How Was The Game? (September 11, 2013)
Another great one from Sanchez.
Tigers 1, White Sox 0 (Magic # = 11)
Anibal Sanchez (26 GS, 165.2 IP, 2.50 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 5.6 WAR) followed Rick Porcello’s lead and gave the Tigers 7.1 great innings of shutout baseball featuring 10 strikeouts and 3 walks as he continued to roll passed AL offenses and into the back end of the Cy Young race with a couple of starts left. The Tigers bats had some chances in this one but it took them 8 innings to push across their first and only run thanks to an Infante RBI single that plated Prince Fielder. Veras, Smyly, and Benoit held serve in the 8th and 9th and the Tigers jumped back up to 6.5 ahead of the Cleveland Indians with Justin Verlander (30 GS, 192.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 4.1 WAR) getting the ball to start the final homestand on Friday.
The Moment: Infante pushes across the Tigers only run with a single through the left side.
How Was The Game? (September 10, 2013)
Finally a chance for Porcello to finish what he started.
Tigers 9, White Sox 1
After a disappointing game on Monday, the Tigers struck back and struck back hard with a great performance by Rick Porcello (27 GS, 162 IP, 4.56 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 2.5 WAR) and some big hits that capitalized on some horrible White Sox defense. Fielder was on base four times and Avila made it to first five times while eight different Tigers touched home plate en route to the big win than included three errors from Conor Gillaspie and one more from Paul Konerko for good measure. But the story on this night was the man on the mound. Porcello gave the Tigers 9, 1 run innings with one walk and 4 strikeouts while retiring the final 17 he faced as he notched his first career complete game in his 147th career start. It was just the third for the Tigers this year, courtesy of Jim Leyland’s personal vendetta against allowing a starter to pitch the ninth inning. Win number 83 leaves the Tigers 5.5 games up in the AL Central with 17 to play and Anibal Sanchez (25 GS, 158.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 5.2 WAR) on the mound trying to take the series on Wednesday.
The Moment: Rick Porcello gets a chance to go the distance and doesn’t disappoint.
How Was The Game? (September 9, 2013)
Bad at the start and didn’t get much better.
White Sox 5, Tigers 1
Max Scherzer (29 GS, 194.1 IP, 3.01 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 5.9 WAR) just didn’t have his best stuff tonight, giving up 5 runs in 4 innings in part thanks to some poor defense on his part, but it wouldn’t have mattered too much as the bats couldn’t get it going against the excellent Chris Sale. The story of this one came in the 1st inning when Miguel Cabrera was ejected by the HP umpire after being hit by a pitch. The umpire ruled he swung (which was a borderline call) and didn’t honor Cabrera’s request to check with the first base umpire. Cabrera jawed at him, but not menacingly so and was thrown from the game because the umpire wanted to be on television (probably?). Leyland got his money’s worth and, wouldn’t you know it, Santiago had the same thing happen to him a few innings later! Although he didn’t get ejected. The Tigers will try to get back on track Tuesday against the Sox with Rick Porcello (26 GS, 153 IP, 4.76 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.2 WAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Miguel Cabrera gets ejected for getting hit by a pitch!
Should The Tigers Bring Peralta Back for The Playoffs?
Very shortly, the Tigers are going to have to decide whether or not they’ll bring Jhonny Peralta back for the postseason. We’re three weeks from the end of the season and Peralta will presumably require some time to get himself back into game shape. The conversations are happening now, I would imagine, and we should know in the near future. Let’s assess the arguments for and against.
THE CASE AGAINST
There are two primary arguments against bringing Peralta back for the playoff run. First, Peralta’s skills might have atrophied over the course of the fifty game suspension such that he won’t be able to contribute above what a player like Ramon Santiago could. This is entirely possible, but it would require some sort of evaluation in order to believe. Peralta was crushing the ball before the suspension and there is no reason to think the 2013 season was PED aided, so the case would have to be made that he is out of game shape and the only way that case could be made would be to test him with baseball activities and simulated games. If Peralta was on the DL and not suspended, the Tigers would make every effort to get him ready for October even if he missed the same number of games.
The other argument against Peralta coming back is personal. It’s possible that the team is angry with him and wouldn’t be receptive to his presence in the clubhouse. Other than Scherzer, most of the Tigers kept their heads down about Biogenesis and Scherzer tempered his reaction once the full story on Peralta came to light. On top of that, the word is that Peralta was extremely well liked within the organization. I’m open to the idea that his presence could negatively affect the team, but the reactions to his suspension suggests that won’t be the case. The Tigers are a practical and forgiving organization.
So the case against Peralta hinges on two issues. Can he still contribute and would his presence create a hostile environment? We’ll revisit those questions shortly.
THE CASE FOR
Assuming the Peralta wouldn’t shake up the clubhouse, the case to bring him back is based on how well he can play. Entering the suspension, Peralta had what is still the second highest WAR (what’s WAR?) on the team at 3.6. He hit .305/.361/.461. Among the full time guys, only Cabrera has a higher OBP and SLG. Peralta has also been an above average defender for three years running now, although he is clearly no Iglesias in that regard. His value is predicated on his ability to hit and entering the suspension he was one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. The league average shortstop hits 15% worse than league average and Peralta hit 25% better in 2013.
The argument isn’t really whether or not Peralta will be better than Iglesias in the postseason, the questions is if he is one of the 14 best position players in the organization. It’s hard to make the case that even after 50 games off he wouldn’t at least be better than Santiago or Tuiasosopo. If you leave Iglesias at short and Dirks in left, you have five bench spots to use. One is for Pena, obviously, and you need at least one backup outfielder, but it’s hard to make the case that there are three other Tigers you’d rather have on your bench.
In reality, he’s probably better than Iglesias, but that is still up for debate considering defense and time off, but he’s certainly better than Santiago, Tui, Kelly, and company. No doubt, no question.
THE VERDICT
So it comes down to this. If the Tigers players view Peralta as a clubhouse cancer, then it’s reasonable to say thanks but no thanks when it’s time to set the playoff roster. But short of that, the Tigers must include him. The Tigers don’t owe it to Peralta – who dug this hole himself – they owe it to everyone else. The players worked too hard and the fans have given too much not to put the best 25 guys on the roster.
It’s perfectly reasonable to say that after this break Peralta won’t be as productive as Iglesias overall, but when the opposing manager brings in a left-handed reliever to face Andy Dirks in the 7th inning of a 2 run game, do you want to go with Tuiasosopo or Jhonny Peralta? In the World Series, when you need to pinch hit for the pitcher, do you want to call on Avila or do you want Jhonny Peralta?
Even a lesser version of Peralta is a better bat off the bench than most of the options the Tigers have. Even if the time off has hurt his skills, it certainly didn’t diminish them to the point that he can’t be a productive postseason pinch hitter. This isn’t a fringe player, this is a guy who was and still is the Tigers second best player in 2013. If you’re going to go all in like the Tigers have for a title, you can’t leave this weapon in the shed.
This isn’t the time to make a stand on morality – a stand the Tigers didn’t make when Miguel Cabrera was arrested during the final weekend of the 2009 season. Peralta will have served his time and the Tigers are lined up for their best chance at a parade since 1984. You have to use him even if you don’t start him. If Iglesias or Infante or Cabrera get hurt in October, surely you would want him then. And you can’t ask him to be ready out of nowhere on October 9th, you have to start now. The practical thing to do is to get him working back into game shape and bring him along as a reserve.
How Was The Game? (September 8, 2013)
The standard Chen-experience.
Royals 5, Tigers 2
Doug Fister (29 GS, 186 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 4.0 WAR) did nice work today except for a three batter stretch that would prove decisive in the 5th inning. Gordon reached on an infield hit that Martinez knocked down and then Bonifacio knocked a single to right field to bring Hosmer to the plate with 2 on and 2 out. Fister got behind 2-0 but worked back even before leaving a fastball over the plate that Hosmer belted out to dead center. Aside from that Fister did his job, allowing 5 total runs in 6.1 innings while striking out 4 and walking just one. You don’t get extra credit for bunching up the damage, but Fister looked good other than a very poorly timed mistake pitch. The fault belongs with the offense who couldn’t score against Chen and the ‘pen aside from the Iglesias homerun in the 3rd and the Tigers dropped the series. They’ll pack up and head to Chicago to meetup with the White Sox for three starting Monday behind Max Scherzer (28 GS, 190.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 5.7 WAR).
The Moment: Iglesias turns on one against Bruce Chen in the 3rd.
SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (September 8, 2013)
You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Additionally, SOEFA penalizes pitchers like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera who have done a very poor job when they have been asked to strand runners this season despite great numbers in other categories.
Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.10 and the inherited runner threshold has been increased from 5 to 8. SOEFA is a rate stat not a counting stat. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section. Also, as we look to improve SOEFA for next season, let us know if you have any suggestions!
| Rank | Player | Team | SOEFA |
| 1 | Neal Cotts | Rangers | 1.01 |
| 2 | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 0.93 |
| 3 | Greg Holland | Royals | 0.92 |
| 4 | Koji Uehara | Red Sox | 0.90 |
| 5 | Kevin Siegrist | Cardinals | 0.87 |
| 6 | Mark Melancon | Pirates | 0.81 |
| 7 | Craig Kimbrel | Braves | 0.79 |
| 8 | Javier Lopez | Giants | 0.78 |
| 9 | Jesse Crain | White Sox | 0.78 |
| 10 | Drew Smyly | Tigers | 0.75 |
| 11 | Will Smith | Royals | 0.71 |
| 12 | Sergio Romo | Giants | 0.70 |
| 13 | Jordan Walden | Braves | 0.70 |
| 14 | Louis Coleman | Royals | 0.70 |
| 15 | Chris Withrow | Dodgers | 0.69 |
| 16 | Jason Grilli | Pirates | 0.67 |
| 17 | Luke Hochevar | Royals | 0.67 |
| 18 | Nick Vincent | Padres | 0.67 |
| 19 | Edward Mujica | Cardinals | 0.66 |
| 20 | Alex Torres | Rays | 0.65 |
| 21 | Sam LeCure | Reds | 0.64 |
| 22 | Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | 0.62 |
| 23 | Sean Doolittle | Athletics | 0.59 |
| 24 | Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 0.58 |
| 25 | Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.57 |
| 26 | Jim Henderson | Brewers | 0.56 |
| 27 | Brandon Kintzler | Brewers | 0.54 |
| 28 | Brian Matusz | Orioles | 0.54 |
| 29 | Paco Rodriguez | Dodgers | 0.54 |
| 30 | Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 0.52 |
| 31 | Jason Frasor | Rangers | 0.52 |
| 32 | Glen Perkins | Twins | 0.52 |
| 33 | Carlos Torres | Mets | 0.51 |
| 34 | Juan Perez | Blue Jays | 0.50 |
| 35 | Antonio Bastardo | Phillies | 0.50 |
| 36 | Casey Fien | Twins | 0.48 |
| 37 | Aroldis Chapman | Reds | 0.47 |
| 38 | Dan Otero | Athletics | 0.47 |
| 39 | Tommy Hunter | Orioles | 0.47 |
| 40 | Shawn Kelley | Yankees | 0.47 |
| 41 | Andrew Miller | Red Sox | 0.47 |
| 42 | Joel Peralta | Rays | 0.46 |
| 43 | Jake Diekman | Phillies | 0.45 |
| 44 | Manny Parra | Reds | 0.45 |
| 45 | Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 0.45 |
| 46 | Bobby Parnell | Mets | 0.44 |
| 47 | Will Harris | Diamondbacks | 0.43 |
| 48 | Randy Choate | Cardinals | 0.43 |
| 49 | Seth Maness | Cardinals | 0.43 |
| 50 | Matt Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 0.42 |
| 51 | Vin Mazzaro | Pirates | 0.42 |
| 52 | Junichi Tazawa | Red Sox | 0.41 |
| 53 | Joe Thatcher | – – – | 0.41 |
| 54 | Donovan Hand | Brewers | 0.41 |
| 55 | Francisco Rodriguez | – – – | 0.40 |
| 56 | Chad Qualls | Marlins | 0.40 |
| 57 | Luis Avilan | Braves | 0.40 |
| 58 | Jonathan Papelbon | Phillies | 0.40 |
| 59 | Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 0.39 |
| 60 | Brad Ziegler | Diamondbacks | 0.38 |
| 61 | Scott Downs | – – – | 0.37 |
| 62 | Josh Outman | Rockies | 0.37 |
| 63 | Addison Reed | White Sox | 0.36 |
| 64 | Darren O’Day | Orioles | 0.36 |
| 65 | David Carpenter | Braves | 0.36 |
| 66 | Steve Cishek | Marlins | 0.35 |
| 67 | Preston Claiborne | Yankees | 0.35 |
| 68 | Tanner Scheppers | Rangers | 0.35 |
| 69 | J.P. Howell | Dodgers | 0.35 |
| 70 | Jean Machi | Giants | 0.34 |
| 71 | Tony Watson | Pirates | 0.33 |
| 72 | Ross Ohlendorf | Nationals | 0.33 |
| 73 | Ernesto Frieri | Angels | 0.33 |
| 74 | Robbie Ross | Rangers | 0.33 |
| 75 | Santiago Casilla | Giants | 0.33 |
| 76 | Ryan Cook | Athletics | 0.32 |
| 77 | Jerome Williams | Angels | 0.31 |
| 78 | Tom Gorzelanny | Brewers | 0.31 |
| 79 | Tyler Clippard | Nationals | 0.31 |
| 80 | Casey Janssen | Blue Jays | 0.31 |
| 81 | David Robertson | Yankees | 0.30 |
| 82 | Craig Breslow | Red Sox | 0.29 |
| 83 | Nate Jones | White Sox | 0.28 |
| 84 | Tim Collins | Royals | 0.27 |
| 85 | Danny Farquhar | Mariners | 0.27 |
| 86 | Grant Balfour | Athletics | 0.27 |
| 87 | Mariano Rivera | Yankees | 0.27 |
| 88 | Cody Allen | Indians | 0.27 |
| 89 | Joe Smith | Indians | 0.26 |
| 90 | Carlos Villanueva | Cubs | 0.26 |
| 91 | Jeanmar Gomez | Pirates | 0.26 |
| 92 | Aaron Loup | Blue Jays | 0.26 |
| 93 | Matt Belisle | Rockies | 0.25 |
| 94 | Anthony Varvaro | Braves | 0.25 |
| 95 | Neil Wagner | Blue Jays | 0.25 |
| 96 | Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.23 |
| 97 | Jared Burton | Twins | 0.22 |
| 98 | Craig Stammen | Nationals | 0.22 |
| 99 | Chad Gaudin | Giants | 0.22 |
| 100 | Jamey Wright | Rays | 0.22 |
| 101 | Luke Gregerson | Padres | 0.21 |
| 102 | Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 0.21 |
| 103 | Luis Ayala | – – – | 0.20 |
| 104 | Brian Duensing | Twins | 0.20 |
| 105 | Jose Veras | – – – | 0.19 |
| 106 | Blake Parker | Cubs | 0.18 |
| 107 | Rafael Betancourt | Rockies | 0.17 |
| 108 | Carter Capps | Mariners | 0.17 |
| 109 | Caleb Thielbar | Twins | 0.17 |
| 110 | Luke Putkonen | Tigers | 0.17 |
| 111 | Wilton Lopez | Rockies | 0.17 |
| 112 | Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0.17 |
| 113 | Dan Jennings | Marlins | 0.16 |
| 114 | Oliver Perez | Mariners | 0.16 |
| 115 | Fernando Rodney | Rays | 0.16 |
| 116 | Rex Brothers | Rockies | 0.16 |
| 117 | Mike Dunn | Marlins | 0.15 |
| 118 | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 0.15 |
| 119 | J.J. Putz | Diamondbacks | 0.15 |
| 120 | Alfredo Figaro | Brewers | 0.14 |
| 121 | Dale Thayer | Padres | 0.13 |
| 122 | Anthony Swarzak | Twins | 0.13 |
| 123 | Yoervis Medina | Mariners | 0.12 |
| 124 | Scott Rice | Mets | 0.11 |
| 125 | Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 0.11 |
| 126 | Matt Lindstrom | White Sox | 0.11 |
| 127 | Kevin Gregg | Cubs | 0.11 |
| 128 | Bryan Shaw | Indians | 0.10 |
| 129 | Rafael Soriano | Nationals | 0.10 |
| 130 | J.J. Hoover | Reds | 0.10 |
| 131 | Sandy Rosario | Giants | 0.09 |
| 132 | Justin Wilson | Pirates | 0.08 |
| 133 | Andrew Bailey | Red Sox | 0.08 |
| 134 | Ross Wolf | Rangers | 0.07 |
| 135 | Kelvin Herrera | Royals | 0.07 |
| 136 | Bruce Rondon | Tigers | 0.07 |
| 137 | J.C. Gutierrez | – – – | 0.07 |
| 138 | Joe Nathan | Rangers | 0.07 |
| 139 | Joe Kelly | Cardinals | 0.06 |
| 140 | Adam Ottavino | Rockies | 0.06 |
| 141 | James Russell | Cubs | 0.06 |
| 142 | Ryan Webb | Marlins | 0.06 |
| 143 | Heath Bell | Diamondbacks | 0.05 |
| 144 | Michael Kohn | Angels | 0.05 |
| 145 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.04 |
| 146 | Jim Johnson | Orioles | 0.04 |
| 147 | Matt Thornton | – – – | 0.04 |
| 148 | Manuel Corpas | Rockies | 0.04 |
| 149 | LaTroy Hawkins | Mets | 0.03 |
| 150 | Darren Oliver | Blue Jays | 0.03 |
| 151 | Fernando Abad | Nationals | 0.02 |
| 152 | Matt Guerrier | – – – | 0.01 |
| 153 | Josh Edgin | Mets | 0.00 |
| 154 | Edgmer Escalona | Rockies | -0.01 |
| 155 | Kevin Jepsen | Angels | -0.03 |
| 156 | Joe Ortiz | Rangers | -0.03 |
| 157 | Pat Neshek | Athletics | -0.03 |
| 158 | Ryan Pressly | Twins | -0.03 |
| 159 | Gonzalez Germen | Mets | -0.03 |
| 160 | Dane de la Rosa | Angels | -0.04 |
| 161 | Burke Badenhop | Brewers | -0.04 |
| 162 | Ronald Belisario | Dodgers | -0.04 |
| 163 | Chris Perez | Indians | -0.04 |
| 164 | Rob Scahill | Rockies | -0.05 |
| 165 | Tyler Thornburg | Brewers | -0.05 |
| 166 | Tony Sipp | Diamondbacks | -0.05 |
| 167 | Huston Street | Padres | -0.06 |
| 168 | David Aardsma | Mets | -0.07 |
| 169 | Jerry Blevins | Athletics | -0.09 |
| 170 | Logan Ondrusek | Reds | -0.10 |
| 171 | Darin Downs | Tigers | -0.11 |
| 172 | Jared Hughes | Pirates | -0.12 |
| 173 | Troy Patton | Orioles | -0.13 |
| 174 | Phil Coke | Tigers | -0.14 |
| 175 | Josh Fields | Astros | -0.14 |
| 176 | Josh Roenicke | Twins | -0.14 |
| 177 | Jake McGee | Rays | -0.14 |
| 178 | Aaron Crow | Royals | -0.14 |
| 179 | Fernando Salas | Cardinals | -0.16 |
| 180 | Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners | -0.16 |
| 181 | Cesar Ramos | Rays | -0.17 |
| 182 | Rich Hill | Indians | -0.17 |
| 183 | Drew Storen | Nationals | -0.18 |
| 184 | Wesley Wright | – – – | -0.18 |
| 185 | Jose Mijares | Giants | -0.18 |
| 186 | Raul Valdes | Phillies | -0.19 |
| 187 | Cory Gearrin | Braves | -0.19 |
| 188 | Matt Albers | Indians | -0.19 |
| 189 | Ramon Troncoso | White Sox | -0.19 |
| 190 | Jake Dunning | Giants | -0.20 |
| 191 | Brad Brach | Padres | -0.20 |
| 192 | Nick Hagadone | Indians | -0.21 |
| 193 | Jonathan Broxton | Reds | -0.23 |
| 194 | Bryan Morris | Pirates | -0.24 |
| 195 | Mike Adams | Phillies | -0.26 |
| 196 | Blake Beavan | Mariners | -0.26 |
| 197 | Kyle Farnsworth | – – – | -0.26 |
| 198 | A.J. Ramos | Marlins | -0.26 |
| 199 | Evan Scribner | Athletics | -0.27 |
| 200 | Lucas Luetge | Mariners | -0.27 |
| 201 | Pedro Strop | – – – | -0.27 |
| 202 | David Hernandez | Diamondbacks | -0.29 |
| 203 | Vinnie Pestano | Indians | -0.30 |
| 204 | Greg Burke | Mets | -0.30 |
| 205 | Brad Lincoln | Blue Jays | -0.30 |
| 206 | Garrett Richards | Angels | -0.30 |
| 207 | George Kontos | Giants | -0.31 |
| 208 | Justin De Fratus | Phillies | -0.31 |
| 209 | Marc Rzepczynski | – – – | -0.32 |
| 210 | Donnie Veal | White Sox | -0.32 |
| 211 | Michael Bowden | Cubs | -0.33 |
| 212 | Zach Duke | – – – | -0.33 |
| 213 | Paul Clemens | Astros | -0.36 |
| 214 | T.J. McFarland | Orioles | -0.36 |
| 215 | Michael Gonzalez | Brewers | -0.37 |
| 216 | Adam Warren | Yankees | -0.38 |
| 217 | Clayton Mortensen | Red Sox | -0.41 |
| 218 | Esmil Rogers | Blue Jays | -0.42 |
| 219 | John Axford | – – – | -0.42 |
| 220 | Al Alburquerque | Tigers | -0.43 |
| 221 | Travis Blackley | Astros | -0.44 |
| 222 | Alex Wilson | Red Sox | -0.45 |
| 223 | Scott Atchison | Mets | -0.46 |
| 224 | Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | -0.48 |
| 225 | Brandon Lyon | Mets | -0.48 |
| 226 | Brandon Maurer | Mariners | -0.51 |
| 227 | Ryan Mattheus | Nationals | -0.53 |
| 228 | Bruce Chen | Royals | -0.54 |
| 229 | Carlos Marmol | – – – | -0.58 |
| 230 | Jose Cisnero | Astros | -0.58 |
| 231 | Jeremy Horst | Phillies | -0.59 |
| 232 | Hector Ambriz | Astros | -0.62 |
| 233 | Ian Krol | Nationals | -0.63 |
| 234 | Dallas Keuchel | Astros | -0.63 |
| 235 | Jeremy Affeldt | Giants | -0.64 |
| 236 | Henry Rodriguez | – – – | -0.70 |
| 237 | Michael Kirkman | Rangers | -0.74 |
| 238 | Hector Rondon | Cubs | -0.74 |
| 239 | Lucas Harrell | Astros | -0.80 |
| 240 | Luis Garcia | Phillies | -0.87 |
| 241 | Brandon League | Dodgers | -0.88 |
| 242 | Anthony Bass | Padres | -0.88 |
| 243 | Shawn Camp | Cubs | -1.03 |
How Was The Game? (September 7, 2013)
Badly timed.
Royals 4, Tigers 3
It looked as if the Tigers were going to wear out the Royals on this night, but after only cashing in once in the first they allowed the Royals to get back into the game. Justin Verlander (30 GS, 192.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 4.1 WAR) did good work for the majority of the game and made just one very critical mistake to Sal Perez in the bottom of the sixth that ended up in the left field seats. Verlander’s secondary pitches were good and he had plenty of velocity, touching 99 and averaging 96 across 7 innings of 4 run baseball that featured 7 K and 1 BB. The Tigers had some chances but only added single runs in the 5th and 7th to fall shot of the comeback. The Tigers will give the ball to Doug Fister (28 GS, 179.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 4.0 WAR) on Sunday looking to take the series.
The Moment: Nick Castellanos gets his first big league hit on a dribbler to second.
The Nine Pitchers Who Give Up The Most Unearned Runs
Something I’ve always found interesting is that pitchers get to deduct unearned runs from their ERA but they don’t get to deduct runs from their ERA when their defense doesn’t make an easy play that they should have. In the past, I’ve highlighted more advanced ways to demonstrate to measure a pitcher’s value that factors out defense like FIP, xFIP, and others and I’ve also pointed out why this distinction between ERA and Runs Allowed/9 is a little bit arbitrary.
Below, for no other reason than to think about something we almost never think about, are the pitchers who have allowed the most unearned runs in 2013 and the pitchers who have allowed the highest percentage of their runs in an unearned run fashion (min 50 IP).
| Rank | Name | Team | UER | UER% | ERA | IP | R | ER |
| 9 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 10 | 16.13% | 2.85 | 164 | 62 | 52 |
| 8 | Hector Santiago | White Sox | 10 | 16.39% | 3.43 | 133.2 | 61 | 51 |
| 7 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 10 | 11.90% | 3.59 | 185.2 | 84 | 74 |
| 6 | Ryan Dempster | Red Sox | 10 | 10.64% | 4.79 | 157.2 | 94 | 84 |
| 5 | Lucas Harrell | Astros | 11 | 11.22% | 5.69 | 137.2 | 98 | 87 |
| 4 | C.J. Wilson | Angels | 12 | 14.63% | 3.42 | 184 | 82 | 70 |
| 3 | Jeremy Hefner | Mets | 12 | 16.00% | 4.34 | 130.2 | 75 | 63 |
| 2 | Edwin Jackson | Cubs | 13 | 13.27% | 4.91 | 155.2 | 98 | 85 |
| 1 | Wily Peralta | Brewers | 17 | 17.00% | 4.51 | 165.2 | 100 | 83 |
| Rank | Name | Team | UER | UER% | ERA | IP | R | ER |
| 9 | Rex Brothers | Rockies | 3 | 20.00% | 1.81 | 59.2 | 15 | 12 |
| 8 | Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 5 | 20.00% | 3.16 | 57 | 25 | 20 |
| 7 | Stephen Fife | Dodgers | 4 | 21.05% | 2.55 | 53 | 19 | 15 |
| 6 | Tanner Scheppers | Rangers | 4 | 22.22% | 2.04 | 61.2 | 18 | 14 |
| 5 | Taylor Jordan | Nationals | 6 | 22.22% | 3.66 | 51.2 | 27 | 21 |
| 4 | Burke Badenhop | Brewers | 7 | 22.58% | 3.62 | 59.2 | 31 | 24 |
| 3 | Charlie Morton | Pirates | 9 | 23.08% | 3.00 | 90 | 39 | 30 |
| 2 | Craig Breslow | Red Sox | 4 | 25.00% | 2.12 | 51 | 16 | 12 |
| 1 | Bobby Parnell | Mets | 5 | 29.41% | 2.16 | 50 | 17 | 12 |
I think it’s important to think about this because we all agree that a pitcher isn’t responsible for every run he allows, but he also isn’t without blame for all of them either. Earned and unearned runs are the traditional line we draw, but there is nothing that meaningful about such a boundary. These runs count against the team and plenty of unearned runs aren’t the pitcher’s fault.
Food for thought.
How Was The Game? (September 6, 2013)
A meaningful response.
Tigers 16, Royals 2
Just two days after absorbing a 16 run defeat at the hands of the Red Sox, the Tigers turned around and took their frustration out on the Royals in a big way. Anibal Sanchez (25 GS, 159 IP, 2.60 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 5.3 WAR) was quite good, but didn’t really have to be, finishing with 7 innings of 1 run baseball and 5 Ks and 1 BB. He touched 97 and breezed through while his offense made the Royals wish they hadn’t gotten out of bed in the morning. They got 5 in the 2nd, 5 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 2 in the 7th, and 1 in the 9th to finish this one early and often. Jackson, Fielder, and Avila had 3 hits. Hunter and Martinez had 2. Dirks had 5. Infante had 5. It was hard to keep track. Everyone was hitting. A lot. And this wasn’t death by a million paper cuts, it was good, solid contact that erased the terrible damage they did to their run differential on Wednesday. Despite the dominance, it counts for just one game in the standings, locking in the Tigers 82nd win and setting them up to take the series with Justin Verlander (29 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.9 WAR) taking the hill.
The Moment: The TIgers score 16 runs. How can you choose just one?
Which Relievers Should The Tigers Take To October?
With just three weeks and change standing between the Tigers and postseason baseball for the third straight October, it’s time to start thinking about using the home stretch to make some tough choices. Specifically, the Tigers need to address Jhonny Peralta’s status with the club and which relievers are coming and which relievers are staying home. I’ll leave the Peralta question for another day and tackle the relievers right now.
Let’s start with some basic assumptions. The Tigers are going to carry 11 pitchers and 5 will be the members of their starting rotation, even if one or more of them will pitch out of the bullpen. So that leaves us with 6 slots.
The No Brainers
Joaquin Benoit, Jose Veras, Drew Smyly, and Bruce Rondon are all locks barring a serious injury or some sort of terrible meltdown.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Drew Smyly | 53 | 69 | 9.26 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 2.22 | 2.43 | 3.04 | 1.5 |
| Joaquin Benoit | 55 | 55 | 9.82 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 2.13 | 2.89 | 3.23 | 1.1 |
| Jose Veras* | 58 | 58.1 | 8.18 | 3.09 | 0.93 | 2.93 | 3.74 | 3.99 | 0.6 |
| Bruce Rondon | 29 | 27.2 | 8.78 | 3.58 | 0.65 | 3.58 | 3.22 | 3.43 | 0.3 |
*with both the Tigers and Astros in 2013
Using New English D’s own propriety metric, SOEFA, each of these four grade out as above average relievers for the season with Benoit and Smyly being among the best dozen in the game as of last Sunday.
| Player | SOEFA |
| Joaquin Benoit | 0.79 |
| Drew Smyly | 0.76 |
| Jose Veras | 0.15 |
| Bruce Rondon | 0.02 |
The Question Marks
We know whomever the Tigers call on has to currently be in the organization and we also know that Octavio Dotel is likely out for the season. That leaves the Tigers with 7 relievers who saw big league action this year. These numbers are in relief and as Tigers.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Darin Downs | 26 | 33 | 10.09 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 5.18 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 0.3 |
| Phil Coke | 45 | 36.2 | 7.36 | 3.93 | 0.74 | 4.91 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 0.2 |
| Luke Putkonen | 23 | 23.1 | 8.10 | 2.70 | 1.16 | 2.70 | 3.81 | 3.62 | 0.1 |
| Evan Reed | 13 | 19.1 | 6.52 | 1.86 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 0.1 |
| Al Alburquerque | 44 | 40.1 | 13.17 | 6.92 | 1.12 | 5.58 | 4.18 | 3.59 | 0.0 |
| Jose Alvarez | 3 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 15.75 | 5.79 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 10 | 15.1 | 8.22 | 5.87 | 1.76 | 5.28 | 5.71 | 4.61 | -0.2 |
Downs pitched well for the Tigers earlier this year before struggling and then missing time with a shoulder injury. He wasn’t added to the roster when the limit went from 25 to 40, which signals that the Tigers don’t plan to use him in October. That could change, but it’s possible too that he hasn’t fully recovered from his injury. If Downs is healthy, he’d be an obvious choice for me as he did excellent work until the last couple outings before going on the DL and has an excellent strikeout rate and no serious platoon issues.
Coke struggled with command this season and has become a LOOGY for the most part since returning from Toledo. Last month, I looked into his struggles and didn’t find anything stuff or health related to worry about. Coke seems like an obvious choice if Downs isn’t an option because the Tigers are going to want to carry at least 2 lefties.
Jose Alvarez won’t be needed for his length and it’s hard to think he’s a better LOOGY than Coke at this point. He’s a touch and feel guy who can give you innings, which isn’t that valuable in the postseason.
Luke Putkonen has a solid fastball and some pretty good numbers to match working in long relief (for the most part) this year as he bounced up and down as necessary. Putkonen would be a good fit in principle, but with Porcello likely heading to the bullpen for the playoffs, the value of a guy who can offer length is somewhat diminished. Putkonen is certainly a candidate, but it’s a tough call.
Evan Reed hasn’t spent much time in the show this year, but he’s done solid work during his stints with the big club. There isn’t much to go on with Reed, but he doesn’t really seem to have anything that distinguishes him from Putkonen in terms of what he could bring to the roster.
Jeremy Bonderman is an interesting one because the overall results haven’t been great this year, but he’s show the ability to come in and slam the door at times this year. September will be key for evaluating Bonderman because I’m not sure if he’s capable of being a shutdown middle reliever or not. That might have been a flash in the pan, but I always thought his stuff would play up in the pen.
Al Alburquerque is going to be the key. His strikeout rate is nuts and if you need a big strikeout he’s a guy you want to be able to call upon. But he’s also extremely wild and might walk in the key run as well. He’s been hit hard lately and the overall results package hasn’t been great. He has a high payoff potential, but you’re also scared to use him to some extent with too much on the line. He might punish hitters with his slider or he might get creamed.
Which leaves us with a tough choice. It’s hard to imagine Coke, who had so much success last October and remains the best LOOGY option, doesn’t get invited to the dance. Unless he lays a big egg in the final days, he’s going to join the four-headed monster – even if I would prefer a healthy Downs.
The last righty is a tough one because of the different dynamic in October. If you need length in the pen, you’re going to use Porcello because you don’t need a guy who “saves the pen,” you need a guy who holds the lead at all costs. So a swingman, mop up type isn’t what you need. If Al-Al in the zone, he’d be in for sure, but he isn’t and a guy like Putkonen could be a safe option. He’s not going to come in and get you a big K the way Al-Al could, but you have Rondon for that and you don’t have to worry about holding back in October. The marathon is over and it’s time to sprint.
It’s tough, but I think you have to try it with Alburquerque. He’s a high risk, high reward pick but he brings a skill to the table that Putkonen, Reed, and Bonderman don’t. Presumably, with all of the off days in October and the finish line in sight, you can pitch with a short pen if Al-Al loses it and can’t be trusted. But if he hits one of his grooves, the benefits will be huge.
New English D 