The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
- Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
- Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
- Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)
I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).
- 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
- 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
- March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP
That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.
So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.
The Morning Edition (April 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Josh Hamilton goes 0-4 with 2K as his Angels fall to the Rangers in his return to Arlignton
- Gordon and Hosmer lead the way as the Royals pummel the Phillies 13-4
- Zito outduels Westbrook in a 1-0 win over the Cards
- The Reds throw down the gauntlet in the NL with a 15-0 thumping of the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller makes his second big league start as his Cards take on the Giants (4p Eastern)
- Julio Tehran tries to build on his hot spring against the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Trevor Bauer makes his Tribe debut against Rays youngster Alex Cobb (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw goes for an encore in LA against AJ Burnett and the Bucs (9p Eastern)
The Big Question
- How long can Chris Davis keep this up?
In 18 PA this season Davis has 4 HR and a .600/.611/1.600 line. Obviously, that pace is a bit unsustainable, but at some point it just becomes ridiculous even in the short run. He’ll get to face Vance Worley tomorrow, against whom he has not recorded a hit in three trips to the plate. Davis, as it appears, will win the New English D “Race to 1.0 WAR” very shortly. He has 0.9 as of this writing. Today, MLB on Fox begins their final season in which they will terrorize our Saturdays by blacking games out. Starting in 2014, MLB.TV won’t go dark on Saturday afternoons. Luckily, the Tigers play the Yankees, so Fox will let me watch. Additionally of note, New English D will publish our usually Saturday edition of The Nine later today with a focus, likely, on ballpark food.
For your reading pleasure, below is a strike zone plot of Prince Fielder’s at bat against Boone Logan from Friday. Observe the location of the pitch that Fielder hit into the seats. A pitcher should reasonably be able to assume that if he misses the strike zone by that much that he should be safe from such outcomes.
So Shawn Kelley tried this when he faced Fielder in the 7th. I would not recommend this.
The Morning Edition (April 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bryce Harper backed a great performance from Stephen Strasburg with 2 HR
- Clayton Kershaw twirled a CGSO and homered
- Justin Upton homered in his Braves debut
- The Brewers and Angels both won in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price begins his Cy Young defense against the O’s in Tampa (3p Eastern)
- The new look Blue Jays begin their season behind R.A. Dickey (7p Eastern)
- Darvish looks to help the Rangers against the undefeated Astros (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What will Hyun-Jin Ryu’s debut look like in LA? (10p Eastern)
It was an exciting Opening Day and today’s abbreviated schedule looks to pact a slightly less forceful punch despite some exciting talent toeing the rubber. I’ll have my eye on the Blue Jays, especially to see if they can get off on the right foot. Check back each and every morning for musings from around the league. As the season gets a little further along, this will become a place for more analysis and debate.
The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013
As we do every week here at STT, we present lists of things ordered by the nines and on this Saturday, it’s a list of The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013.
On this list, you’ll find a couple of center fielders have gone missing as they no longer play the position. If you’re looking for Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, for example, try the left field list. Beyond that, I found this list to be a bit convoluted and had a difficult time doing the rankings. A lot of players are left off who could easily be in the 7-9 range and lots of players who are on the list could easily end up somewhere else on the board.
Apologies to: Justin Ruggiano, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury.
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
Jones hits for power and average and has decent speed, but his plate discipline is suspect. He’s also less than stellar on defense according to the metrics, but coaches seem to like him as they gave him a gold glove last year over the great Mike Trout. He’s a good player, but he’s not a complete player.
8. John Jay (Cardinals)
You could probably attack this choice more any other because Jay doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t have one eye popping skill. But Jay hits for average, runs the bases pretty well, and plays solid defense. It’s more of gut feeling here than anything, but I like Jay to break out this year. Entering his prime years on a great team, I’m buying.
7. B.J. Upton (Braves)
Upton will play between his brother and Jason Heyward on a good all-around team. He’s a solid defender who hits for power and runs well to mix with a good approach at the plate. He has a swing and miss problem and a lowish batting average, but he’s a good bet for 3 to 5 WAR.
6. Peter Bourjos (Angels)
The speedy, defensive star put up a 4.5 WAR season when he got a full season as a starter in 2011 and has two 2+WAR season in a backup role in 2010 and 2012. He doesn’t light up a lot of the traditional stats, but he plays amazing defense and runs as well as anyone. He’s worth the price of admission on defense alone and could easily be a top five centerfielder if he has a moderately good offensive year.
5. Denard Span (Nationals)
Span is a great defender who doesn’t strikeout much and gets on base better than average for a centerfielder and runs well. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be great at the top of the Nationals lineup and between Werth and Harper. With his concussion history hopefully behind him, he should be in for a big year.
4. Michael Bourn (Indians)
Bourn may be aging, but he’s coming off four very good seasons and is a top tier defensive player. He’s a top flight runner and gets on base well. Four years from now, the Indians might not want to pay him $12 million a season, but for 2013, he’s still one of the very best centerfielders money can buy.
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
Kemp’s 2011 season was one for the ages and his 2012 started off on the same pace but was cut down by injuries. That’s the only reason Kemp isn’t #1 on this list. I’m just not sure he’ll play a full season. His defense could use some work, but on offense, a healthy Kemp is as good as they come. If he was coming off a less serious set of injuries I would be more likely to brush them off, but I’m doubtful Kemp can play 150 games for a team with big expectations in 2013.
2. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
McCutchen is one of baseball’s best players. He mixes speed, power, and plate discipline and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012. He has four very good seasons under his belt and is only held back by averageish defense. There is some debate about his skills in center, but all in all there isn’t much bad to say about the Pirates’ star.
1. Austin Jackson (Tigers)
Now before I’m accused of bias in favor of my favorite team, go back and look at Jackson’s 2012 season. He was better than Bourn in every major category excepts steals and defense, but he also missed 25 games with an injury. He cut down on his strikeouts, walked more, and hit for more power. He’s a great defender and is a year younger than McCutchen. Despite missing time with an injury that has completely healed, Jackson was third in centerfield WAR among players who still play the position and less than 2 WAR behind McCutchen. I’m buying another step forward for Jackson in 2013 toward something like a 6-6.5 WAR player and modest regression by McCutchen. This isn’t to say Cutch is in decline, but rather that 2012 was simply his career year. It will be hard to reproduce that peak, so Jackson might catch him in 2013. This might be a bit bold, but I’ll stick to it. Jackson is my pick for the best centerfielder in baseball for 2013.
Sound off in the comments and online about the merits of this list. Should you want your money back because it was terrible, try to remember this site is free, unlike ESPN Insider, which charges you to read mostly terrible commentary.
2013 Season Preview: National League West
If we knew nothing else than who won the World Series every year, the National League West would look as if it was doing pretty well for itself as it is home to two of the last three world champions. Both of those teams are the San Francisco Giants, however, so it’s probably better for everyone if we had a little more information.
The division features those defending champion Giants and baseball’s newest quarter billion dollar payroll, the Dodgers. Both clubs have their sights set on a playoff run and they will have company.
The Diamondbacks made a lot of roster juggling, win now type deals this year and the Padres had a good run to end 2012. Only the Rockies can be said to have no realistic playoff hopes for 2013.
The division features big ballparks and could be a growing challenge to baseball’s previously elite divisions in the years to come. For now, it remains a bit off the pace in my book. Here’s how SABR Toothed Tigers sizes up the NL West for 2013.
[Division Rank. Team (Predicted 2013 Record, Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Colorado Rockies (63-99, 28)
The Rockies had a bad season in 2012 and didn’t do a whole lot to make their team better for 2013. The offense, with a healthy Tulowitzki, is formidable enough to contend, but they cannot do it alone. The starting rotation and bullpen, even with generous adjustments for the tough home ballpark, are abysmal. The Rockies have a number of guys I would feel comfortable placing at the back end of my rotation, but none who belong at the front. If the Rockies won more than 75 games in 2013, I would be absolutely shocked. As you can see by my preseason ranking, I think the Rockies will be among the worst five teams in baseball this year.
4. San Diego Padres (78-84, 22)
The Padres played much better in the second of half of 2012 and actually looked like a team that could contend in 2013 with a few upgrades. Unfortunately, they didn’t make any big upgrades. They took some chances on previously injured starters who could certainly provide good value, but no one who will be a bona fide difference maker. With some good fortune, the Padres should spend a few months kicking dirt around the second wild card, but the talent just isn’t there without a couple more acquisitions.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80, 15)
The Diamondbacks have a talented roster, but also made some strange moves this offseason. They traded Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Trevor Bauer for a return of Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Heath Bell, and Randall Delgado. There are a few more pieces as well, but these are the ones who look to make an impact this year. They signed Cody Ross and Eric Chavez and have good pitching depth coming from the system to go along with centerfielder in waiting Adam Eaton. On the whole, this is a talented club, but they seemed to get the worse end of every move they made. That doesn’t mean they’ll have a bad season, but it does make you wonder how well the team is run. I wouldn’t be surprised by a playoff push from the Dbacks, but it will require another big year from Aaron Hill and Paul Golschmidt in addition to solid seasons from a lot of lesser pieces. The key will be how well a deep but inexperienced pitching staff can navigate through a full season. This is a good team, but not a great team and their record will reflect that.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74, 11)
I’ve written on several occasions that I don’t think the Dodgers have successfully spent their way into a playoff berth, but rather have merely allowed themselves to get into the discussion. Their top two starters, Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, are phenomenal, but the rotation is uncertain after that despite a number of options. Carl Crawford claims he’ll be ready by Opening Day, but I’m doubtful we’ll ever see him regain his Tampa Bay form. Matt Kemp is coming off an injury plagued season and Andre Either’s and Adrian Gonzalez’s best days are behind them as far as I’m concerned. This isn’t a bad team, but this is not the best team $250 million can buy. The Dodgers should be in the playoff chase right down to the wire, but they’re not going to make into October.
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71, 7)
The Giants have earned this spot in part due to history and in part due to reason. As far as history is concerned, they’ve won two World Series in three years and are due some deference for that. Rationally though, they won the division last year and return the same team minus a half season of Melky Cabrera and plus full ones from Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro. The Dodgers may be better than last year, but they also had an unusually lucky first two months last year, so that might balance out. It’s also hard to imagine Tim Lincecum doing any worse than he did in 2012 and could reasonably do much, much better. The Giants aren’t the most talented team in baseball for 2013, but they have shown the ability to exceed our expectations of them. This is a team that plays good defense and pitches well, but they are also a better offensive club than they were in 2010 when they played “torture baseball.” Buster Posey will lead the way, but he won’t be on his own. The Giants aren’t my pick for the World Series, but they are my pick to represent the NL West in the postseason.
Awards and Miscellaneous Predictions:
NL West Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL West MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Hanley Ramirez
Division Storyline That Will Surprise Us: The Dodgers will be desperate for pitching by June.
Boldest of the Bold: Carl Crawford will be a platoon player by August.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11
Yesterday I gave you the bottom third of my 2013 Preseason Rankings and today I present you with the middle third. Remember, this is how I view the quality of each team for 2013 and not how many wins I believe each team will accumulated. For example, I have the #21 Pirates winning more games than the team ahead of them because I expect them to have an easier time in their own division and think they’ll benefit from more good fortune as well.
20. Boston Red Sox
It’s been a rough 18 months for the Red Sox, but they enter 2013 without the weight of big contracts or expectations. They shed payroll thanks to the big spending Dodgers and made smaller commitments to free agents this offseason like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, David Ross, Johnny Gomes, and Ryan Dempster. The Sox have a pitching staff that should bounce back to some degree in 2013 and adding Joel Hanrahan should thicken up the back end of the pen. I think the Sox will be respectable this season, but I couldn’t make a case for them in the top half of the teams in the league and felt more comfortable calling them the 20th best team for 2013.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a pretty good offensive team led by Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, but their pitching is somewhat suspect. Without any serious moves to improve their rotation or bullpen, I couldn’t do much to move them up this list. Expect the Crew to hit well, but I can’t see them preventing enough runs to make a postseason run.
18. New York Mets
I think the Mets are one elite outfielder and one pretty good outfielder away from being a legitimate playoff contender. They have a franchise player in David Wright and some nice supporting pieces on offense, but that usually won’t be enough to knock on the door of 90 wins. I’m a huge fan of the Mets rotation, even without Dickey in 2013 and think the bullpen should be better than it was a season ago. I don’t think this is the year for the Mets, but I also think they are a lot better than people think.
17. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a great 2012 season, but that greatness came on the backs of a lot of good fortune. I find it hard to believe they’ll be as lucky in extra inning and one run games again in 2013 and they also didn’t make any upgrades to the roster. A full season of Manny Machado will help and Dylan Bundy may get a chance to make an impact, but I’m expecting a low to mid 80s win total rather than a mid 90s one.
16. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are just a really average team. They have some frontline arms, but not much depth in the rotation or the pen for my taste. A lot of their bats have breakout potential, but they’re also very inconsistent. We saw last season, with much of the same roster, that a team like this can have a few good months, but they almost never hold up over a full season. This is an 80-85 win team in its purest form.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks made a lot of moves this offseason. They dealt Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Trevor Bauer, but got back Martin Prado, and many prospects and depth pieces. I think their pitching depth is phenomenal, but I think their top tier is lacking. On offense they have a lot of players I really like, but also have holes and question marks. This is a pretty good team and their ranking is more a function of how I feel about other teams than how I feel about them. While I told you I couldn’t put the Red Sox higher than 15th, I should probably say I can’t imagine putting the Dbacks any lower than this.
14. Oakland Athletics
Oakland is going to need some good luck to get back to 94 wins this season, but Billy Beane and they A’s had a nice offseason. They added some low cost high upside pieces that I think will pay off, but if last year’s formula is going to work, a lot of players are going to have to repeat career best type performances. I’m not sure they can do that, but I’d look for them to remain relevant into September.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have an incredible top three in their rotation and one of baseball’s best relievers anchoring their pen. They also have a great middle infield and an up and coming centerfielder. I worry deeply about everything else. They are a mess in the corners and their catcher is out for the first twenty five games of the season. This team has the ability to be very good, but I think their floor is also pretty low as well. I like them enough to put them in the top 13, but they could easily fall back if some of their gambles start to turn sour quickly.
12. New York Yankees
The Yankees are aging, but they’re still a talented team even if they aren’t the best team in the league anymore. The top of the rotation is good, but it lacks depth and offensive side is deep even if their star power is waning. A playoff berth wouldn’t surprise me for the Yanks, but I think they’ll be just on the outside this year.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
They spent a ton of money via free agency and trades, but I’m still not sold on the Dodgers as a great team. They’re weak at 3B, 2B and potentially in the corner outfield spots depending on health. They have an excellent top two in the rotation, but I don’t love it south of there. The Dodgers are a good team, but paying Crawford and Gonzalez $40 million a season doesn’t scream playoff berth. You know how I know that? The Red Sox have already tried it twice.
Check back tomorrow for spots 10-1.
2012 Season in Review: National League West
It was a big year for the National League West as the the World Series champion and the newest baseball juggernaut called the left coast home. The Dodgers spent a lot of the season as a surprise contender and then big time spender while the steady as she goes Giants took home the ultimate prize.
Here’s how the division finished up:
And for those of you tracking how it played out, here are the playoff odds from April to October
My early projection for next season looks like this:
And finally, I look back at my 2012 grades for each club.
The NL West Cy Young is Clayton Kershaw’s in a runaway, and Buster Posey takes the NL West MVP over Chase Headley.
2012 Season in Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
86-76, 2nd in the NL West
It was a big year for the Dodgers. They had a strong first half and were in contention for a wild card birth deep into September, but the big stuff happened off the field. They were sold by the McCourts to Stan Kasten, Magic Johnson, and co for $2 billion. They’re finalizing a deal with FOX for TV rights worth around $6 billion. And they also took on every bad contract they could find. This was a year of changes for the Dodgers.
Looking at WAR for position players won’t tell much of the story here because only two of them played more than 130 games, and one of those was a catcher! Injuries and trades limited playing time so the accumulative nature of WAR won’t tell the whole story. Kemp, Either, the Ellises, and Cruz led the way, but Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez were among those who contributed over a couple of months.
Clayton Kershaw had another phenomenal season (5.5 WAR) in front of Chad Billingsly (2.7) and Chris Capuano (2.1). Aaron Harang (1.5) did nicely for a fifth starter, but if you’ve been counting, we’re only at four. The rest of the starts were scattered around. The bullpen had some nice pieces, but nothing otherworldly.
The big story of the season was the changing of the guard. Kemp and Either have new deals and a ton of other players have come on board. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramierard. Kemp and Either have new deals and a ton of other players have come on board. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanlrez, Josh Beckett, and Zach Greinke are among the new faces who will be with the Dodgers in 2013 who weren’t there on Opening Day of 2012.
Certainly the Dodgers ability to spend lots of money instead of no money will make them better, but there is some debate about how much better they’ve really gotten as a result of these moves. I’m of the opinion that they’re still not a lock for the playoffs because they have a lot of question marks.
They won 86 games in 2012, but some of that was good fortune in the early days of the season. Their true ability was probably closer to 81-81 in my book. They’ll add five wins from Greinke and three or four from Gonzalez and Ramirez over what they got in 2012, but I think most of the other moves are probably a wash. They’ll be better in 2013, but I don’t think their massive payroll will guarantee them anything.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 89-73
The Dodgers Have Money, But That Doesn’t Mean They’ll Win
It should come as a surprise to no one that the Dodgers, buoyed by a new ownership group and TV deal, have a very large sum of money to pay for baseball players. Their 2013 payroll is likely to be near $250 million, or about $60 million above the luxury tax threshold, meaning they’ll pay a tax that will increase their effective payroll toward $300 million.
They took on a bunch of bad contracts in trades in 2012 and have signed expensive players in the offseason that has followed. At least in the short run, we have to assume that the Dodgers payroll constraints are such that we could not reasonably expect them to be met.
Jeff Sullivan, the best of the best at Fangraphs, wrote a piece the other day thinking about what a team of the highest paid players would look like and came to the conclusion that such a team would be a contender, but not a juggernaut. You can read the piece here.
Sullivan’s main argument is that the most expensive player is not the necessarily the best player. On that, we can all agree. What the Dodgers have the ability to do, given their vast financial resources, is outbid everyone for the best players. Put another way, in a world in which we could perfectly predict future performance, they Dodgers would have the best team.
But teams still need to predict future performance to get this right. Most MLB teams think Zach Greinke will be a better pitcher over the next five to six seasons than Anibal Sanchez, so Greinke will earn more money in free agency. But there is a decent chance we’re wrong about this prediction and Sanchez will be better.
If this occurs, Sanchez is the better player and the better investment. He will be worth more and earn less. If Greinke is the better player, Sanchez could still be the better investment because he will earn fewer dollars.
Think of it like this. A player’s value to his team is his WAR. A player’s value as an investment is his $/WAR. If Greinke is worth a healthy 30 WAR over this deal, he will help his team win 30 games, but those 30 wins will cost $4.9 million each.
If Sanchez adds 20 WAR over a five year deal but only makes $75 million, his team will only pay $3.75 million each. Greinke adds more value in the standings, but Sanchez adds more value per dollar.
The Dodgers have only conquered half of this equation. They can pay more per win than any team because they have the most money, but they still need to find the wins. If it turns out that Greinke is worth 25 wins and Sanchez is worth 30 wins over the same period, they should have signed Sanchez.
The Dodgers’ riches don’t make them better at making smart baseball moves, it means they can afford to spend more per win. They can pay Greinke more than any team, but that money will only work if they spend it on the best players. The Dodgers don’t care about the value of their investments, but they do care that their players are the best players.
They can pay $17 million to Josh Beckett to be a fifth starter when most teams would spend $7 million for that level of performance. They can pay Greinke $24 million to be a $19 million arm, but they can’t pay to make Greinke better.
This is the trap of being the Dodgers. The Dodgers are forking over a ton of cash to these players on long term deals because these big deals make sure the Dodgers get the free agent players (and trades/extensions) they wish. But if they choose the wrong players, they are stuck.
While they can buy more players if the current ones don’t perform, can they really afford to spend money to replace a big contract? Greinke makes $24.5 million a season now. If he flames out in two seasons, can the Dodgers replace him? Can they put a $25 million arm in the bullpen or on the waiver wire? Do they really have that much money?
The conflict they face is roster size and future commitment. If Carl Crawford turns out to be terrible for the Dodgers, can they just eat his contract, cut him loose and buy the next big free agent to replace him in LF? Do they have that much money? I don’t know.
The Dodgers can outbid you for the best players and spend more per win than any team in baseball, but can they spend their way out from under these contracts if they go bad?
They can afford at $250 million payroll. Can they afford to pay $250 million to an average team? What happens when they need to get better?
The flip side of this is a team like the Rays who constantly keep their costs down and derives value from young, pre-free agency players. It keeps them from having a high payroll, but it also provides something the Dodgers no longer have; flexibility.
This huge payroll limits the Dodgers flexibility. It creates a logjam. They can’t just go sign Hamilton to replace Crawford. With a $20 million guy at all 8 positions and 5 starter spots, they would pay $260 million plus the bullpen and bench. That’s workable for them I think, but only if those guys perform. What happens if one or more aren’t good enough and need to be replaced? Can they pay $40 million per position? $20 million for the new guy and $20 million for their new benchwarmer. Could they pay $60 million?
The Rays can easily jettison a $1.5 million outfielder and replace him with another, but I’m not sure you can do the same when the player you want to get rid of has four years left on his deal and is making $25 million annually.
The Dodgers can outspend everyone, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be a juggernaut and a force to be reckoned with. They still have to make the right choices. They still have to pick the best 25 players to put on their club. They’ll sign pretty much any player they want, but they have to want the right guys. If they make a mistake, I’m not so sure they can just replace them with a better player during the next offseason.
The Dodgers can outbid you, but they can’t necessarily outsmart you. If Anibal Sanchez is worth more wins than Greinke over the next few years, it will be proof of that.
Dodgers Make Yankees Blush, Sign Zach Greinke
Zach Greinke has a 6 year, $147 million deal with the Dodgers pending a physical. This deal shouldn’t be much of a surprise to anyone, especially anyone who read my post about Greinke last month. The Dodgers needed pitching and had money. They existed in the center of the Venn Diagram of “need pitching” and “have money” in which Zach Greinke would no doubt sign.
You can read my previous post to give you an idea of what I think about Greinke, but the contract is new, so let’s talk about that.
$24.5 million a season for six seasons, totaling $147 million. Not a bad gig if you can get it. I like this for the Dodgers, however, even if a lot of people will write that it is an overpay. Greinke is 29. This contract will take him into his decline years, but not that far into it. He’s easily capable of putting up a couple 4-5 win seasons during the span and those seasons will pay for themselves. There might be some lost value on the back end where he’s worth a few million less than the contract if inflation doesn’t catch up and make it a wash.
The point I’m trying to make is that if this is an overpay, it’s a small one. Over six years, it’s hard not to imagine Greinke putting up at least 3 WAR a season. That’s $90 million with no inflation and nothing better than 3 wins a season. With all the money flying around the Dodgers front office right now, whatever part of that $50 million excess cost doesn’t get picked up by inflation and better than 3 win performances, I’m sure they will be able to cover it. They have a lot of dollars, so giving a lot to Zach Greinke should be okay.
It should also help to move to a nice pitcher’s park like Dodger Stadium. And putting him next to Clayton Kershaw should be pretty awesome. Two Cy Young contenders on one club.
Money isn’t an object for the Dodgers and they needed pitching. Zach Greinke likes money and is good at pitching. This is a pretty good match. Grade: A-
New English D 