The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
The Morning Edition (April 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Three games were washed out due to inclement weather
- AJ Burnett flirts with a no-hitter enroute to a 5-0 win over the Cardinals at PNC
- Bryce Harper delivers four hits as the Nationals roll the Fish
- Wade Davis leads the Royals to a 1-0 win over the Braves, who lost for the first time in 11 tries
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Cain faces recent criminal Gallardo at Miller Park (1p Eastern)
- Jon Lester looks to stay hot in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright tries to keeps his walk-less streak going against Hamels and the Phillies (7p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Cingrani match up at GABP in a prospect-off (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did Kershaw actually give up homeruns to Everth Cabrera and Chris Denorfia or did I make that up?
AJ Burnett probably had the most interesting night for anyone that didn’t play in the Tigers game (see How Was The Game?) by nearly no-hitting a very good Cardinals lineup. It’s often easy to dismiss Burnett as some sort of headcase due to certain struggles he’s had over the years, but his stuff is really good and he’s had a pretty sneaky good career that is starting to really come full circle in the NL. Harper continues to look great in the early goings with another big game, but the power hitter I have my eye on is Giancarlo Stanton who should be back from his recent injury tomorrow.
The Morning Edition (April 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The joy of a Sox win on Patriot’s Day is marred by tragedy in Boston
- The Nats pound the Marlins behind a CG from Zimmerman
- The Reds survive a tight one against the Phillies
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Barry Zito tries to keep the magic going against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
- Chris Capuano makes his first start in place of Zach Greinke (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will the teams who didn’t play Monday wear #42?
Baseball took a backseat on Monday after attacks killed and wounded many during the Boston Marathon. Our hearts are heavy for those who lost loved ones and who are currently fighting for their lives. Boston isn’t a city that will stay down for long. For today, this Tigers fan says “Go Red Sox.”
The Morning Edition (April 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clay Buchholz makes a run at his second no-hitter in a 5-0 win over the Rays
- The Braves complete a sweep of the Nats with a 9-0 win
- Halladay goes 8, gives up 1 run in a 2-1 win over the Marlins
- The Giants outslug the Cubs in 10, win 10-7
What I’m Watching Today:
- MLB celebrates Jackie Robinson day
- Rays and Sox play a morning game on Patriot’s Day in Boston (11a Eastern)
- Cliff Lee looks to stay sharp against the Reds (7p Eastern)
- The Padres and Dodgers meet just three days after Quentin injures Greinke, but Quentin will begin serving his suspension and won’t be in the lineup (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will stand out on a day meant to honor the great #42?
Roy Halladay pitched deep into the game in Miami yesterday, temporarily quieting the whispers, but it was against one of the worst teams in the league, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. After two rough starts to get the season going, Halladay was much closer to his old self and should get a chance to fully correct his recent woes. The other big story on Sunday was the Braves completing a 3 games sweep of division rival Washington, who most, including the author, believe to be the best team in the league. Certainly one series doesn’t change my opinion of the clubs, but the Braves have played very well out of the gate and are putting early distance between themselves and the Nats. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, but every game is going to count and I’d rather be ahead than behind after two weeks.
Ahead today is the Padres and Dodgers game that will feature neither of the principals from last Thursday’s melee, but it should feature some tempers. I doubt we’ll see any beanballs given the cost of escalating the conflict further, but I expect the Dodger faithful will have something to say to the Padres as they take the field. Vin Scully will be on the mic at 10pm, try not to miss it.
It’s too early to make meaningful statistical arguments about performance, but Justin Upton and Prince Fielder are leading the MVP races over the first two weeks. In 12 games, Upton has 7 HR, a .348/.415/.891 slash line, and a 242 wRC+, good for 1.1 WAR. Fielder only has 4 HR, but his .429/.527/.833 line and 250 wRC+ are no less impressive alongside his 1.0 WAR. Like I said, it’s too early for these numbers to be predictive of anything, but both players have sustained the performances long enough to consider them noteworthy and impressive in their own rights. Many players are having good fortnights, but these two are leading the way.
Pitchingwise, it’s a bit more difficult to separate the players, but Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, and Harvey would be the arms I’d point to as the early year standouts. It’s too early to make much of it, but they, among others, have been the most fun to watch in the early goings.
The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
- Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
- Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1
What I’m Watching Today:
- Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
- Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?
The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
The Morning Edition (April 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Justin Upton’s 4-hit game powers the Braves past the Marlins
- Matt Harvey pitches brilliantly again while Halladay struggles as the Mets beat the Phillies 7-2
- Mitchell Boggs vomits up the game as the Reds rally for 9 runs in the 9th to top the Cards 13-4
- Clay Buchholz shines as the Red Sox beat the O’s on Opening Day in Boston
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jake Peavy and Gio Gonzalez hook up in D.C. (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee tries to get the Phillies rotation back on track against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- The ageless Andy Pettitte tries to quiet the Indians’ bats (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we watching the end of Roy Halladay?
Three things stood out on Monday in major league baseball. Let’s take them in turn. First, Mitchell Boggs gave up 6 earned runs to go with his four walks in 1/3 of an inning. This is particularly notable because he’s on my fantasy baseball team, so I can tell you that calculates out to a 162.00 ERA and 18.00 WHIP for the day. Good grief. Second, Matt Harvey is very good. The Phillies aren’t the best offense in baseball, but his 7IP, 3H, 1R, 2BB, 9K line is hard to ignore. For the season, he’s 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 1.14 FIP and a 12.21 K/9. Stats don’t mean much over two starts, but those are pretty snazzy. Matt Harvey is officially my non-Tiger man-crush of 2013. Third, Roy Halladay might be slipping away from us. Against the Mets on Monday he went 4IP, gave up 7 earned runs, walked 3, and struckout just 3 as well. His ERA on the season is 14.73. Again, you don’t want to make too much of the numbers, but Halladay, after a rough 2012 and rough spring, just doesn’t look like the pitcher we used to know. A one time surgeon of the strikezone, now looks as if he is using Apple Maps to find it. Just two years ago, at the start of 2011, I wouldn’t have batted an eye that Doc was the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he didn’t make my top 9 NL pitchers. I’m not sure he’s in the top 40 right now. He has to be hurt, right? It’s tough to watch.
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
The Morning Edition (April 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- BJ Upton hits a game tying homerun in the 9th inning against the Cubs, Justin Upton follows him with a walk off
- The Nats top the Reds in 11 innings
- Albert Pujols’ big day powers the Angels past the Rangers
- Kershaw blanks the Pirates over 7 innings in LA
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Dickey face off in Toronto (1p Eastern)
- Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez makes his MLB debut at Citi Field (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg looks to follow his excellent opening day against the Reds (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Angels in his near perfecto encore (8p Eastern)
- Lots of other aces in action including: Sabathia, Verlander, Cueto, Samardizija, Shields, Hamels, Price, Sale, Wainwright, Cain, and Weaver
The Big Question:
- What first week standouts will carry their success into week two of the season?
The first week of the MLB season is always exciting but it is often hard to distinguish between players because of very small sample sizes. I’m looking forward to seeing which players level out and regress to the mean and which players are in for better and worse than expected seasons. We really want to make meaningful conclusions about these games, but it’s just too early. That said, aside from Chris Davis, here are a couple players I’m watching at the start of week two to see if they are candidates for early season standout status:
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Justin Upton
- Chase Utley
- Austin Jackson
None of those players are surprises, they just have my attention for now for various reasons. The first two are on new clubs, Utley looks healthy, and Jackson is a talented guy entering his prime on a great club.
Thanks for reading New English D this week and we look forward to talking baseball with you throughout the season.
2013 Season Preview: National League East
On Monday, STT previewed the NL West. Today, the Eastern division in the Senior Circuit is on tap.
Last season the Nationals surprised many (but not me, they were my pick to win the division) by accumulating the most wins in baseball, while the Braves made the fake playoffs and lost a coin flip game that featured garbage being thrown on the field. The Phillies disappointed and the Mets made a pretty good first half run. The Marlins stumbled and then blew up their franchise in a way only the Marlins could.
The Nationals and Braves both had big offseasons while the Phillies did weird stuff like signing Delmon Young to play defense. The Mets dealt Dickey for a good haul and extended David Wright. The Marlins traded everyone who isn’t Giancarlo Stanton, and he’ll be gone inside twelve months two I’m sure.
Here’s how the 2013 NL East looks according to STT. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L prediction, 2013 Preseason MLB Power Ranking]
5. Miami Marlins (63-99, 29)
I’ve made no secret of my disgust with the Marlins fire sale over the last several months and won’t rehash it at length here. They have but one player on their entire projected opening day roster that is a lock to have a 2 WAR or better season if healthy. Only Giancarlo Stanton is anything more than a bench type player going into 2013. They will no doubt have some surprises and I’m excited to see former Tigers Jacob Turner and Rob Brantly get a shot at the big leagues, but this team is so devoid of talent it borders on the criminal.
4. New York Mets (78-84, 18)
I’m actually kind of bullish on the Mets. I think their rotation of Santana, Niese, Harvey, Gee, and eventually Wheeler could be very good and they’ve made some good bullpen signings. David Wright is a centerpiece and they have some good supporting pieces in guys like Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy. The Mets need an outfield. I think they’re one great player and one pretty good player away from being a legitimate contender and maybe only one good player away from making noise. Even if they don’t make a playoff run, I’m excited to watch the Mets rotation in 2013.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (84-78, 13)
The Phillies rotation is too amazing at the top for them to be any lower on this list even if the rest of the team is questionable. Up the middle, the Phillies can play with anyone with the likes of Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ben Revere to match Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. The problem is that the corners are potential black holes of terrible. Michael and Delmon Young are written in as starters for 2013 and they were literally among the five worst starters in baseball last season costing their teams more than two wins combined. Ryan Howard has been a bit of problem at first given his lack of four tools. Each of these players could have bounce back years, but I’m not betting on it. The pitching and the middle will hold the Phillies up, but they won’t make it to the top.
2. Atlanta Braves (90-72, 4)
The Braves added Uptons for 2013 but lost Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, which makes me think they’ll be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. Which was good. The Braves have a great outfield and infielders who have the potential to really contribute. Their starters are solid and their bullpen is second to none. The Braves are a well-balanced club with no glaring holes. Other than Dan Uggla’s defense.
1. Washington Nationals (95-67, 1)
I’ve also made no secret of my belief in the Nationals on these pages and this is merely a formality. They were baseball’s best team last season and got better by any definition. Even if you expect regression by some, you should probably anticipate improvement by others. Their pitching staff is only challenged by the Tigers and Rays for the best in baseball and the Nats have a good bullpen and well-rounded offense. It’s hard to imagine a scenario without disproportionate injuries that doesn’t have the Nationals among the best teams in baseball for 2013.
NL East Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
NL East MVP: Jason Heyward
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Justin Upton
Division Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Chase Utley stays healthy and has a big year.
Boldest of the Bold: Freddie Freeman will make the All-Star team.
New English D 