The Morning Edition (May 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Indians homer their way to a win over the A’s
- Shields throws 8 scoreless, but his offense fails him as the the White Sox win in 11
- Simmons homers twice as the Braves beat the Reds 7-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Medlen and Bailey bring identical 3.38 ERAs to GABP (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces baseball’s second worse offense, the White Sox, at Citi (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy and Beckett face off in a battle of erstwhile stars (10p Eastern)
- And don’t forget Sanchez vs Zimmermann in DC! (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Harvey respond coming off his first short outing?
Don’t look now, but 20 year old 3B Manny Machado is doing a Trout and Harper impression and has placed himself 4th on the WAR leaderboard (1.7). Machado is hitting .309/.352/.522 for a 135 wRC+ to go with his sterling 6.9 UZR/6 DRS. He’s playing gold glove defense at third and he’s hitting like a star. We’ve talked a lot about how Harper and Trout are generational talents and they’ve spoiled us for other young players, but Mr. Machado isn’t so sure he’s ready to give up so soon. As I write this, just one AL position player has a higher WAR. Perhaps you’ve heard of him: Miguel Cabrera.
The Morning Edition (May 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Darvish K’s 14 Red Sox as the Rangers win in the bottom of the 9th
- The Marlins shell Halladay and get a clean outing from Slowey in a 14-2 win
- Garcia goes 8 and allows 1 run in front of a huge offensive outburst for the Cards
- Gordon’s walk-off single leads the Royals over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale and Shields duel in KC (2p Eastern)
- Buchholz welcomes the Twins to town in search of his 7th win (7p Eastern)
- Lefties Lee and Bumgarner face off on the left coast (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this the end for Doc?
When the season began, I left Roy Halladay off my list of The Nine best NL starters for 2013, but did so with great reservations. Sure Halladay was coming of a rough, injury plagued 2012, but the guy was easily the best and most consistent pitcher of the previous ten seasons, so I didn’t want to write him off too quickly. He opened the season with two rough outings against the Braves and Mets, but then got back on track for three against the Marlins, Cardinals, and Pirates before blowing a gasket against the Indians and Marlins. After the most recent start, he finally admitted to shoulder pain and will see Dr. Yocum this week. He’s likely headed for the DL and will likely never be the brilliant ace he once was. From 2002-2011, Halladay was the best pitcher in the sport and it wasn’t close. Not even a little bit. His 60.9 WAR during the time frame was first ahead of Sabathia by 9.6 WAR despite making 19 fewer starts. Only one starter with more than 1000 IP in the same time frame had a lower ERA: Johan Santana and he threw 400 fewer innings. As of now, he’s 33rd all time in pitcher WAR. He doesn’t have some of the counting stats one likes to see to make the Hall of Fame, but his peak is extremely solid. He has my vote if he never throws another pitch, and it’s not entirely certain that he ever will.
How Was The Game? (May 5, 2013)
Almost.
Tigers 9, Astros 0
It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which the Tigers jumped out to a big early lead behind four homeruns and completed a four game sweep that pushed their record to 9-1 in their last 10 and 19-11 on the season that we would feel slightly unfulfilled. That lack of fulfillment comes at the faunt of Justin Verlander (4-2, 46.1 IP, 1.55 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.0 WAR) who taunted us again with his brilliance and held the Astros hitless through 6.1 inning before allowing a single to erstwhile Tiger Carlos Pena. Just four major league pitchers have thrown 3 no-hitters in the modern era and Verlander was making yet another run to join that club. In failing to do so, he still managed to throw 7 shutout innings and struck out 9 Astros. His pitch count was slightly elevated all afternoon, but the uncomfortable moments for Leyland were avoided as Verlander allowed a hit before he crosses into 120+ pitch territory. The Tigers will take tomorrow off to bask in their victorious weekend and will head to DC to face the Nats behind Anibal Sanchez (3-2. 39.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 1.31 FIP, 2.0 WAR) on Tuesday.
The Moment: Verlander takes a no-hiiter into the 7th inning.
The Morning Edition (May 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Lorenzo Cain drives in 2 in the first to back Guthrie’s CGSO against the White Sox
- Jose Fernandez allows 1 hit in 7 innings while striking out 9 Phillies in his first ML win
- Strasburg gives up 2 homeruns in 7 innings, but the Nats score 1 in the top of the 9th to outlast the Bucs
- Wainwright struggles for the first time (5 ER in 5.1 IP), but the Cards deliver in the 9th to win
- Dickey gets lit up by the Mariners, Blue Jays fall 8-1
- Hughes throws 8 scoreless as the Yanks top the A’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Hudson tries to an encore to his 200th win against Niese and the Mets (1p Eastern)
- Halladay looks to straighten out again against the Marlins (230p Eastern)
- Jon Lester. Yu Darvish. Arlington, Texas. (3p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb takes his hot start to Coors Field (4p Eastern)
- Strikeout happy Ryu gets struggling ace Matt Cain at AT&T (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- On a day in which Strasburg and Wainwright were on the mound, how did Guthrie, Fernandez, and Hughes headline the night? (Well, Scherzer did his part!)
R.A. Dickey…what’s going on? I certainly expected some regression from the 2012 peak in moving to the AL and a hitter friendly park, but this is pretty serious so far. We’re not deep enough into the season to totally dismiss a small sample size issue, but it’s getting to the point where it just doesn’t look like he’s going to pitch at or around ace levels for the foreseeable future. He’s 2-5 in 7 starts over 42 IP with a 7.07 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9 to go with a 5.36 ERA and 5.19 FIP. Granted, FIP isn’t a great judge of knuckleballers, but the other numbers don’t exactly hearten Blue Jays fans or Dickey fantasy owners (the present author included). If you go back to the much more reasonable 2010-2011 seasons, Dickey’s numbers this year don’t match those either. His strikeouts are up, but his walks are too. His ERA is way up, but his groundball rate is down considerably. That’s the item on the list that catches my attention the most. I haven’t watch Dickey enough to know, but I’m curious if this is the league figuring him out. Maybe he’s not much different and hitters are just getting smarter. I’m not sure, and I know there is some injury talk, but either way, the Mets are starting to look like even better for the offseason deal. The Jays can still turn it around if Dickey finds his groove, but I’m starting to wonder if he will.
How Was The Game? (May 4, 2013)
Just a domination.
Tigers 17, Astros 2
To give you an indication of how this one played out, Jim Leyland pulled both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the late innings and the Tigers scored 5 more runs after they left the game. It was a thorough annihilation the likes of which we haven’t seen yet this year. The Tigers jumped out to a 4-0 lead before Scherzer threw a pitch and added runs in every inning except the 3rd. Jackson, Hunter, Martinez, Peralta, Avila, and Infante all had multi-hit games, but Cabrera (.390/.467/.627, 196 wRC+, 1.7 WAR) stood out at the plate with 4 hits, 2 massive homeruns, and 6 runs batted in and added a dandy diving play in the field for good measure. The Tigers finally treated the Astros pitchers like the Astros and Max Scherzer (4-0, 39.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 1.6 WAR) treated the Astros hitters the same way. The offense may have stolen your attention, but he was not to be outdone. He went 8 innings and allowed just a single run while striking out 8, walking 2 and allowing 3 hits.. With the win, the Tigers take the series and improve to 18-11 on the season and will go for the sweep tomorrow behind Justin Verlander (3-2, 39.1 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 1.6 WAR).
The Moment: Cabrera crushes a 2nd inning homerun to extend the lead early.
The Nine Most Average Hitters of the Last Decade
Have you ever sat back and thought about being typical? Average? Middle of the road? Chances are you haven’t, but don’t worry, that’s where I come in. I answer questions you never knew you had and I’m about to do it again.
Have you ever wondered who the most average players are? We talk a lot about league average when we talk about statistics, but we don’t often provide illustrative examples. So let’s do that.
Below are a list of the most average MLB players over the last decade (2004-present) as defined by wRC+. There were 10-20 players who have posted a 100 wRC+ during that time period, so to make The Nine list, you have to have a 100 wRC+ since 2004 and then you have to have the most plate appearances doing so (as of 5/3/2013).
9. Ian Desmond (1964 PA)
8. Mike Jacobs (2140)
7. Marcus Giles (2190)
6. Brad Wilkerson (2412)
5. Xavier Nady (2794)
4. Mark Loretta (2885)
3. Coco Crisp (4397)
2. Aaron Hill (4494)
1. Alex Rios (5449)
Normally I write a blurb about each of the items on our The Nine lists, but I’d like to consider this one as a group because it’s more interesting to me. Notice the groupings. Players ranked 5-9 all have between 3 and 5 seasons of plate appearances during this window. They were league average over a span of 3-5 years during a sample of about 10. Crisp and Hill have 7 seasons. Rios has 9. So while these guys are all average by our best single offensive metric, Alex Rios is super average in that he produced average offense over a really long period of time. Let’s look at his career a little bit.
While Rios has been average on average, he has actually never been average in any one season. His most average season was 2008 in which he posted a 108 wRC+. What is kind of amazing is that none of the other guys on this list display a pattern much different from Rios. They vary in the degree to which they deviate from the 100 wRC+ line, but they all deviate a great deal. I haven’t taken the time to go searching for baseball’s most consistently average player, but I will someday. For now, Rios gets the title of baseball’s most average hitter over the last decade, but man, he’s done it in atypical fashion.
The Morning Edition (May 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holliday and Beltran homer behind a smooth performance by Shelby Miller
- Derek Holland dominates the Red Sox enroute to a 7-0 win
- David Wright homers off Kimbrel to send it to extras where the Mets win 7-5
- Felix Hernandez throws 8 shutout innings in Toronto
- AJ Burnett sharp again in 3-2 win over the Nats
- Kershaw flirts with a no-hitter, but loses it in the 6th ahead of a Posey walk-off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright takes the Cardinals north to face the Crew (4p Eastern)
- Strasburg faces the Pirates in his first start since experiencing forearm tightness (4p Eastern)
- Patrick Corbin and his 1.91 ERA head to SD to face the Padres (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which pitching performance did you most enjoy on Friday?
It probably wouldn’t surprise the astute fan that Carlos Santana is crushing the baseball right now. His .383/.468/.679 line produces a 215 wRC+. That’s pretty awesome. To give you a sense of how good that is, Babe Ruth only had a wRC+ higher than 215 four times and his career wRC+ is 197. Probably not sustainable, but damn impressive as he is a 130 wRC+ career hitter. Man, the Indians can hit. They’d be good if their rotation wasn’t terrible.
How Was The Game? (May 3, 2013)
Late blooming.
Tigers 4, Astros 3
The Tigers jumped out to an early lead in this one, scoring single runs in the 2nd and 4th to take a 2-0 lead, but the Astros came back and got to Doug Fister (4-0, 40 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.1 WAR) for 3 runs (2 earned) in a very strange 7th inning that featured scoring plays on an error and a peculiar infield hit. Otherwise, Fister was strong, striking out 4 and walking 1 in 6+ innings of work. Norris limited the Tigers on the other side and Smyly (2-0, 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.67 FIP, 0.7 WAR) shut down the Astros in relief of Fister in the 7th and 8th. It was uneventful as far as close games go aside from an iffy homerun review in the 4th inning, until Alex Avila strode to the plate in the 9th inning with the team down a run with Don Kelly standing on first. He worked the count to 3-0 and then took a strike before smashing the 3-1 pitch over the left centerfield fence for a much needed go-ahead homerun (Avila has 4 HR this year but only a 56 wRC+). The win improves the Tigers to 17-11 on the season and 2-0 on the roadtrip and they’ll be back at it tomorrow behind strikeout artist Max Scherzer (3-0, 31.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 1.4 WAR) trying to lock in a series win.
The Moment: Avila knocks a go-ahead 2 run homer in the 9th.
The Morning Edition (May 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Haren cruises through 8 to lead the Nats over the Braves 3-1
- Brewers try to rally back from a 6-0 deficit and come up short against the Cards
- Kendrick stays solid to push the Phils past the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller and Kyle Lohse do battle in the beer city (8p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw on the hill against the Giants (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe who leads the league in WAR?
The answer is Carlos Gomez who is trying to sustain a breakout campaign with a .372/.427/.638 line, good for 198 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR thanks to a 3.2 UZR. A good amount of the success is BABIP driven, but it’s still pretty impressive. How impressive? He’s only ever posted more than 2.0 WAR in a full season twice. It took him 26 games to do it in 2013.
How Was The Game? (May 2, 2013)
Late, but worth the wait.
Tigers 7, Astros 3
The Tigers traveled to Houston today to play an AL team for the first time and the small number of fans (16,000) who attended were treated to a close game. Rick Porcello (1-2, 26.1 IP, 7.18 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 0.1 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 solid innings, surrendering 3 runs on two homers while striking out 7 and walking none, while also allowing just 5 hits. He wouldn’t factor in the decision as he left the game down 3-2 before Martinez drove in Fielder in the 8th inning to tie the game at 3. Ortega, Benoit, and Putkonen held the Astros at bay while the Tigers threatened but didn’t score in innings 9 through 13, which set up an Austin Jackson lead off double in the 14th which begat two intentional walks followed by a go -ahead single by Don Kelly to make it 4-3 and a Matt Tuiasosopo double to make it 6-3 and a Jhonny Peralta sac fly to make it 7-3 and put the game out of reach. With the victory the Tigers improve to 16-11 on the season and have now won 7 of their last 9, not to mention their impressive 2-0 record in 14 inning games. They’ll be back at it later today behind Doug Fister (4-0, 34 IP, 2.38 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 0.9 WAR) in search of their 17th win.
The Moment: Kelly drives in Jackson to give the Tigers the lead in the 14th.
New English D 