In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the June 4 games.
Before the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings projection based on the games from the previous week, and at the beginning of every month, have synthesized that into league-wide power rankings. What follows are my MLB Power Rankings for June 2013. (You can find May’s here.)
The idea is simple. I ranked the teams at the beginning of the season based on how well I thought they would perform over the entire season. I am doing the same thing here, but I just have new information to include based on a months worth of games and injuries.
30. Miami Marlins (May Ranking: 30)
The Marlins are on pace for fewer wins than the 2003 Tigers and currently have the league’s worst offensive by wRC+ and WAR and the 6th worst pitching staff by WAR. As a team they are hitting .221/.281/.316. That line isn’t really isn’t good enough to stay in the major leagues as a bench player unless you’re a great defender. The Marlins are terrible and not in a hopeful way like the Astros.
29. Houston Astros (29)
The Astros have the 9th worst offense in the league and 2nd worst pitching staff, but they do have an air of decency surrounding them. They have something to prove, while the Marlins have nothing for which to live. Neither team is any good, but the Astros are better in my book.
28. Minnesota Twins (27)
The Twins have a bad offense, a bad defense, and mediocre pitching that is performing above and beyond what it is probably capable of for an entire season. The sum total of their position players (2.3 WAR) has been dragged above zero entirely by their best player, Joe Mauer (2.3 WAR). The Twins aren’t the abject failures that the Marlins are, and they have some major league level talent, but they’re nowhere near good.
27. San Diego Padres (26)
I was mildly bullish on the Padres entering the season, figuring they could hit well enough to hang around .500 with some solid pitching. Well, the offense has actually done the job (97 wRC+), but the pitching has been the worst in baseball (-2.7 WAR) with a really terrible FIP (4.56) despite playing half their games in Petco Park.
26. Seattle Mariners (24)
The Mariners’ ranks (18th best offense, 13th best pitching) probably deserve a higher spot on this list, but I can’t do it. Kyle Seager is a solid player and Kendrys Morales is having a nice bounce back year, but when those two guys are your offensive studs, it’s probably going to be a long season.
25. Chicago Cubs (28)
The Cubs move up on the list because their offense has proven itself to be close to average while their pitching is showing itself to be decidedly above average. They’re 19th in offense (94 wRC+), but they are the 11th best staff (5.5 WAR) and have just recently gotten Matt Garza back. They’re likely to trade off their valuable pieces, so I can’t seem them finishing very high in the standings, but they are good enough to challenge the Brewers for 4th place in the Central.
24. New York Mets (20)
The Mets have the 5th worst offense in the game (88 wRC+) and 5th worst defense (-13.1 UZR) in baseball. Their pitching, which I loved entering the season hasn’t done enough (3.7 WAR) to keep me interested in their chances. With Santana hurt and Niese and Gee performing below expectations, Matt Harvey, as great as he is, cannot save them. They’ll get help from Wheeler this summer, but this isn’t a team destined for great things.
23. Kansas City Royals (21)
The Royals improved their pitching staff during the offseason by trading their best position player prospect and it has resulted in the 14th best pitching staff in the league (4.5 WAR) and the 27th best offense (84 wRC+). I was very critical at the time and won’t rehash it for you except to say that even at their best, the Royals are a .500 team. Anyone who expected more was fooling themselves and misunderstanding the quality of their players or what contributes to success in MLB.
22. Chicago White Sox (22)
I admittedly overshot my Sox prediction this year out of fear that they would overperform again. Looks like my caution was unwarranted as the only team producing less on offense is the Marlins (75 wRC+). They get credit for good pitching (8.1 WAR, 4th in MLB), but I’m not convinced that their staff can stay healthy while also getting some recovery from the lineup.
21. Colorado Rockies (25)
I thought the Rockies would be awful, and it looks like they’re just going to be meh. They’ve jumped up the list in both installations, but they were 12-16 in May and look more like that type of team than the one that had the best record in baseball for some of April. Their offense has fallen back to 16th in the league, even if the pitching is still inexplicably hanging in the top 10. Their early season wins will keep them out of the cellar, but they aren’t a great team.
20. Milwaukee Brewers (19)
The Brewers have a solid offense (98 wRC+) that is carried by three standouts, Gomez, Segura, and Braun, but their pitching staff has been really terrible (0.6 WAR). You aren’t winning anything with that kind of pitching, even if you can score a good amount of runs.
19. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)
When I expressed doubts about the Dodgers this preseason, I was doubting their ability to be great in the way that many national writes thought they would be. The $216 million payroll made lots of people think Yankees, but the Dodgers roster was built with players past their prime. So I said they’d be in the Wild Card conversation, not anywhere near the best team in the league. I got half of that right – they aren’t anywhere close to the best team – but I also missed on the Wild Card part so far. I don’t think they’re this bad, but I don’t think they’re good. The offense ranks 17th and the pitching ranks 21st in baseball, and that is with the great Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers just aren’t very good.
18. Philadelphia Phillies (18)
The Phillies have the 25th ranked offense and 26th ranked pitching so far, which isn’t great at all. However, I think this is their floor and they are still 26-29. They’ll get more from Hamels and Halladay should pitch at the end of the season and Utley will eventually be back. I don’t think they’re good, but they’re doing okay, and I’m not sure they can get worse.
17. Los Angeles Angels (13)
I had the same questions about the Angels that I did about the Dodgers, sort of, entering the year. They have a good offense, but they spent their money on an expensive and bad Josh Hamilton instead of improving their bad pitching staff. It’s cost them. They have the league’s 7th best offense, but 17th best pitching staff and they are already 9.5 games behind the Rangers with another team in between. They’ll play better the rest of the way, but the hole is already too deep.
16. Toronto Blue Jays (12)
Their 99 wRC+ is 13th best in baseball, but their staff ranks 24th with just 2.8 WAR. Partly, this is injuries and partly this is poor performance. Reyes and Johnson will come back. Dickey should get better than this. In general, everything I said could go wrong with Toronto is going wrong at it’s reflected in their 23-32 record. Like the Phillies, there is nowhere to go but up, but that doesn’t mean they’ll get there. Right now, Baseball Prospectus has the Jays playoff odds at less than 2%. I have to agree.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates (17)
The Bucs are going to finally finish over .500. I think. Their offense (93 wRC+) isn’t much to look at, and their pitching (4.2 WAR) is just about average, but they get credit for turning that into a 34-21 record so far. I don’t think they’ll play near this pace the rest of the way, but they only need to play at a 72 win pace the rest of the way to get to 82 wins. It’s going to happen. Probably. Maybe. Man…I don’t know.
14. Cleveland Indians (23)
The Indians are the big movers on the list for a couple reasons. First, they were ranked lower than they should have been in the preseason because the rankings came out just before they got Michael Borun and because I was very cautious above big moves in May because April is often deceiving. But after two months of play, I’m ready to concede the Indians are a good team. They aren’t a playoff team in my book, but they are certainly the second best team in the Central. Right now, they lead the league with a 111 wRC+ and their pitching (3.4 WAR, 22nd in MLB) hasn’t been bad enough to slow them down. Masterson is back to being a good MLB starter and the offense is absolutely for real. They’re a 80-85 win team, but that’s way better than I had them at the start. My bad guys, my bad.
13. Baltimore Orioles (16)
The O’s can hit (111 wRC+), but they aren’t great on the hill (3.3 WAR, 23rd in MLB). They’re certainly a contender, but there are three teams in the AL East I like better this season, but they’re slowly climbing the list as a reward for good performance.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks (15)
I missed a little on the Diamondbacks this preseason because I got distracted by trades I considered to be bad long term moves. But in the short run, they weren’t so bad and the Dbacks do have a very nice team. The offense is 20th in baseball, but the staff is deep (8th in MLB). I love their defense and their young talent and they can absolutely beat the Giants in the West.
11. San Francisco Giants (7)
Speaking of the champs, it’s bizzaro world out at AT&T. They have the 8th best offense in baseball (104 wRC+) and the 27th ranked pitching staff (2.5 WAR). They’re 29-25 despite that and I expect the staff will regress back to the mean, meaning they’ll pitch more like themselves in the second half. That said, I’m not sure I can reasonably consider them a top ten team until I actually see the results.
10. Oakland Athletics (9)
The A’s are right where they belong (11th ranked offense, 10th ranked pitching) and the 32-24 record reflects that. This is a good team built with less than recognizable faces and it’s managed very well. I’m not sure if I’d bet on them to make the playoffs, but they will absolutely be relevant in September.
9. Boston Red Sox (11)
I liked what Boston did this offseason, but I didn’t expect their leading men, Lester, and Buchholz, to also restore themselves in the way that they did. It’s clear at this point that the Sox are legitimate contenders and should be in this until the end.
8. New York Yankees (10)
The Yankees are 31-23 without a single game from Tex, A-Rod, Jeter, or basically Granderson. When the reinforcements come, it should help sustain the performance. I had them down for 86 wins and I think that’s just a little light at the moment considering they’re baseball’s 3rd best staff (8.3 WAR) and are expecting their sluggers back in the next few weeks.
7. Washington Nationals (3)
The Nationals are slowly falling for me. I had them as the best team entering the season and I still believe in their talent, but I do have to adjust my expectations realistically. Gio stumbled a bit and Strasburg has an injury to deal with while Harper has been great, but looks to be hurt as well. They’re just not hitting at all (82 wRC+). I still like them for the playoffs, but they’ve missed 1/3 of the season that they could have been using to set the pace and now getting back on track is the goal rather than setting their October rotation.
6. Tampa Bay Rays (5)
I stuck with the Rays last month after early season stumbles and that looks to have been a sage choice. They are 30-24 are going 18-10 in May and have baseball’s 2nd best offense at the moment (111 wRC+). The pitching is somewhat lower than expected, but David Price wasn’t himself and was hurt, but should be back for the second half. I’m buying the Rays.
5. Cincinnati Reds (6)
The Reds are third in baseball by wins and losses and 11th on offense (102 wRC+) and 9th on the mound (6.0 WAR), which generally makes for a good club. They have Votto and Choo who are raking and a host of other very good complimentary pieces. If only Dusty Baker could figure out that hitting your worst hitter 2nd because he can “handle the bat and bunt” is a terrible thing, they might just run away and hide.
4. Atlanta Braves (1)
The Braves gave themselves a nice April cushion but 15-13 in May is worth pumping the brakes slightly. They can hit (105 wRC+) and haven’t even gotten anything from BJ Upton or Heyward, but the staff is 16th best in baseball and bullpen injuries could pull them back to the pack a bit. They look like a playoff team, but I don’t think they’re the best team.
3. Texas Rangers (4)
You’re sick of hearing it if you’re a regular at the site, but I TOLD YOU THE RANGERS WOULD BE FINE. And they are. The 9th best offense (104 wRC+) and 2nd best staff (10.1 WAR) will do that for you. They don’t miss Hamilton or Napoli a lick and look poised to strut their way to October.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (8)
35-18 is hard to ignore. So is the 5th best staff in the game (7.9 WAR) who has a league best 3.09 team ERA. They’re also reasonable good at the dish (103 wRC+). There isn’t anything not to like, except perhaps the bullpen, and the best record after two months has to count for something.
1. Detroit Tigers (2)
I promise you this isn’t a biased pick. I actually do think the Tigers are the best team and I think this entry will stand up to scrutiny. They’re the fourth best offense in the league (108 wRC+) and far and away the best staff (13.4 WAR). Their starting rotation, as I’ve shown in many posts on this site, is incredible. They have 4 of the best 10 pitchers in the league by WAR this year (and two of the guys above them are a start ahead) and their team FIP and xFIP are both more than a quarter run better than 2nd place. The Tigers can pitch like crazy, but are also a top 5 offense. You know on this site I draw heavily from advanced metrics and if you ranked the teams by position player and pitcher WAR the Tigers are in 1st and it’s not close. The Tigers are 4.3 WAR ahead of 2nd place. They’re something like 5% better than second place by WAR and are only a couple wins off the best record in the AL.
Thoughts on the list? Post a comment.
I’ve had this question for a long time and it wasn’t until today, for some reason, that I realized how easy it would be to answer. A buddy of mine and I used to wonder who would win in a fantasy baseball league in which you drafted only players from your favorite teams. Extending that question further, which MLB team would win if they played in a Roto Fantasy Baseball league?
Here’s how it worked. I took each team’s totals in the standard 10 categories (R, HR, SB, RBI, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP) and ranked each team and gave them a point total 1-30 in each category with 30 points for the best in the league at each category (Ties split points). I then summed the point totals and ranked each team by total point value.
Next I scaled the fantasy points total into the equivalent value of real wins, which turned out to be much more widely distributed than I was hoping for which led me to simply rank each by fantasy wins and real wins and then take the difference between the two. Teams with negative differences do worse in fantasy baseball and teams with positive differences do better in fantasy baseball.
Here are the results:
I’ll call your attention to the values in red. 27 teams had fantasy win ranks within six places of their real win rankings. The exceptions are the Brewers who would much rather play fantasy baseball and the Reds and Athletics who are very glad that they do not have to. This speaks to the Brewers as a very traditional stat heavy team and the Reds and A’s as teams who accumulate their wins through things like defense, walks, etc.
I’m not sure if we can take too much from this, but if you were wondering how your team would stack up if you drafted them all, this is how it would look. Yes, Tim Jennings, I would have won.