The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
- Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
- Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
- Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
- Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
- Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
- Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
- James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
- Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
- Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until we stop idolizing closers?
I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:
- Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
- High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- Right Handed Specialist
- Left Handed Specialist
- Long Reliever
- Long Reliever
I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.
The Morning Edition (June 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wright homers twice, but the Mets lose Niese in win against the Braves
- Longoria’s 2 HR lift the Rays over the Yanks
- Zimmermann dominates the Rockies, but Oswalt gets 11 K of his own as Nats win 5-1
- Pena walks off on the Crew in 10
- Another Puig HR
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg looks to build on a solid first start back (7p Eastern)
- Cole goes to LA to face Weaver (10p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces similarly named Clayton Richard (10p Eastern)
- Colon and Iwakuma (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who would you honor with the NL All-Star start?
There are a number of good candidates depending on what statistics you value:
WAR:
Wainwright, Harvey, Lee, and Kershaw
FIP:
Harvey, Wainwright, Miller, Kershaw, Lee
ERA:
Kershaw, Locke (!), Miller, Harvey, Corbin, Wainwright, Zimmermann
K/9:
Miller, Burnett, Samardjiza, Harvey, Lynn
Wins (LOL!):
Wainwright, Lee, Corbin, Zimmermann, Lynn, and Marquis
Wainwright is probably having the best season, but I’d be completely happy with Harvey given that the game is at Citi Field and he’s one of the game’s brightest young stars. Kershaw, Lee, and Miller are all very deserving as well. Right now, I’d go with Waino or Harvey. You?
The Morning Edition (June 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey flirts with a no-no, Ks 13 and Wheeler goes 6 scoreless to sweep the DH
- The Sox sweep the Rays in a DH as Gomes walks off
- Goldy walks off in the desert
- Sweeney and Ranson homer to beat Wainwright
- Parker out does Darvish, despite 10 K
- Lee dazzles again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ryu and Kuroda in NY (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez faces Cahill at Chase Field (330p Eastern)
- Chris Sale gets the Twins after the hardest of luck losses last time (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What Tuesday a glimpse into the Mets future?
Matt Harvey pulled into a WAR tie with league leader Adam Wainwright after their starts on Tuesday at 3.8 after a great start featuring 13 K. He has a 2.04 FIP and a nearly 5:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t like to make big proclamations like this, but he’s probably the under 25 pitcher to watch if we’re thinking about who are going to be the game’s best in the next four or five seasons. But his rotation mate was strong too, as far as strikeouts and run prevention go. The walks were a bit of an issue, but Wheeler is young and should improve. I like the Mets rotation, now only if they could play OF on their off days. And if you’re like me and enjoy this kind of thing, here’s what they did on Tuesday:
The Morning Edition (June 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Johnson and De La Rosa both go 7 scoreless, but the Jays score late to win
- The Nats tie it in the 9th, but Brown walks off for the Phils
- The Royals get 2 late runs to beat the Indians 2-1
- 5 good innings for Miller, who leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Matt Harveys come to ATL (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Nationals (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler makes him MLB debut in game two of a DH (7p Eastern)
- Parker and Darvish in Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Sharky and Wainwright in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can the Mets make tomorrow Groundhog Day?
It’s been a tough season for Mets fans, but they should have fun tomorrow. They have ace and Cy Young contender Matt Harvey opening the day, but top prospect Zack Wheeler will make his debut in the night cap. Harvey has already showed himself to be a star, but if Wheeler can be as good as advertised, this could be quite the 1-2 punch for the next 6 seasons. I bet the Giants wish they still had him. Wheeler’s strikeout rate in the minor leagues has been great, but he’ll need to dampen the walks a bit to succeed in the big leagues. Luckily for him, he gets the strikeout prone Braves in his debut.
The Morning Edition (June 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Strasburg erratic, but decent in loss against Kluber’s 8 IP, 8K
- Nieuwenhuis walks off on Marmol, lifts Mets
- Blanks homers late to back Richard and the Padres to their 6th straight win
- Iwakuma struggles as Colon rolls, A’s win 10-2
- The Angels get 5 in the 9th, but Pujols Ks with the tying run on 2nd to lose to the Yanks
- 3 HR lift Wang and the Jays over the Rangers
- Astros sweep the White Sox
- Greinke struggles in first start since brawl, falls to Pirates and Cole
- Lester Ks 8, walks 0 despite giving up 5 ER in 5 innings
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby “Must-Watch” Miller faces the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Liriano faces Leake for NL Central glory (7p Eastern)
- Turner and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we think of the Padres?
I ranked the Padres 22nd coming into the season and 26th and 27th entering May and June in the New English D power rankings, but here they come in the standings with 6 straight wins and the team above .500 to 35-34 and just 2 back in the West. I was bullish on them coming into the season, but the pitching was pretty bad and I sort of gave up. They’re dead last in WAR (-1.9) and in the bottom 3 in park adjusted ERA, FIP, and xFIP. And they haven’t really gotten better in the last few weeks despite going 17-12 over their last 19. They’re surprisingly 5th in position player WAR, but you can’t compete at the big league level with pitching that bad.
The Morning Edition (June 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix throws 7 shutout innings to blank the A’s
- Lance Lynn gives up 7 runs in 5 innings to the Marlins, gets a W
- Cobb is struck in the head with a line drive, Rays win
- Freeman walks off on the Giants
- The bullpen coughs up a Kershaw gem, but wins in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg comes off the DL to face NERD darling Corey Kluber (1p Eastern)
- Lester tries to get back on track versus the O’s (130p Eastern)
- Greinke against Cole in Pittsburgh (130p Eastern)
- CC and Weaver face off in LA (330p Eastern)
- Iwakuma and Colon in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Ian Kennedy tries to go an entire game without committing a felony (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Do we live in a world where Iwakuma and Colon is the most intriguing pitching matchup?
So I’m pretty up and up on which players are having the best seasons and wasn’t expecting to be surprised, but here we are, with Hunter Pence at #12 among position players with a 3.0 WAR. Now Pence isn’t a bad player, but he’s generally been a 2-4 win player in his career with a high water mark of 4.4 in 2011. He’s already 2/3 of the way there in just 67 games. He’s had this type of offensive season before (139 wRC+) but he’s never hit this well during a good defensive season and he’s never run the bases this well according to the advanced metrics. If he keeps this up, he’ll get a nice lump of money from an organization that doesn’t care about a below average walk rate. And…the Phillies have already signed him to a 5 year deal…
The Morning Edition (June 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8 innings, allowed 0 ER, and struck out 14. Against the Astros. He lost.
- Buehrle looks good, blanks the Rangers over 7
- Bumgarner is brilliant against the Braves, 10K
- Fernandez K’s 10 to beat the Cards
- Dusty Baker actually used Chapman in a non-save situation, helping Jay Bruce homer the Reds to victory
- Moore struggles in loss to the Royals (about to lose Appointment TV status)
- The Indians walk off the Nats, Masterson K’s 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kershaw pitches at PNC (4p Eastern)
- Cobb faces the Royals (4p Eastern)
- Felix tries to slow the A’s (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann vs Kazmir (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we still even keeping track of wins after what happened to Sale tonight?
Chris Sale went the distance, gave up no earned runs, and struck out 14 Astros and lost. Basically, you can give up 7 ER in 7 IP and get a win and give up 0 ER in 8 innings and lose. So these make sense. But much more notably, MLB handed down suspensions for the Dbacks and Dodgers brawl today and kept it pretty toothless. Belesario threw punches and got one game. Ian Kennedy got 10 games, but he’s only going to miss one start. The managers only got one game. It doesn’t look like MLB wants to curb this behavior, even thought it’s essentially felonious. Other than that, I just have to plug Rick Porcello again, because he’s turning into a star.
The Morning Edition (June 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright and Harvey don’t disappointed, combining for 14 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 3 BB, and 13 K as the Cards win 2-1
- The Cubs walk off the Reds in 14
- Parker and Kuroda pitch to a draw, the A’s win in 18
- Cain gives the Giants 6.2 scoreless as they beat the Pirates
- Tulo likely facing a “lengthy absence” after breaking rib
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore tries to avoid being dropped from the Appointment Television list against the Royals (7p Eastern)
- Westbrook comes of the DL to face Fernandez (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Medlen in ATL (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe our marquee matchup last night lived up to the hype?
After yesterday’s duel, Adam Wainwright (4.0) and Matt Harvey (3.3) are 1st and 3rd in pitcher WAR, only separated by Anibal Sanchez (3.4). In fact, Wainwright and Harvey are the only two pitchers in the top five who don’t play for the Tigers. It is perhaps worth noting that Wainwright and Harvey are excellent examples as to why the pitcher wins statistic is not useful for evaluating performance. Wainwright has a 2.18 ERA and 1.78 FIP. Harvey has a 2.04 ERA and 2.15 FIP. Harvey leads in K/9, Wainwright leads in BB/9 and HR/9, but both are great in each category. By all reasonable accounts, Wainwright and Harvey are two of the top few pitchers in the league. But Wainwright is 10-3 and Harvey is 5-1. Among the pitchers with more wins than Harvey is Jason Hammel, who features a 5.24 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 0.4 WAR. Pitcher won-loss record is nonsense.
And now, because they’re awesome:
The Morning Edition (June 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox and Rays enter into Game of the Year territory (see below)
- Bailey rolls over the Cubs with 8 innings, 0 ER
- A fog delay at US Cellular
- Another Kershaw-y Kershaw start
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gerrit Cole makes his MLB debut against the Giants (7p Eastern)
- Lester starts after Monday’s marathon game (7p Eastern)
- Turner tries to stay hot in Miami (7p Eastern)
- Wacha against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- CC and Colon in Oakland, I’ll leave the jokes to you (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe that game in Tampa last night?
So here’s what happened, briefly. Alex Cobb started and got shelled. 6 run first. But the Rays clawed back. 2 in the first and 1 in each of the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th. 6-6. In the 10th, the Sox got two to take the lead, then Andrew Bailey had the meltdown to end all meltdowns and sent it hurling forward deeper into the night. It ended, finally, when Nava singled home Victorino in the 14th and the Sox added another for good measure. Just for reference, one of the more incredible win expectancy graphs you will ever see:
The Morning Edition (June 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marlins win a 20 inning marathon against the Mets
- Darvish and Buehrle both go 7, but it takes 18 for the Jays to beat the Rangers
- Danks goes 8 as the Sox win with 3 in the 8th over the A’s
- Pettitte wins #250 against the Mariners
- Gausman gets shelled, again
- Twins beat the Nats in 11
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Twins (1p Eastern)
- Moore tries to shake off his last outing against the O’s (130p Eastern)
- The still underappreciated Felix Hernandez gets the Yankees (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So the Marlins and Mets, eh?
Let’s review. The Mets and Marlins were tied 1-1 after 9 innings of baseball. At this point, Harvey and Fernandez had both been strong and the bullpens had combined for 5 scoreless innings. There were still 11 innings left. In the innings that followed two pitchers would each throw more than both team’s starters! Slowey went 7 in relief, allowing 8 hits, 0 BB, and 8 K. Marcum went 8, allowing 5 hits and a run with 0 BB and 8 K. That’s right, the Mets walked 2 batters in 20 innings and lost. Only twice in MLB history has a team lost a game in which they walked 2 or fewer hitters in 18 or more innings. Perhaps even more remarkable, this was the 2nd 15+ inning game between the clubs this year starter by Fernandez and Harvey.
New English D 