How Was The Game? (May 13, 2013)
It’s always fun to play the Astros.
Tigers 7, Astros 2
The Tigers performed against the Astros as a team should. Behind a strong start by Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 52.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 2.6 WAR) in which he went 7 innings, allowed 2 runs, struck out 8 and walked 1. In addition to Sanchez’s strong outing, Andy Dirks’ 4th inning grand slam backed Victor Martinez’s 2 run homer in the same inning to give the Tigers plenty of offense with which to work. The Tigers didn’t miss Jackson with Dirks providing three hits from the leadoff spot and Sanchez maintained his position atop the pitcher WAR leaderboard – actually by a lot. After today’s start, Sanchez now owns a 11.28 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in 8 starts, which if you’re new to baseball, is very good. Both numbers, in addition to the ERA and FIP, are on pace to be career bests. Should Sanchez keep anything close to this pace up for the rest of the season, this will certainly be Sanchez’s career year. One of the things that is contributing to Sanchez’s success this year is his increased reliance on his changeup as opposed to in the past (as illustrated below by yearly averages):
It’s too early to say for sure, but it looks like trading a few sliders for some changeups is helping Sanchez perform above his career norms early in 2013. He’s also allowing fewer homeruns per flyball (2.6%) than his career average (8.2%) which could be good fortune or the result of the new approach. The Tigers will look to take the series tomorrow night with Doug Fister (4-1, 43 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.2 WAR) toeing the rubber.
The Moment: Dirks hits a no doubt grand slam – the first of his career – in the 4th.
The Morning Edition (May 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright nearly no-hits the Rockies, settles for a CGSO
- The bullpen nearly blows Darvish’s W in Houston
- Longoria bails out Hellickson with a walk off HR against the Padres
- Stasburg allows 4 unearned runs, but loses anyway to the Cubs
- Buehrle outduels Buchholz as Lind’s HR saves the day
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey against the Pirates (1p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Santana match up in KC (2p Eastern)
- Wilson and Sale try to buoy struggling teams on Sunday Night Baseball (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Cardinals or Tigers staff, which is better?
If you evaluate the above question by WAR, it’s the Tiger easily. They’re first in baseball at 9.5 (11p Eastern Saturday), more than 2 WAR ahead of second place. The Cardinals are 5th, a full four wins back. Yet the Cards ERA is a sparkling 2.92 while the Tigers are at 3.45. If you look at FIP, the Tigers are ahead 2.58 to 3.06. This is a good lesson in run prevention and expected run prevention. The Tigers out pitch the Cardinals in two of three areas in which the pitcher has control; strikeouts and homeruns. What’s funny is that the Cardinals don’t have a much better defense. It appears that they are getting a little better sequencing than the Tigers right now. Additionally, the Tigers starters have 7.5 to the Cardinals 5.6 WAR – so the Cardinals are weighed down by a terrible bullpen. They are 1 and 2 in SP WAR and 3 and 27th in reliever WAR. It’s a fun debate however you wish to slice it and I wouldn’t mind having either starting staff, though I’m partial to the Tigers.
The Morning Edition (May 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jon Lester delivers a 1 hit CGSO as the Sox beat the Jays 5-0
- Alex Cobb strikes out 13 Padres in 4.2 inning, including 4 in one inning…an inning in which he allowed a run on 2 SB and a balk…and fails to pitch deep enough to win
- Miller is brilliant again against the Rockies, retiring 27 straight after allowing a leadoff hit (CG, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13K)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz welcomes the Blue Jays to Fenway (130p Eastern)
- Wainwright gets a challenge from the Rockies (2p Eastern)
- Strasburg gets the Cubs offense (4p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Astros (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee starts in the desert (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which of the six Appointment Television starters who pitch today will you be watching?
Often in this space, I highlight a player who is performing well. Today, who is performing poorly? On the pitching side of things, the winner is Mark Buehrle who owns a -0.5 WAR and 7.02 ERA and 6.34 FIP. His strikeout and walk rates are about on par with career norms, but he’s getting fewer groundballs and allowing an insane amount of homeruns. The homerun rate will regress, but a low strikeout control type guy like Buehrle has a pretty small margin for error and his number can balloon quickly. The league’s worst position player, just barely, is Jeff Keppinger who is worth -1.0 WAR and boasts and impressive .195/.191/.212 line in 27 games, good for a -3 wRC+. This means a couple things. First, he’s taken zero walks, so his sacrifice flies make his OBP lower than his batting average and he is 103% worse at the plate right now than league average. Just to give you an entire of what that indicates, the worst offensive season since WWII belongs to Billy Hunter and his 29 wRC+ for the St. Louis Browns. Not that he won’t pick up a little, but if Keppinger keeps this up, (he’ll get benched) he’ll have the worst season relative to league average by 32% since 1946. Impressive.
How Was The Game? (May 5, 2013)
Almost.
Tigers 9, Astros 0
It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which the Tigers jumped out to a big early lead behind four homeruns and completed a four game sweep that pushed their record to 9-1 in their last 10 and 19-11 on the season that we would feel slightly unfulfilled. That lack of fulfillment comes at the faunt of Justin Verlander (4-2, 46.1 IP, 1.55 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.0 WAR) who taunted us again with his brilliance and held the Astros hitless through 6.1 inning before allowing a single to erstwhile Tiger Carlos Pena. Just four major league pitchers have thrown 3 no-hitters in the modern era and Verlander was making yet another run to join that club. In failing to do so, he still managed to throw 7 shutout innings and struck out 9 Astros. His pitch count was slightly elevated all afternoon, but the uncomfortable moments for Leyland were avoided as Verlander allowed a hit before he crosses into 120+ pitch territory. The Tigers will take tomorrow off to bask in their victorious weekend and will head to DC to face the Nats behind Anibal Sanchez (3-2. 39.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 1.31 FIP, 2.0 WAR) on Tuesday.
The Moment: Verlander takes a no-hiiter into the 7th inning.
How Was The Game? (May 4, 2013)
Just a domination.
Tigers 17, Astros 2
To give you an indication of how this one played out, Jim Leyland pulled both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the late innings and the Tigers scored 5 more runs after they left the game. It was a thorough annihilation the likes of which we haven’t seen yet this year. The Tigers jumped out to a 4-0 lead before Scherzer threw a pitch and added runs in every inning except the 3rd. Jackson, Hunter, Martinez, Peralta, Avila, and Infante all had multi-hit games, but Cabrera (.390/.467/.627, 196 wRC+, 1.7 WAR) stood out at the plate with 4 hits, 2 massive homeruns, and 6 runs batted in and added a dandy diving play in the field for good measure. The Tigers finally treated the Astros pitchers like the Astros and Max Scherzer (4-0, 39.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 1.6 WAR) treated the Astros hitters the same way. The offense may have stolen your attention, but he was not to be outdone. He went 8 innings and allowed just a single run while striking out 8, walking 2 and allowing 3 hits.. With the win, the Tigers take the series and improve to 18-11 on the season and will go for the sweep tomorrow behind Justin Verlander (3-2, 39.1 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 1.6 WAR).
The Moment: Cabrera crushes a 2nd inning homerun to extend the lead early.
How Was The Game? (May 3, 2013)
Late blooming.
Tigers 4, Astros 3
The Tigers jumped out to an early lead in this one, scoring single runs in the 2nd and 4th to take a 2-0 lead, but the Astros came back and got to Doug Fister (4-0, 40 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.1 WAR) for 3 runs (2 earned) in a very strange 7th inning that featured scoring plays on an error and a peculiar infield hit. Otherwise, Fister was strong, striking out 4 and walking 1 in 6+ innings of work. Norris limited the Tigers on the other side and Smyly (2-0, 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.67 FIP, 0.7 WAR) shut down the Astros in relief of Fister in the 7th and 8th. It was uneventful as far as close games go aside from an iffy homerun review in the 4th inning, until Alex Avila strode to the plate in the 9th inning with the team down a run with Don Kelly standing on first. He worked the count to 3-0 and then took a strike before smashing the 3-1 pitch over the left centerfield fence for a much needed go-ahead homerun (Avila has 4 HR this year but only a 56 wRC+). The win improves the Tigers to 17-11 on the season and 2-0 on the roadtrip and they’ll be back at it tomorrow behind strikeout artist Max Scherzer (3-0, 31.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 1.4 WAR) trying to lock in a series win.
The Moment: Avila knocks a go-ahead 2 run homer in the 9th.
How Was The Game? (May 2, 2013)
Late, but worth the wait.
Tigers 7, Astros 3
The Tigers traveled to Houston today to play an AL team for the first time and the small number of fans (16,000) who attended were treated to a close game. Rick Porcello (1-2, 26.1 IP, 7.18 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 0.1 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 solid innings, surrendering 3 runs on two homers while striking out 7 and walking none, while also allowing just 5 hits. He wouldn’t factor in the decision as he left the game down 3-2 before Martinez drove in Fielder in the 8th inning to tie the game at 3. Ortega, Benoit, and Putkonen held the Astros at bay while the Tigers threatened but didn’t score in innings 9 through 13, which set up an Austin Jackson lead off double in the 14th which begat two intentional walks followed by a go -ahead single by Don Kelly to make it 4-3 and a Matt Tuiasosopo double to make it 6-3 and a Jhonny Peralta sac fly to make it 7-3 and put the game out of reach. With the victory the Tigers improve to 16-11 on the season and have now won 7 of their last 9, not to mention their impressive 2-0 record in 14 inning games. They’ll be back at it later today behind Doug Fister (4-0, 34 IP, 2.38 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 0.9 WAR) in search of their 17th win.
The Moment: Kelly drives in Jackson to give the Tigers the lead in the 14th.
The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
The Morning Edition (April 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valdespin hits a walk off grand slam in Flushing against the Dodgers despite only needing one run
- Todd Frazier homers to power Latos and the Reds to a 1-0 win
- The Orioles lost an extra inning game!
- Strasburg goes 7 and gives up 3 runs, but it isn’t enough to avoid a sweep against the Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee gets the Pirates at home (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz looks to pad his stats against the Astros (630p Eastern)
- The Reds and Nats battle in what could be a playoff preview (7p Eastern)
- Hellickson and Sale hook up at U.S. Cellular Field (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Has anyone noticed David Wright this year?
Both of today’s observations concern the Mets, who walked off on Wednesday. First, David Wright is having a great start despite no one saying anything about him. He’s hitting .309/.447/.529 in 85 PA to go with a 176 wRC+. Seems like that should get more attention, but just having 2 homeruns is probably to blame even though he has 6 steals and that amazing line. Surprisingly also, Matt Harvey appeared to resemble a human being last night as he only went 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. That said, I mean, 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 10.03 K/9 is still pretty good.
The Morning Edition (April 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Moore dominates the Yankees, tosses 8 2-hit innings and strikes out 9 in a 5-1 win
- Miller and the Cards edge the Nats 3-2
- Felix and the Mariners handle the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright looks to stay hot against Detwiler and the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Niese hook up in a battle of talented lefties (7p Eastern)
- Cain looks to straighten out against rookie standout Patrick Corbin (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will we be watching the NL Cy Young today with Kershaw and Wainwright in action?
I was a big believer in Shin Shoo Choo going into the season from an offensive perspective. I thought he was exactly what the Reds needed. So far, that looks pretty good. The defense is hit and miss so far (-3.7 UZR), but here’s his line as of 10:12pm on April 22:
.371/.522/.614, .490 wOBA, 216 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Not bad. He’s only reaching base more often that he is making outs. That’s not a valuable skill or anything. How’s he doing it? Well he’s a patient hitter in a good park, but he’s also been hit 10 times. The league leader was only hit 17 all of last season. He’s on pace for close to 80 HBP, which would be silly, but he’s going to have a lot. The record, should you be interested, belongs to Ron Hunt of the 1971 Expos. He was hit 50 times. Don Baylor was hit 35 times in 1986, which is second best. Choo might have a shot at that one.
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