The Morning Edition (June 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Molina and Beltran homer to back Lynn against the Snakes
- Medlen shines as Burnett stumbles
- Arroyo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rox
- Kendrick hits a 3B and goes the distance to beat the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Mets in DC (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Sanchez in Detroit (7p Eastern)
- Skaggs and Wacha make prospect hounds drool in STL (8p Eastern)
- Peavy and Felix out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should the All-Star Game be?
Someone on Twitter asked Keith Law if Matt Carpenter should be an All-Star, which Law disagreed with because
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/341747971655872512
I’m curious what other people think, but I like when the All-Star game features a mix of star players and lesser known guys having good opening months. I understand his argument is that MLB wants to showcase the stars to expand the popularity of the sport, but I think national media events should be a time for the sport to turn its unsung players into stars. I don’t like when ESPN and Fox only talk about Jeter and Sabathia and Big Papi. National forums should be a chance to put guys like Matt Carpenter (2.5 WAR) and Josh Donaldson (2.6 WAR) on display. “Hey look, here are some guys you might not get a chance to see a lot who are playing great!” I like that aspect of it. The game will have Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, but I think it should also have the unknowns because it should be a game for die hard fans as well as casual fans who often use the word “boring” to describe baseball.
The Morning Edition (June 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jeremy Bonderman’s return doesn’t go well, gives up 7 ER in 4.2 to the Twins
- The Angels lose their 3rd straight to the Astros fall to 25-32
- Darvish narrowly outduels Santana, but has to sweat as his bullpen nearly costs them
- The Dbacks back Corbin’s 9th W
- Lee Ks 11 in 7.2 innings to beat the Crew
- Dusty waits to use his closer and it costs him a win against the Pirates
- The Fish hit Harvey and sweep the Mets
- The Rays rough up the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Masterson vs Pettitte in NY (7p Eastern)
- Burnett and Medlen face off in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Under the radar Cahill and Lynn draw each other at Busch (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Puig do in his MLB debut?
If you follow me on Twitter or were an early regular at New English D, you know I was very invested in Jeremy Bonderman’s comeback today. It didn’t go well. Because the Tigers were in Baltimore I had to have the Tigers on the radio, which gave me a chance to watch Bonderman on television. He had a fastball from 89-92 and a good slider at times, and he struck out the first batter he faced and delivered a 1-2-3 first inning. If you followed his career as a Tiger, you know the first inning gave him nightmares. But from there it unraveled as he allowed 3 runs in the 2nd and 2 runs in each of the 4th and 5th innings before being removed from the game. He struck out just one batter. He actually kept the ball down and had decent movement on his pitches, but without a good offspeed pitch, it’s hard to be successful as a starter if you don’t have a big fastball. It sounds like he’ll get another shot in five days, but if nothing else, he made it back to the big leagues. I’ll always be rooting for him even if he doesn’t have much left. He has something left.
The Morning Edition (June 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Ubaldo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rays
- The Twins walk off on the Mariners
- Miller throws 7 scoreless, Wainwright goes the distance and allows one run as the Cards sweep the Giants in a DH
- Oakland literally walks off against the Sox
- Rockies walk off on the Dodgers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Marlins, expect strikeouts (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee goes against the Crew (130p Eastern)
- Jeremy Bonderman is back on an MLB mound against the Twins (2p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Darvish toes the slab against the Royals (3p Eastern)
- Buchholz and Kuroda in NY (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Does playing a different position really affect you at the plate?
You may have heard recently that Mike Trout is crushing at the plate again after his early season slump because he’s back in CF while Bourjos is on the DL. I’ve got to say, this is silly. Very. I could buy the argument if he was struggling when playing a more difficult position. For example, if you move from 1B to 3B and struggle at the plate because you have to work on your defense, that could make sense. But Trout was moving to an easier spot, why would that affect him? It wouldn’t. He’s a world class 21 year old athlete coming off a crazy good season. It’s nonsense to think he was affected at the plate by a position change that put him in a spot that was too easy. Ken Rosenthal has led the way on this topic and points to this split:
Trout 2013 as LF:.247/.327/.412
Trout 2013 as CF: .324/.400/.632
But that’s normal variation. Rosenthal and others just saw it and went for it as something to write about to gin up controversy. Here’s how I know:
Trout 2012 as LF: .326/.395/.645
Trout 2012 as CF: .329/.404/.542
If Trout was affected psychologically by playing out of position, why didn’t affect him last season? This is random noise in his production over the course of the season that happened to correlate with a teammates injury. Want better evidence?
Trout 2013 in Odd Numbered Games: .401 OBP
Trout 2013 in Even Numbered Games: .339 OBP
Look, Mike Trout is better during odd numbered games. The Angels should sit him today. Give me a break.
The Morning Edition (June 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland and the Rangers pile on the Royals
- Strasburg leaves with an oblique injury, but the Nats manage to win 3-2
- Jacob Turner goes 7 strong to beat the Mets
- Another rough outing for Hamels as the Phils fall to the Crew
- Cueto throws 8 scoreless to beat the Bucs
- Sabathia gets 10 K to beat the Sox
- Another good start by Garza beats the Dbacks
- Bartolo Colon CGSO
- Rays and Indians start late in Cleveland
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Miller try again in St. Louis (1p Eastern)
- Greinke travels to Coors 4p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Wainwright in game two (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Chris Davis, are you buying or selling?
I’ve remained cautiously skeptical of the Davis breakout, as one should. Entering 2013, he was a career .258/.310/.466 hitter, which is perfectly league average 100 wRC+. Career 6.5 BB%, 31.0 K%. Barely above replacement level. This year, he’s .356/.442/.749, good for 209 wRC+. Everyone wants to believe, but I can’t. He’s never done anything like this and I just don’t think he’s changed his approach enough to sustain star level performance. The power is real, but I don’t buy the average and walk rate. I don’t usually like to be the negative guy, but here we are. Valverde nights will do that to you.
The Morning Edition (May 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey and Kuroda deliver a classic duel in NY
- Lee dominates the Red Sox, wins 3-1
- Rays walk off against the Marlins
- McCann homers in the 10th to lift the Braves over the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Orioles in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to stay hot against the Rangers (8p Eastern)
- Weaver returns to action against the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you like some of these home and home series in MLB?
Cliff Lee in 2013: 7.03 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9, 39.1 GB% 2.34 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 2.0 WAR
Rick Porcello in 2013: 7.06 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 55.7 GB%, 5.29 ERA, 3.93 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
Once their HR/FB rates normalize (5.5% to 19.4%), they’re basically the same pitcher with Porcello getting the ball on the ground more often. I’m not saying Porcello is going to be Cliff Lee, but so far, it’s not such a crazy thought. (Innings aside)
The Morning Edition (May 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mets rally late to back a strong outing by Niese against the Yanks
- Samardzija drops a CGSO against the cross town Sox
- Aaron Harang also provides a CGSO against San Diego
- Skaggs is sharp at the front of a doubleheader
- Wainwright goes 8 to beat Shields and the Royals 6-3
- Gomez homers twice, but the Crew lose to the Twins
- The Astros walk off in 12 versus the Rockies
- Votto’s 8th inning homer leads the Reds over the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gausman takes his second turn, gets the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Yankees for the first time (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee comes to Boston (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale tries to take one from the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is the new schedule dulling interleague play?
Danny Knobler at CBS wrote yesterday how little buzz there is for this week’s big interleague matchups and I’m in total agreement. Interleague play, which is the scorn of my father’s generation, used to feel special for me. It would be fun to spend a couple weeks watching players from the NL that I usually didn’t get to watch up close. Now, those teams are sprinkled into the normal schedule after nearly 20 years of being confined to a fortnight or so in June. The novelty has really lost its luster. It feels strange and awkward and forced. It’s either time to add two more teams and dump interleague play or get rid of the pretense all together and play all 29 clubs.
The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
The Morning Edition (May 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Pagan hits a walk off inside the park homerun against the Rockies
- Peavy goes the distance as the Sox walk off against Miami
- Gomez homers twice but it’s not enough to beat the Bucs
- Moore is strong against the Yanks but the bullpen blows it in extras
- The Red Sox offense picks up a mediocre Lester against the Tribe
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza against Cueto in Cincinnati (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Strasburg duel in DC (130p Eastern)
- CC and Cobb at the Trop (130p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Padres (4p Eastern)
- SHELBY MILLER VERSUS CLAYTON KERSHAW (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which game most intrigues you today?
The answer to that is obviously Cardinals and Dodgers as it includes two very good starters who are pitching well as of late. Kershaw is a well established Appointment Television starter and Shelby Miller, I can tell you on good authority, is just one good start away from making that list. Kershaw enters the game at 5-2 through 73.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and 2.0 WAR, not to mention a dazzling track record while his opponent, Miller, is 5-3 through 57 innings with a 1.74 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 1.6 WAR to go along with his prospect pedigree. One likely expects a great pitchers’ duel from this one, but as the author learned just last week in the Verlander-Darvish Fiasco of 2013, great pitching matchups sometimes disappoint the viewer who wishes to see nothing but amazing starting pitching. The game not only features two of the authors favorite pitchers to watch, but it takes place after the Tigers game and will be announced by the golden pipes of Vin Scully. Enjoy, world.
The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
The Morning Edition (May 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Angels get 4 HR off former teammate Santana to beat the Royals
- The Indians take out their Tigers frustration on the Red Sox, win 12-3
- Gausman doesn’t impress with results in his debut, falls to the Jays
- The Pirates get to Jackson, win 4-2
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Masterson looks to stay hot against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Danks makes his season debut against the Marlins (8p Eastern)
- Burnett heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to back up two good starts against the Friars (930p)
The Big Question:
- Who would you guess is the worst defensive team in the league?
I’d have said the Astros before I looked it up, but it’s the Angels. The Angels! They’re -37 DRS, -16.1 UZR, -10.3 UZR/150 which are all 30th best in the league. That seems really crazy to me given some of the great defenders they have, but with their overall struggles, some must be leaking into the defensive side. Let’s look. I set the minimum innings to 30 at a position and looked at the leaderboard. Here it is:
I know defensive numbers don’t stabilize this early, but that’s just not what you want to see for a team that should be pretty good on defense.
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