How Was The Game? (June 11, 2013)
A close one, but a good one.
Tigers 3, Royals 2
Looking to stop the Royals winning streak, the Tigers sent Max Scherzer (9-0, 93.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.0 WAR) to the mound looking to deliver another great performance and after struggling with command in the first inning, he turned in another fine outing by providing 7 innings of 3 hit, 2 run, 2 walk, and 6 strikeout baseball despite having issues deciding on an outfit:
The 8 and 9 hitters did most of the heavy lifting as Infante went 3-4 and Kelly and Garcia combined to go 3-4. The Tigers got out to an early lead, but wouldn’t score the winning run until the 8th inning on a Martinez sac fly. Valverde made it interesting, but escaped the 9th thanks in part to a generous call by the HP umpire that wasn’t good, but wasn’t as bad as Butler thought:
The win pushes the Tigers to 36-27 and they will go for the series victory behind Justin Verlander (8-4, 80 IP, 3.71 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.7 WAR) tomorrow in KC. In Verlander’s last start against the Royals this season, he went 7 innings and allowed 1 ER in an extra inning loss.
The Moment: Cabrera scores on a Martinez sac fly in the 8th.
Max Scherzer the Ace: The Key to His Transformation
I don’t need to tell you that Max Scherzer is an excellent MLB starting pitcher or that he’s having his best season to date. For one, I’ve already done so on a couple of occasions (Two Game Breakdowns: here and here). Also, you have eyes. You’ve watched him pitch and you’ve checked out his numbers.
But let me hit on some relevant points. Max Scherzer has the lowest walk rate of his career. He has the lowest homerun rate of his career. He has the lowest ERA, FIP, and xFIP of his career. He’s on pace for his highest WAR and might get there by August. He’s added a curveball and is using it along side his changeup to give hitters more frequent offspeed looks. He’s getting more groundballs than last year at the expense of line drives.
I’ve already laid out in the links above how well he’s avoiding the top of the strike zone. Heck, he’s throwing more strikes period. The worst things you can say about Scherzer this year is that his strikeout rate was about .25 K/9 higher last year and that his BABIP is a bit lower than we should probably expect it. That’s it. He’s due for a little regression to the mean, but almost all of his numbers look stable. This is the best we’ve seen from Scherzer. But you knew that.
You knew he’s 6th among pitchers in WAR, 4th in FIP, 5th in xFIP, and 3rd in K/9. You’ve seen it all. He’s finally putting it all together. That’s established.
So the next question is what’s different? Well I already mentioned the new pitch and the additional use of offspeed pitches. He’s throwing more strikes, but he’s not really inducing more swings and misses or more chases outside the zone. I’ve routinely talked about Scherzer’s need to rein in his wild delivery if he wanted to really have a great season. He’s doing that.
Let’s take a look at the pitches themselves. First we have single game averages from 2011:
Now here’s 2013:
The scales are essentially identical, and while the sample size is 1/3 the size in the lower chart, you can see how much more consistent the velocity and movement are on his pitches these days. To me, that’s because he’s repeating his delivery much more so than he used to. The stuff was always good, but now he’s getting more consistent results because his release point is more consistent. Here are 2011 and 2013:
So let’s consider the facts. Max Scherzer has always had great stuff and his inconsistency held him back. Over the last the last couple seasons, he’s worked on it and has found a way to repeat his delivery such that the results are lining up with the scouting report. He’s having his best season yet and it looks like he’s finally climbed his Everest and figured out his delivery.
As he looks to make start #13 tonight, one has to ask if Max Scherzer is now officially an ace. I consider the top 15 or so starters to be aces and Scherzer is certainly one of those this year by every available measure and was just on the edge of that last season. But Scherzer also has the requisite dominant stuff that aces need and is capable of twirling a lights-out-10+K performance on almost any occasion.
Scherzer is finally getting results in line with his skills and he’s done so by going to his offspeed stuff more often and doing whatever he needed to do to get his mechanics in order so that he could command his brilliant stuff well. Max Scherzer has spent the last three years in Justin Verlander’s shadow. At times in Anibal Sanchez’s and Doug Fister’s shadow. But Max Scherzer is no man’s understudy. Max Scherzer is an ace all on his own. He’s making a case to start the All-Star Game in July and is very much in the discussion for AL Cy Young.
If you liked this, check out New English D on Porcello’s Breakout Campaign, Anibal Sanchez’s Cy Young Leap, The Tigers Approach to Pitching, and Why They Have the Best Rotation Ever.
How Was The Game? (June 10, 2013)
A little unfair to Fister.
Royals 3, Tigers 2
In the interest of tidy box scores, both clubs limited their scoring to the 3rd inning today as Miguel Cabrera delivered a 2 run HR in the top of the inning and the Tigers defense helped the Royals respond with 3 in the bottom half. Doug Fister (5-4, 85 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.8 WAR) was characteristically fantastic and only allowed runs in one inning that featured 2 infield hits, a regular hit, and a triple that should have been kept to a single if not for a poor play by Garcia and Hunter. Fister would end the day with a CG, 3 run affair with 0 walks and 3 K in the losing effort that also pushed his GB rate to 57.5% which is second best among MLB starters.
After four straight wins, it’s hard to complain, but Doug Fister deserves better and I would like to request that the Tigers spread their poor offensive games around and don’t use them all up with Fister on the mound. Max Scherzer (8-0, 83.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 2.9 WAR) will take the hill tomorrow looking to even the series and improve his own All-Star and Cy Young profile.
The Moment: After a strike-em-out-throw-em-out to end the 4th inning, all 9 Tigers thought there were only two outs and didn’t leave the field.
Understanding the Tigers Bullpen
If you follow me on Twitter or have spent a lot of time on this site (here, also here) you know that I’m not a fan of how most managers use their bullpens. Primarily, I think “saves” are worthless and utilizing a one inning-saves only closer, even if that closer is excellent, is not the right way to use your bullpen.
This idea is simple and it’s explained in the links above, but I’ll summarize. You should use your best relievers when the game is most on the line. That does not always happen in the 9th inning. Your relief ace should pitch when he is needed, not when he can accumulate saves. The 9th inning is not “a different animal” that requires special skills. Many pitchers have moved into the 9th inning role without any problem and a high number of saves does not mean you have pitched well.
In general, I’m a fan of rethinking bullpen usage so that the best pitchers pitch in key situations. I’ve routinely mentioned that Jose Valverde is not a good MLB reliever anymore, but even if he was, the Tigers are using him incorrectly. Let’s explore.
Fangraphs furnishes a statistic that measure the average leverage index each pitcher enters the game during. Leverage index measures how much the game is “on the line” at every moment, so this captures exactly what we’re after. On average, how critical is the moment that Leyland brings in each reliever:
Obvious, some of these guys have fewer appearance than others, but you’ll note that Phil Coke, Jose Valverde, and Darin Downs have been called on during the most critical moments with Joaquin Benoit coming in 4th among pitchers who have a decent chunk of innings. What you should also notice is that Drew Smyly is effectively dead last because Reed and Porcello have hardly pitched at all.
Yet it’s Benoit and Smyly who are actually the team’s best relievers. If we look at Win Probability Added (WPA) which measures the the change in win expectancy from a pitcher’s entry into the game until their removal, Smyly and Benoit are the best the Tigers have:
And if you’d rather consider WPA in conjunction with LI:
What we see here is that Smyly and Benoit are the pitchers who are performing the best out of the Tigers bullpen but they aren’t getting place in the high leverage situations. Leyland is going to Coke, Valverde, and Downs more than Benoit and Smyly when the game is on the line even though those guys are worse.
We can look to other numbers like FIP and ERA, among Tigers relievers with more than 8 IP, Smyly and Benoit reign:
Put very clearly, Smyly (who is 8th in MLB in reliever WAR) and Benoit are the Tigers best two relievers by pretty much every objective measure, yet they are not getting the call when the games count most. Until yesterday (June 9th), Smyly had pitched to just 15 batters in the previous 2 weeks despite being the team’s best reliever. That just isn’t acceptable.
The way to fix this is simple. First, managers need to stop valuing “proven closers” and should not be afraid to go to closer by committee. Jose Valverde leads the Tigers in “Saves,” but by every other measure, he’s nowhere close to the team’s best pitcher. Second, managers need to accept that the most important time in the game is not always the 9th inning and should bring in their best reliever to face the other team’s best hitters or when the other team is threatening. If you go to your best guy with the bases empty against the 6-7-8 hitters, you’re wasting them.
The flaws were on display in Baltimore (5/31) when Jose Valverde came into the game in the 9th inning up by 2 against the Orioles’ best hitters and blew the game, but on the next day, Leyland went to Smyly for two innings up by 7 runs. The opposite should have happened. Valverde should not pitch when the game is on the line and Smyly shouldn’t pitch in garbage time. You need to align your best relievers with the most important moments in the game.
Now certainly you can’t see the future and I won’t begrudge someone for going to Smyly in a tight spot only to find the game gets tighter in a future inning. But when Leyland doesn’t use Smyly for days at a time and then gets him work during a blowout, it’s maddening.
People complain about the Tigers’ bullpen, but it’s actually 7th in MLB in WAR, 9th in FIP, and 4th in K/9. It’s not elite, but it’s reasonably good. The problem is not the individual pitchers but rather how they are used. If Leyland was willing to think differently and go to his best guys in the tightest spots, the Tigers wouldn’t have these late inning issues.
The Tigers have far and away the league’s best staff and one of the best couple of offenses. Their only weaknesses are defense and the bullpen, but the bullpen isn’t really a weakness, it’s an inefficiency. And it’s one that can be fixed.
How Was The Game? (June 9, 2013)
A nice, clean sweep.
Tigers 4, Indians 1
It’s rare that everything goes right during a baseball game, but that seemed to happen today. Jose Alvarez (1-0, 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 0.1 WAR) was stellar in his MLB debut, delivering 6 innings of 3 hit, 1 run, 1 walk, and 7 strikeout baseball in place of Anibal Sanchez and left the game with the score tied 1-1 thanks to an Avila sac fly and a Raburn homerun. In the bottom of the 6th inning, as Alvarez was basking in his debut, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder got themselves on base ahead of the imposing Don Kelly who turned on a pitch low and in and sent it into the seats to give the Tigers a 4-1 lead. And then something even more amazing happened. Jim Leyland actually called on his best relievers and brought Smyly into the game for 2 innings before turning it over to Benoit who added a scoreless 9th. The win completes the sweep and moves the Tigers 5.5 games ahead in the AL Central thanks to a 5-1 homestand. They’ll hop a plane to KC and will have Doug Fister (5-3, 77 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 2.4 WAR) on the mound for game one of the series on Monday.
The Moment: Don Kelly breaks the tie with a 3 run homer in the 6th.
How Was The Game? (June 8, 2013)
Another stellar day.
Tigers 6, Indians 4
The Tigers sent Rick Porcello (3-3, 63 IP, 4.86 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.0 WAR) to the hill in the middle game of the series with the Indians today and things went exactly according to plan. Porcello continued to impress after allowing hits to the first two batters of the game, he allowed just 3 more baserunners before he left the game after 6 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 BB, and 7 K. With another great start under his belt Porcello continues to compare himself nicely to the previous versions of himself and the rest of the league, as he now ranks 8th in xFIP with 2.97, which is better than any qualifying pitcher from 2012.
The offense also performed well, delivering 4 runs in the 2nd, mostly on a Prince Fielder double, and 2 in the 3rd, while keeping pressure on the Indians pitchers all game long. Ryan Raburn also had fun with the Tigers bullpen by hitting a 2 run HR to make it a 2 run game in the 7th. The win gives the Tigers the series, a 34-26 record, and a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central heading into Sunday’s finale looking to sweep behind Jose Alvarez (5-4, 74.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.50 FIP at AAA Toledo) who will make his MLB debut in place of Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 78 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.79 FIP, 3.4 WAR), who hopes to miss just one start with shoulder stiffness.
The Moment: Fielder clears the bases in the 2nd.
How Was The Game? (June 7, 2013)
Full of good signs.
Tigers 7, Indians 5
Up 2.5 in the Central and looking to burn the candle at both ends, the Tigers welcomed the Indians to Comerica Park hoping to pad their lead. They did so with a solid outing from Justin Verlander (8-4, 80 IP, 3.71 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.8 WAR) who went 7 innings, only allowing 3 runs that all came in the same inning that featured two infield hits and a botched flyball. The stat lines haven’t looked VERLANDERISH, but he does look to be past the three or four start run of iffy command and bad results. Both Hunter and Martinez both had 3 hit games and the only Tigers not to register a hit were Cabrera and Fielder. Martinez’s 3 hits featured one of each variety of which he is capable – a single, double, and homerun – indicating that his luck is starting to turn. Jose Valverde did his best to spoil it, but he was only able to turn a four run lead into a 2 run victory after two 9th inning homers and a single. The win moves the Tigers to 33-26 and gives them a shot to win the set with Cleveland tomorrow afternoon behind breakout pitcher Rick Porcello (2-3, 57 IP, 5.21 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 0.8 WAR). Of note, below is a list of pitchers with lower xFIPs than Porcello (min. 50 IP):
- Sanchez, 2.41
- Hernandez, 2.50
- Darvish, 2.54
- Wainwright, 2.54
- Scherzer, 2.80
- Cobb, 2.91
- Harvey, 2.92
- Porcello, 3.03
The Moment: Verlander attempts to avoid the Handshake of Doom by trying to enter the dugout via the auxiliary entrance.
More on VMart’s Bad Luck
Early this week, I wrote about Victor Martinez’s tough luck on hard hit balls this season and showed that his Hard Hit Average is all out of whack with his on field results. I’d like to offer a little more data to illustrate the point as Martinez made some post game comments today regarding the hard hit problem:
I took a look at Martinez’s wRC+ this season relative to league average, his 2011 season, and his career average entering the day and broke it down by groundballs, flyballs, and line drives. I think you’ll find it interesting.
Notice how Martinez is a little below where we would expect him to be historically on line drives, but not so far off that we would think anything more than some aging at work. But look at the other numbers. My goodness, look at them. On groundballs, he has a 1 wRC+ which is about 20% lower than we’d expect. On flyballs it’s even worse. He’s at -3 despite a general expectation he’d be north of 100. I’m not saying Martinez isn’t declining or having a down year, I’m providing evidence that he’s been unlucky. It might not be everything, but it’s something.
I showed you earlier this week that Martinez is hitting the ball hard, and now I’m showing you how exactly that bad luck is playing out in his results by batted ball type. The great thing here is that the odds are in his favor. There’s no way this keeps up, and it might already be turning around. Don’t look now, but the hits might just be starting to fall.
How Was The Game? (June 6, 2013)
A cleaner affair.
Tigers 5, Rays 2
After struggling on the last trip, the Tigers looked poised for a good homestand after a big win against the Rays on Tuesday, but yesterday’s loss dampened those hopes for some. Max Scherzer (8-0, 77 IP, 3.24 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 3.0 WAR) was undeterred, however, and mowed down the Rays hitters across 7 innings, allowing 4 hits and 1 run while getting 9 K and 2 BB to make the angles on these graphs even steeper:
But also of note is this graph, which shows that Max Scherzer did not miss the strikezone inside once during this start. Not once:
The bats stayed quiet early, but awoke in the later innings, scoring in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th innings led by big days from the 3-6 hitters, especially Victor Martinez, who drove in 3 runs on a single and a bomb. Benoit and Valverde meandered through the 8th and 9th innings, allowing a run, and gave the Tigers their first series victory since they beat the Twins on the last homestand. The Indians come to town for a weekend series and the Tigers will look to add some separation in the standings with Justin Verlander (7-4, 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.4 WAR) on the bump for game one.
The Moment: Don Kelly makes a diving catch in the 4th (see below)
How Was The Game? (June 5, 2013)
A gem, wasted.
Rays 3, Tigers 0
When Doug Fister (5-3, 77 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 2.5 WAR) takes the hill, you’re usually treated to a fast moving, efficient performance and today was an exceptional lesson in said qualities. Fister cruised through the first 7 innings in just 72 pitches causing the present author to remark:
and
Fister would finish the game with a marvelous 8.1 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 walks, and 4 strikeouts after surrendering all three runs on three hits, a sac fly, and a wild pitch in the 9th. That performance on most days will bring you an easy victory, but Mr. Fister had to sweat as his counterpart was also quite good. Cobb kept the Tigers at bay over 7.2 and got help from his bullpen to blank the Tigers. Fister succeeded with his usually excellent command and excellent separation among his four pitches, the latter is illustrated here:
With the loss, the Tigers fall to 31-26 and will try to take the series with the Rays tomorrow afternoon with Max Scherzer (7-0, 76.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.6 WAR) on the hill.
The Moment: Doug Fister doing anything.
New English D 