The Morning Edition (May 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Lorenzo Cain drives in 2 in the first to back Guthrie’s CGSO against the White Sox
- Jose Fernandez allows 1 hit in 7 innings while striking out 9 Phillies in his first ML win
- Strasburg gives up 2 homeruns in 7 innings, but the Nats score 1 in the top of the 9th to outlast the Bucs
- Wainwright struggles for the first time (5 ER in 5.1 IP), but the Cards deliver in the 9th to win
- Dickey gets lit up by the Mariners, Blue Jays fall 8-1
- Hughes throws 8 scoreless as the Yanks top the A’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Hudson tries to an encore to his 200th win against Niese and the Mets (1p Eastern)
- Halladay looks to straighten out again against the Marlins (230p Eastern)
- Jon Lester. Yu Darvish. Arlington, Texas. (3p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb takes his hot start to Coors Field (4p Eastern)
- Strikeout happy Ryu gets struggling ace Matt Cain at AT&T (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- On a day in which Strasburg and Wainwright were on the mound, how did Guthrie, Fernandez, and Hughes headline the night? (Well, Scherzer did his part!)
R.A. Dickey…what’s going on? I certainly expected some regression from the 2012 peak in moving to the AL and a hitter friendly park, but this is pretty serious so far. We’re not deep enough into the season to totally dismiss a small sample size issue, but it’s getting to the point where it just doesn’t look like he’s going to pitch at or around ace levels for the foreseeable future. He’s 2-5 in 7 starts over 42 IP with a 7.07 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9 to go with a 5.36 ERA and 5.19 FIP. Granted, FIP isn’t a great judge of knuckleballers, but the other numbers don’t exactly hearten Blue Jays fans or Dickey fantasy owners (the present author included). If you go back to the much more reasonable 2010-2011 seasons, Dickey’s numbers this year don’t match those either. His strikeouts are up, but his walks are too. His ERA is way up, but his groundball rate is down considerably. That’s the item on the list that catches my attention the most. I haven’t watch Dickey enough to know, but I’m curious if this is the league figuring him out. Maybe he’s not much different and hitters are just getting smarter. I’m not sure, and I know there is some injury talk, but either way, the Mets are starting to look like even better for the offseason deal. The Jays can still turn it around if Dickey finds his groove, but I’m starting to wonder if he will.
The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
The Morning Edition (April 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain came after the 7th inning in Boston as what can only be described as a mercy rule, with the A’s winning 13-0
- Wainwright finally walks someone, but K’s 9 in 8.1 innings as the Cards blank the Nats 2-0
- The Braves top the Rox in Game 1 of a double-header in 23 (!) degree weather
What I’m Watching Today:
- Samarzija and Latos battle at GABP (1230p Eastern)
- Strasburg gets Garcia as the Nats and Cards face off (1p Eastern)
- Halladay faces the Pirates coming off two strong outings (7p Eastern)
- MATT HARVEY against the Dodgers (7p Eastern)
- Guys, MATT HARVEY.
The Big Question:
- Why aren’t you watching Matt Harvey yet?!
So obviously, I’ve written a good deal about Matt Harvey in this post and in previous iterations thereof, but let’s admire Adam Wainwright today because Adam Wainwright is awesome. He missed all of 2011 with TJ surgery after two very strong seasons and came back in 2012 nearly as good as before. If there was question last season, it’s gone now. He’s back and on a mission. Here’s the line to admire:
4-1, 37.1 innings, 8.92 K/9, 0.24 BB/9, 1.93 ERA, 1.12 FIP, 1.9 WAR
Want me to blow your mind more? I will. That line is in spite of a .340 BABIP. For context, that’s like a Rick Porcello BABIP. When guys make contact, they’re getting their hits. He’s just not letting anyone on via the free pass and he’s striking them out when he needs to. Watch out NL Central.
The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
The Morning Edition (April 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox triumph over the Royals in their return to action, Big Papi says the f-word to celebrate, and Neil Diamond belts out “Sweet Caroline” at Fenway
- Hellickson outduels Parker as the Rays beat the A’s 1-0
- Harper homers twice as the Nats beat the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Royals and Sox play two at Fenway, featuring prospect Allen Webster’s debut in the nightcap (130p and 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann, coming off his first career CG, takes on the Mets at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Brandon McCarthy tries to right the ship after three rocky outings, but has to face the Rockies at Coors (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until “This is our f-ing city” t-shirts starting selling outside Fenway? Six hours?
I promise this section will get more interesting once we have more that 15 games of information to talk about, and I’ll eventually stop referring to sample size, but one particular player who is near the top of the WAR leaderboard caught my eye; Brandon Crawford. The Giants shortstop is known for his glove, but his bat is doing some damage during the couple weeks of the season. In his career, he’s been a .240-.250 type hitter with very little power. In 696 plate appearances entering the season, he had 7 homeruns. He already has 3 in 68 as I write this. His .248/.304/.349 slash line last year was indicative of the type of player most people expect him to be. His wRC+ last year was 79. He’s not a black hole type hitter, but he relies on his glove. This season? This season he’s tearing the cover of the ball so far. He has 3 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .317/.397/.533, good for a 160 wRC+. He’s 5th in baseball in position player WAR at 10:53pm on April 20th. I’m not saying this means he’s going to be a good hitter going forward, not at all. It’s too early to suggest a given hitter is a new man, but I’m telling you he’s been crazy good so far this year. That’s remarkable in its own right. You want to know which players hit .310/.390/.530 or better in 2012? Trout, Braun, Posey, Cabrera, McCutchen. That’s it. That’s the whole list.
For the first three weeks of 2013, Brandon Crawford has hit like the top finishers in last year’s MVP races. Baseball is fun.
How Was The Game? (April 14, 2013)
A big win.
Tigers 10, A’s 1
It went like this for the Tigers on Sunday. Score early, score often, don’t let them score. When that happens, as it did for them today, you win and win easily. The Tigers scored twice in each of the first two innings, four times in the fourth frame, and once each in the 7th and 8th, while allowing just one run in the bottom of the 4th. Sanchez struckout 8 over 7 innings and Porcello delivered two easy innings in relief to get some work in due to the upcoming off day that will allow the Tigers to skip him this time through the rotation. Austin Jackson had 4 hits including his first homerun, scored 3 runs, and drove in 3 ahead of Torii Hunter who had 3 hits of his own. Every starter except Infante had at least one hit in the big offensive effort that included 14 hits and 5 walks. The Tigers improve to 7-5 on the season after taking their third consecutive series as they slowed down the hot A’s this weekend in Oakland. They’ll head north to Seattle for a three game series starting Tuesday and will send Doug Fister to the hill against Aaron Harang.
The Moment: Hunter slides around the tag at home to score the second run of the game in the first inning.
How Was The Game? (April 13, 2013)
Closer than it needed to be.
Tigers 7, A’s 3
Needing a boost after a tough 12 inning loss on Friday, the Tigers called on Justin Verlander. Verlander was only able toss six innings thanks to a long, laborious 4th, but he was effective, allowing just 1 run and striking out 6. The offense carried the day thanks in part to homeruns from Hunter, Fielder, and Peralta. The bullpen struggled again with Alburquerque, Coke, and Benoit piecing together the final nine outs while allowing two runs. For a game in which the Tigers offense put up 7 runs and sent Verlander to the hill, this one felt too close in the late innings. The Tigers’ relievers need to get a handle on their command in a hurry or we’re going to have some high antacid bills coming this summer. It certainly didn’t help that Dotel, Downs, and Smyly were unavailable due to workload concerns with the lefties and an elbow issue with Dotel, but you need to be able to trust your bullpen to hold a six run lead. With today’s win the Tigers improve to 6-5 and send Anibal Sanchez to the hill against Jarrod Parker tomorrow looking for a third straight series win.
The Moment: Torii Hunter launches a long 2-out homerun in the 3rd inning.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
2013 Season Preview: American League West
In an awesome and surprising turn of events, the Oakland A’s won the West in 2012 after the Angels spent a ton of money and the Rangers led wire to wire. It was the kind of thing Hollywood would laugh at for being unrealistic, but it happened.
This year, the hapless Houston Astros join the party. They won’t be hapless forever, but this year looks likely to be a mess in the space city. The West was arguably the best division in 2012 and should be good again in 2013 despite a potential 100 loss team living in the cellar.
As always, here is how STT sizes up the AL West. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Houston Astros (60-102, 30)
As I’ve said on many occasions, I like the way the Astros are rebuilding, they just aren’t going to be anywhere near good enough to compete in 2013. It’s a process. That said, something makes me think they’ll be a little better in 2013 than most people think because a large group of people making similar predictions often shift toward extremity. This is a team that might not have a single 2 win player in 2013, but it’s hard to lose a lot more than 100 games period. The bar is low.
4. Seattle Mariners (75-87, 24)
Locking up Felix Hernandez was a good move and they would have added Justin Upton if not for the player vetoing the move and winding up with the Braves. They bought low on a lot of washed up sluggers and one or two are bound to provide some value in 2013. The Mariners didn’t make any really bad moves, but they failed to make great ones in order to dramatically improve for the upcoming season. I like the young pitching they have coming up from the farm, but it’s not quite ready. 2014 and beyond looks brighter in Seattle, but it’s hard to make a case that the Mariners are serious contenders this year. Any team can over perform and win the second wild card, but that’s the ceiling for Seattle.
3. Oakland Athletics (84-78, 14)
The A’s made some good moves in the offseason adding Chris Young and Jed Lowrie to go with a club that won 94 games last season, but some of those 94 games are going to vanish due to simple regression to the mean. Bob Melvin and the A’s front office are excellent at getting the most out of their players, but I can’t really see this team striking gold twice in a row. It would require none of the young pitching to take a step back and all of their platoon guys to stay locked in, which is asking too much. The A’s are a good team, I just don’t think they’re quite good enough to make the playoffs.
2. Los Angeles Angels (88-74, 9)
The Angels added Josh Hamilton in the offseason to an already stellar lineup that featured the best player from 2012, Mike Trout, and the best player of the last decade, Albert Pujols. But their pitching staff is now short Zach Greinke, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana and full of Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton. The offense is great, but the pitching, by contender standards, is terrible. When you’re counting on C.J. Wilson, Tommy Hanson, Joe Blanton, and Garrett Williams to be 4/5 of your rotation, something isn’t quite right with the preseason predictions that put your among the game’s best.
1. Texas Rangers (91-71, 5)
If you’re a betting man/woman, the Rangers are the buy low team of the season. Everyone and their mother seem to be down on the Rangers right now because they lost Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli and failed to add an Upton or a Greinke. But this is a Rangers team that won 93 games last season and added A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman, not to mention top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt. Darvish has a full season under his belt in the U.S. Why is everyone jumping off the Rangers bandwagon so quickly? This is a team that should be no worse in 2013 than in 2012, which should give you pause when you’re writing their eulogy.
AL West Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL West MVP: Mike Trout
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Lance Berkman
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Texas won’t regret their quiet offseason.
Boldest of the Bold: Houston will win the season series against one divisional opponent.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11
Yesterday I gave you the bottom third of my 2013 Preseason Rankings and today I present you with the middle third. Remember, this is how I view the quality of each team for 2013 and not how many wins I believe each team will accumulated. For example, I have the #21 Pirates winning more games than the team ahead of them because I expect them to have an easier time in their own division and think they’ll benefit from more good fortune as well.
20. Boston Red Sox
It’s been a rough 18 months for the Red Sox, but they enter 2013 without the weight of big contracts or expectations. They shed payroll thanks to the big spending Dodgers and made smaller commitments to free agents this offseason like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, David Ross, Johnny Gomes, and Ryan Dempster. The Sox have a pitching staff that should bounce back to some degree in 2013 and adding Joel Hanrahan should thicken up the back end of the pen. I think the Sox will be respectable this season, but I couldn’t make a case for them in the top half of the teams in the league and felt more comfortable calling them the 20th best team for 2013.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a pretty good offensive team led by Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, but their pitching is somewhat suspect. Without any serious moves to improve their rotation or bullpen, I couldn’t do much to move them up this list. Expect the Crew to hit well, but I can’t see them preventing enough runs to make a postseason run.
18. New York Mets
I think the Mets are one elite outfielder and one pretty good outfielder away from being a legitimate playoff contender. They have a franchise player in David Wright and some nice supporting pieces on offense, but that usually won’t be enough to knock on the door of 90 wins. I’m a huge fan of the Mets rotation, even without Dickey in 2013 and think the bullpen should be better than it was a season ago. I don’t think this is the year for the Mets, but I also think they are a lot better than people think.
17. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a great 2012 season, but that greatness came on the backs of a lot of good fortune. I find it hard to believe they’ll be as lucky in extra inning and one run games again in 2013 and they also didn’t make any upgrades to the roster. A full season of Manny Machado will help and Dylan Bundy may get a chance to make an impact, but I’m expecting a low to mid 80s win total rather than a mid 90s one.
16. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are just a really average team. They have some frontline arms, but not much depth in the rotation or the pen for my taste. A lot of their bats have breakout potential, but they’re also very inconsistent. We saw last season, with much of the same roster, that a team like this can have a few good months, but they almost never hold up over a full season. This is an 80-85 win team in its purest form.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks made a lot of moves this offseason. They dealt Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Trevor Bauer, but got back Martin Prado, and many prospects and depth pieces. I think their pitching depth is phenomenal, but I think their top tier is lacking. On offense they have a lot of players I really like, but also have holes and question marks. This is a pretty good team and their ranking is more a function of how I feel about other teams than how I feel about them. While I told you I couldn’t put the Red Sox higher than 15th, I should probably say I can’t imagine putting the Dbacks any lower than this.
14. Oakland Athletics
Oakland is going to need some good luck to get back to 94 wins this season, but Billy Beane and they A’s had a nice offseason. They added some low cost high upside pieces that I think will pay off, but if last year’s formula is going to work, a lot of players are going to have to repeat career best type performances. I’m not sure they can do that, but I’d look for them to remain relevant into September.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have an incredible top three in their rotation and one of baseball’s best relievers anchoring their pen. They also have a great middle infield and an up and coming centerfielder. I worry deeply about everything else. They are a mess in the corners and their catcher is out for the first twenty five games of the season. This team has the ability to be very good, but I think their floor is also pretty low as well. I like them enough to put them in the top 13, but they could easily fall back if some of their gambles start to turn sour quickly.
12. New York Yankees
The Yankees are aging, but they’re still a talented team even if they aren’t the best team in the league anymore. The top of the rotation is good, but it lacks depth and offensive side is deep even if their star power is waning. A playoff berth wouldn’t surprise me for the Yanks, but I think they’ll be just on the outside this year.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
They spent a ton of money via free agency and trades, but I’m still not sold on the Dodgers as a great team. They’re weak at 3B, 2B and potentially in the corner outfield spots depending on health. They have an excellent top two in the rotation, but I don’t love it south of there. The Dodgers are a good team, but paying Crawford and Gonzalez $40 million a season doesn’t scream playoff berth. You know how I know that? The Red Sox have already tried it twice.
Check back tomorrow for spots 10-1.
New English D 