The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
- Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
- Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
- Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
- Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
- Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?
So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.
How Was The Game? (April 11, 2013)
Freezing cold and raining, but a nice easy win.
Tigers 11, Blue Jays 1
The Tigers jumped out to an early lead and chased Josh Johnson during a 5 run 2nd inning and added 4 more in the 5th to put this one out of reach easily. Despite the nasty weather, Doug Fister had no trouble silencing the Jays’ bats, twirling 8 innings of 1 run baseball enroute to his second win of the season. Only Dirks failed to register a hit among the Tigers starters and he did his part with a nice assist from the outfield in the 3rd inning. The bats punished the Jays and Fister cruised on the way to a series win and a 4-2 homestand today, leaving the Tigers 5-4 as they hop on a plane and head west for nine games in Oakland, Seattle, and Los Angeles. We’ll be staying up late tomorrow night to watch Max Scherzer go toe to toe with Bartolo Colon from O.co Coliseum.
Also of note, if you’re just dying for stats, is that after 9 games, the Tigers have 6 everyday players with OBPs north of .370. That bodes well.
The Moment: Miguel Cabrera triples to deep RCF in the 2nd inning
How Was The Game? (April 10, 2013)
It got away from us.
Blue Jays 8, Tigers 6
The day began with a two hour and twenty-nine minute rain delay and ended with a whimper in the face of a home plate umpire who wanted to go home. The Tigers jumped ahead with a run in the first and second innings and a strong opening from Rick Porcello and entered the fifth inning up 2-0. Porcello gave up a run in the top half and the offense broke out in the bottom half as the Tigers chased Buehrle and worked some walks to take a 6-1 lead. But it unraveled quickly as the Porcello allowed a couple quick baserunners in the 6th and was promptly pulled by Leyland for Downs who let Porcello’s baserunners come around. It would be no better in the 7th as Villarreal walked three batters without recording and out and yielded to Dotel who allowed all of them to score. The comic relief came in the 8th inning as Octavio Dotel took a comebacker directly between his legs, resulting in a short delay while his teammates laughed at him.
The Tigers bats weren’t as ferocious today as they were yesterday, but still managed to put up 6 runs against a solid Jays team. Porcello pitched well for most of the game even if the line doesn’t show it because he got yanked in the midst of a rough inning. The bullpen was the trouble today at Comerica Park, but we were treated to a Prince Fielder infield single. Regardless, the Tigers will send Doug Fister to the mound tomorrow against Josh Johnson with a shot to take the series.
The Moment: Octavio Dotel takes a groundball in a personal area in the 8th.
How Was The Game? (April 9, 2013)
A nice clear win.
Tigers 7, Blue Jays 3
The Tigers extra base power was on display at Comerica Park today as Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila hit homeruns while Fielder, Hunter, and Tuiasosopo each added doubles. Cabrera also chipped in with 4 hits in order to outdo Torii Hunter who added 3 on way to his 2,000th career knock. Anibal Sanchez did his part with 7IP featuring 8K, 1BB, and 2ER. It was, all in all, a well played game by the Tigers as they moved to 4-3 on the season while knocking off the buzzworthy, but struggling Jays. Yet, none of this was the story from Tuesday’s game. Thanks to a cut on Victor Martinez’s finger, Don Kelly ended up playing LF. This would prove to be a sage choice by Jim Leyland as JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to left field that had homerun distance in the 2nd inning. Unfortunately for Mr. Arecibia, Don Kelly takes no prisoners.
Here, for you viewing pleasure, is Don Kelly taking a homerun away from Arencibia. It shall also double as today’s The Moment. Man, Don Kelly is just awesome.
Good luck trying to drop one in on the Tigers when this is their worst outfielder.
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
The Morning Edition (April 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- BJ Upton hits a game tying homerun in the 9th inning against the Cubs, Justin Upton follows him with a walk off
- The Nats top the Reds in 11 innings
- Albert Pujols’ big day powers the Angels past the Rangers
- Kershaw blanks the Pirates over 7 innings in LA
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Dickey face off in Toronto (1p Eastern)
- Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez makes his MLB debut at Citi Field (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg looks to follow his excellent opening day against the Reds (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Angels in his near perfecto encore (8p Eastern)
- Lots of other aces in action including: Sabathia, Verlander, Cueto, Samardizija, Shields, Hamels, Price, Sale, Wainwright, Cain, and Weaver
The Big Question:
- What first week standouts will carry their success into week two of the season?
The first week of the MLB season is always exciting but it is often hard to distinguish between players because of very small sample sizes. I’m looking forward to seeing which players level out and regress to the mean and which players are in for better and worse than expected seasons. We really want to make meaningful conclusions about these games, but it’s just too early. That said, aside from Chris Davis, here are a couple players I’m watching at the start of week two to see if they are candidates for early season standout status:
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Justin Upton
- Chase Utley
- Austin Jackson
None of those players are surprises, they just have my attention for now for various reasons. The first two are on new clubs, Utley looks healthy, and Jackson is a talented guy entering his prime on a great club.
Thanks for reading New English D this week and we look forward to talking baseball with you throughout the season.
The Morning Edition (April 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Yu Darvish nearly twirls the 24th perfect game in MLB history in his first start of the season in Houston.
- Robinson Cano fired Scott Boras and hired Jay-Z to be his agent. That was not my attempt at humor, but rather something that actually occurred. This should be a sign that Cano plans to stay in New York.
- Arencibia struggled to handle Dickey’s knuckleball in a 4-1 loss to the Tribe.
- The Orioles exploded for 5 in the 7th to beat the Rays 7-4. Price gave up 2 runs in 6 innings.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay makes his season debut against the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey looks to pick up where last season ended against the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Lincecum and Beckett duel in a battle of pitchers in need of a bounce back season (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will the pitchers coming off bad seasons and injuries fare as the open the season?
The big story last night was obviously Yu Darvish who flirted with perfection in Houston against the Astros. He struck out 14 in 8 2/3 innings and didn’t allow a baserunner until there were two outs in the 9th. The Rangers ace looked dominant even if it was against the league’s worst team. His pitch count was elevated early on due to the numerous strikeouts, but he increased his efficiency in the middle innings to temper the worry about a potential pitch count meets perfect game quandary. Bowa and Ripkin on MLB Tonight said they wouldn’t let him go more than 105 in his first start, but Padres fan and host Matt Vasgersian reminded them that some teams fans have never seen a no-hitter and those shouldn’t be cast aside lightly. It was a fun night staying up with Darvish and his quest, even if it ultimately came up short. We’ve only seen 23 perfect games in MLB history and it’s always great to follow along with one, but it’s actually even rarer to see some lose it to the final batter. Darvish becomes just the 11th pitcher to lose a perfect game to the 27th batter. He was masterful and clearly in midseason form in what made for the most exciting game of the young season (Take that Kershaw!). Man, I can’t wait to see Verlander face the Astros. It’s good to have baseball back.
The Morning Edition (April 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bryce Harper backed a great performance from Stephen Strasburg with 2 HR
- Clayton Kershaw twirled a CGSO and homered
- Justin Upton homered in his Braves debut
- The Brewers and Angels both won in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price begins his Cy Young defense against the O’s in Tampa (3p Eastern)
- The new look Blue Jays begin their season behind R.A. Dickey (7p Eastern)
- Darvish looks to help the Rangers against the undefeated Astros (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What will Hyun-Jin Ryu’s debut look like in LA? (10p Eastern)
It was an exciting Opening Day and today’s abbreviated schedule looks to pact a slightly less forceful punch despite some exciting talent toeing the rubber. I’ll have my eye on the Blue Jays, especially to see if they can get off on the right foot. Check back each and every morning for musings from around the league. As the season gets a little further along, this will become a place for more analysis and debate.
2013 Season Preview: American League East
The East is kind of a mess. Boston is coming off a terrible year and a payroll reset. The Orioles had a magical 2012 and did nothing to bolster their club. The Yankees are dropping like flies. The Rays retooled. The Blue Jays got a makeover. Everything is different, but everything also looks kind of similar.
Like, I mean, could any of these teams win 90 and any of them win 75? I think so.
As always, here is how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85, 20)
If everything goes right for the Sox, I can totally see them making a run at a wild card spot, I just don’t feel as confident that they can put it all together as I do about the other teams in the division. They added a lot of players who could provide value, but they didn’t add a lot in terms of difference makers. Dempster and Victorino and Napoli will make the team better, but there are a lot of injury question marks and starting pitchers who I just don’t know how to project. The Sox have talent, I’m just not sure how it’s going to manifest. They won’t be an embarrassment but I don’t expect them in the playoffs.
4. Baltimore Orioles (82-80, 17)
The O’s had a great run in 2012 but 93 wins is a tough act to follow and some modest regression is bound to happen. They also failed to do anything to upgrade the roster that might have given them a shot to repeat last season. This is an average club in a deep division.
3. New York Yankees (85-77, 12)
The Yankees are pinching pennies ahead of the 2014 luxury tax threshold and it’s showing on their 2013 roster. They got outbid by the Pirates on a catcher and can probably only count on superstar performance from Robinson Cano. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have good players like Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia or good supporting pieces like Ichiro and Brett Gardner. The Yankees aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a very good team.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75, 8)
The Jays added a ton of talent this offseason including Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. That’s a lot of wins added to the roster in addition to hopefully an additional half season from Jose Bautista and a bounce back from Rickey Romero. If everything goes right, the Jays could be one of the best teams in the AL. But I’m a bit more conservative on my prediction for them because they added a lot of talent, but it isn’t without question marks. If they play to their potential and stay healthy, they’re a force, but there is fragility among these players. The Jays should be contenders, but I’m not buying them as favorites.
1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71, 3)
The Rays have insane pitching depth, the best manager and front office in the game, and have a history of replacing players who have become too expensive. I see no reason why that won’t work out for them again in 2013 as they ride one of the game’s best five staffs to a division title and a playoff berth.
AL East Cy Young: Matt Moore
AL East MVP: Evan Longoria
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Josh Johnson
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Ichiro will return to form
Boldest of the Bold: The Yankees will seriously listen to trade offers for either Cano or Granderson in July.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 10-1
Over the last two days, SABR Toothed Tigers has released our 2013 MLB Preseason Power Rankings 30-21 and 20-11. Today, we complete the series and take you all the way through number one.
Remember, this list is designed to represent the expected performance of each team in 2013, but not necessarily the win totals of each team. For example, I project the Red Sox to be a better team than the Pirates but I expect the Pirates to win more games as a function of their league, division, and better relationship with an almighty deity than the team from Boston. Check back tomorrow for my Preseason Standings Prediction.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are a very deep team with talent at about every position. The middle infield is a bit iffy going forward but those are two of the less important offensive positions and the rest of their lineup more than makes up for it. The rotation is a good mix of veterans and talented youngsters and the bullpen has a lot of exciting pieces. Nothing about the Cardinals makes me say “wow!” but everything about them makes me think they’re a very good team. I also can’t ignore the incredible comebacks/magic/voodoo/etc of the last two seasons. It’s usually not right to expect weird things to keep happening like that, but I’m not really looking to tempt fate.
9. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are an interesting team because I can talk myself into a lot of different places on this list for them. Probably more so than any other team expect the Dodgers. They added Josh Hamilton, but lost Torii Hunter who was worth more than Hamilton in 2012. They’ll have an everyday role for Peter Bourjos who is among the very best defensive players walking the Earth and Albert Pujols likely won’t struggle as much as he did last April in any month of 2013. In just looking at the offense and defense, I would imagine the Angels should be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. But the pitching looks a lot worse. Jered Weaver should be the same as always and CJ Wilson likely won’t improve upon his 2012 numbers because he simply isn’t that good. After them, instead of Greinke or Haren, you have Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, and stuff. This rotation is pretty good if you want to win 80 games, but I think it’s awful if you want to win 95 like the Angels do. This team has the best player in the league (Trout), the best player of his era (Pujols), and a player with an impossibly high ceiling (Hamilton), but I just can’t bring myself to bet any higher on them with such a suspect pitching staff.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays did excellent work this offseason adding Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, RA Dickey, and others. They are a much better team than they were in 2012 and could also get a full season from Jose Bautista. Even with expected regression from Edwin Encarnacion, this should be a team that scores runs and pitches well. I think they’ll be right in the thick of the AL East race and should also contend for a wild card. My reservations about placing them higher deal with a lot of injury question marks. Bautista is recovering from a wrist injury and hand and wrist injuries tend to have a negative effect on power. I’m not saying he’ll have a down season, but I think it’s more likely than it was before he got hurt. Additionally, while I think Josh Johnson is fantastic, he is also very fragile. Who knows what Melky Cabrera can do without the help of PEDs? Brandon Morrow missed significant time last season. Something was obviously wrong with Ricky Romero, right? So while on paper this is a talented team with a great chance at October baseball, there are concerns large enough to keep them at number eight.
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants return an excellent pitching staff and good defensive club. A full season of Scutaro and Pence should be a marginal improvement, but losing the great “wind-aided” performance of Melky Cabrera will hurt with no clear replacement lined up. If Pablo Sandoval is healthy and Brandon Belt is allowed to do his thing without interference from a silly manager, this team should be on par with last year’s division winning club. It’s a good bullpen and the park tends to work in favor of the team’s design, so I’m willing to bet the Buster Posey led Giants are making another deep run into the postseason.
6. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds should have no trouble winning the NL Central if they are able to remain as healthy as their counterparts. They have the amazing Joey Votto at first and an average to above average player pretty much everywhere. They rotation remained perfectly intact last year and Aroldis Chapman is coming to help them out even more in 2013. With the addition of Choo, the maturing of Cozart and Fraizer, and the continued success of Bruce and Phillips, I can’t really see a glaring whole other than defense in centerfield. This is an all-around good club.
5. Texas Rangers
A lot of people are down on the 2013 Rangers because they didn’t sign or trade for any of their big offseason targets, but I think that means they’re very underrated. If we look at the 2012 Rangers as a pretty true 93 win club who had a bad week at the end, when we compare them to the 2013 version, they hold up great. The pitching should be essentially the same with perhaps a better performance by the adapting Darvish. On offense, they dropped Michael Young’s negative WAR at DH for Lance Berkman and will return everyone else except Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt can easily combine with Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin to approximate the ~4WAR season of Josh Hamilton and AJ Pierzynski steps in to replace Napoli who had a down year on a team that won 93 games. While it can be said that the Rangers missed out on getting a lot better, they also failed to really get worse. This is the overlooked team of the year if you’re into making those types of wagers.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves added a lot this offseason (see: Uptons, all) but they also lost a good amount in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. I like Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman to breakout in compliment with Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The starting pitching is deep and the bullpen is second to none. The Braves aren’t the most exciting team in the league to me, but I think they have the highest floor. It’s hard for me to imagine them having much worse than an upper 80s win season.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
I’m higher on the Rays than most because I’ve seen them over-perform too many times not to believe. Their starting pitching is in the top five and their bullpen always works. They’ve added Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar on offense and are hoping for a full season of Evan Longoria to go with the soon to be called up Wil Myers. Top to bottom, the Rays are probably in the 6-10 range as far as talent goes, but they are so well run from top to bottom, that they will get more out of that talent than the other teams on this list.
2. Detroit Tigers
The 2012 Tigers underperformed and won 88 games. In 2013, they will add Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter and a full season of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They lost nothing of substance from the roster should get at least modest bounce back seasons from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. That is all by way of saying, it’s hard to see how they aren’t one of the surest bets in the league for 2013. 90 wins should be safe and 95-100 is a real possibility given the level of competition they face. They own baseball’s best rotation 1-5 and their only weaknesses are infield defense questions and bullpen uncertainty. And almost everyone has bullpen uncertainty so I can’t really hold that against them. Looking at the Tigers on paper, it’s hard to see how the defending AL champs won’t get a shot to play in October once more.
1. Washington Nationals
The Nationals earn this spot through logic similar to that which put the Tigers at number two. They added Denard Span, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Haren and lost only Edwin Jackson. With an unlimited Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper, there isn’t an argument to be made that the Nats got worse for 2013. Granted, any team can collapse and underperform, but there is no reason to think the Nationals are any more likely to do so than any other team on this list. If the Nationals stay as healthy as their competitors in 2013, they should once again be baseball’s best team.
Tell us what you thought of the 2013 Preseason Power Rankings series in the comments, on Twitter, on Facebook, or via the United States Postal Service. Check back tomorrow for STT’s projected standings.




