The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
- Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
- Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1
What I’m Watching Today:
- Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
- Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?
The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.
2013 Season Preview: American League West
In an awesome and surprising turn of events, the Oakland A’s won the West in 2012 after the Angels spent a ton of money and the Rangers led wire to wire. It was the kind of thing Hollywood would laugh at for being unrealistic, but it happened.
This year, the hapless Houston Astros join the party. They won’t be hapless forever, but this year looks likely to be a mess in the space city. The West was arguably the best division in 2012 and should be good again in 2013 despite a potential 100 loss team living in the cellar.
As always, here is how STT sizes up the AL West. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Houston Astros (60-102, 30)
As I’ve said on many occasions, I like the way the Astros are rebuilding, they just aren’t going to be anywhere near good enough to compete in 2013. It’s a process. That said, something makes me think they’ll be a little better in 2013 than most people think because a large group of people making similar predictions often shift toward extremity. This is a team that might not have a single 2 win player in 2013, but it’s hard to lose a lot more than 100 games period. The bar is low.
4. Seattle Mariners (75-87, 24)
Locking up Felix Hernandez was a good move and they would have added Justin Upton if not for the player vetoing the move and winding up with the Braves. They bought low on a lot of washed up sluggers and one or two are bound to provide some value in 2013. The Mariners didn’t make any really bad moves, but they failed to make great ones in order to dramatically improve for the upcoming season. I like the young pitching they have coming up from the farm, but it’s not quite ready. 2014 and beyond looks brighter in Seattle, but it’s hard to make a case that the Mariners are serious contenders this year. Any team can over perform and win the second wild card, but that’s the ceiling for Seattle.
3. Oakland Athletics (84-78, 14)
The A’s made some good moves in the offseason adding Chris Young and Jed Lowrie to go with a club that won 94 games last season, but some of those 94 games are going to vanish due to simple regression to the mean. Bob Melvin and the A’s front office are excellent at getting the most out of their players, but I can’t really see this team striking gold twice in a row. It would require none of the young pitching to take a step back and all of their platoon guys to stay locked in, which is asking too much. The A’s are a good team, I just don’t think they’re quite good enough to make the playoffs.
2. Los Angeles Angels (88-74, 9)
The Angels added Josh Hamilton in the offseason to an already stellar lineup that featured the best player from 2012, Mike Trout, and the best player of the last decade, Albert Pujols. But their pitching staff is now short Zach Greinke, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana and full of Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton. The offense is great, but the pitching, by contender standards, is terrible. When you’re counting on C.J. Wilson, Tommy Hanson, Joe Blanton, and Garrett Williams to be 4/5 of your rotation, something isn’t quite right with the preseason predictions that put your among the game’s best.
1. Texas Rangers (91-71, 5)
If you’re a betting man/woman, the Rangers are the buy low team of the season. Everyone and their mother seem to be down on the Rangers right now because they lost Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli and failed to add an Upton or a Greinke. But this is a Rangers team that won 93 games last season and added A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman, not to mention top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt. Darvish has a full season under his belt in the U.S. Why is everyone jumping off the Rangers bandwagon so quickly? This is a team that should be no worse in 2013 than in 2012, which should give you pause when you’re writing their eulogy.
AL West Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL West MVP: Mike Trout
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Lance Berkman
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Texas won’t regret their quiet offseason.
Boldest of the Bold: Houston will win the season series against one divisional opponent.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 30-21
Spring Training begins this week in Florida and Arizona as all thirty MLB teams do their best to prepare themselves for another season. That preparation will be critical to their respective successes and failures, but before anyone gets hurt or anyone has a breakout season, this is how SABR Toothed Tigers thinks the league stacks up.
30. Houston Astros
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the Astros other than that they are a very bad team. The new front office has worked well over the last year to restock the farm system and get them on a path to rebuilding but that has come at the expense of the clubs won-loss record for 2013. The Opening Day payroll will be south of $30 million and the Astros could easily lose another 100 games. The future looks much better for the Astros, but the now is just terrible.
29. Miami Marlins
Entering the 2012 season the Marlins had a new stadium and a revamped club. The ownership committed to higher payrolls and more competitive clubs, but after a rocky start to the season, the Marlins began selling off pieces and completed the process with a full on fire sale in the offseason. Almost nothing remains. The Marlins ownership didn’t like the less than stellar attendance and they decided they weren’t going to pay for a team that didn’t sell tickets. The 2013 Marlins are Giancarlo Stanton and players who are either too young to make any money or two broken to get other offers.
28. Colorado Rockies
Last season was a disaster for the Rockies. They lost Tulowitzki for most of the season and their pitching staff was terrible. A healthy Tulo will help the team and the offense should be okay, but the pitching staff isn’t much of anything. They didn’t do anything to improve the club during the offseason and the return of Tulowitzki can only do so much. With other teams in the NL West adding to their arsenals, the Rockies won’t find room to improve.
27. Minnesota Twins
The Twins pursued two offseason strategies this winter. First, they traded all of their centerfielders. Span to the Nationals and Revere to the Phillies. Second, they signed every pitcher they could find that is coming off an injury hoping for the best. On the face of it, those moves won’t do much for the 2013 team, which could easily lose 95 or more games, but these moves have helped stock an already interesting farm system. The Twins are a couple years away from getting back into things, but they have enough pieces that we shouldn’t expect them to be terrible in an unwatchable sort of way.
26. Cleveland Indians
The Tribe added Nick Swisher and others in free agency and picked up Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer via trade during the offseason to plug up holes in their team, but their main issue is starting pitching and they didn’t do enough to turn themselves into contenders. The Indians have some exciting young position players, but when you’re counting on Swisher to be your top offensive player you’re probably too short on offense and when Justin Masterson is your ace, you’re definitely short on pitching. Editors Note: This ranking was determined as of Saturday Feb. 9th, prior to the beginning of Spring Training. The signing of Michael Bourn is not reflected here.
25. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are moving in the right direction with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer now at the helm and I like their starting pitching for 2013 and beyond. The offense isn’t much to look at and the bullpen isn’t really anything. If you’re hoping for an end to the curse, you should probably shift your hopes until next season.
24. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have Felix Hernandez and a lot of young starting pitching coming, but 2013 won’t be their year. They tried to improve their lineup with a bunch of broken pieces, but it’s going to be a rough offensive season even with shorter fences at Safeco. This is a team that can prevent runs but not one that can score them.
23. Kansas City Royals
The Royals place on this list might seem low, but there are still a lot of problems with this team despite adding James Shields. They probably added a few wins with pitching upgrades, but the offense didn’t improve much other than counting on bounce back seasons. The Royals will probably have more wins than other teams ahead of them on this list, but that will be a function of playing two teams on this list ranked 26th or lower 19 times each. The Royals probably won’t be embarrassing, but I don’t think they’ll be good either.
22. San Diego Padres
The Padres have some good young players in their system and the fences are coming in at Petco Park, but they didn’t do much to improve their team. In a tough division, it’s hard to see them being much better than they were in 2012 especially with their starting catcher spending 50 games on suspension for PED use.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates
In my 2012 Season in Review series I told you I thought the Pirates would finally break the under .500 curse and turn into a winning team for the first time in two decades, but I’ve been talking myself out of it ever since. I think they might still win over 81 games this year, but I think that will be a function of luck and timing rather than true talent. I think the Pirates are the 21st best MLB team, but they might still finish with a record above average.
Come back tomorrow and Thursday for 2013 Preseason Power Rankings 20-11 and 10-1.ets.
Catching Up on All the Moves in Baseball
Last weekend, I had the nerve to go on my honeymoon and missed writing about a lot of baseball trades and signings. To atone for such indiscretions, here’s a post about everything I missed while I was following my wife around the Wizarding World of Harry Potter.
Blue Jays acquire R.A. Dickey from the Mets, Sign Him to an Extension
This deal also included Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas in exchange for John Buck, Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Becerra. The Dickey extension is for two additional seasons and $25 million with a club option for 2016.
This is a very solid deal for the Mets in my book as they deal one year of Dickey plus two less than glamorous pieces for some prospects with really high upsides. d’Arnaud isn’t a sure thing, but he’s a top 10 prospect in baseball who can provide legitimate offense from behind the plate, and the other prospects are also potential contributors in the future. I’m not going to break down each of these guys at length, but the value is good for the Mets.
The Jays gave up a lot, but they also got a lot in return. Thole and Nickeas will be useful, but Dickey could be a difference maker. Over the last three seasons he’s been a great starter and capped it off with a Cy Young this season. He’s old and a knuckleballer, but he’s very effective. He’ll make just $5 million in 2013, so he’s a steal. If he maintains similar levels over the course of the extension, the $12 million per season price tag is a steal. If you buy him as someone who can maintain this level of performance, his 4+ WAR levels are worth about twice what he’ll make over the course of this deal.
The Blue Jays paid a premium for his services via trade, but they are right on the cusp of contention. With the addition of Melky Cabrera, Maizer Iztruis, and most of the Miami Marlins, the Blue Jays are easily within a couple wins of a division title and Dickey could make that difference. We’re not great at predicting baseball down to the precise win totals of a team, but we do have a good idea of about where the Blue Jays will fall in 2013 and we think that will be near a spot in the standings where a couple wins could make a big difference.
Grade (Mets): B+, Grade (Jays): B+
Astros Sign Carlos Pena, 1 year, $2.9 million plus incentives
Pena hits for a low average. He walks and hits homeruns. He’s solid on defense at first. While that makes him a below average player, it makes him like the second best Astro. Houston moves to the AL this season so Pena will largely play the role of DH at Minute Maid Park and should see some time at first.
In context this is a great move, even if it isn’t much of anything on a large scale. Pena should provide some offense for a bad team and they’ll get that offense at likely below market value because he has such a low batting average. Any true contender would have trouble selling a .190 hitter to their fan base, but the Astros don’t have that problem. This should pay off, even if it’s the difference between 67 wins and 69.
Grade: B
Cubs Sign Edwin Jackson, 4 years, $52 million
Edwin Jackson is 29 years old. He has made 31 or more starts in seven straight seasons. In the last six seasons, he’s thrown 183 innings or more each year with an ERA at 4.42 or below. Decent strikeout numbers, a few too many walks.
He’s not great, but he’s been close to a 4 WAR pitcher three of the last four seasons and close to a 3 WAR pitcher in the other. He’s pretty good. If you want him to be your ace, that’s a problem. But he’s better than average. If we figure over the next four seasons that he’ll be somewhere between 2 and 4 WAR, we’d offer him $10-$25 million per season depending on inflationary projections.
Obviously the $25 million is at the very high end and you don’t offer contracts with inflation built in. The Cubs have him for $13 million a year. At that rate, he needs to be worth 2 to 3 wins if there is no inflation (and there will be). He’s hasn’t been worth less than 2 WAR since 2008.
This is a good deal for the Cubs because most people seem to undervalue Jackson because he performs worse than we think he should given the quality of his raw stuff. He feels like he should be a #2, but he’s really been more of a #3 type guy and his ERA tends to look a little bloated at times. If you check the FIP, he looks better.
If he’s the same guy over the next four seasons minus a little aging as he has been for the last four, this deal will work out for the Cubs.
Grade: B
Rangers Sign A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $7.5 million
The Rangers lost out on Greinke, Hamilton, Upton, and pretty much everyone else they’ve wanted in the last twelve months. But gosh darn it, they got A.J.
Former White Sox, jerkish personality aside, this should be a good fit for the Rangers. He’s a durable lefthanded hitting catcher who hits for power. That’s not an easy thing to find. He doesn’t walk, but he rarely strikesout. The defense is suspect at times, but he’s usually commended for his ability to lead staffs.
He’s going to be somewhere between 1 and 3 WAR, just like he has been his whole career, in 2013. If he hits for a lot of power, look toward the high end. If he doesn’t, expect the low end. He’s durable and respectable at the plate. For $7.5 million, you’re only asking him to be better than 1 WAR for it to payoff and he should be able to handle that.
Grade: B+
Brief Thoughts on Minor Moves
Phillies sign Mike Adams: Too long for a reliever, but should help.
Red Sox sign Stephen Drew: One year deals are low risk. Should be a good stop gap with some upside and they have the money to spend.
Rays sign the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona: No bad one year deals and the Rays are good at turning these guys into valuable pieces. Can’t hate it.
Marlins sign Placido Polanco: Past his prime and injury prone. In his heyday, he was a master. Now, he might be more of a bench player than a starter. But the Marlins are terrible, so it’s a decent move.
Pirates sign Francisco Liriano: At 2 years and $14 million, there is some risk he’s terrible and they’re out a non-trivial amount of money. But the Pirates need to thicken up their rotation and he could be useful in the pen if it comes to that. I wouldn’t love this deal, but the dollar value is low enough that it could really be a steal if he finds his form for just one of the seasons.
That should get you caught up on the happenings around the league and I have no plans to walk around theme parks for quite some time. We’re less than two months from pitchers and catchers and we’ll have coverage of everything that happens.
2012 Season in Review: NL Central
Over the last couple weeks, you’ve seen the STT Seasons in Review for each of the six NL Central teams that gave brief overviews of each team’s biggest contributors and how their seasons went. I gave each club a letter grade for 2012 and a rough projection of how I see them stacking up in 2013.
Today, I want to review the division as a whole and paint a broad picture about what it looks like going forward (See you never, Astros!).
This is how things went in 2012:
And here’s how the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds looked from April to October.
The Reds took over by July and the Cardinals pretty much stayed in Wild Card position for most of the season. Each of the Brewers and Pirates made a run at it at different points, but neither could really close the deal. Needless to say, the Cubs and Astros did not really factor into the race.
The NL Central is one of the lesser divisions in the game, but the offense from the Reds, Cards, and Brewers was pretty good. Match that with a Pirates club on the rise and some good pitching from a couple of these teams, and what we really have is a division dragged down by the bottom feeders.
The Reds and Cardinals are good teams. The Brewers are talented but have damaging holes. The Pirates are becoming competitive, but still haven’t become a threat. The Cubs and Astros are a mess. One of these teams is leaving next year, so the division as a whole might get a little better by subtraction.
My bet is that the division will look pretty similar in 2013 when it’s all said and done. Here is my early projection, which is subject to change throughout the offseason:
The key variable here is that these teams have to pick up some wins that normally came at the expense of the Astros in order to keep these win totals up. I guess I’ll have to look at this more closely as I fill in the sheet with the rest of the divisions.
The NL Central MVP goes to Ryan Braun over Yadier Molina and the Cy Young belongs to Johnny Cueto.
Here’s a final summary of the NL Central 2012 Grades and Win totals:
All and all, another fine year in the pitcher-bats-9th Midwestern United States led by the Reds and Cardinals.
2012 Season in Review: Houston Astros
55-107, 6th in the NL Central
The Astros started 2012 preparing for a bleak year and it only got worse. They dealt everyone on the roster who had any kind of name recognition who wasn’t injured and were running out a cast of no names for much of the second half.
For proof, I randomly selected the August 17th starting lineup.
Altuve 2B
Green SS
Pearce 1B
Maxwell LF
Francisco RF
Barnes CF
Castro C
Gonzalez 3B
Keuchel P
I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say 1) That doesn’t even look like a good AAA lineup 2) I don’t know the first names of half of those players 3) I didn’t know who two thirds of those people were until this season. (This paragraph should be emphasized with the fact that compared to the common fan I know who everyone is.)
But a very dark 2012 isn’t reason to fret in Houston. The club is actually moving in the right direction. New GM Jeff Luhnow scorched the earth of the 2012 season to fill his minor league rosters with capable players. He added a lot of talent, and while not much of it is elite, the Astros can now look forward to some decent players coming up through the system.
They also drafted Carlos Correa #1 overall this year and the 17 year old SS has star potential. There is a lot of work to be done through player development, scouting, and Free Agency, but the team is moving forward.
Brad Mills lost the managerial spot late in the year and 2012 Nationals’ 3B coach Bo Porter will assume the role in 2013.
While 55 wins is essentially a replacement level team (i.e. how a AAA team would play in MLB), the Astros weren’t even trying to win this season. They were looking forward 3 or 4 years. This was a franchise in free fall the last couple years and they are now back on the long road to relevance.
They had just three players post WARs above the 2.0 threshold we normally consider MLB starter level (and one was Jed Lowrie who missed much of the second half). 2012 was dismal year on the field but a good one in the front office.
I’d be optimistic for their prospects next season, except they’re moving to the AL West. Moving from baseball’s 5th best division to its best division from 2012, not to mention having to contend with the DH, is going to be an adjustment.
It’s going to be a challenge for the Astros in 2013, but it has to be better than 2012.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 65-97
New English D 