The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
How Was The Game? (April 28, 2013)
Awesome.
Tigers 8, Braves 3
The Tigers took the field Sunday knowing they had already taken the series against the Braves, but didn’t leave their brooms at home. Doug Fister got the strikeout working early and often and finished with 8 K’s in 7 innings, while allowing 3 runs, all of which came in one awkward inning. The bats delivered for Fister as Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera both smacked 3 run homeruns in the 3rd and 7th inning, respectively. Infante also provided a solo homerun and Martinez added a sac fly to round out the score. Alburquerque pitched a scoreless 8th, but put the first two men on in the 9th and Valverde was called on to get the final three outs in the 9th. The Tigers have now won three straight and four of their last five, sending them to 13-10 on the season as they welcome the Twins in for three starting tomorrow behind Max Scherzer (2-0, 24 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 1.1 WAR).
The Moment: Jackson slams a three run bomb to left center in the 3rd.
The Morning Edition (April 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Giancarlo Stanton hits his first HR of the season, but the Fish fall to the Cubs 3-2
- Westbrook throws 6 scoreless innings, but the bullpen gives it away to the Pirates
- Harper homers as the Nats back Dan Haren in a 6-3 win over the Reds
- Matt Moore strikes out 9 in 6 innings as the Rays been the White Sox 10-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dickey tries to find Cy Young form in the Bronx (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Niese hook up in a battle of NL East lefties (1p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller tries to keep the rookie magic alive against the Bucs (2p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces the Padres (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Stanton’s big homerun enough to silence the worriers? (Mostly fantasy owners, because the Marlins don’t really have fans anymore)
As I write this, the two highest position players on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Upton and Shin Shoo Choo. I’ve written about both in this space previously, but the point I’d like to make today is that both were traded this offseason and both trades involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, we know the Dbacks dealt Upton to the Braves in a package deal that saw Martin Prado as the key return. They also played a role in the Choo deal, as they sent Bauer to Cleveland and got Gregorious from the Reds (via Choo). I’m not sure how long it would take me to verify this, but I can’t imagine that the two best players in the league in a given season had ever been involved in trades made by the same team during the previous winter. Now this doesn’t mean the Dbacks won’t make the playoffs, but I would have to imagine they would have a better shot if they have Upton and/or Choo right now. I mean, Parra is a very good outfielder, but he only has a spot in the lineup because of injuries to Eaton, Ross, and Kubel so far. The Diamondbacks might not understand outfielders.
The Nine Best Aprils of the Last 10 Years
With April 2013 winding down and players such as Adam Wainwright and Justin Upton producing at very high levels, I thought it might be fun to revisit some of the best Aprils in recent memory. A few notes to start. First, March numbers are included for the few years that included 1-2 games in March because it’s simply too difficult to separate out that data and let’s face it, it’s pretty much the same thing. Second, I’ve determined these ranks by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) because it’s the easiest way to boil players down to one number who play different positions during different seasons. One shouldn’t treat this as a precise measure, but it’s the best we can do without inundating ourselves with information. Third, I haven’t included 2013 because it isn’t over yet and this is meant for you to compare this year’s performers with those performances past. For the years 2003-2012, The Nine Best Aprils follow.
9. Ryan Braun, 2011 (2.0 WAR)
Braun opened his MVP campaign in style with 26 games in April 2011. He hit 10 HR and posted a .367/.457/.724 line, good for a .496 wOBA and 220 wRC+. He would wind up hitting 33 HR over the course of the season with a 173 wRC+ and 7.3 WAR.
8. Alex Rodriguez, 2007 (2.1 WAR)
A-Rod, too, won the MVP in 2007 after a great April. He hit 14 HR and hit .355/.415/.882 to go with his .521 wOBA and 226 wRC+ during the first month and ended the year with 54 HR, a wRC+ of 175 and 9.6 WAR.
7. Alex Rodriguez, 2003 (2.1 WAR)
No this isn’t a typo and yes, Alex Rodriguez posted two separate 2.1 WAR in April in two separate MVP seasons in the last ten seasons. In this particular season, he hit 9 HR and posted a .355/.444/.673 slash line which produced a .472 wOBA and 188 wRC+. His season totals for 2003 were also impressive, with 47 HR, a .298/.396/.600 line, a 151 wRC+, and 9.1 WAR.
6. Matt Kemp, 2012 (2.2 WAR)
Just last year, Matt Kemp turned in an elite opening month by hitting 12 HR and delivering a .417/.490/.893 slash line to go with his .566 wOBA and 270 wRC+. Unfortunately for Kemp, injuries would shorten his season to 106 games and while he hit 23 HR and posted a .303/.367/.538 line, it would only be good for 3.2 WAR due to limited playing time.
5. Brian Roberts, 2005 (2.3 WAR)
Once upon a time, Roberts played an entire month of baseball without getting hurt. In April 2005, he hit 8 HR and stole 10 bases while posting a .379/.459/.726 line and a .496 wOBA and 214 wRC+. Roberts played well the rest of the season, and hit 18 HR and stole 27 bases to go with 140 wRC+ and a 9.4 UZR, but his 6.6 WAR wouldn’t be good enough to get him the MVP award that others on this list had coming.
4. Jose Bautista, 2011 (2.3 WAR)
2011 wouldn’t be an MVP year for Joey Bats, but his 9 HR in April and .366/.532/.780 line, wOBA of .541, and wRC+ of 249 would be good enough to put him on the path to a third place finish behind Justin Verlander and Jacoby Ellsbury. Bautista would finish the year with 43 HR, 182 wRC+, and 7.8 WAR. Nothing at which to sneeze.
3. Albert Pujols, 2006 (2.4 WAR)
Pujols delivered a superb April in 2006 enroute to a World Series win and 2nd place MVP finish. He hit 14 HR and .346/.509/.914 with a .548 wOBA and 240 wRC+. He’d finish the year with 8.2 WAR, 49 HR and a wRC+ of 174, but the voters wouldn’t ignore Ryan Howard’s 58 bombs.
2. Chase Utley, 2008 (2.5 WAR)
Howard’s teammate comes next on the list as Chase Utley posted great April 2008. His 11 HR, .360/.430/.766 line look awesome night to his .491 wOBA and 202 wRC+. He’d finish with 33 HR, 134 wRC+, and a 19.5 UZR, good for 8.0 WAR, but Pujols (who had a nice April 2008) beat him out for MVP. That doesn’t bother me much, as Pujols had a slightly better season. What does bother me, however, is that Utley somehow finished 14th despite having the second highest WAR.
1. Barry Bonds, 2004 (2.8 WAR)
Well you knew this was coming. 2004 would be Bonds’ final MVP season and he (and maybe some chemicals) certainly earned it. In April he hit 10 HR and posted an insane .472/.696/1.132 line to go with an otherworldly .673 wOBA and 322 wRC+. No one else is even the same conversation. He would conclude that season with 43 HR and a 233 wRC+ and 11.6 WAR.
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It’s probably worth noting that the only one on this list who didn’t have a fantastic season was Matt Kemp, who simply got hurt. So if you have a 2.0 WAR type April, you’re probably in line for an awesome season. You have a great shot at an MVP award, too. Mr. Upton and Mr. Wainwright, things look good.
How Was The Game? (April 27, 2013)
A nice bounce back for Porcello.
Tigers 7, Braves 4
The Tigers came into today’s game on a high note thanks to a 10-0 win on Friday, but the starting pitcher, Rick Porcello was coming off his worst performance by results of his career. The Tigers would provide him with 7 runs thanks in part to homeruns by Peralta and Infante and Porcello wouldn’t need more. His only issue came in the 3rd inning when he allowed 3 runs, but none of the balls were hit hard and three batters reached via infield groundballs. His only real mistake was a bases loaded walk to Dan Uggla. Aside from the 3rd inning, Porcello allowed just one hit over his 6.1 innings of work while striking out 5 and using his changeup more effectively than I can ever remember. Smyly finished the 7th with two strikeouts and Benoit got three outs in the 8th despite allowing a Justin Upton homerun. Leyland called for Valverde in the 9th for his second appearance of the season and he retired the Braves in order. With the win, the Tigers improve to 12-10 on the season and set themselves up to go for a sweep of the Braves on Sunday night behind Doug Fister (27 IP, 3-0, 2.00 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.5 WAR).
The Moment: Infante delivers a 2-out homer in the 4th to put the Tigers ahead for good.
The Morning Edition (April 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Normally we don’t talk Tigers here, but check out Anibal Sanchez striking out 17 Braves in a 10-0 win
- Jordan Zimmermann twirls a CGSO against the Reds in a 1-0 win (91 pitches, 1 hit)
- Kyle Kendrick also delivers a CGSO in a 4-0 win over the Mets
- Rizzo delivers 2 homeruns in a 4-3 win over the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lefties face off in New York as Sabathia and Happ duel (4p Eastern)
- Under-the-radar standouts, Burnett and Garcia, battle in St. Louis (4p Eastern)
- Must-see Matt Moore faces the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez takes the hill (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which great performance was your favorite, Sanchez, Zimmermann, or Kendrick?
Friday was a fun night if you like pitching. You can read about Anibal Sanchez’s 17 strikeout night here, but Zimmermann and Kendrick delivered excellent performances as well. Sorry, Kendrick, but yours was the least interesting. Sanchez went 8 and struckout 17 and Zimmermann went 9 and only needed 91 pitches. Textbook examples of two kinds of domination. Sanchez overpowered and went with strikeouts and Zimmermann just induced easy out after easy out. If you have the time, go watch the highlights and enjoy. Man, great pitching is fun. Sorry to Rizzo, Encarnacion, and Beltran, but multi-homer games don’t measure up.
How Was The Game? (April 26, 2013)
A good old fashion whooping.
Tigers 10, Braves 0
Many, if not all, baseball observers would likely tell you that the Atlanta Braves have been the best team in baseball over the first four weeks of the 2013 season. The Tigers did not seem to care on Friday night as they opened their interleague series against the Braves by destroying them. Not only did the Tigers score 10 runs, but they did so against one of the best rotations in the league and one of the hottest starting pitchers in Paul Maholm. If that wasn’t enough, Anibal Sanchez violated the Braves hitters by striking out 17 in 8 innings while walking just 1 and allowing 5 hits and no runs. Those 17 strikeouts are a Tigers franchise record for a pitcher in a 9 inning game. Put another way, the Tigers had their best offensive output in the same game that they received their best pitching performance, all while playing the league’s best team. All in all, that’s a good day at the office as they improve to 11-10. Sanchez’s line earns him a remarkable -0.88 FIP for the day and lowers his season ERA and FIP to 1.34 and 1.36, respectively. By WAR, he’s now tied for 2nd best for a pitcher in the majors this season with Yu Darvish (1.7) thanks to a 10.96 K/9 and 1.13 BB/9. The Tigers will look to take the series behind Porcello tomorrow afternoon against Kris Medlen.
The Moment: Anibal Sanchez delivers his 17th strikeout to set a career and franchise record.
The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
How Was The Game? (April 25, 2013)
Great, until the bullpen showed up.
Royals, 8, Tigers 3
Two of the better starters in the AL over the last couple of seasons hooked up for a matinee on Thursday at Comerica Park and did a fairly good job limiting the offensive output. Verlander surrendered 2 runs over 7 innings and Shields held the Tigers to 3 over 8. After Verlander left the game with “cracked skin” on his thumb (which has to be the lamest injury you can have!), Leyland called for the rookie Bruce Rondon, who surrendered the tying run in the 8th inning. Rondon wasn’t particularly ineffective in his MLB debut, but he wasn’t brilliant and the Tigers would need to deliver a walk off win to overcome his appearance and they would need it to come in extra innings after Collins retired them in order in the 9th. Unfortunately, Phil Coke had other ideas and melted down in the top of the 10th allowing a double, walk, wild pitch, intentional walk, and another walk to give up the lead with just one out. He left the bases loaded for Darin Downs who allowed a grand slam before getting out of the inning with the score 8-3. The loss drops the Tigers to 10-10 on the season with the Braves coming to town for a weekend set starting tomorrow. It will be Maholm and Sanchez for game one.
The Moment: Gordon puts it out of reach with a bomb to dead center.
Yu Darvish and the Most Incredible .GIF
This site is devoted primarily to the Detroit Tigers and secondarily to baseball as a whole, and this post will concern the latter. It will be very short and direct.
A gentleman in the comments section of the Rangers blog Lone Star Ball created this masterpiece that features Yu Darvish throwing each of his pitches at one time. The creator is Drew Shepherd and he has done superb work. Go watch it.
New English D 