan Pena | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 |
| Total | 197 | 187 | 60 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 27 | .321 | .347 | .524 | .871 |
Hunter has faced Colon the most without a ton of success. A .750 OPS isn’t terrible, but it’s mostly about extra base hits rather than getting on base very often. Avila, Dirks, and Fielder have done well in small samples and Martinez and Cabrera have been their usual impressive selves. The name that jumps out is second on the list in PA – Ramon Santiago.
Now it’s unlikely that Santiago will see the field in Game 1, but it might be worth putting him out on deck to scare Colon every now and then. Santiago has his number in a big way. He has a career OPS of .641, but in 28 PA against Colon it’s all the way up a 1.060. That’s impressive.
Again, this isn’t predictive, it’s simply interesting. Let’s look at some of their history.
| Year | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.000 | 1.333 | |
| 2003 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .625 | .625 | .750 | 1.375 | |
| 2004 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| 2009 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 | |
| 2011 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .833 | .833 | 1.167 | 2.000 | |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| 2013 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| RegSeason | 28 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .423 | .444 | .615 | 1.060 |
So the success hasn’t really been recent. Over his last six at bats, not much has happened. Which supports the idea that matchup stats aren’t predictive but points out that before that 0-6 he was even better! Just for fun here’s what appears to be the best hit ball by Santiago since 2009 against Colon. On an 0-2 fastball:
And where it landed:
Small samples and recent history be damned! Let’s see Santiago tomorrow!
How Leyland Should Manage His Pitching Staff
So the playoff rosters are likely coming sometime on Thursday and at that point we’re all going to spend way too much time analyzing whether or not Matt Tuiasosopo made the cut. But for now, let’s talk about something a bit more consequential – how Leyland should deploy his pitching staff.
Let’s draw the boundaries of the discussion by recognizing that he’s already set hit starting rotation for the entire series.
Game 1: Scherzer
Game 2: Verladner
Game 3: Sanchez
Game 4: Fister
Game 5: Scherzer
I’m not going to quibble with this order too much because it doesn’t make a big difference. I’d have led with Sanchez and then pitched Scherzer and then Verlander, but re-litigating that choice isn’t very exciting. Instead, let’s consider how to use what he has in the framework he’s established. For the purposes of this post I’m going to assume Porcello, Smyly, Benoit, Veras, Alburquerque, (lefty), and (long man righty). The last two don’t really matter, because you’re only going to use them in blowouts when everyone else is tired.
So I want to address two key premises that Leyland should employ during the first round, which begins on Friday.
USE YOUR STARTERS
This can be easily broken down into two categories. First, Rick Porcello is your best reliever, use him like it. Last year, Leyland didn’t use Smyly and Porcello as late inning relievers because he thought of them as his long-men/insurance policy. They were starers, so they didn’t pitch in tight games. They only got called on in the 4th inning or in blowouts. This is fundamentally flawed. Your starters, especially someone like Porcello who has a bit of an endurance issue as a starter, are going to become dynamite relievers. Their starting days are over until April, deploy them as high leverage relievers. Leyland needs to use Porcello like he’s a fireman. When the game is on the line, whether it’s inning four or inning eight, Porcello is the first guy you should call. He’s the best and you need to use your best when it matters most.
Second, Leyland needs to make use of Fister in relief. He threw one inning on Sunday and isn’t due to pitch again until Tuesday. That’s an eight day layoff between outings and the initial outing was only an inning long. Fister is well-rested and ready to go. Two things can happen here. One, if Scherzer doesn’t have it early, Leyland needs to be ready to go to Fister. Don’t wait until it’s too late, bring in another starter right away. During the season, you can sacrifice a game now for long term stability, but you can’t do that in the playoffs. Don’t be afraid to do something unorthodox. Two, get Fister an inning or two in relief anyway. We’re talking eight days between appearances and close to two weeks between starts. Get him in the game and let him throw 25-35 pitches on Friday. He’ll be plenty fresh for his schedule start and you won’t have to rely on the bullpen as much.
MANAGE DIFFERENTLY
This is vital to postseason bullpen management. Roles should be completely outlawed. This is about the situation in the game at that exact moment. There is no context, there is no future. If that means you bring in Benoit in the third inning, you do it. If it means Smyly for four outs and Porcello for seven based on the matchups, you do it. Need a strikeout, call Al-Al. You don’t have a closer or an “eighth inning guy” anymore. You have pitchers. Think of them as tranquilizer darts. Some are more powerful than others and some are designed for certain types of animals. When you only have a certain number of them and your life depends on not getting eaten alive, you need to choose which ones to fire when and you can’t decide based on the order you packed them in your bag. That’s not how this works. The playoffs are different than the regular season. You don’t have the luxury of rest or getting comfortable.
—-
Ultimately the key is for Leyland to recognize that Porcello will be an elite reliever and that he needs to worry about the situation instead of what might happen later. Mario and Rod routinely talk about how Leyland likes to think three innings ahead. That can work in the regular season, but it’s wrong in the postseason. You have to empty the chamber when the lion is bearing down on you. You can’t save a dart because a cheetah might come later.
I have some hope that he knows what Porcello can be after watching Bochy use Lincecum last season, but I’m much more skeptical about the second part. A lot of managers are unwilling to rock the boat this much and Leyland is very much a member of the rank and file. He’s not Dusty Baker stubborn, but he’s not very revolutionary. His virtues are clear – players love playing for him. But he has some clear tactical problems that will be more costly in the playoffs. Hopefully, he’ll make the right calls because if he unleashes this team in the best possible way, there is very little that can slow them down.
How Was The Month? Detroit Tigers September Report
Just a tune up.
13-13 (93-69 overall)
The Tigers entered September with very little left to prove. They were the best pitching staff and offense entering the month and had the division locked up for all intents and purposes. September was about closing the deal and getting lined up for the playoffs.
The Tigers didn’t hit terribly well in the month (92 wRC+), but some of that is biased due to the fact that they totally phoned in the last few days of the season. It wasn’t a great month, but it also wasn’t terrible considering how well they had hit for the first five months. Avila, Fielder, and Martinez killed the ball during September while Infante and Cabrera were above average.
To no one’s surprise, though, they were the best pitching staff in the league during the month of September turning in 6.0 WAR and a 10.27 K/9, nearly a full win ahead of the second place Indians! The entire rotation was great – led by Verlander’s 1.7 WAR as he looked more and more like himself as the month went on. Sanchez and Scherzer both put up more than 1.0 WAR and Fister and Porcello turned in 0.7 and 0.6 respectively. Only one of them, Porcello, had an ERA during the month higher than 3.00 and that was all the way up at 3.72.
The Tigers bats slowed down during the month, but their pitching staff did its thing as the team coasted to the division title and the postseason. They’ll be back in action on Friday against the A’s and New English D will have a lot more season wrap up coverage whenever the season actually ends.
The Moment: The Tigers score 6th in the 9th inning to tie it against the White Sox – and eventually win in extras.
How Was The Game? (September 29, 2013)
One of the more exciting meaningless losses you’ll ever see..
Marlins 1, Tigers 0
Justin Verlander (34 GS, 218.1 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 5.3 WAR) took the ball on the final day of the regular season for the Tigers and did his thing against the Marlins for 6 innings of shutout baseball in which he dropped 10 strikeouts along with just 3 hits and a walk. He failed to get his first MLB hit, but he came awfully close with a foul ball down the right field line against Henderson Alvarez who no hit the TIgers through 9 despite his team failing to score. Naturally, his team came through on a walk off wild pitch in the bottom of the inning to produce one of the more incredible finishes you’ll ever see in a game with nothing on the line. The outcome of this one meant nothing and was just about tuning up and keeping everyone healthy, but it was a nice chance for Verlander to make a final push to get the ball in game one on Friday. It will be interesting to see who Leyland selects, but there’s a sense that it will be Verlander and his impressive track record. Scherzer had the flashy year, and New English D has endorsed Sanchez, but after two straight double digit K games to close out the year, it won’t be a shock to see #35 on Friday. Stay with New English D for complete postseason coverage.
The Moment: Justin Verlander nearly doubles down the right field line for his first MLB hit, but the ball hooks just foul. Who are we kidding? Alvarez walk off wild pitch no hitter.
SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (September 29, 2013)
You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Additionally, SOEFA penalizes pitchers like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera who have done a very poor job when they have been asked to strand runners this season despite great numbers in other categories.
Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.08 and the inherited runner threshold has been increased from 5 to 8. SOEFA is a rate stat not a counting stat. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section. Also, as we look to improve SOEFA for next season, let us know if you have any suggestions! Hope you enjoyed this project and look for some analysis of its success this offseason.
| Rank | Name | Team | SOEFA |
| 1 | Sergio Santos | Blue Jays | 1.09 |
| 2 | Koji Uehara | Red Sox | 0.97 |
| 3 | Neal Cotts | Rangers | 0.95 |
| 4 | Greg Holland | Royals | 0.93 |
| 5 | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 0.92 |
| 6 | Drew Smyly | Tigers | 0.82 |
| 7 | Louis Coleman | Royals | 0.82 |
| 8 | Kevin Siegrist | Cardinals | 0.80 |
| 9 | Nick Vincent | Padres | 0.80 |
| 10 | Jesse Crain | White Sox | 0.78 |
| 11 | Mark Melancon | Pirates | 0.77 |
| 12 | Craig Kimbrel | Braves | 0.76 |
| 13 | Javier Lopez | Giants | 0.73 |
| 14 | Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | 0.71 |
| 15 | Sean Doolittle | Athletics | 0.68 |
| 16 | Chris Withrow | Dodgers | 0.67 |
| 17 | Luke Hochevar | Royals | 0.67 |
| 18 | Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 0.62 |
| 19 | Jose Veras | – – – | 0.60 |
| 20 | Jason Grilli | Pirates | 0.58 |
| 21 | Alex Torres | Rays | 0.57 |
| 22 | Casey Janssen | Blue Jays | 0.57 |
| 23 | Sam LeCure | Reds | 0.57 |
| 24 | Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.57 |
| 25 | Carlos Torres | Mets | 0.56 |
| 26 | Glen Perkins | Twins | 0.55 |
| 27 | Jake Diekman | Phillies | 0.55 |
| 28 | Tommy Hunter | Orioles | 0.54 |
| 29 | Will Smith | Royals | 0.53 |
| 30 | Jim Henderson | Brewers | 0.52 |
| 31 | Randy Choate | Cardinals | 0.52 |
| 32 | Dan Otero | Athletics | 0.51 |
| 33 | Carlos Villanueva | Cubs | 0.50 |
| 34 | Casey Fien | Twins | 0.50 |
| 35 | Antonio Bastardo | Phillies | 0.49 |
| 36 | Brian Matusz | Orioles | 0.49 |
| 37 | Juan Perez | Blue Jays | 0.49 |
| 38 | Alex Wood | Braves | 0.48 |
| 39 | Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 0.48 |
| 40 | Seth Maness | Cardinals | 0.48 |
| 41 | Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 0.47 |
| 42 | Chad Qualls | Marlins | 0.47 |
| 43 | Jordan Walden | Braves | 0.47 |
| 44 | Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.47 |
| 45 | Tanner Scheppers | Rangers | 0.47 |
| 46 | Andrew Miller | Red Sox | 0.46 |
| 47 | Brandon Kintzler | Brewers | 0.46 |
| 48 | Paco Rodriguez | Dodgers | 0.46 |
| 49 | Manny Parra | Reds | 0.45 |
| 50 | Mariano Rivera | Yankees | 0.45 |
| 51 | Bobby Parnell | Mets | 0.44 |
| 52 | Edward Mujica | Cardinals | 0.44 |
| 53 | J.P. Howell | Dodgers | 0.43 |
| 54 | Jason Frasor | Rangers | 0.43 |
| 55 | Joe Thatcher | – – – | 0.43 |
| 56 | Steve Cishek | Marlins | 0.43 |
| 57 | David Carpenter | Braves | 0.42 |
| 58 | Matt Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 0.42 |
| 59 | Ernesto Frieri | Angels | 0.40 |
| 60 | Jean Machi | Giants | 0.40 |
| 61 | Tony Watson | Pirates | 0.40 |
| 62 | Sergio Romo | Giants | 0.39 |
| 63 | Shawn Kelley | Yankees | 0.39 |
| 64 | Aroldis Chapman | Reds | 0.38 |
| 65 | Blake Parker | Cubs | 0.38 |
| 66 | Luis Avilan | Braves | 0.38 |
| 67 | Vin Mazzaro | Pirates | 0.38 |
| 68 | Junichi Tazawa | Red Sox | 0.37 |
| 69 | Will Harris | Diamondbacks | 0.36 |
| 70 | Brad Ziegler | Diamondbacks | 0.34 |
| 71 | Jonathan Papelbon | Phillies | 0.34 |
| 72 | Luke Gregerson | Padres | 0.34 |
| 73 | Robbie Ross | Rangers | 0.34 |
| 74 | Joe Smith | Indians | 0.33 |
| 75 | Darren O’Day | Orioles | 0.32 |
| 76 | Joel Peralta | Rays | 0.32 |
| 77 | Ross Ohlendorf | Nationals | 0.32 |
| 78 | Caleb Thielbar | Twins | 0.31 |
| 79 | Francisco Rodriguez | – – – | 0.31 |
| 80 | Jerome Williams | Angels | 0.31 |
| 81 | Tom Gorzelanny | Brewers | 0.31 |
| 82 | Tyler Clippard | Nationals | 0.31 |
| 83 | Kevin Chapman | Astros | 0.30 |
| 84 | Matt Belisle | Rockies | 0.29 |
| 85 | Cody Allen | Indians | 0.28 |
| 86 | Nate Jones | White Sox | 0.28 |
| 87 | Craig Breslow | Red Sox | 0.27 |
| 88 | Craig Stammen | Nationals | 0.27 |
| 89 | David Robertson | Yankees | 0.27 |
| 90 | Josh Outman | Rockies | 0.27 |
| 91 | Santiago Casilla | Giants | 0.27 |
| 92 | Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0.26 |
| 93 | David Huff | – – – | 0.26 |
| 94 | Aaron Loup | Blue Jays | 0.25 |
| 95 | Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.25 |
| 96 | Bryan Shaw | Indians | 0.25 |
| 97 | Grant Balfour | Athletics | 0.25 |
| 98 | Luis Ayala | – – – | 0.25 |
| 99 | Jared Burton | Twins | 0.24 |
| 100 | Luke Putkonen | Tigers | 0.24 |
| 101 | Anthony Varvaro | Braves | 0.23 |
| 102 | Fernando Rodney | Rays | 0.23 |
| 103 | Rex Brothers | Rockies | 0.23 |
| 104 | Chad Gaudin | Giants | 0.22 |
| 105 | Danny Farquhar | Mariners | 0.22 |
| 106 | Joe Nathan | Rangers | 0.22 |
| 107 | Mike Dunn | Marlins | 0.22 |
| 108 | Scott Downs | – – – | 0.22 |
| 109 | Tim Collins | Royals | 0.22 |
| 110 | Addison Reed | White Sox | 0.21 |
| 111 | J.J. Putz | Diamondbacks | 0.21 |
| 112 | Neil Wagner | Blue Jays | 0.20 |
| 113 | Adam Ottavino | Rockies | 0.18 |
| 114 | Dan Jennings | Marlins | 0.18 |
| 115 | Josh Zeid | Astros | 0.18 |
| 116 | Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 0.18 |
| 117 | Dale Thayer | Padres | 0.17 |
| 118 | Rafael Betancourt | Rockies | 0.17 |
| 119 | Preston Claiborne | Yankees | 0.16 |
| 120 | Donovan Hand | Brewers | 0.15 |
| 121 | Dustin McGowan | Blue Jays | 0.15 |
| 122 | LaTroy Hawkins | Mets | 0.15 |
| 123 | Rafael Soriano | Nationals | 0.15 |
| 124 | Brad Boxberger | Padres | 0.14 |
| 125 | Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 0.14 |
| 126 | Jim Johnson | Orioles | 0.14 |
| 127 | Justin Wilson | Pirates | 0.14 |
| 128 | Bruce Rondon | Tigers | 0.13 |
| 129 | Gonzalez Germen | Mets | 0.13 |
| 130 | Huston Street | Padres | 0.12 |
| 131 | Jamey Wright | Rays | 0.12 |
| 132 | Logan Ondrusek | Reds | 0.12 |
| 133 | Ryan Webb | Marlins | 0.12 |
| 134 | Anthony Swarzak | Twins | 0.11 |
| 135 | Scott Rice | Mets | 0.11 |
| 136 | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 0.11 |
| 137 | Matt Lindstrom | White Sox | 0.10 |
| 138 | Burke Badenhop | Brewers | 0.09 |
| 139 | Darren Oliver | Blue Jays | 0.09 |
| 140 | Oliver Perez | Mariners | 0.09 |
| 141 | Wilton Lopez | Rockies | 0.09 |
| 142 | Rob Scahill | Rockies | 0.08 |
| 143 | Andrew Bailey | Red Sox | 0.07 |
| 144 | Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 0.07 |
| 145 | Kevin Gregg | Cubs | 0.07 |
| 146 | Sandy Rosario | Giants | 0.07 |
| 147 | Brian Duensing | Twins | 0.06 |
| 148 | Heath Bell | Diamondbacks | 0.06 |
| 149 | Jeanmar Gomez | Pirates | 0.06 |
| 150 | Alfredo Figaro | Brewers | 0.05 |
| 151 | Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.05 |
| 152 | Joe Kelly | Cardinals | 0.05 |
| 153 | Matt Thornton | – – – | 0.05 |
| 154 | Ryan Cook | Athletics | 0.05 |
| 155 | Yoervis Medina | Mariners | 0.05 |
| 156 | Kelvin Herrera | Royals | 0.04 |
| 157 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.03 |
| 158 | Fernando Abad | Nationals | 0.02 |
| 159 | Jerry Blevins | Athletics | 0.02 |
| 160 | Dane de la Rosa | Angels | 0.01 |
| 161 | David Aardsma | Mets | 0.01 |
| 162 | J.J. Hoover | Reds | 0.01 |
| 163 | Matt Guerrier | – – – | 0.01 |
| 164 | Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.00 |
| 165 | Donnie Veal | White Sox | 0.00 |
| 166 | Ross Wolf | Rangers | 0.00 |
| 167 | Joe Ortiz | Rangers | -0.01 |
| 168 | Josh Edgin | Mets | -0.01 |
| 169 | Edgmer Escalona | Rockies | -0.02 |
| 170 | J.C. Gutierrez | – – – | -0.02 |
| 171 | Manuel Corpas | Rockies | -0.02 |
| 172 | Marc Rzepczynski | – – – | -0.03 |
| 173 | Pat Neshek | Athletics | -0.03 |
| 174 | Cesar Ramos | Rays | -0.04 |
| 175 | Kevin Jepsen | Angels | -0.04 |
| 176 | James Russell | Cubs | -0.05 |
| 177 | Tyler Thornburg | Brewers | -0.05 |
| 178 | Aaron Crow | Royals | -0.06 |
| 179 | Darin Downs | Tigers | -0.06 |
| 180 | Josh Fields | Astros | -0.06 |
| 181 | Wesley Wright | – – – | -0.06 |
| 182 | Evan Reed | Tigers | -0.07 |
| 183 | Ryan Pressly | Twins | -0.07 |
| 184 | Carter Capps | Mariners | -0.08 |
| 185 | Evan Scribner | Athletics | -0.08 |
| 186 | Brandon Workman | Red Sox | -0.09 |
| 187 | Jake McGee | Rays | -0.09 |
| 188 | Matt Albers | Indians | -0.09 |
| 189 | Fernando Salas | Cardinals | -0.10 |
| 190 | Michael Kohn | Angels | -0.10 |
| 191 | Drew Storen | Nationals | -0.11 |
| 192 | Troy Patton | Orioles | -0.12 |
| 193 | David Hernandez | Diamondbacks | -0.13 |
| 194 | Pedro Strop | – – – | -0.13 |
| 195 | A.J. Ramos | Marlins | -0.14 |
| 196 | Al Alburquerque | Tigers | -0.15 |
| 197 | Bryan Morris | Pirates | -0.15 |
| 198 | David Purcey | White Sox | -0.15 |
| 199 | Ronald Belisario | Dodgers | -0.15 |
| 200 | Adam Warren | Yankees | -0.16 |
| 201 | Joakim Soria | Rangers | -0.16 |
| 202 | Jake Dunning | Giants | -0.17 |
| 203 | Jared Hughes | Pirates | -0.17 |
| 204 | Chaz Roe | Diamondbacks | -0.18 |
| 205 | Drake Britton | Red Sox | -0.18 |
| 206 | Jose Mijares | Giants | -0.18 |
| 207 | Cory Gearrin | Braves | -0.19 |
| 208 | Raul Valdes | Phillies | -0.19 |
| 209 | Zach Duke | – – – | -0.19 |
| 210 | Brad Brach | Padres | -0.20 |
| 211 | Justin De Fratus | Phillies | -0.20 |
| 212 | Ramon Troncoso | White Sox | -0.22 |
| 213 | Rob Wooten | Brewers | -0.23 |
| 214 | Chris Perez | Indians | -0.24 |
| 215 | Jonathan Broxton | Reds | -0.24 |
| 216 | Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners | -0.24 |
| 217 | Kyle Farnsworth | – – – | -0.25 |
| 218 | Mike Adams | Phillies | -0.26 |
| 219 | Philip Humber | Astros | -0.26 |
| 220 | Scott Atchison | Mets | -0.26 |
| 221 | Blake Beavan | Mariners | -0.27 |
| 222 | Rich Hill | Indians | -0.27 |
| 223 | Vinnie Pestano | Indians | -0.27 |
| 224 | Franklin Morales | Red Sox | -0.28 |
| 225 | George Kontos | Giants | -0.29 |
| 226 | Lucas Luetge | Mariners | -0.30 |
| 227 | Nick Hagadone | Indians | -0.30 |
| 228 | Rhiner Cruz | Astros | -0.30 |
| 229 | Tony Sipp | Diamondbacks | -0.30 |
| 230 | Brad Lincoln | Blue Jays | -0.31 |
| 231 | Carlos Marmol | – – – | -0.31 |
| 232 | Garrett Richards | Angels | -0.31 |
| 233 | Phil Coke | Tigers | -0.31 |
| 234 | John Axford | – – – | -0.32 |
| 235 | Michael Bowden | Cubs | -0.33 |
| 236 | T.J. McFarland | Orioles | -0.35 |
| 237 | Ryan Mattheus | Nationals | -0.36 |
| 238 | Josh Roenicke | Twins | -0.37 |
| 239 | Dylan Axelrod | White Sox | -0.38 |
| 240 | Paul Clemens | Astros | -0.38 |
| 241 | Guillermo Moscoso | Giants | -0.39 |
| 242 | Kameron Loe | – – – | -0.41 |
| 243 | Travis Blackley | – – – | -0.41 |
| 244 | Clayton Mortensen | Red Sox | -0.43 |
| 245 | Esmil Rogers | Blue Jays | -0.43 |
| 246 | Josh Lueke | Rays | -0.44 |
| 247 | Alex Wilson | Red Sox | -0.46 |
| 248 | Brandon Lyon | Mets | -0.49 |
| 249 | Michael Gonzalez | Brewers | -0.50 |
| 250 | Brandon Maurer | Mariners | -0.51 |
| 251 | Greg Burke | Mets | -0.52 |
| 252 | Lucas Harrell | Astros | -0.52 |
| 253 | Luis Garcia | Phillies | -0.53 |
| 254 | Bruce Chen | Royals | -0.54 |
| 255 | Hector Rondon | Cubs | -0.57 |
| 256 | Jeremy Horst | Phillies | -0.59 |
| 257 | Jose Cisnero | Astros | -0.59 |
| 258 | Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | -0.62 |
| 259 | Dallas Keuchel | Astros | -0.64 |
| 260 | Hector Ambriz | Astros | -0.64 |
| 261 | Jeremy Affeldt | Giants | -0.67 |
| 262 | Cory Rasmus | – – – | -0.69 |
| 263 | Ian Krol | Nationals | -0.69 |
| 264 | Henry Rodriguez | – – – | -0.71 |
| 265 | Michael Kirkman | Rangers | -0.75 |
| 266 | Brandon League | Dodgers | -0.76 |
| 267 | J.C. Ramirez | Phillies | -0.90 |
| 268 | Anthony Bass | Padres | -0.94 |
| 269 | Shawn Camp | Cubs | -1.04 |
| 270 | Mitchell Boggs | – – – | -1.37 |
| 271 | Curtis Partch | Reds | -1.43 |
Hal Newhouser’s Peak
This post is a contribution to Did The Tribe Win Last Night‘s ’48 Replay project in which they are telling the story of the 1948 Cleveland Indians as if it’s happening live. They have game recaps, Twitter coverage, and a whole lot more. DTTWLN reached out to New English D a couple of months ago about contributing to the project and we’re suckers for baseball history. Whenever the Tigers are scheduled to play the Indians in DTTWLN’s way-back machine, you’ll hear from us.
The Tigers have never had a better hurler than the hometown lefty, Hal Newhouser. There are always debates when you make statements like that, but the facts back it up. In 373 starts for the Tigers (and 460 total appearances), Newhouser racked up 62.7 WAR, which is the highest mark ever for a pitcher in a Tigers uniform. He’s a couple wins ahead of Lolich. A couple more ahead of Bridges. A few more ahead of Dizzy Trout. Yeah, the Tigers once had a Trout!
After those four, the next name on the list is one you’ll recognize. Justin Verlander. In 2944 IP, Newhouser gave the Tigers 62.7 WAR. In 265 starts and 1766 innings, Verlander has provided 43.6. Verlander’s pace is better, but Verlander is just exiting his peak so his overall average hasn’t evened out with the inclusion of his later years. By raw numbers to this point, Newhouser is the best the Tigers have ever had.
Take it a step further and take a glance at his peak seasons, let’s say his best five years in a row, and compare that to the other Tigers greats. Newhouser’s peak extends from 1944-1948 and what a marvelous peak it was. In 1475.2 IP in that span, Newhouser had 39.2 WAR, a 62 ERA-, and 69 FIP-. Verlander’s peak isn’t terribly far behind as he has turned in 1166 IP and 33.2 WAR from 2009-2013 (entering Sunday’s start) to go along with a 72 ERA- and 71 FIP- during the same span.
Newhouser has the totals and Newhouser has the best multi-season run in Tigers history. Verlander might make a run at the first, but unless he adds 6 wins to his 2013 total in 9 innings on Sunday afternoon, he won’t match Hal’s five year peak.
As far as single seasons go, it’s Hal Newhouser on top again with his brilliant 1946 season in which he compiled 10.2 WAR in nearly 300 innings of baseball. That season he turned in a 1.94 ERA, 1.96 FIP and struck out more than 8 batters per 9 which was also good for a 54 ERA- and 57 FIP-. It might be more impressive to point out that the league average K/9 that year was 3.92. Meaning that the 2013 equivalent of that mark is something better than 16 K/9. No Tiger can touch what Newhouser did in ’46.
But if you’re going by one particular rate state, FIP-, which adjusts for park and league average, Newhouser has some recent company. In 1946, Newhouser was 43% better than league average using Fielding Independent Pitching. Second on that list is Anibal Sanchez’s 2013 season at 41% better (59 FIP-). That’s a razor thin edge for Newhouser, but an edge nonetheless, and speaks to the marvelous work done by Sanchez this year.
It would be hard to argue that Newhouser, who starts Sunday in DTTWLN’s #48Replay, is anything short of the best starter in Tigers history. He’s accumulated the most value, had the best five year peak, and has the best single season to his name. He peaked more than 60 years ago, so most of those who remember watching him pitch are gone, which is why he doesn’t get the kind of publicity that Kaline and Trammel get among the Tigers faithful, but as the ’48 season kicks off here on the internet, take a moment to appreciate the best starter to ever wear the Old English D and the recent pitchers who have tried to unseat him.
How Was The Game? (September 28, 2013)
A record setting affair.
Marlins 2, Tigers 1
Anibal Sanchez (29 GS, 182 IP, 2.57 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 6.2 WAR) didn’t hang around that long, but he hung around long enough to give the Tigers the single season strikeout record and he hung around long enough to tie his career best in strikeouts at 202. He also hung around long enough to give the Tigers 5 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts, no walks, and just 2 hits as the Tigers led the Marlins in Miami until the 9th inning. They didn’t manage much offense – just a single run – but Sanchez was good enough to set the bullpen up to take this one the distance before Benoit allowed the equalizer and Reed melted down in the 10th. The loss means the Tigers can only win 94 on the season and cannot tie the ’06 and ’11 teams in wins with a victory on the final day of the season behind Justin Verlander (33 GS, 212.1 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 4.8 WAR) who isn’t quite ready to cede his place atop the Tigers rotation entering the postseason. It’s unclear who Leyland plans to give the ball to on Friday in Oakland, but there’s a good chance that with a little magic on Sunday, Verlander might be his guy.
The Moment: Sanchez strikes out Chris Coghlan to give the Tigers the single season strikeout record.
How Was The Game? (September 27, 2013)
Like one you’d play in March.
Marlins 3, Tigers 2
Jose Alvarez (6 GS and 8 relief appearances, 38.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 5.19 FIP, -0.1 WAR) started tonight so that Porcello could get some work out of the ‘pen and while Alvarez wasn’t great across 2.2 innings, allowing 3 runs in a meaningless game isn’t much about which to worry. The TIgers ran through five pitchers and all kinds of other substitutions en route to tonight’s loss, but seeing Peralta return and hit a double to right center should be a very welcome sign. Fielder walked and came out in the 2nd and Cabrera came out in the 6th after “singling” off the wall. The Tigers will work another tune up Saturday evening with a few innings from Anibal Sanchez (28 GS, 177 IP, 2.64 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 5.9 WAR) as he makes his final case to start game one and, heck, win the Cy Young.
The Moment: Peralta returns to the lineup and doubles in a run.
Rick Porcello’s Closing Argument
It was just a couple of months ago that I wrote about Porcello’s breakout season and then I did it again as he broke out even further four weeks later. This was the year that Rick Porcello made the leap from really good #5 starter to really good starter without the numerical qualification. He’s been scratched from his final scheduled start tonight to get ready for his postseason role out of the pen, so it’s time to look back on his season. It was an excellent campaign for the 24 year old right-hander and it’s only a sign of things to come.
Right off the bat, it’s worth noting that these numbers would look even better if the Angels didn’t possess some sort of Rick Porcello kryptonite, as he participated in two blowup starts involving that opponent. But I won’t drop those starts out because you don’t need to drop those two starts out to demonstrate Porcello’s ascendancy into the upper ranks of AL starting pitchers. (19th in WAR, 6th in xFIP, 17th in FIP in the AL)
It’s well documented that Porcello scrapped his very troublesome slider for a curveball and started throwing the changeup more often this year. It’s also worth noting that he is 24 years old and has 149 MLB starts under his belt. Pitchers tend to peak in their late twenties and here Porcello is a year away from free agency and he won’t be 25 until two days after Christmas. Which is to say, there’s more development coming. Verlander didn’t become VERLANDER until he was 26. Scherzer came even later. Rick Porcello has loads of MLB experience ahead of his prime and things are looking great.
Let’s start with his strikeout and walk rates over the course of his career, both per 9 and as percentages of total batters faced:
So what we have here is a pitcher with a very low walk rate who went from modest strikeout gains every year to a huge leap in strikeouts this year. And if we’re talking strikeouts, it gets better if you look month to month. Porcello had some fluctuation this year, but he had four months that were as good or better than about every month he had previously in his career. Only July stands out, because as we documented in earlier work, Porcello’s breakout came after his disaster start on April 20. This is the new Porcello:
He’s also seeing an uptick in his ground ball percentage.
Wrap that all together and you’ve got yourself a heck of a trend in terms of run prevention and expected run prevention.
Porcello’s ERA is always going to look on the high side if he plays in front of a poor infield defense like the Tigers (Iglesias will help big time), but he’s lowered it every season in conjunction with better peripheral numbers. He doesn’t walk people, he dramatically increased his strikeout rate, and he gets a ton of ground balls, which are good because ground balls don’t go for extra base hits nearly as often as fly balls.
But it’s more than his ability to keep guys off the bases with his new found love of the strikeout, it’s what’s happening even when he allows a ball to be put in play. He’s allowed the lowest slugging percentage against of his career. His well-hit average against is the lowest of his career and the same is true of his wOBA against.
Not only is Porcello striking out more batters, he’s also inducing weaker contact when batters do manage to put the ball in play. He’s getting better results, too, and he’s still just 24. Let’s look at Verlander and Porcello side by side through their age 24 seasons:
| Name | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Rick Porcello | 149 | 866.1 | 5.43 | 2.31 | 0.97 | 0.312 | 4.52 | 4.12 | 3.93 | 12 |
| Justin Verlander | 64 | 399 | 7.08 | 2.98 | 0.95 | 0.288 | 3.74 | 4.17 | 4.31 | 7.1 |
That’s right, Porcello had a better FIP and xFIP through age 24 in twice as many innings as the great Verlander and he has a higher WAR through age 24 as well. It’s often difficult to realize that while Porcello has been around forever, he’s also just a kid. He’s done more before his 25th birthday than Verlander and Verlander just signed a $200 million contract. A lot can happen from 25-30.
Like this:
| Name | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Justin Verlander | 201 | 1367 | 8.87 | 2.71 | 0.75 | 0.288 | 3.32 | 3.18 | 3.56 | 36.5 |
Well, then. Justin Verlander got way better after his 25th birthday. He increased his K/9 by 2 and dropped his walk rate a bit, which turned into a lower ERA, FIP, and xFIP despite the same BABIP. He increased his innings per start from 6.2 to 6.8 and became the best and richest pitcher in the sport.
I’m not saying Porcello’s going to be Verlander. Not at all. But he’s going to be really good because pitchers who are this good when they’re young (and who stay healthy) get better when they hit their prime. Porcello’s prime is still coming. He’s never missed a start due to injury and he’s making the kinds of progressions that we’d expect to see from a pitcher developing into a star.
When I wrote back in June about Porcello’s breakout I made very similar comparisons and used very similar looking graphs. It all looks the same today. This wasn’t a month long blip. This was a real thing and it’s about to get even real-er. Porcello will be 25 next season and entering his walk year. The Tigers have a lot of big contracts promised to their high end talent and Cabrera and Scherzer are both looming extensions coming in the next 24 months. But Cabrera is 30 and Scherzer will be 30 next summer. Rick Porcello is 24.
This may sound strange, but Rick Porcello is the guy you lock up. Maybe they’ll pay Scherzer and Cabrera too, but Porcello is the bet to make today. A long term deal buys his late twenties – his prime – instead of paying Scherzer and Cabs for their thirties, and it’s time to strike before the Rays, A’s, and Red Sox get their sabermetric claws out. The Cubs are going to be looking to contend in 2015. So are the Astros. That should scare you if you’re a Tigers fan because I promise you those teams see the value in Porcello. You can’t let him get away because he’s good and he’s young. The Tigers need to sign Porcello to a 5 year deal tonight while he’s watching Jose Alvarez fill in for him as he gets ready to move to the pen for the playoffs.
Porcello is unquestionably baseball’s best 5th starter. It’s what makes the Tigers great and it’s what will make the Tigers great for years to come, except in two years he won’t be the #5, he’ll be the #2. This season was Porcello’s breakout and it’s been a joy to watch. We’ve seen his last start in 2013, but if the Tigers are smart, we’ll have years more to enjoy.
New English D 