The Over/Under Guide to the 2013 Detroit Tigers
Many people like betting on sports and many people also like talking about sports as if they were betting on sports despite having no actual intention of doing so. This is a post for both types of people, but with more emphasis on the latter because some of these are quite specific and probably couldn’t get much action.
Below are my 2013 Detroit Tigers Over/Unders. Comment and share this post and let’s get a little contest going. I have set the numbers at where I think they are most likely to fall, meaning I believe it is equally likely that the outcome will be over and under and I am indifferent as to which to choose.
1. Team Wins (93.5)
2. Justin Verlander Strikeouts (249.5)
3. Austin Jackson Diving Catches (0.5)
4. Longest Winning Streak (7.5)
5. Longest Homerun Hit by a Tiger (448.5 ft)
6. Times FSD Shows Rod Allen Charging the Mound in Japan (1.5)
7. Times Mario and Rod Make Reference to Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez’s clubhouse value (140.5)
8. Cliches Doug Fister Uses in Postgame Interviews (724.5)
9. Miguel Cabrera Homeruns (36.5)
10. Times Alex Avila Gets Hit with a Foul Tip (∞)
11. Longest Rain Delay During a Non-Suspended Game (2:45.5 hours)
12. Comerica Park Sellouts (37.5)
13. Justin Verlander Near No-Hitters [defined as six or more no-hit innings] (1.5)
14. Games Played by Victor Martinez Not at DH (10.5)
15. Highest Batting Average for a Tiger Who Qualifies (.325)
16. Extra Inning Games (8.5)
17. Walk-Off Wins (4.5)
18. Max Scherzer’s K-Rate (10.5)
19. Lynn Henning Hate Tweets About Jhonny Peralta (85.5)
20. Date at Which Bandwagon Fans First Jump Ship (May 11)
21. Playoff Clinching Date (September 21)
22. Stolen Bases for Team Leader (19.5)
23. Number of Times Tom Brookens Pulls a Gene Lamont (2.5)
24. Tigers All-Stars (5.5)
25. Tigers Players with UZR’s > 4.0 (1.5)
26. Times Mario and Rod Discuss Non-Baseball Topics at Length (5.5)
27. Tigers Grand Slams (4.5)
28. Starts for Andy Dirks (120.5)
29. Number of Fans At Game 162 [Played in Miami] (9,850.5)
30. Games that Will Be Fun (160.5)
Post in the comments with you bets or on Facebook or Twitter. The winner will have next year’s contest named after them!
Tigers Release Brennan Boesch
Today, the Tigers parted ways with OF Brennan Boesch after three seasons. Boesch was released when it became clear that he would not have a place on the team and it was still early enough to save on his $2.3 million salary. The Tigers will now owe him less than $500,000 for 2013. (Boesch signed with the Yankees on 3/15)
There were trades suitors for Boesch this offseason, but none who were willing to offer what the Tigers were searching for, and Dave Dombrowski decided to give Boesch a shot to make someone else’s roster this Spring.
Boesch was many things, but he’ll always be a case study in fan misperception. Boesch has and always will be a flawed player. His approach at the plate is poor and his defense is bad. But man does he have power. And for periods of time, he flashed the ability to make good contact. But he was streaky and it never lasted.
He burst onto the scene with such fury in 2010 that fans thought that Boesch was the real Boesch. It wasn’t. Prior to 2010, he had never been the brilliant player he was during that half season run, and it showed in the second half. In 2011, he recovered some from the rough end to 2010, but missed the end of the season with a thumb injury.
In 2012, he was one of the worst big league regulars in the sport, posting a -1.3 WAR. He never walked, struck out too much, and couldn’t overcome those shortcomings because he didn’t hit for power and played ugly defense.
Boesch was never much of prospect and was generally on a fourth outfielder track prior to a great first half in 2010. So many saw that and only that. They saw him as something that he wasn’t, so he came crashing down. Which isn’t his fault. The expectations were too high after that three month run. He could never live up to them.
But Boesch had some glorious moments and big hits. He made diving catches in a clunky, ungraceful way that made you want to cheer and laugh at the same time. By all accounts, he’s a good dude too. He speaks Spanish with his teammates who struggle with English and gets along with his brothers in arms on the whole. He’s from Rod Allen’s hometown, so Rod Allen loves him a little extra.
The female Tigers fans also seemed to fancy Boesch for his boyish charm and blonde locks. All in all, there are worse things in the world than playing professional baseball in a city that loves you. Many, many worse things.
So I’m sorry to see Boesch go. I was never a believer in his talent, but I badly wanted him to prove me wrong. I’d eat all the crow in the world for another magical Brennan Boesch streak. I imagine someone will give Boesch a shot just for his power. The Yankees could probably benefit from taking a flyer. I hope he has a few more good weeks in him, even if he doesn’t have many great years.
Boesch was a frustrating player at times, but always seemed like someone worth cheering for. We at SABR Toothed Tigers wish him the best of luck and look forward to seeing him again.
On a final note, because this won’t ever be relavent again. Brennan Boesch and Andy Dwyer (from NBC’s Parks and Rec) might be the same person. Think about it.
Five Things to Worry About
Many people have worried a lot this winter about Bruce Rondon as the closer, but they shouldn’t. They’ve worriedly about Porcello and Smyly over stuffing the rotation, but they shouldn’t.
Perhaps people just like to worry? In that case, here are five better things to worry about this Spring Training.
5. Jim Leyland not getting his nicotine fix in light of new anti-smoking laws.
4. Doug Fister bumping his head on the dugout ceiling.
3. Alex Avila standing near flammable substances, because one time, sparks literally came off his mask.
2. Andy Dirks needing a new dress shirt, because is neck is way out of proportion to his body.
1. Rod Allen developing a Justin Verlander meets Miguel Cabrera level man crush on Torii Hunter.
Needless to say, I think people worry too much. But if you insist on worrying, let’s worry about important things.
Help Me Make a Serious Decision
So I need some help. Perhaps this isn’t the right place to go looking for it because this is usually a place where I, the writer, provides a service to you, the reader. But I have nowhere else to turn at this moment, so I’m hoping you’re okay with the reverse arrangement for this one particular post.
My problem is this. I don’t know which Tigers player shirt to buy this year.
Every year for the last probably seven or eight years, I’ve added one player to my repertoire and I’m just not sure which way to go. So I need some advice.
First, let me tell you which players I have. So we can obviously leave them out.
1) Brandon Inge
2) Curtis Granderson
3) Justin Verlander
4) Rick Porcello
5) Alex Avila
6) Doug Fister
7) Ryan Raburn
8) Don Kelly
My basic criteria are these. When I buy the shirt, I want some sense of security that the player will be around for at least another season, so I usually shy away from players in contract years or on the trading block. I want the player to have earned my love and affection. Which means I don’t buy a player’s shirt until they’ve contributed in some way, meaning that I can’t buy Torii Hunter just yet. I also place more weight on players who are less popular, because I like to support players who have fewer fans.
As many of you know, I’m something of a die-hard fan who loves even the worst players on the team. Miguel Cabrera is an amazing hitter, but I have a lot more fun cheering for Don Kelly. Put simply, I’m attracted to players who are blessed with heart and hustle over hits and homeruns, but that is not an exclusive relationship. I’m not against buying the best players, I would just rather pick a more obscure player all else being equal.
So without further ado, here are the choices I’m considering this year in the rough order I’m thinking.
1) Andy Dirks
2) Max Scherzer
3) Victor Martinez
4)Austin Jackson
5) Prince Fielder
6) Drew Smyly
7) Anibal Sanchez
Help me out by making a case for a player on this list, or for any other player in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter (@NeilWeinberg44). Or you could help me out by buying me all seven.
I need to order a new player shirt soon and I just have no idea which player to choose.
#GetJimLeylandOnTwitter
Word has it that over the last year or so, Tigers manager Jim Leyland has become a bit more tech savvy that he used to be. Leyland famously didn’t know how to turn on his computer when he arrived in Detroit, but last year he sent “text messages” and this spring he has used Skype to speak with his wife. (“She looked good!”)
Which got me thinking, if Leyland progresses at this rate, it is possible that he could join Twitter one day.
Last year, at one point during a fan mutiny, Leyland wanted fans to e-mail their lineup choices to members of the media to show him so that he could get their input, if they were so smart. But what if we could tweet with Jim?
His son and Tigers minor leaguer Patrick is on Twitter, so presumably someone could help him out at home. And several Tigers players are “Tweeps,” including Paws, the Tigers’ mascot. Could we soon be living in a world in which Jim Leyland tweets?
One can only hope.
His mixture of sage wisdom and nonsensical clichés are exactly what you need to be successful on Twitter, or really the internet in general.
Consider: “Man, that trip to the dry cleaner was just what the doctor ordered. #tonic”
Additionally, I would be very interested to see how mumbling sounds in 140 characters and if he would tweet about things that make him emotional.
“Just got off at Exit 32. That just makes me think of Donnie Kelly. I love that man more than my wife and son put together. #goldenboy”
But most importantly, he could tweet out his lineups ahead of time so that fans could critique his managing in an interactive way.
His Twitter profile would say, “Tigers Skipper, 3 Pennants and a World Series. Will block lineup suggestions.”
In fact, can you think of any person currently without a Twitter page that would be more entertaining to follow than Jim Leyland? I sure can’t.
Just imagine the kinds of things Rod could tweet at him. “Hey Skip!!! You got those boys workin today! #keepinitreal”
This needs to happen. Jim Leyland belongs on Twitter. Don’t you agree?
#LeylandonTwitter2013
Little Uncertainty About the Tigers Opening Day Roster, Two Spots Open
Jim Leyland said this week that 11 of the 13 spots on his roster for position players are all but locked up. Which, in turn, means that there are only two spots left for a number of candidates.
If we assume that the 11 spots belong to Avila, Pena, Martinez, Fielder, Infante, Peralta, Cabrera, Jackson, Hunter, Dirks, and Santiago then the remaining two spots will go to Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avi Garcia, Danny Worth, Don Kelly, or Jeff Kobernus. Of course someone else could have an insane spring and get into the conversation, but these six are the likely contenders.
So how should the Tigers allocate their remaining roster space?
I think it’s unlikely that Garcia makes the Opening Day roster as a reserve outfielder because the Tiger are committed to developing him and he’ll gain more from 600 minor league at bats than 250 big league ones.
From there, we should probably look to positional considerations. Worth and Kobernus can both play infield, but Worth is a better glove and based on his minor league numbers I don’t see Kobernus as offering anything extra at the plate. An important consideration, however, is that Kobernus can also play the outfield and was a rule five pick, which could push him into a Don Kelly 25th man type role from the right side of the plate. If the Tigers were going to do that, they might as well go with Kelly who is even more versatile.
The Boesch versus Berry decision depends on a number of factors. First, who is playing better? Both players have shown flashes of a skill set that can help in the majors and they both hit left handed, so whoever is swinging a hot bat will have a leg up. Boesch provides an element of power and Berry brings speed to the table but neither get on a base at a high rate and both are defensive liabilities.
If the Tigers are committed to keeping Garcia in the minors, then Boesch is the only one on this list who can bring any sort of power off the bench, but he’s also the least flexible player. He can only play corner outfield and doesn’t do it well. Berry can play center and Kobernus, Kelly, and Worth can all play three or more spots.
Given the strength of the Tigers starting group and relatively weak infield defense, I would argue on behalf of Danny Worth for spot number 12 on the roster. He plays good defense and runs well enough to pinch run late in games for Peralta, Avila, or Fielder if the time is right. He doesn’t have Berry’s game changing speed, but he runs the bases well and catches the baseball.
For spot 13, I would go with Boesch. His skill set is limited, but the Tigers won’t ask him to do more than start once a week or so. If he gets rolling, his offensive ceiling is the highest and he could provide some solid value. If he doesn’t do anything, then at least they tried and they can shift to Berry or Kelly or Kobernus who will give a move certain performance, but likely with a lower potential breakout.
I’m a big Kelly supporter because I like all of the things he can do and he’s one of the nicest people on Earth, but the Tigers need to see if they can get anything else out of Brennan Boesch before they decide to call it quits. If the Boesch experiment fails, Kelly can jump right in and play the role he’s had for the last couple seasons.
What we have to remember here is that neither of these last two players is going to see a lot of the field, so the impact of each choice is very small. Worth seems like a smart call for me because of his defensive skill and I’d go with Boesch because you might get a few weeks of greatness.
There is still plenty of camp left for this to sort itself out, but for now, I’d tell Jim Leyland to put Worth and Boesch on his list to head north and see how it goes.
Porcello, Smyly, and Never Having Too Much of a Good Thing
An issue of some contention this offseason has been what to do about the Tigers surplus of starting pitchers. You see, the Tigers have six of them and only five slots in the rotation. Many fans and commentators have characterized this as a problem, but it really shouldn’t be thought of in this way. Seriously, when is having too many good players a problem?
Following said belief about having too many starters, these same people have often advocated for trading Rick Porcello. The reasons for dealing Porcello are straightforward. First, his contract is heavier than Drew Smyly’s, so the team could reallocate more cash if they deal Porcello instead of Smyly. Second, fans perceive Porcello as an inferior pitcher to Smyly or at least less valuable because he doesn’t throw with his left hand.
I, however, am here to discuss this situation in a different way. The Tigers should keep both Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly.
Let’s first lay out the possible options:
A) Keep both
1) Porcello starts, Smyly relieves
2) Smyly starts, Porcello relieves
3) Porcello starts, Smyly starts in AAA
B) Trade one
4) Trade Porcello
5) Trade Smyly
When we look at it with all of the options in front of us, it’s much easier to see which make the most sense. I would argue that Option 3 is the ideal one for three primary reasons.
Reason 1: The Tigers gain little by trading either player. There is no one on the trading block right now who they could get for either pitcher that would improve the 2013 club. The Tigers could add a prospect or add depth at another position, but they can’t get better in the short run given the options. The team wants to win now. Why should they trade their pitching depth, which is lacking after Smyly and Porcello, when they will likely need it at some point in 2013?
Reason 2: Smyly should start so that he can continue to develop. If the team moves him to the pen, they are likely stunting his growth for the long term.
Reason 3: I think Porcello is better than Smyly for 2013. Porcello has four 2-3 WAR seasons already and has never missed a start due to injury. His strikeout numbers have trended up each season with his walk numbers coming down. His FIP has dropped every season of his career. He’s also still just 24 years old – at least 2-3 years before the average pitcher peaks. Porcello could easily be a 3+WAR pitcher in 2013 and has shown no reason to think he will break down and every reason to think 2013 will be his best season so far.
Smyly, on the other hand, is not nearly so well defined. He’s only a year younger and has less than twenty major league starts and less than fifty professional starts. His rate stats are quite good and he easily looks to be a promising young player, but he hasn’t pitched enough to know these things. Smyly has an injury history and less experience. I’m not sure which pitcher will be better in for their career, but Porcello has a big head start and is a much more certain quantity. There are always things that you don’t see coming, but I’d rather be predicting off four years of data than less than one.
If we merge those reasons together, we’re left with Option 3. This gives the Tigers depth should one of their pitchers get injured and it allows Smyly to develop for the day that he is called upon to be full time starter. The Tigers lose nothing in keeping both pitchers for the start of the 2013 season except the opportunity cost of the trade they could make right now – but none of those trades look that great.
The Tigers should keep Porcello and Smyly for 2013 and start with Porcello in the rotation and Smyly leading the Mud Hens staff. They can always adjust from their throughout the season, but you can’t untrade Rick Porcello if Max Scherzer blows out his elbow in May.
Does Andy Dirks Need a Platoon Partner?
What often happens when a team has relatively few holes to address during an offseason is a lot of attention gets placed on minor needs. One of these needs in Detroit, has been a right handed hitting outfielder to match with Andy Dirks in a platoon situation.
The feeling among many is that this is one way the Tigers could improve their club heading into 2013, and it is also a way to improve the club that most perceive as possible. Finding a right handed hitter to man the weak side of a platoon is easier, for example, than finding a shortstop that is both available and an upgrade over Peralta.
So we’ve spent a good bit of the winter wondering who the Tigers could target to compliment Dirks. Scott Hairston was a logical fit, but he ended up signing with the Cubs for two years because they could offer him more in terms of playing time than the Tigers could.
But I think we’ve gotten a little too caught up in finding a dance partner for Dirks that we’ve overlooked the fact that he probably doesn’t need one. We’ve been looking for a match for him because there’s nothing else we even remotely need on offense, but we actually probably don’t need this either. The only place the Tigers really have room to upgrade is the bullpen and that only relates to Dirks in that he will be standing in front of it when he man’s left field.
Why is it that I say we don’t need a platoon partner for Dirks? Well, it’s because he can hit lefties just fine. Let’s explore the numbers.
Dirks has played 166 games in his career spawning 579 plate appearances. We’re working with about a full season of information that has covered parts of three seasons. Unfortunately, I can’t get splits data from his minor league career, just total numbers, so that can’t be included right now.
But let’s look at his big league breakdown:
So if we look at that, Dirks is pretty much just as good against righties and lefties. He gets on base a little more versus lefties and hits with a little more extra base power against righties. But he hits more homeruns on average against lefties, walks more against lefties, and strikes out less against lefties.
According to Baseball-Reference’s tOPS which weighs each side, he scores 100 against righties and 99 against lefties, meaning that he is a one percent better hitter against righties. That doesn’t sound like a big platoon split to me. In fact, one would hardly consider that a platoon split at all. What are the odds both sides are perfectly identical.
From both sides, Dirks appears to be a capable major leaguer. But even if you don’t buy into Dirks yet and worry about the sample size, that should affect your opinion of him against all pitchers, not just one side of them. Dirks shows no discernible platoon split during his big league career.
So while we’re dying to find Dirks a buddy to play with out in left field, he doesn’t need one. Dirks can handle that position all on his own.
I generally think we overvalue platoon advantages. Don’t get me wrong, a lot of hitters weight to one side or the other, but I don’t think we should accept it as a given that hitters hit worse against their same side pitcher. I think that hitters who aren’t top flight prospects are often pigeonholed into a role that assumes they can’t hit one side before they actually display evidence of this shortcoming, and that pigeonholing puts them in a position in which they get fewer at bats against their “weaker” side, which means they actually develop a weakness because of a belief that may have not been true.
I’m not sure how to demonstrate evidence of this, but I think it’s happening. At any rate, I can and did show evidence that Dirks does not appear to be weaker against lefties. So in this case, at least, Dirks doesn’t need a dance partner and the Tigers can stop looking.
2012 Season in Review: Detroit Tigers
88-74, 1st in the AL Central
Lost in the World Series to the Giants
It was a banner year for the Tigers, the hometown team of this website. There was a great deal of fan angst about the club’s performance for much of the summer which fans felt was lackluster (the performance, not the summer). However, the team won the division and the AL pennant and produced the AL MVP and Cy Young runner up. Could the team have played better? Sure, every team could. But the Tigers had a great season on the backs of great performances.
Miguel Cabrera won the MVP and Triple Crown in 2012 and posted an excellent (7.1) WAR. Despite the media narrative, he didn’t carry the team on his own. Austin Jackson, who missed time with an injury, tallied 5.5 WAR as well. Prince Fielder (4.9), Jhonny Peralta (2.6), Alex Avila (2.6 in 116 games), and Andy Dirks (1.6 in 88 games) all did their part too. The Tigers were among the best offenses in baseball by any measure even with two of baseball’s worst regulars, Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch getting lots of at bats.
If the offense was good, the pitching was awesome. Led as always by all-universe ace Justin Verlander (6.8), the Tigers staff dominated. Max Scherzer (4.6) broke out and Doug Fister (3.6 in 26 starts) followed up his ridiculous final two months of 2011. Rick Porcello (2.9), despite fan opinion, was among the game’s best backend starters. Drew Smyly (1.7 in 18 starts) was also very good as a rookie fifth starter when he was healthy. For the last two months of the season, Anibal Sanchez (1.4 in 12 starts) wore the Old English D as well and contributed greatly.
The bullpen was volatile. Dotel did his job most nights and Villarreal and Benoit went through very hot and very cold streaks. Valverde had a typical high save, low value season. It wasn’t a lockdown pen, but it was certainly good enough.
The Tigers shot out of the gate in early April before stumbling heavily in May. By the All-Star break they were back near the front of the division, but couldn’t quite take control. It looked like the White Sox were going to hold them off until a late September surge pushed them over the edge. A five game series win against the A’s in the ALDS preceded a quick four game sweep of the Yankees in the ALCS. The World Series didn’t go well, but the Tigers outlasted 28 other teams in 2012.
Some big names had big years while some supporting players had down years off their 2011 highs. In general, the Tigers underperformed their regular season expectations as a whole, but they stood atop the AL when it was over.
The cavalry is coming in 2013, too. A full season of Anibal Sanchez will improve the club and subbing in Torii Hunter for Brennan Boesch is certainly a few win swing as well. Victor Martinez should be back at full strength to replace the Delmon Young shaped whole in the Tigers batting order. Infante spend a full year at second in lieu of a mix and match. It’s also not unreasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back from Avila and Peralta, probably not to their 2011 highs, but somewhere about 2013.
Put that all together, and the Tigers could easily be 10-15 wins better. That would be a huge improvement and certain return to the postseason. But that of course, assumes no one will get hurt and no one will regress from 2012. It’s certainly reasonable to assume a 5-7 win bump for the team in 2013.
So after two straight postseason berths and an AL pennant, the Tigers will enter 2013 with a chance to win the big prize.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
Don Kelly and Athletes You Can Feel Good About
Don Kelly is coming back!
That was my reaction to the news today that the Tigers had signed Kelly to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training and a shot to make the club as the 25th man once again.
Let’s be clear upfront, I love Don Kelly. He became my favorite Tiger once the Tigers released Inge last year and I’m very excited about the prospect of him returning to the club. I’m not overly optimistic that it will happen, but I’m happy that he’ll get a shot at it.
You see, Don Kelly is everything that is great about baseball. That may seem odd to you considering that Kelly is a bench player and certainly won’t ever be anything more than that.
But what matters here is how much Kelly loves playing baseball and what a nice guy he is. I would never advocate for Kelly to start in centerfield and hit third for my team, but that’s okay, because only one guy can play centerfield and only one guy can hit third. You need 25 guys on a team, and Kelly fills a very valuable role. He plays every position, has a disciplined approach at the plate, and can get the occasional extra base hit.
He runs pretty well and can fill in as the emergency everything. I’ve personally seen him pitch and catch live and he’s the only active player to have played all nine positions in the majors. He’s played 8 of 9 for the Tigers plus a few games at short for the Pirates.
I love versatility. My favorite players are utility players. Maybe that makes me unusual, but I don’t particularly care. Don Kelly can play anywhere. He rides the bench with great enjoyment and is revered by everyone who knows him as, like, the nicest dude on the planet.
When he got sent down last year, the reporters were tearing up. He told them it wasn’t a funeral, and it wasn’t. He had a game winning sac fly in the ALDS and got to be the hero.
He’s the most polite athlete I’ve ever seen and his love for the game and his teammates is obvious. I love Don Kelly and I’m glad he’s getting another shot.
I’m fully aware that a list of the best 25 players in the Tigers organization probably doesn’t include Kelly, but he’s my favorite one to cheer for. The best 24 and Kelly might win one fewer game than the best 25, and I’m okay with that because sports are better when you can put your faith in someone who won’t let you down.
With all the cheating and lying and general unsavoriness going on with Bonds, Clemens, baseball writers, and Lance Armstrong, I’m more excited than ever to support players who are a little less talented if it means they are a lot better people. Don Kelly is one of those guys.
Don Kelly is easy to root for, so I’m hoping I get more chances to do so.
New English D 