The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
The Morning Edition (May 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Pagan hits a walk off inside the park homerun against the Rockies
- Peavy goes the distance as the Sox walk off against Miami
- Gomez homers twice but it’s not enough to beat the Bucs
- Moore is strong against the Yanks but the bullpen blows it in extras
- The Red Sox offense picks up a mediocre Lester against the Tribe
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza against Cueto in Cincinnati (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Strasburg duel in DC (130p Eastern)
- CC and Cobb at the Trop (130p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Padres (4p Eastern)
- SHELBY MILLER VERSUS CLAYTON KERSHAW (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which game most intrigues you today?
The answer to that is obviously Cardinals and Dodgers as it includes two very good starters who are pitching well as of late. Kershaw is a well established Appointment Television starter and Shelby Miller, I can tell you on good authority, is just one good start away from making that list. Kershaw enters the game at 5-2 through 73.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and 2.0 WAR, not to mention a dazzling track record while his opponent, Miller, is 5-3 through 57 innings with a 1.74 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 1.6 WAR to go along with his prospect pedigree. One likely expects a great pitchers’ duel from this one, but as the author learned just last week in the Verlander-Darvish Fiasco of 2013, great pitching matchups sometimes disappoint the viewer who wishes to see nothing but amazing starting pitching. The game not only features two of the authors favorite pitchers to watch, but it takes place after the Tigers game and will be announced by the golden pipes of Vin Scully. Enjoy, world.
The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
The Morning Edition (May 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Angels get 4 HR off former teammate Santana to beat the Royals
- The Indians take out their Tigers frustration on the Red Sox, win 12-3
- Gausman doesn’t impress with results in his debut, falls to the Jays
- The Pirates get to Jackson, win 4-2
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Masterson looks to stay hot against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Danks makes his season debut against the Marlins (8p Eastern)
- Burnett heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to back up two good starts against the Friars (930p)
The Big Question:
- Who would you guess is the worst defensive team in the league?
I’d have said the Astros before I looked it up, but it’s the Angels. The Angels! They’re -37 DRS, -16.1 UZR, -10.3 UZR/150 which are all 30th best in the league. That seems really crazy to me given some of the great defenders they have, but with their overall struggles, some must be leaking into the defensive side. Let’s look. I set the minimum innings to 30 at a position and looked at the leaderboard. Here it is:
I know defensive numbers don’t stabilize this early, but that’s just not what you want to see for a team that should be pretty good on defense.
The Morning Edition (May 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cliff Lee delivers the CGSO against the Marlins
- Wilson strong as the Angels thump the Mariners
- Granderson comes up a 3B short of the cycle, but Kuroda leaves early as the Yanks fall
- Liriano out duels Sharky at PNC
- Bautista homers twice and then hits a walk off extra inning single
- Gio and Bumgarner duel but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Nats
- The Reds make Harvey look human, win in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Only four games on the schedule that don’t involve the Tigers, here are your matchups: Jackson/Gomez, Gausman/Morrow, McAllister/Dempster, Blanton/Santana
- I’d tell you I was watching Gausman, but I can’t because I live in NC and we aren’t legally allowed to watch the Orioles or Nationals play under any circumstances
The Big Question:
- How do you spend rain delays? (I stare off into space until there is something worth watching again.)
I’ve written a good deal about guys near the top of the WAR leaderboard, but I’m going for it again because I noticed something as of this moment: four of the top six players on the list are the guys I consider to be the four best in the game. Longoria (1), Cabrera (2), Votto (3), Trout (6). Trout and Longoria are elite two way players while Cabrera and Votto are the best hitters in their respective leagues. It’s not often that your expectations line up with reality so well, but here we are.
The Morning Edition (May 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Trout hits for the cycle
- Leake strong as the Reds beat the Mets 4-0
- McClouth walks off against the Yanks
- Garza sharp in his season debut, but Snider slams the Cubs pen to give the Bucs the W
- Greinke gets roughed up over 4 innings in Milwaukee
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey versus Latos at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Gio and Bumgarner throw from the left side in SF (330p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is a 4th AL 3B trying to get involved in this race?
Last week I talked about how Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Manny Machado led the AL in WAR, but a new AL 3B has moved into the #4 spot: Josh Donaldson. As I write this, he’s hitting .315/.391/.530 with a 152 wRC+ an 2.1 WAR, which is 9th in MLB. He’s flashed solid potential before, but nothing quite like this. In 300+ previous big league at bats he was a below average walker and above average strikeout guy who didn’t hit for average of power. In the minors he had some reasonable success, but it wasn’t anything spectacular. Now in 2013, he’s crushing. His BABIP (.353) is elevated, but he’s shown a higher BABIP in various minor league stints so it’s not like it is guaranteed to regress dramatically. I left him out of my top 9 3B to start the year and I think I’m sticking with that, but for now, the best 3 players in the AL play 3B and one of them is Josh Donaldson.
The Morning Edition (May 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners blow two saves and the Indians only blow one in a wild one in Cleveland
- Dickey beats Odorizzi north of the border
- Hamels Ks 10 and walks none in a losing effort
- The White Sox get to Lester in Chicago
- Kershaw goes the distance, allows just one run against the Brewers
- Corbin dazzles at Coors with a CG, 10 Ks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza makes his season debut against the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb goes for the Rays in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Darvish welcomes the A’s to Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Wainwright comes to Petco (10p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Cain face off at the bay (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- When do we start to notice Partick Corbin?
As I write this, Patrick Corbin is plowing through the 7th inning in Colorado and hasn’t allowed a run and has surrendered just a single hit (He finished with a CG, 3 H, 1 R, 10 K line). Entering the night, he was 6-0, 53.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR and those numbers are going to get better. Granted, this level isn’t sustainable, but he’s pretty good and is throwing a gem in one of the hardest places to pitch. Also, Clayton Kershaw, just stop it. Another CG tonight.
The Morning Edition (May 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman gives up 2 HR in the 9th to Katz and Galvis and blows it in Philly
- Moore twirls 7 innings of 1 run ball, gets help from a Joyce homerun that was reviewed for 9 minutes to win 3-1
- Locke and Harrell duel to a 1-0 Pirates victory
- Ozuna backs Nolasco’s 11 Ks to take one from Arizona
- The Indians rough up Felix, Masterson Ks 11 in 7 innings for a 6-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Under the radar Iwakuma tries to salvage one in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Odorizzi makes his Rays debut against Dickey and the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Cueto returns versus the Mets (7p Eastern)
- Lester faces the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw comes to Milwaukee after dominating his last time out (8p Eastern)
- Corbin on the mound in Colorado (830p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will you divide up your MLB viewing today?
The Marlins are just above the Tigers 43-119 pace from 2003 and are currently tracking toward 44 wins. Their team slash line is an incredible .221/.284/.317. In 2012, four players hit between .220 and .230 and slugged between .310 and .320. Here’s the list: Peter Bourjos (195 PA), Anthony Gose (189 PA), Jose Lobaton (197 PA), and Carlos Triunfel (24 PA). Put it this way, the Marlins as a team are hitting like four players who couldn’t get 200 PA on another team. The average Miami Marlin couldn’t even platoon in the majors. The 2013 Marlins are worse than Don Kelly’s career line, who has made a career being a defense first 13th man who can play many positions. The Marlins are fielding a team that is below replacement level (-1.6 WAR). That’s happening.
The Morning Edition (May 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Upton slams the Braves past the Dodgers
- Goldschmidt’s 2 bombs back Cahill’s 8 inning gem
- Kuroda blanks the Jays over 8, wins 5-0
- Hellickson gives up 8 runs in 7.2 innings…and gets a win in a 12-10 affair over the O’s
- Kipnis walks off in extras over the M’s
- Phillies bullpen tries to spoil a nice outing by Lee, but the offense bails them out against the Reds
- Harvey twirls 7.2 strong innings and drives in the winning run against the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Quietly strong Zach McAllister faces the Mariners in an attempt to pad his stats (1p Eastern)
- Burnett gets the Astros at home, watch for Ks (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to follow his strong outing against the Marlins 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann faces the Padres at Petco (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do people still take pitcher wins seriously after Hellickson gave up 8 runs and still earned one on Friday?
If I gave you 5 guesses as to who baseball’s best hitter is so far (as of 11:21pm Friday night), would you get it? Miguel Cabrera might be your guess and that’s close, but he’s percentage points behind the leader. Maybe Upton? Or Longoria? Or Choo? All good guesses, but it’s actually Paul Goldschmidt. The Dbacks slugging first baseman has a nice season and a half to his name in the big leagues, but he’s taken a step forward so far this season. His plate discipline is improving and his power is better, while also buoyed by a little good luck. Right now his 185 wRC+ is a fraction of a point ahead of Cabrera and his .338/.421/.656 line is a thing of beauty.
The Morning Edition (May 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman blows Latos’ gem, but the offense bails him out
- Middlebrooks knocks in 3 in the 9th to beat Rodney and the Rays
- The Mets get 4 runs on Wainwright and Niese pitches them to victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Cingrani and Lee hook up in Philly (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz takes on the Twins (8p Eastern)
- Bumgarner takes on Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you guys see Kinsler last night?
It’s happening again. Mike Trout has climbed to 3rd in MLB in Wins Above Replacement (as I write this at 11p 5/16). Some attention was called to his slow start, but here he is on May 16 hitting .291/.365/.545 good for 148 wRC+ and 2.3 WAR. For what it’s worth, in May, he’s hitting .358/.426/.792. I’m feeling better about MVP pick – except for the fact that he’s on a terrible team, so no one will vote for him. And in case it comes up later, he’s .333/.380/.619 with runners in scoring position, not that I’m big on that stat but some people are.
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