The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
The Morning Edition (May 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Angels get 4 HR off former teammate Santana to beat the Royals
- The Indians take out their Tigers frustration on the Red Sox, win 12-3
- Gausman doesn’t impress with results in his debut, falls to the Jays
- The Pirates get to Jackson, win 4-2
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Masterson looks to stay hot against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Danks makes his season debut against the Marlins (8p Eastern)
- Burnett heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to back up two good starts against the Friars (930p)
The Big Question:
- Who would you guess is the worst defensive team in the league?
I’d have said the Astros before I looked it up, but it’s the Angels. The Angels! They’re -37 DRS, -16.1 UZR, -10.3 UZR/150 which are all 30th best in the league. That seems really crazy to me given some of the great defenders they have, but with their overall struggles, some must be leaking into the defensive side. Let’s look. I set the minimum innings to 30 at a position and looked at the leaderboard. Here it is:
I know defensive numbers don’t stabilize this early, but that’s just not what you want to see for a team that should be pretty good on defense.
The Morning Edition (May 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cliff Lee delivers the CGSO against the Marlins
- Wilson strong as the Angels thump the Mariners
- Granderson comes up a 3B short of the cycle, but Kuroda leaves early as the Yanks fall
- Liriano out duels Sharky at PNC
- Bautista homers twice and then hits a walk off extra inning single
- Gio and Bumgarner duel but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Nats
- The Reds make Harvey look human, win in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Only four games on the schedule that don’t involve the Tigers, here are your matchups: Jackson/Gomez, Gausman/Morrow, McAllister/Dempster, Blanton/Santana
- I’d tell you I was watching Gausman, but I can’t because I live in NC and we aren’t legally allowed to watch the Orioles or Nationals play under any circumstances
The Big Question:
- How do you spend rain delays? (I stare off into space until there is something worth watching again.)
I’ve written a good deal about guys near the top of the WAR leaderboard, but I’m going for it again because I noticed something as of this moment: four of the top six players on the list are the guys I consider to be the four best in the game. Longoria (1), Cabrera (2), Votto (3), Trout (6). Trout and Longoria are elite two way players while Cabrera and Votto are the best hitters in their respective leagues. It’s not often that your expectations line up with reality so well, but here we are.
The Morning Edition (May 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Trout hits for the cycle
- Leake strong as the Reds beat the Mets 4-0
- McClouth walks off against the Yanks
- Garza sharp in his season debut, but Snider slams the Cubs pen to give the Bucs the W
- Greinke gets roughed up over 4 innings in Milwaukee
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey versus Latos at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Gio and Bumgarner throw from the left side in SF (330p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is a 4th AL 3B trying to get involved in this race?
Last week I talked about how Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Manny Machado led the AL in WAR, but a new AL 3B has moved into the #4 spot: Josh Donaldson. As I write this, he’s hitting .315/.391/.530 with a 152 wRC+ an 2.1 WAR, which is 9th in MLB. He’s flashed solid potential before, but nothing quite like this. In 300+ previous big league at bats he was a below average walker and above average strikeout guy who didn’t hit for average of power. In the minors he had some reasonable success, but it wasn’t anything spectacular. Now in 2013, he’s crushing. His BABIP (.353) is elevated, but he’s shown a higher BABIP in various minor league stints so it’s not like it is guaranteed to regress dramatically. I left him out of my top 9 3B to start the year and I think I’m sticking with that, but for now, the best 3 players in the AL play 3B and one of them is Josh Donaldson.
The Morning Edition (May 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners blow two saves and the Indians only blow one in a wild one in Cleveland
- Dickey beats Odorizzi north of the border
- Hamels Ks 10 and walks none in a losing effort
- The White Sox get to Lester in Chicago
- Kershaw goes the distance, allows just one run against the Brewers
- Corbin dazzles at Coors with a CG, 10 Ks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza makes his season debut against the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb goes for the Rays in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Darvish welcomes the A’s to Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Wainwright comes to Petco (10p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Cain face off at the bay (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- When do we start to notice Partick Corbin?
As I write this, Patrick Corbin is plowing through the 7th inning in Colorado and hasn’t allowed a run and has surrendered just a single hit (He finished with a CG, 3 H, 1 R, 10 K line). Entering the night, he was 6-0, 53.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR and those numbers are going to get better. Granted, this level isn’t sustainable, but he’s pretty good and is throwing a gem in one of the hardest places to pitch. Also, Clayton Kershaw, just stop it. Another CG tonight.
The Morning Edition (May 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jordan Zimmermann gives up 1 ER in 8 innings…and loses…to the Padres
- Gattis and Simmons go back to back to back Medlen in his duel with Capuano
- Parra hits a leadoff homer and then McCarthy delivers a CGSO as the Dbacks beat the Fish 1-0
- Tampa Bay gets 6 runs in the 9th to beat the Orioles 10-6
- The Indians win on a walk off fielder’s choice (what?!)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces Masterson in Cleveland (1p Eastern)
- Dickey and CC try to regain Cy Young creds (1p Eastern)
- Matt Moore looks to complete the sweep in Baltimore (130p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are McCarthy’s peripherals finally lining up with the results?
I made a comment on Twitter last night that Carlos Gomez was impressively leading the league in WAR (2.7) and was 9th in the league in wRC+ (170) despite just a 3.9% walk rate. Since I wrote that, those numbers have fluctuated just a bit, but the idea holds up. So I was curious, who had the best low walk season in the last ten years? Since 2004, the best qualifying seasons for players who walked 5.0% of the time or less are:
5. Freddy Sanchez 2006 – 4.9% BB, 4.5 WAR
4. Brandon Phillips 2007 – 4.7% BB, 4.7 WAR
3. Carl Crawford 2005 – 3.9% BB, 4.8 WAR
2. Ichiro 2009 – 4.7% BB, 5.1 WAR
1. Adrian Beltre 2011 – 4.8% BB, 5.3 WAR
Each of those seasons feature a strong defensive effort and low K%, but if you’re curious the best <5% BB season since 2004 with a negative UZR belongs to Adam Jones (2012) who walked 4.8% of the time and posted a 4.4 WAR (7th overall). Also, apparently walking didn’t used to be as cool as it is today, because I then queried a search back to 1980 and Beltre’s 2011 season turned up to be 15th in the last 34 years. Kirby Puckett’s 1988 reigns with 3.9% BB and 7.1 WAR. I’m serious. He hit .356/.375/.545. That’s crazy. Puckett’s 1988 is the best <5.0% BB season, not just since 1980, but also since 1932.
The Morning Edition (May 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Upton slams the Braves past the Dodgers
- Goldschmidt’s 2 bombs back Cahill’s 8 inning gem
- Kuroda blanks the Jays over 8, wins 5-0
- Hellickson gives up 8 runs in 7.2 innings…and gets a win in a 12-10 affair over the O’s
- Kipnis walks off in extras over the M’s
- Phillies bullpen tries to spoil a nice outing by Lee, but the offense bails them out against the Reds
- Harvey twirls 7.2 strong innings and drives in the winning run against the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Quietly strong Zach McAllister faces the Mariners in an attempt to pad his stats (1p Eastern)
- Burnett gets the Astros at home, watch for Ks (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to follow his strong outing against the Marlins 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann faces the Padres at Petco (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do people still take pitcher wins seriously after Hellickson gave up 8 runs and still earned one on Friday?
If I gave you 5 guesses as to who baseball’s best hitter is so far (as of 11:21pm Friday night), would you get it? Miguel Cabrera might be your guess and that’s close, but he’s percentage points behind the leader. Maybe Upton? Or Longoria? Or Choo? All good guesses, but it’s actually Paul Goldschmidt. The Dbacks slugging first baseman has a nice season and a half to his name in the big leagues, but he’s taken a step forward so far this season. His plate discipline is improving and his power is better, while also buoyed by a little good luck. Right now his 185 wRC+ is a fraction of a point ahead of Cabrera and his .338/.421/.656 line is a thing of beauty.
The Morning Edition (May 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Choo gets 4 hits, 2 homers as the Reds beat the Fish
- Mariners crush the Yanks, Alberto Gonzalez pitches, Vernon Wells plays 2B
- Price leaves with an injury as Lester and the Sox roll over the Rays
- Greinke returns to the mound against the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright welcomes the Mets to St. Louis (130p Eastern)
- Cobb tries to last longer, but strikeout just as many against the Sox (7p Eastern)
- Verlander and Darvish (8p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- With the injury to Price, will my prediction that Moore will out-pitch him come true?
The Rays are being the Rays. After a rough start they are back in the thick of the division race and they are doing it with…offense? They have the 3rd best offense by wRC+ (109) and the 23rd best pitching by WAR. Cobb (3.76 FIP), Price (4.00 FIP), and Moore (4.41 FIP) are a formidable top 3, but they aren’t really pitching like aces even if they have the stuff. They’re playing good defense and hitting well. No matter what people say about the Rays, always expect them to play better than the expectations. Just always.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hicks hits 2 HR and robs one for good measure as Twins beat the White Sox
- Masterson delivers a CGSO as the Tribe split a DH with the Yanks
- Upton mashes in his return to Arizona
- Harper injured as the Nats roll
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix and CC face off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore welcomes the Red Sox to the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Corbin tries to quiet the Braves in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Nats in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you think Dbacks fans liked Upton’s homecoming?
Here are the four best teams by wRC+ as of 12:19am (May 14): Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, Rays. The Tigers certainly fit, but I don’t know how many people would have said the Indians, Sox, and Rays were top level offenses when the seasons started. The Marlins and White Sox are the worst, but that Nationals are 28th, which is exactly how we all saw it six weeks ago. I’m a big fan of the Anthony Rizzo extension because I think he’s going to be a star and he’s about to be paid like less than $7 million AAV during his prime. In the last calendar year, he’s played 124 games in the big leagues and has 24 HR and a .283/.345/.485 line good for 124 wRC+. Among players below Rizzo by wRC+ over the last year are: A-Gon, Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Carlos Gonzalez. Rizzo is good and now he is cheap.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
New English D 